An Investigation of a Commercial Aircraft Encounter with Severe Clear-Air Turbulence over Western Greenland

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. Sharman ◽  
J. D. Doyle ◽  
M. A. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Commercial Aircraft ◽  
Mountain Wave ◽  
Air Turbulence ◽  
Lee Waves ◽  
Horizontal Grid

AbstractThis study presents digital flight data recorder (DFDR) analyses and high-resolution numerical simulations relevant to a severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) encounter over western Greenland by a Boeing 777 aircraft at 10-km elevation at 1305 UTC 25 May 2010. The environmental flow was dominated by an extratropical cyclone to the southeast of the Greenland tip, resulting in easterly flow at all levels. The results of the analyses indicate that the CAT encounter was related to mountain-wave breaking on the western lee (downslope) of the Greenland plateau. The simulations were not of especially high resolution (5-km horizontal grid spacing) by today’s standards, yet the simulation results do produce large-amplitude lee waves and overturning in good agreement with the encounter location as indicated by the DFDR. The success of this and other simulations in reproducing mountain-wave turbulence (MWT) events suggests that operational implementation of high-resolution nonhydrostatic simulation models, possibly an ensemble of models, over MWT-prone areas could produce more reliable forecasts of MWT than are currently available using gravity-wave-drag or MWT-postprocessing algorithms derived from global weather prediction models of relatively coarse scale.

scholarly journals Ensemble Hail Prediction for the Storms of 10 May 2010 in South-Central Oklahoma Using Single- and Double-Moment Microphysical Schemes

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4911-4936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Labriola ◽  
Nathan Snook ◽  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Bryan Putnam ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
South Central ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Severe Weather Event ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Explicit prediction of hail using numerical weather prediction models remains a significant challenge; microphysical uncertainties and errors are a significant contributor to this challenge. This study assesses the ability of storm-scale ensemble forecasts using single-moment Lin or double-moment Milbrandt and Yau microphysical schemes in predicting hail during a severe weather event over south-central Oklahoma on 10 May 2010. Radar and surface observations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) at 5-min intervals. Three sets of ensemble forecasts, launched at 15-min intervals, are then produced from EnKF analyses at times ranging from 30 min prior to the first observed hail to the time of the first observed hail. Forty ensemble members are run at 500-m horizontal grid spacing in both EnKF assimilation cycles and subsequent forecasts. Hail forecasts are verified using radar-derived products including information from single- and dual-polarization radar data: maximum estimated size of hail (MESH), hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) output, and hail size discrimination algorithm (HSDA) output. Resulting hail forecasts show at most marginal skill, with the level of skill dependent on the forecast initialization time and microphysical scheme used. Forecasts using the double-moment scheme predict many small hailstones aloft, while the single-moment members predict larger hailstones. Near the surface, double-moment members predict larger hailstone sizes than their single-member counterparts. Hail in the forecasts is found to melt too quickly near the surface for members using either of the microphysics schemes examined. Analysis of microphysical budgets in both schemes indicates that both schemes suboptimally represent hail processes, adversely impacting the skill of surface hail forecasts.

scholarly journals Validation of the First Years of GPM Operation over Cyprus

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrianos Retalis ◽  
Dimitris Katsanos ◽  
Filippos Tymvios ◽  
Silas Michaelides
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
First Results ◽  
Global Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Global Precipitation

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) high-resolution product is validated against rain gauges over the island of Cyprus for a three-year period, starting from April 2014. The precipitation estimates are available in both high temporal (half hourly) and spatial (10 km) resolution and combine data from all passive microwave instruments in the GPM constellation. The comparison performed is twofold: first the GPM data are compared with the precipitation measurements on a monthly basis and then the comparison focuses on extreme events, recorded throughout the first 3 years of GPM’s operation. The validation is based on ground data from a dense and reliable network of rain gauges, also available in high temporal (hourly) resolution. The first results show very good correlation regarding monthly values; however, the correspondence of GPM in extreme precipitation varies from “no correlation” to “high correlation”, depending on case. This study aims to verify the GPM rain estimates, since such a high-resolution dataset has numerous applications, including the assimilation in numerical weather prediction models and the study of flash floods with hydrological models.

scholarly journals A Novel Approach for Satellite-Based Turbulence Nowcasting for Aviation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 2255
Author(s):  
Axel Barleben ◽  
Stéphane Haussler ◽  
Richard Müller ◽  
Matthias Jerg
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Air Turbulence ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Height Assignment ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Assignment Scheme

The predictability of aviation turbulence is influenced by energy-intensive flow patterns that are significantly smaller than the horizontal grid scale of current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The parameterization of these subgrid scale (SGS) processes is possible by means of an additional prognostic equation for the temporal change of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), whereby scale transfer terms are used. This turbulence scheme has been applied operationally for 5 years in the NWP model ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic). The most important of the source terms parameterizes the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, better known as clear air turbulence. This shear term was subjected to a nowcasting technique, is calculated with satellite data, and shifted forward in time using motion based on optical flow estimates and atmospheric motion vector (AMV). The nowcasts include turbulence altitude as determined by an adapted height assignment scheme presented here. The case studies illustrate that the novel approach for satellite-based turbulence nowcasting is a supplement to the NWP models.

scholarly journals Long-range transport of terrain-induced turbulence from high-resolution numerical simulations

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 11793-11805 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Katurji ◽  
S. Zhong ◽  
P. Zawar-Reza
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Aspect Ratio ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Measurement Technology ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. Over complex terrain, an important question is how various topographic features may generate or alter wind turbulence and how far the influence can be extended downstream. Current measurement technology limits the capability in providing a long-range snapshot of turbulence as atmospheric eddies travel over terrain, interact with each other, change their productive and dissipative properties, and are then observed tens of kilometers downstream of their source. In this study, we investigate through high-resolution numerical simulations the atmospheric transport of terrain-generated turbulence in an atmosphere that is neutrally stratified. The simulations are two-dimensional with an isotropic spatial resolution of 15 m and run to a quasi-steady state. They are designed in such a way to allow an examination of the effects of a bell-shaped experimental hill with varying height and aspect ratio on turbulence properties generated by another hill 20 km upstream. Averaged fields of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) imply that terrain could have a large influence on velocity perturbations at least 30H (H is the terrain height) upstream and downstream of the terrain, with the largest effect happening in the area of the largest pressure perturbations. The results also show that downstream of the terrain the TKE fields are sensitive to the terrain's aspect ratio with larger enhancement in turbulence by higher aspect ratio, while upstream there is a suppression of turbulence that does not appear to be sensitive to the terrain aspect ratio. Instantaneous vorticity fields shows very detailed flow structures that resemble a multitude of eddy scales dynamically interacting while shearing oppositely paired vortices. The knowledge of the turbulence production and modifications by topography from these high-resolution simulations can be helpful in understanding long-range terrain-induced turbulence and improving turbulence parameterizations used in lower resolution weather prediction models.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Simulations of Lee Waves and Downslope Winds over the Sierra Nevada during T-REX IOP 6

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (7) ◽  
pp. 1333-1352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Sheridan ◽  
Simon Vosper
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Owens Valley ◽  
Downslope Winds ◽  
Lee Waves ◽  
Rotor Experiment ◽  
Intensive Observation

AbstractThe downslope windstorm during intensive observation period (IOP) 6 was the most severe that was detected during the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX) in Owens Valley in the Sierra Nevada of California. Cross sections of vertical motion in the form of a composite constructed from aircraft data spanning the depth of the troposphere are used to link the winds experienced at the surface to the changing structure of the mountain-wave field aloft. Detailed analysis of other observations allows the role played by a passing occluded front, associated with the rapid intensification (and subsequent cessation) of the windstorm, to be studied. High-resolution, nested modeling using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is used to study qualitative aspects of the flow and the influence of the front, and this modeling suggests that accurate forecasting of the timing and position of both the front and strong mountaintop winds is crucial to capture the wave dynamics and accompanying windstorm. Meanwhile, far ahead of the front, simulated downslope winds are shallow and foehnlike, driven by the thermal contrast between the upstream and valley air mass. The study also highlights the difficulties of capturing the detailed interaction of weather systems with large and complex orography in numerical weather prediction.

scholarly journals The role of urban boundary layer investigated by high resolution models and ground based observations in Rome area: a step for understanding parameterizations potentialities

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 5297-5344
Author(s):  
E. Pichelli ◽  
R. Ferretti ◽  
M. Cacciani ◽  
A. M. Siani ◽  
V. Ciardini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Sonic Anemometer ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The urban forcing on thermo-dynamical conditions can largely influences local evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Urban heat storage can produce noteworthy mesoscale perturbations of the lower atmosphere. The new generations of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWP) is nowadays largely applied also to urban areas. It is therefore critical to reproduce correctly the urban forcing which turns in variations of wind, temperature and water vapor content of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). WRF-ARW, a new model generation, has been used to reproduce the circulation in the urban area of Rome. A sensitivity study is performed using different PBL and surface schemes. The significant role of the surface forcing in the PBL evolution has been verified by comparing model results with observations coming from many instruments (LiDAR, SODAR, sonic anemometer and surface stations). The crucial role of a correct urban representation has been demonstrated by testing the impact of different urban canopy models (UCM) on the forecast. Only one of three meteorological events studied will be presented, chosen as statistically relevant for the area of interest. The WRF-ARW model shows a tendency to overestimate vertical transmission of horizontal momentum from upper levels to low atmosphere, that is partially corrected by local PBL scheme coupled with an advanced UCM. Depending on background meteorological scenario, WRF-ARW shows an opposite behavior in correctly representing canopy layer and upper levels when local and non local PBL are compared. Moreover a tendency of the model in largely underestimating vertical motions has been verified.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of MÉRA, a High-Resolution Mesoscale Regional Reanalysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 2179-2196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eoin Whelan ◽  
Emily Gleeson ◽  
John Hanley
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Horizontal Grid ◽  
Very High

AbstractMet Éireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, has generated a very high resolution (2.5-km horizontal grid) regional climate reanalysis for Ireland called the Met Éireann Reanalysis (MÉRA). MÉRA spans the period from 1981 to 2015 and was produced using the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system. This article includes comparisons with the ERA-Interim and Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Reanalyses (UERRA) datasets, analysis of data assimilation outputs, precipitation comparisons, and a focus on extremes of wind and rainfall. The comparisons with the reanalysis datasets show that MÉRA provides a high-quality reconstruction of recent Irish climate and benefits from the use of a very high resolution grid, in particular in relation to wind and precipitation extremes.

Improving Numerical Weather Prediction-Based Near-Cloud Aviation Turbulence Forecasts by Diagnosing Convective Gravity Wave Breaking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soo-Hyun Kim ◽  
Hye-Yeong Chun ◽  
Dan-Bi Lee ◽  
Jung-Hoon Kim ◽  
Robert D. Sharman
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Air Turbulence ◽  
One Year ◽  
Nwp Model

AbstractBased on a convective gravity wave drag parameterization scheme in a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, previously proposed near-cloud turbulence (NCT) diagnostics for better detecting turbulence near convection are tested and evaluated by using global in situ flight data and outputs from operational global NWP model of the Korea Meteorological Administration for one year (from December 2016 to November 2017). For comparison, eleven widely used clear air turbulence (CAT) diagnostics currently used in operational NWP-based aviation turbulence forecasting systems are separately computed. For selected cases, NCT diagnostics predict more accurately localized turbulence events over convective regions with better intensity, which is clearly distinguished from the turbulence areas diagnosed by conventional CAT diagnostics that they mostly failed to forecast with broad areas and low magnitudes. Although overall performance of NCT diagnostics for whole one year is lower than conventional CAT diagnostics due to the fact that NCT diagnostics exclusively focus on the isolated NCT events, adding the NCT diagnostics to CAT diagnostics improves the performance of aviation turbulence forecasting. Especially in the summertime, performance in terms of an area under the curve (AUC) based on probability of detection statistics is the best (AUC = 0.837 with a 4% increase, compared to conventional CAT forecasts) when the mean of all CAT and NCT diagnostics is used, while performance in terms of root mean square error is the best when the maximum among combined CAT and single NCT diagnostic is used. This implies that including NCT diagnostics to currently used NWP-based aviation turbulence forecasting systems should be beneficial for safety of air travel.

Evaluating Convective Initiation in High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models Using GOES-16 Infrared Brightness Temperatures

2021 ◽  
Vol 149 (4) ◽  
pp. 1153-1172
Author(s):  
David S. Henderson ◽  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
John R. Mecikalski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Cloud Water ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Cloud Characteristics ◽  
Verification Methods

AbstractThe evolution of model-based cloud-top brightness temperatures (BT) associated with convective initiation (CI) is assessed for three bulk cloud microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Using a composite-based analysis, cloud objects derived from high-resolution (500 m) model simulations are compared to 5-min GOES-16 imagery for a case study day located near the Alabama–Mississippi border. Observed and simulated cloud characteristics for clouds reaching CI are examined by utilizing infrared BTs commonly used in satellite-based CI nowcasting methods. The results demonstrate the ability of object-based verification methods with satellite observations to evaluate the evolution of model cloud characteristics, and the BT comparison provides insight into a known issue of model simulations producing too many convective cells reaching CI. The timing of CI from the different microphysical schemes is dependent on the production of ice in the upper levels of the cloud, which typically occurs near the time of maximum cloud growth. In particular, large differences in precipitation formation drive differences in the amount of cloud water able to reach upper layers of the cloud, which impacts cloud-top glaciation. Larger cloud mixing ratios are found in clouds with sustained growth leading to more cloud water lofted to the upper levels of the cloud and the formation of ice. Clouds unable to sustain growth lack the necessary cloud water needed to form ice and grow into cumulonimbus. Clouds with slower growth rates display similar BT trends as clouds exhibiting growth, which suggests that forecasting CI using geostationary satellites might require additional information beyond those derived at cloud top.

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