scholarly journals Estimate of the Predictability of Boreal Summer and Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations from Observations

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
pp. 2421-2438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractTropical intraseasonal variability (TISV) shows two dominant modes: the boreal winter Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The two modes differ in intensity, frequency, and movement, thereby presumably indicating different predictabilities. This paper investigates differences in the predictability limits of the BSISO and the boreal winter MJO based on observational data. The results show that the potential predictability limit of the BSISO obtained from bandpass-filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), 850-hPa winds, and 200-hPa velocity potential is close to 5 weeks, comparable to that of the boreal winter MJO. Despite the similarity between the potential predictability limits of the BSISO and MJO, the spatial distribution of the potential predictability limit of the TISV during summer is very different from that during winter. During summer, the limit is relatively low over regions where the TISV is most active, whereas it is relatively high over the North Pacific, North Atlantic, southern Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of the limit during winter is approximately the opposite of that during summer. For strong phases of ISO convection, the initial error of the BSISO shows a more rapid growth than that of the MJO. The error growth is rapid when the BSISO and MJO enter the decaying phase (when ISO signals are weak), whereas it is slow when convection anomalies of the BSISO and MJO are located in upstream regions (when ISO signals are strong).

scholarly journals A Precipitation-Based Index for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 805-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

AbstractCharacteristic patterns of precipitation-associated tropical intraseasonal oscillations, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), are identified using local empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data as a function of the day of the year. The explained variances of the EOF analysis show two peaks across the year: one in the middle of the boreal winter corresponding to the MJO and the other in the middle of summer corresponding to the BSISO. Comparing the fractional variance indicates that the BSISO is more coherent than the MJO during the TRMM period. Similar EOF analyses with the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) confirm this result and indicate that the BSISO is less coherent before the TRMM era (1979–98). In contrast, the MJO exhibits much less decadal variability. A precipitation-based index for tropical intraseasonal oscillation (PII) is derived by projecting bandpass-filtered precipitation anomalies to the two leading EOFs as a function of day of the year. A real-time version that approximates the PII is further developed using precipitation anomalies without any bandpass filtering. It is further shown that this real-time PII index may be used to diagnose precipitation in the subseasonal forecasts.

scholarly journals Relative Roles of Background Moisture and Vertical Shear in Regulating Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 7009-7025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Deng ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations

Abstract The interannual variability of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is investigated using observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim data for the period of 1980–2012. It is found that the interannual variability of BSISO intensity is much stronger in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) than the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A BSISO intensity index is defined based on a multivariate EOF analysis in TWP. It is found that strong BSISO years are associated with El Niño–like sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific, anomalous easterly shear, and enhanced background moisture condition in the region. Using a 2.5-layer atmospheric model with a specified idealized background mean state, the authors further examine the relative roles of background moisture and vertical shear fields in modulating the BSISO intensity. Sensitivity numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture change is most important in regulating the BSISO intensity, whereas the background vertical shear change also plays a role.

scholarly journals The Impact of Air–Sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5870-5886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract This study investigates whether air–sea interactions contribute to differences in the predictability of the boreal winter tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) using the NCEP operational climate model. A series of coupled and uncoupled, “perfect” model predictability experiments are performed for 10 strong model intraseasonal events. The uncoupled experiments are forced by prescribed SST containing different types of variability. These experiments are specifically designed to be directly comparable to actual forecasts. Predictability estimates are calculated using three metrics, including one that does not require the use of time filtering. The estimates are compared between these experiments to determine the impact of coupled air–sea interactions on the predictability of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation and the sensitivity of the potential predictability estimates to the different SST forcings. Results from all three metrics are surprisingly similar. They indicate that predictability estimates are longest for precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) when the ensemble mean from the coupled model is used. Most importantly, the experiments that contain intraseasonally varying SST consistently predict the control events better than those that do not for precipitation, OLR, 200-hPa zonal wind, and 850-hPa zonal wind after the first 10 days. The uncoupled model is able to predict the TISO with similar skill to that of the coupled model, provided that an SST forecast that includes these intraseasonal variations is used to force the model. This indicates that the intraseasonally varying SSTs are a key factor for increased predictability and presumably better prediction of the TISO.

Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific. Part II: Apparent Heat and Moisture Sources and Eddy Momentum Transport*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 942-961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pang-Chi Hsu ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Momentum Transport ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The North ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations

Abstract The interactions between the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale variability (SSV) are investigated by diagnosing the atmospheric apparent heat source (Q1), apparent moisture sink (Q2), and eddy momentum transport. It is found that the synoptic Q1 and Q2 heating (cooling) anomalies are in phase with cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity disturbances, aligned in a southeast–northwest-oriented wave train pattern over the western North Pacific (WNP). The wave train is well organized and strengthened (loosely organized and weakened) during the ISO active (suppressed) phase. The nonlinearly rectified Q1 and Q2 fields due to the eddy–mean flow interaction account for 10%–30% of the total intraseasonal Q1 and Q2 variabilities over the WNP. During the ISO active (suppressed) phase, the nonlinearly rectified intraseasonal Q1 and Q2 heating (cooling) appear to the northwest of the ISO enhanced (suppressed) convection center, favoring the northwestward propagation of the ISO. A diagnosis of the zonal momentum budget shows that the eddy momentum flux convergence forces an intraseasonal westerly (easterly) tendency to the north of the ISO westerly (easterly) center during the ISO active (suppressed) phase. As a result, the eddy momentum transport may contribute to the northward propagation of the boreal summer ISO over the WNP.

scholarly journals Monitoring and Predicting the Intraseasonal Variability of the East Asian–Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
pp. 1124-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Northward Propagation

Abstract In this study, a new index is defined to capture the prominent northward propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in boreal summer in the East Asian and western North Pacific (EAWNP) region. It is based on the first two modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the combined fields of daily anomalies of zonally averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850) in the EAWNP region. These two EOFs are well separated from the rest of the modes, and their principal components (PCs) capture the intraseasonal variability. They are nearly in quadrature in both space and time and their combination reasonably well represents the northward propagation of the ISO. As no future information beyond the current date is required as in conventional time filtering, this ISO index can be used in real-time applications. This index is applied to the output of the 24-yr historical hindcast experiment using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Environment Canada to evaluate the forecast skill of the ISO of the EAWNP summer monsoon.

scholarly journals Temporal–Spatial Distribution of Thin Moist Layers in the Midtroposphere over the Tropical Eastern Pacific

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5102-5114
Author(s):  
Shigenori Otsuka ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Intertropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
The Vertical Distribution

Abstract The temporal–spatial distribution of thin moist layers in the midtroposphere over the tropical eastern Pacific is studied by data analyses of radiosonde soundings and downscaling numerical experiments with a regional model. Radiosonde soundings at San Cristóbal, Galápagos, show frequent existence of thin moist layers between 2 and 10 km in altitude, with a local minimum at 7–8 km. The downscaling experiments with global objective analyses are completed for 2005–06, September and December of 1999–2004, and March of 2000–04. The vertical distribution of thin moist layers has three local maxima at 5, 10, and 16 km, where bimodality of the frequency distribution of water vapor is evident. Between 4 and 7 km, an annual variation is dominant in the occurrence ratio of thin moist layers, which tend to appear in nonconvective regions. In boreal winter, the layers appear to the north of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), whereas in boreal summer the layers appear in the equator-side of the ITCZ. Interannual variations of the appearance of thin moist layers are also studied in 1999–2006, based on the experiments for particular months (March, September, and December). The occurrence ratio is generally high in December and March and low in September. In La Niña years, the annual variation is smaller than that in El Niño years; the occurrence ratio is higher in boreal summer to the south of the ITCZ.

scholarly journals QBO Influence on MJO Amplitude over the Maritime Continent: Physical Mechanisms and Seasonality

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (1) ◽  
pp. 389-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey R. Densmore ◽  
Elizabeth R. Sanabia ◽  
Bradford S. Barrett
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Convective Envelope

AbstractThe quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is stratified by stratospheric zonal wind direction and height into four phase pairs [easterly midstratospheric winds (QBOEM), easterly lower-stratospheric winds, westerly midstratospheric winds (QBOWM), and westerly lower-stratospheric winds] using an empirical orthogonal function analysis of daily stratospheric (100–10 hPa) zonal wind data during 1980–2017. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events in which the MJO convective envelope moved eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) during 1980–2017 are identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) MJO index (OMI). Comparison of RMM amplitudes by the QBO phase pair over the MC (RMM phases 4 and 5) reveals that boreal winter MJO events have the strongest amplitudes during QBOEM and the weakest amplitudes during QBOWM, which is consistent with QBO-driven differences in upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric (UTLS) static stability. Additionally, boreal winter RMM events over the MC strengthen during QBOEM and weaken during QBOWM. In the OMI, those amplitude changes generally shift eastward to the eastern MC and western Pacific Ocean, which may result from differences in RMM and OMI index methodologies. During boreal summer, as the northeastward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) becomes the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability, these relationships are reversed. Zonal differences in UTLS stability anomalies are consistent with amplitude changes of eastward-propagating MJO events across the MC during boreal winter, and meridional stability differences are consistent with amplitude changes of northeastward-propagating BSISO events during boreal summer. Results remain consistent when stratifying by neutral ENSO phase.

scholarly journals The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 655-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Yanase ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. The surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific at the last glacial maximum has been investigated using the outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in PMIP2 database. In boreal summer, the weakening of high pressure over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are analyzed in most models. The reduced moisture transport seems to result in the less precipitation over East Asia. In boreal winter, the intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the upper-level jet are analyzed in most models. Some of these results are consistent with geological records such as pollen, lake status and dust transport.

scholarly journals Mechanisms for a remote response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol in boreal winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 9081-9095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura J. Wilcox ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Anna Lewinschal ◽  
Massimo Bollasina ◽  
Annica M. L. Ekman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Far Field ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Local Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract. Asian emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors have increased rapidly since 1980, with half of the increase since the pre-industrial era occurring in this period. Transient experiments with the HadGEM3-GC2 coupled model were designed to isolate the impact of Asian anthropogenic aerosols on global climate in boreal winter. It is found that this increase has resulted in local circulation changes, which in turn have driven decreases in precipitation over China, alongside an intensification of the offshore monsoon flow. No large temperature changes are seen over China. Over India, the opposite response is found, with decreasing temperatures and increasing precipitation. The dominant feature of the local circulation changes is an increase in low-level convergence, ascent, and precipitation over the Maritime Continent, which forms part of a tropical Pacific-wide La Niña-like response. HadGEM3-GC2 also simulates pronounced far-field responses. A decreased meridional temperature gradient in the North Pacific leads to a positive Pacific–North American circulation pattern, with associated temperature anomalies over the North Pacific and North America. Anomalous northeasterly flow over northeast Europe drives advection of cold air into central and western Europe, causing cooling in this region. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic causes drying over western Europe. Using a steady-state primitive equation model, LUMA, we demonstrate that these far-field midlatitude responses arise primarily as a result of Rossby waves generated over China, rather than in the equatorial Pacific.

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