scholarly journals The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Vitart ◽  
C. Ardilouze ◽  
A. Bonet ◽  
A. Brookshaw ◽  
M. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Preliminary Study

Abstract Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days). The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability.” In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of subseasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database also represents an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multimodel combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over the islands of Vanuatu 2–3 weeks before Tropical Cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015.

scholarly journals Medium-Range, Monthly, and Seasonal Prediction for Europe and the Use of Forecast Information

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (23) ◽  
pp. 6025-6046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. Rodwell ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Model Potential ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
General Level ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Operational probabilistic (ensemble) forecasts made at ECMWF during the European summer heat wave of 2003 indicate significant skill on medium (3–10 day) and monthly (10–30 day) time scales. A more general “unified” analysis of many medium-range, monthly, and seasonal forecasts confirms a high degree of probabilistic forecast skill for European temperatures over the first month. The unified analysis also identifies seasonal predictability for Europe, which is not yet realized in seasonal forecasts. Interestingly, the initial atmospheric state appears to be important even for month 2 of a coupled forecast. Seasonal coupled model forecasts capture the general level of observed European deterministic predictability associated with the persistence of anomalies. A review is made of the possibilities to improve seasonal forecasts. This includes multimodel and probabilistic techniques and the potential for “windows of opportunity” where better representation of the effects of boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature and soil moisture) may improve forecasts. “Perfect coupled model” potential predictability estimates are sensitive to the coupled model used and so it is not yet possible to estimate ultimate levels of seasonal predictability. The impact of forecast information on different users with different mitigation strategies (i.e., ways of coping with a weather or climate event) is investigated. The importance of using forecast information to reduce volatility as well as reducing the expected expense is highlighted. The possibility that weather forecasts can affect the cost of mitigating actions is considered. The simplified analysis leads to different conclusions about the usefulness of forecasts that could guide decisions about the development of “end-to-end” (forecast-to-user decision) systems.

scholarly journals Remediating Viking Origins: Genetic Code as Archival Memory of the Remote Past

Sociology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Scully ◽  
Turi King ◽  
Steven D Brown
Keyword(s):  
Research Programme ◽  
Genetic Evidence ◽  
Collective Memories ◽  
Identity Narratives ◽  
Initial Questionnaire ◽  
Dna Collection ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Usable Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Remote Past

This article introduces some early data from the Leverhulme Trust-funded research programme, ‘The Impact of the Diasporas on the Making of Britain: evidence, memories, inventions’. One of the interdisciplinary foci of the programme, which incorporates insights from genetics, history, archaeology, linguistics and social psychology, is to investigate how genetic evidence of ancestry is incorporated into identity narratives. In particular, we investigate how ‘applied genetic history’ shapes individual and familial narratives, which are then situated within macro-narratives of the nation and collective memories of immigration and indigenism. It is argued that the construction of genetic evidence as a ‘gold standard’ about ‘where you really come from’ involves a remediation of cultural and archival memory, in the construction of a ‘usable past’. This article is based on initial questionnaire data from a preliminary study of those attending DNA collection sessions in northern England. It presents some early indicators of the perceived importance of being of Viking descent among participants, notes some emerging patterns and considers the implications for contemporary debates on migration, belonging and local and national identity.

The upper Paleozoic (Pennsylvanian-Permian) ammonoid Emilites

1988 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Royal H. Mapes ◽  
Darwin R. Boardman
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
North America ◽  
Species Level ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Early Permian ◽  
Generic Level ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Upper Paleozoic ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Permian Ammonoid

Four species of Emilites are now known; these are E. incertus (Böse), E. plummeri Ruzhencev, E. brownwoodi n. sp., and E. bennisoni n. sp. Representatives of this genus may occur as early as Middle Pennsylvanian in North America to as late as Early Permian in the Soviet Union. All described taxa are from North America except E. plummeri, which is from the Soviet Union. Because Emilites is extremely rare in upper Paleozoic ammonoid assemblages, generic and species level phylogenetic relationships are poorly understood. Emilites is not considered to be a good generic-level zone indicator due to its relatively long time range and its rarity.

Turn-on and Charge Build-up Dynamics in Polymer Field Effect Transistors

2005 ◽  
Vol 871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohai Roichman ◽  
Nir Tessler
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Field Effect ◽  
Field Effect Transistors ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Gate Bias ◽  
Current Dependence ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Source Current ◽  
Short Time

AbstractTurn-on dynamics of polymer field effect transistors were examined experimentally over a wide timescale. We found that the source current dependence on time following switch on of the gate bias exhibits a power law at the short time range, and an exponential decay at the intermediate to long time range. We demonstrate that the transistor dynamic behavior is governed by the channel charge build-up, and can be described accurately by a simple capacitor-resistor distributed line model.

Relieving pain on prehospital stage – preliminary study

Ból ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Kamil Krzyżanowski ◽  
Daniel Ślęzak ◽  
Andrzej Basiński ◽  
Przemysław Żuratyński ◽  
Paulina Buca
Keyword(s):  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Professional Group ◽  
Medical Documentation ◽  
Medical Procedures ◽  
National Medical ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Medical Teams ◽  
Term Benefit

In last time major changes in the system of National Medical Rescue (Państwowe Ratownictwo Medyczne, PRM) occurred. Changes between the others concerned increasing permissions of medical rescuers. For a long time we discussed wide spectrum of actions and autonomy of this professional group and in latest term benefit package of this group was additionally expanded. Is such a varied list of medical procedures, in it pharmacotherapy, is a proper growth of system is subject at issue. Authors of the article decided to look into selected fragments of actions of the system of Medical Rescue and analyze one of import_ant elements of departure team actions, namely relieving pain of injured after the injury. Asking following questions is justified: Is increasing the pool of permissions caused by depleting previous therapeutical possibilities, or were there other reasons to add changes; Is releasing pain on prehospital level enough? Should the attention be focused on this subject and possibly implement repair procedures and educative? To define issues above, medical documentation of trustees of medical teams on the area of Pomeranian Voivodeship were analyzed. Among all provided documents, the ones in which reason of the call was injury were chosen. Tens of thousands cards with different types of injuries were obtained, insulated, multiple and generalized injuries. In how many cases, the procedure of pain relieving were applied was examined and what medicines were used the most. Unfortunately as seen on the presented statistics, only small percentage of cases there were tries of decreasing complaints of injured despite the wide amount available resources. These preliminary studies show the necessity of inputting repair procedures in terms of relieving the pain of injured after injuries by departure teams of Medical Rescue.

Preliminary Study on Long-Term Flooding After the Tsunami

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 741-747
Author(s):  
Toshitaka Baba ◽  
Junichi Taniguchi ◽  
Noriko Kusunoki ◽  
Manabu Miyoshi ◽  
Hiroshi Aki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Flow Modeling ◽  
Tsunami Waveforms ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Nankai Earthquake

After the Nankai earthquake in 1946, the resultant flooding lasted for a long time, because seawater remained on land after the tsunami in Kochi city. Large-scale flooding occurred in Ishinomaki city immediately after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Long-term flooding may hamper disaster responses such as rescue and recovery activities. This paper studied the risks of long-term flooding after the Nankai earthquake in Tokushima city based on a paleographical survey and numerical analysis. The paleographical survey identified statements such as “seawater sometimes flowed onto the land at the full tide,” suggesting occurrences of long-term flooding after previous Nankai earthquakes. The numerical analysis separately calculated values inside and outside the levee. The tsunami waveforms outside the analysis area obtained by tsunami numerical simulation was used as the boundary condition of the inland flow modeling, that is water was introduced inside the levee when the tsunami water level exceeded the upper end of the levee. The two layers of ground surface and the drain were defined to calculate the flow, including water exchange between the two layers, and the water was drained forcefully outside the levee using a drainage pump. The possibility of long-term flooding in the analysis area is suggested when a large-scale earthquake occurs in the Nankai trough.

scholarly journals The response of the equatorial tropospheric ozone to the Madden–Julian Oscillation in TES satellite observations and CAM-chem model simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 11775-11790 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Sun ◽  
P. Hess ◽  
B. Tian
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Dominant Form ◽  
Total Column Ozone

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant form of the atmospheric intra-seasonal oscillation, manifested by slow eastward movement (about 5 m s−1) of tropical deep convection. This study investigates the MJO's impact on equatorial tropospheric ozone (10° N–10° S) in satellite observations and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. For the satellite observations, we analyze the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) level-2 ozone profile data for the period of January 2004 to June 2009. For the CTM simulations, we run the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) driven by the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5)-analyzed meteorological fields for the same data period as the TES measurements. Our analysis indicates that the behavior of the total tropospheric column (TTC) ozone at the intra-seasonal timescale is different from that of the total column ozone, with the signal in the equatorial region comparable with that in the subtropics. The model-simulated and satellite-measured ozone anomalies agree in their general pattern and amplitude when examined in the vertical cross section (the average spatial correlation coefficient among the eight phases is 0.63), with an eastward propagation signature at a similar phase speed as the convective anomalies (5 m s−1). The model ozone anomalies on the intra-seasonal timescale are about 5 times larger when lightning emissions of NOx are included in the simulation than when they are not. Nevertheless, large-scale advection is the primary driving force for the ozone anomalies associated with the MJO. The variability related to the MJO for ozone reaches up to 47% of the total variability (ranging from daily to interannual), indicating that the MJO should be accounted for in simulating ozone perturbations in the tropics.

scholarly journals Aerothermodynamic Shape Optimization for Re-entry Capsule Using Genetic Algorithms

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 71-79
Author(s):  
Ionut BUNESCU ◽  
Mihai-Victor PRICOP ◽  
Mihaita Gilbert STOICAN ◽  
Adrian Gheorghe DINA
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Genetic Algorithms ◽  
Thermal Protection ◽  
Outer Space ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Maximum Heat ◽  
Maximum Heat Flux ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
New Generation

Space hasn’t been for a long time now the final frontier, in the last years more and more spaceships have accessed outer space for different missions, some of them being required to return. The actual and main task of researchers is to find an optimal geometry for new generation of spacecraft which must be reusable and fit the imposed loads (heat flux, pressure, acceleration). The purpose of this paper is to optimize the design of a re-entry capsule configuration, in order to minimize the maximum heat flux on the thermal protection system and to obtain a wanted imposed drag coefficient. For the optimization process we use genetic algorithms and for the solving process, local inclination methods. Even if the latter are low-fidelity methods and do not offer satisfying results on all conditions, we consider them to be good enough for a preliminary study of an optimal design. Thus, this paper purpose is to describe the procedure to obtain an optimal configuration which can be better analyzed with high-fidelity methods.

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