Future Changes in Incident Surface Solar Radiation and Contributing Factors in India in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

AbstractTo support the planning of future solar energy production in India, forthcoming changes in incoming surface solar radiation and the main physical factors contributing to the change were inferred from simulations performed with 27 global CMIP5 climate models. According to the multimodel-mean response, radiation diminishes by 0.5%–4% by the period 2030–59 (relative to 1971–2000), in tandem with strengthening aerosol and water vapor dimming. The largest reduction is anticipated for northern India. The evolution of incident radiation in the mid- and late twenty-first century depends substantially on the emission scenario. According to the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, solar radiation would gradually recover close to the level that prevailed in the late twentieth century. This results from the peaking of aerosol loading before midcentury while the water vapor content continuously increases somewhat. Conversely, under RCP8.5, incident radiation would still decline, although more slowly than during the early century. This coincides with a substantial increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a modest decrease in aerosol forcing. In cloud forcing, multimodel-mean changes are minor, but divergence among the model simulations is substantial. Moreover, cloud forcing proved to be the factor that correlates most strongly with intermodel differences in the solar radiation response. Multimodel-mean changes in solar radiation are small and would not crucially affect the conditions of solar energy production. Nevertheless, some individual models simulate far more substantial reductions of up to ~10%.

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Preliminary results on the determination of solar energy potential using LiDAR technology

International Review of Applied Sciences and Engineering ◽

10.1556/1848.2015.6.1.2 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 11-17 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

G. Szabó ◽

P. Enyedi ◽

Gy. Szabó ◽

I. Fazekas ◽

T. Buday ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Energy Production ◽

Alternative Energy ◽

Surface Model ◽

Solar Panels ◽

Energy Potential ◽

Potential Surfaces ◽

Large Power ◽

Automatic Data

According to the challenge of the reduction of greenhouse gases, the structure of energy production should be revised and the increase of the ratio of alternative energy sources can be a possible solution. Redistribution of the energy production to the private houses is an alternative of large power stations at least in a partial manner. Especially, the utilization of solar energy represents a real possibility to exploit the natural resources in a sustainable way. In this study we attempted to survey the roofs of the buildings with an automatic method as the potential surfaces of placing solar panels. A LiDAR survey was carried out with 12 points/m2 density as the most up-to-date method of surveys and automatic data collection techniques. Our primary goal was to extract the buildings with special regard to the roofs in a 1 km2 study area, in Debrecen. The 3D point cloud generated by the LiDAR was processed with MicroStation TerraScan software, using semi-automatic algorithms. Slopes, aspects and annual solar radiation income of roof planes were determined in ArcGIS10 environment from the digital surface model. Results showed that, generally, the outcome can be regarded as a roof cadaster of the buildings with correct geometry. Calculated solar radiation values revealed those roof planes where the investment for photovoltaic solar panels can be feasible.

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Effects of Aerosols and Clouds on the Levels of Surface Solar Radiation and Solar Energy in Cyprus

10.20944/preprints202105.0138.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ilias Fountoulakis ◽

Panagiotis Kosmopoulos ◽

Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou ◽

Panagiotis-Ioannis Raptis ◽

Rodanthi-Elisavet Mamouri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Financial Loss ◽

Low Latitude ◽

High Quality ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Satellite Retrievals ◽

Different Types ◽

Fine Resolution

Cyprus plans to drastically increase the share of renewable energy sources from 13.9% in 2020 to 22.9% in 2030. Solar energy can play a key role in the effort to fulfil this goal. The potential for production of solar energy over the island is much higher than most of European territory because of the low latitude of the island and the nearly cloudless summers. In this study, high quality and fine resolution satellite retrievals of aerosols and dust, from the newly developed MIDAS climatology, as well as information for clouds from CMSAF are used in order to quantify the effects of aerosols, dust, and clouds on the levels of surface solar radiation (SSR) and the corresponding financial loss for different types of installations for production of solar energy. An SSR climatology has been also developed based on the above information. Ground-based measurements were also incorporated to study the contribution of different species to the aerosol mixture and the effects of day-to-day variability of aerosols on SSR. Aerosols attenuate 5 – 10% of annual GHI and 15 – 35% of annual DNI, while clouds attenuate ~25 – 30% and 35 – 50% respectively. Dust is responsible for 30 – 50% of the overall attenuation by aerosols.

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Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16536 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Blanka Bartok

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

The Impact

As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.&#160;&#160;Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014&#160;

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Retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere from SCIAMACHY limb measurements

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques ◽

10.5194/amt-4-933-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 933-954 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

A. Rozanov ◽

K. Weigel ◽

H. Bovensmann ◽

S. Dhomse ◽

K.-U. Eichmann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Water Vapor Content ◽

Retrieval Algorithm ◽

Altitude Range ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

Vertical Distributions ◽

First Results ◽

Scanning Imaging

Abstract. This study describes the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) altitude range from space-borne observations of the scattered solar light made in limb viewing geometry. First results using measurements from SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) aboard ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite) are presented here. In previous publications, the retrieval of water vapor vertical distributions has been achieved exploiting either the emitted radiance leaving the atmosphere or the transmitted solar radiation. In this study, the scattered solar radiation is used as a new source of information on the water vapor content in the UTLS region. A recently developed retrieval algorithm utilizes the differential absorption structure of the water vapor in 1353–1410 nm spectral range and yields the water vapor content in the 11–25 km altitude range. In this study, the retrieval algorithm is successfully applied to SCIAMACHY limb measurements and the resulting water vapor profiles are compared to in situ balloon-borne observations. The results from both satellite and balloon-borne instruments are found to agree typically within 10 %.

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Understanding multidecadal variability for energy system studies: can current 20th century reanalyses do the job?

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3008 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jan Wohland ◽

Hannah Bloomfield ◽

David Brayshaw ◽

Stefan Pfenninger ◽

Martin Wild

Keyword(s):

Power Generation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Wind Energy ◽

20Th Century ◽

Energy Production ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Energy System ◽

Multidecadal Variability ◽

Climatic Information

The variability of renewable power generation is often quantified based on modern reanalyses such as ERA5 or MERRA-2 which provide climatic information over the last few decades. Compared to infrastructure lifetimes, modern reanalyses cover only short periods and may consequently fail to sample relevant longer-term climate variability. While there is evidence for multi-decadal variability in wind power generation [Wohland et al. (2019), Zeng et al. (2019)], hydropower [Bonnet et al. (2017)] and solar energy [Sweerts et al. (2019)], a consistent treatment of multi-decadal variability has not been achieved.&#160;This knowledge barrier can potentially be overcome using 20th century reanalyses which provide internally consistent fields of energy-relevant variables (e.g., solar radiation, precipitation, temperature and wind). However, the provision of reliable climatic information on these timescales is known to be a challenge due to, for example, the evolution of measurement techniques. Some cases of spurious trends and other shortcomings of the datasets are known. It is therefore of utmost importance to quantify uncertainties prior to usage in energy system studies. To this end, we systematically compare 20CRv3, 20CRv2c, CERA20C and ERA20C with respect to variables needed in renewable energy assessments and report similarities and discrepancies accross the datasets. The focus is given to substantial differences with respect to multi-decadal solar radiation variability in Europe, also known as dimming and brightening.&#160; ReferencesBonnet, R., Bo&#233;, J., Dayon, G. & Martin, E. Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France. Water Resour. Res. 53, 8366&#8211;8382 (2017).Sweerts, B. et al. Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data. Nat Energy 4, 657&#8211;663 (2019).Wohland, J., Omrani, N. E., Keenlyside, N. & Witthaut, D. Significant multidecadal variability in German wind energy generation. Wind Energ. Sci. 4, 515&#8211;526 (2019).Zeng, Z. et al. A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2019).

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Trends in Downward Solar Radiation at the Surface over North America from Climate Model Projections and Implications for Solar Energy

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/483679 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Gerardo Andres Saenz ◽

Huei-Ping Huang

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

North America ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

The United States ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Climate Model Simulations ◽

The Impact

The projected changes in the downward solar radiation at the surface over North America for late 21st century are deduced from global climate model simulations with greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. A robust trend is found in winter over the United States, which exhibits a simple pattern of a decrease of sunlight over Northern USA. and an increase of sunlight over Southern USA. This structure was identified in both the seasonal mean and the mean climatology at different times of the day. It is broadly consistent with the known poleward shift of storm tracks in winter in climate model simulations with GHG forcing. The centennial trend of the downward shortwave radiation at the surface in Northern USA. is on the order of 10% of the climatological value for the January monthly mean, and slightly over 10% at the time when it is midday in the United States. This indicates a nonnegligible influence of the GHG forcing on solar energy in the long term. Nevertheless, when dividing the 10% by a century, in the near term, the impact of the GHG forcing is relatively minor such that the estimate of solar power potential using present-day climatology will remain useful in the coming decades.

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Study of surface solar radiation with the use of satellite and ground-based observations and climate model simulations

10.12681/eadd/36958 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

Γεωργία Αλεξανδρή

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Climate Model Simulations

Βασικός στόχος της παρούσας διδακτορικής διατριβής είναι να αναδείξει τη σημασία της συνδυασμένης χρήσης επίγειων και δορυφορικών παρατηρήσεων με προσομοιώσεις από κλιματικά μοντέλα και μοντέλα διάδοσης ακτινοβολίας στη μελέτη της ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας στην επιφάνεια της Γης. Το πρώτο κεφάλαιο, όπου δίδονται γενικές πληροφορίες για την ηλιακή ακτινοβολία και παρουσιάζονται τα κίνητρα της έρευνας που περιγράφεται στην παρούσα διατριβή, ακολουθείται από ένα κεφάλαιο που περιλαμβάνει τρεις σύντομες μελέτες περίπτωσης. Σε αυτές τις μελέτες γίνεται χρήση δεδομένων από το International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) με σκοπό την ανάδειξη της σημασίας του προγράμματος ISCCP για κλιματικές μελέτες περιοχικής κλίμακας. Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο, λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τη συζήτηση που περιλαμβάνεται στην τελευταία έκθεση της Διακυβερνητικής Επιτροπής για την Αλλαγή του Κλίματος (IPCC) για την ηλιακή ακτινοβολία στην επιφάνεια της Γης, παρουσιάζεται μια αναλυτική μελέτη της ικανότητας ενός περιοχικού κλιματικού μοντέλου (RegCM4) να προσομοιώνει τα επίπεδα της προσπίπτουσας στο έδαφος ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας στην Ευρώπη. Αυτή η μελέτη περιλαμβάνει παρατηρήσεις από τους δορυφόρους Meteosat, προσομοιώσεις από περιοχικό κλιματικό μοντέλο και προσομοιώσεις με μοντέλο διάδοσης ακτινοβολίας. Στο κεφάλαιο αυτό υπογραμμίζεται η σημασία της ακριβούς προσομοίωσης της ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας στο έδαφος από τα κλιματικά μοντέλα. Ενώ η Ευρώπη καλύπτεται από ένα σχετικά πυκνό δίκτυο επίγειων σταθμών που καταγράφουν τα επίπεδα της ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας δεν ισχύει το ίδιο για την κλιματικά ευαίσθητη περιοχή της Ανατολικής Μεσογείου. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο αυτής της διατριβής επιχειρείται η κάλυψη αυτού του κενού καθώς παρουσιάζεται μια μελέτη των επιπέδων της προσπίπτουσας ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας στο έδαφος σε υψηλή χωρική ανάλυση για την περίοδο 1983-2013 με τη χρήση δορυφορικών παρατηρήσεων. Η χωροχρονική μεταβολή και οι τάσεις της ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας μελετούνται μαζί με την ευαισθησία των δορυφορικών προϊόντων σε παραμέτρους που σχετίζονται με τα νέφη, τα αιωρούμενα σωματίδια και τους υδρατμούς. Για τις ανάγκες αυτής της μελέτης χρησιμοποιήθηκε μια σειρά από δορυφορικά προϊόντα σε συνδυασμό με επίγειες παρατηρήσεις και πραγματοποιήθηκαν προσομοιώσεις με μοντέλο διάδοσης ακτινοβολίας. Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή ολοκληρώνεται με την παρουσίαση των κυριότερων αποτελεσμάτων στο πέμπτο κεφάλαιο.

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Clear-Sky Surface Solar Radiation and the Radiative Effect of Aerosol and Water Vapor Based on Simulations and Satellite Observations over Northern China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12121931 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 1931

Author(s):

Guang Zhang ◽

Yingying Ma

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Inner Mongolia ◽

Northern China ◽

Satellite Observations ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

South Central ◽

West Central

The distribution and trend of clear-sky surface solar radiation (SSR) and the quantitative effects of aerosol and water vapor are investigated in northern China during 2001–2015 using radiation simulations and satellite observations. Clear-sky SSR in northern China is high in summer and low in winter, which is dominated by astronomical factors and strongly modulated by the seasonal variations of radiative effects of aerosol (ARE) and water vapor (WVRE). The larger variation of WVRE than ARE indicates that water vapor plays a more important role in moderating the seasonal variation of clear-sky SSR. Clear-sky SSR shows an overall decreasing trend of –0.12 W/m2 per year, with decrease more strongly than –0.60 W/m2 per year in west-central Shandong and increase (about 0.40 W/m2) in south-central Inner Mongolia. The consistency of spatial distribution and high correlation between clear-sky SSR and ARE trend indicate that the clear-sky SSR trend is mainly determined by aerosol variation. Dust mass concentration decreases about 16% in south-central Inner Mongolia from 2001 to 2015, resulting in the increase in clear-sky SSR. In contrast, sulfate aerosol increases about 92% in west-central Shandong, leading to the decreasing trend of clear-sky SSR.

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Beyond solar radiation management – the strategic role of low-cost photovoltaics in solar energy production

International Journal of Sustainable Energy ◽

10.1080/14786451.2013.854244 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 34 (3-4) ◽

pp. 211-220

Author(s):

Felix Hermerschmidt ◽

Panayiotis D. Pouloupatis ◽

George Partasides ◽

Andreas Lizides ◽

Stella Hadjiyiannakou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Energy Production ◽

Low Cost ◽

Solar Radiation Management ◽

Strategic Role ◽

Radiation Management

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Causes of Dimming and Brightening in China Inferred from Homogenized Daily Clear-Sky and All-Sky in situ Surface Solar Radiation Records (1958–2016)

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0666.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (18) ◽

pp. 5901-5913 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Su Yang ◽

Xiaolan L. Wang ◽

Martin Wild

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Water Vapor Pressure ◽

Historical Records ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

The Past ◽

Sky Conditions

AbstractThis paper presents a study on long-term surface solar radiation (SSR) changes over China under clear- and all-sky conditions and analyzes the causes of the “dimming” and “brightening.” To eliminate the nonclimatic signals in the historical records, the daily SSR dataset was first homogenized using quantile-matching (QM) adjustment. The results reveal rapid dimming before 2000 not only under all-sky conditions, but also under clear-sky conditions, at a decline rate of −9.7 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1 (1958–99). This is slightly stronger than that under all-sky conditions at −7.4 ± 0.4 W m−2 decade−1, since the clear-sky dimming stopped 15 years later. A rapid “wettening” of about 40-Pa surface water vapor pressure (SWVP) from 1985 to 2000 was found over China. It contributed 2.2% to the SSR decline under clear-sky conditions during the whole dimming period (1958–99). Therefore, water vapor cannot be the main cause of the long-term dimming in China. After a stable decade (1999–2008), an intensive brightening appeared under the clear-sky conditions at a rate of 10.6 ± 2.0 W m−2 decade−1, whereas a much weaker brightening (−0.8 ± 3.1 W m−2 decade−1) has been observed under all-sky conditions between 2008 and 2016. The remarkable divergence between clear- and all-sky trends in recent decades indicates that the clouds played two opposite roles in the SSR changes during the past 30 years, by compensating for the declining SSR under the cloud-free conditions in 1985–99 and by counteracting the increasing SSR under cloud-free conditions in 2008–16. Aerosols remain as the main cause of dimming and brightening over China in the last 60 years, although the clouds counteract the effects of aerosols after 2000.

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