scholarly journals Does the Holton–Tan Mechanism Explain How the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Modulates the Arctic Polar Vortex?

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1713-1733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Tiffany A. Shaw ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Idealized experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are used to explore the mechanism(s) whereby the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, the effect of the critical line emphasized in the Holton–Tan mechanism is less important than the effect of the mean meridional circulation associated with QBO winds for the polar response to the QBO. More specifically, the introduction of easterly winds at the equator near 50 hPa 1) causes enhanced synoptic-scale Eliassen–Palm flux (EPF) convergence in the subtropics from 150 to 50 hPa, which leads to the subtropical critical line moving poleward in the lower stratosphere, and 2) creates a barrier to planetary wave propagation from subpolar latitudes to midlatitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere (e.g., less equatorward EPF near 50°N), which leads to enhanced planetary wave convergence in the polar vortex region. These two effects are mechanistically distinct; while the former is related to the subtropical critical line, the latter is due to the mean meridional circulation of the QBO. All of these effects are consistent with linear theory, although the evolution of the entire wind distribution is only quasi-linear because induced zonal wind changes cause the wave driving to shift and thereby positively feed back on the zonal wind changes. Finally, downward propagation of the QBO in the equatorial stratosphere, upper stratospheric equatorial zonal wind, and changes in the tropospheric circulation appear to be less important than lower stratospheric easterlies for the polar stratospheric response. Overall, an easterly QBO wind anomaly in the lower stratosphere leads to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex, in agreement with previous studies, although not because of changes in the subtropical critical line.

The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part I: Simplified Dry GCMs

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1273-1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract A dry primitive equation model is used to explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratosphere can influence the troposphere, even in the absence of tropical convection anomalies and a variable stratospheric polar vortex. QBO momentum anomalies induce a meridional circulation to maintain thermal wind balance. This circulation includes zonal wind anomalies that extend from the equatorial stratosphere into the subtropical troposphere. In the presence of extratropical eddies, the zonal wind anomalies are intensified and extend downward to the surface. The tropospheric response differs qualitatively between integrations in which the subtropical jet is strong and integrations in which the subtropical jet is weak. While fluctuation–dissipation theory provides a guide to predicting the response in some cases, significant nonlinearity in others, particularly those designed to model the midwinter subtropical jet of the North Pacific, prevents its universal application. When the extratropical circulation is made zonally asymmetric, the response to the QBO is greatest in the exit region of the subtropical jet. The dry model is able to simulate much of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime tropospheric response to the QBO observed in reanalysis datasets and in long time integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM).

scholarly journals Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Extratropical Winter Stratosphere in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model and in Reanalysis Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1402-1419 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Anstey ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
John F. Scinocca
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.

scholarly journals Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Gray ◽  
M. J. Brown ◽  
J. Knight ◽  
M. Andrews ◽  
H. Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Spatial Evolution ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Extreme polar vortex events known as sudden stratospheric warmings can influence surface winter weather conditions, but their timing is difficult to predict. Here, we examine factors that influence their occurrence, with a focus on their timing and vertical extent. We consider the roles of the troposphere and equatorial stratosphere separately, using a split vortex event in January 2009 as the primary case study. This event cannot be reproduced by constraining wind and temperatures in the troposphere alone, even when the equatorial lower stratosphere is in the correct phase of the quasi biennial oscillation. When the flow in the equatorial upper stratosphere is also constrained, the timing and spatial evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and hence their associated impacts at the surface.

Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the boreal winter tropospheric circulation in CMIP5/6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Rao ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
Ian White ◽  
Chen Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Buoyancy Frequency ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

<p>Using 17 CMIP5/6 models with a spontaneously-generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like phenomenon, this study explores and evaluates three dynamical pathways for impacts of the QBO on the troposphere: (i) the Holtan-Tan (HT) effect on the stratospheric polar vortex and the northern annular mode (NAM), (ii) the subtropical zonal wind downward arching over the Pacific, and (iii) changes in local convection over the Maritime Continent and Indo-Pacific Ocean. More than half of the models can reproduce at least one of the three pathways, but few models can reproduce all of the three routes. Firstly, most models are able to simulate a weakened polar vortex during easterly QBO (EQBO) winters, in agreement with the observed HT effect. However, the weakened polar vortex response during EQBO winters is underestimated or not present at all in other models, and hence the QBO → vortex → tropospheric NAM/AO chain is not simulated. For the second pathway associated with the downward arching of the QBO winds, seven models incorrectly or poorly simulate the extratropical easterly anomaly center over 20–40°N in the Pacific sector during EQBO, and hence the negative relative vorticity anomalies poleward of the easterly center is not resolved in those models, leading to an underestimated or incorrectly modelled height response over North Pacific. However the other ten do capture this effect. The third pathway is only observed in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, where the strong climatological deep convection and the warm pool are situated. Nine models can simulate the convection anomalies associated with the QBO over the Maritime Continent, which is likely caused by the near-tropopause low buoyancy frequency anomalies. No robust relationship between the QBO and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be established using the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and nine models consistently confirm little modulation of the ocean basin-wide Walker circulation and ENSO events by the QBO.</p>

scholarly journals Equatorial annual oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year modulation in NCEP data

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. G. Mayr ◽  
J. G. Mengel ◽  
F. T. Huang ◽  
E. R. Nash
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Circumstantial Evidence ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. An analysis is presented of the stratospheric zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the 12-month annual oscillation (AO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the zonal wind results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also seen in the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different time intervals of the data indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this particular QBO period is involved in generating the oscillation as was shown in a modeling study (Mayr et al., 2000). In agreement with the model, the spectral analysis also reveals a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal wind data, which could interact with the strong anti-symmetric AO to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO. The 30-month QBO is well suited to be synchronized by, and phase-locked to, the equatorial semi-annual oscillation (SAO), and this may explain why this QBO periodicity and its 5-year spin-off are observed to persist for many cycles.

scholarly journals Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
James A. Anstey ◽  
Yoshio Kawatani ◽  
Hua Lu ◽  
Scott Osprey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally-averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored using regression analysis. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses associated with the stratospheric polar vortex from other underlying mechanisms. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10–70 hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ~ 20 hPa and ~ 70 hPa but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (~ 50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism is unclear and requires further investigation. QBO anomalies are found in tropical precipitation amounts and a southward shift of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone under westerly QBO conditions is also evident.

scholarly journals A tropospheric pathway of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) impact on the boreal winter polar vortex

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji Yamazaki ◽  
Tetsu Nakamura ◽  
Jinro Ukita ◽  
Kazuhira Hoshi
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Periodic Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is quasi-periodic oscillation of the tropical zonal wind in the stratosphere. When the tropical lower stratospheric wind is easterly (westerly), the winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex tends to be weak (strong). This relation is known as Holton–Tan relationship. Several mechanisms for this relationship have been proposed, especially linking the tropics with high-latitudes through stratospheric pathway. Although QBO impacts on the troposphere have been extensively discussed, a tropospheric pathway of the Holton–Tan relationship has not been explored previously. We here propose a tropospheric pathway of the QBO impact, which may partly account for the Holton–Tan relationship in early winter, especially in the November–December period. The study is based on analyses on observational data and results from a simple linear model and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The mechanism is summarized as follows: the easterly phase of the QBO is accompanied with colder temperature in the tropical tropopause layer, which enhances convective activity over the tropical western Pacific and suppresses over the Indian Ocean, thus enhancing the Walker circulation. This convection anomaly generates Rossby wave train, propagating into the mid-latitude troposphere, which constructively interferences with the climatological stationary waves, especially in wavenumber 1, resulting in enhanced upward propagation of the planetary wave and a weakened polar vortex.

Importance of gravity wave forcing for springtime southern polar vortex breakdown as revealed by ERA5

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aman Gupta ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
Andreas Doernbrack ◽  
Inna Polichtchouk
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
The Mean

<p>Planetary waves and gravity waves are the key drivers of middle atmospheric circulation and variability. While planetary waves are well resolved in climate models, inaccuracies in representation of gravity waves in climate models persist. Inaccuracies in representation of gravity waves limit our understanding of the planetary wave-gravity wave interactions that can be crucial during the Antarctic polar vortex breakdown. Moreover, "missing" gravity wave drag around 60<sup>o</sup>S in the upper stratosphere is considered to be responsible for the "cold-pole" bias in comprehensive climate models that employ parameterizations to appproximately represent the gravity wave drag.</p><p>We illustrate the strength of the high-resolution ERA-5 reanalysis in resolving a broad spectrum of gravity waves in southern hemisphere midlatitudes and to estimate their contribution to the momentum budget around 60<sup>o</sup>S. We find that most of the resolved mountain waves excited over the Andes and Antarctic peninsula propagate away from their source and deposit momentum around 60<sup>o</sup>S over the Southern Ocean. Further, a composite analysis around 60<sup>o</sup>S during the vortex breakdown period using ERA-5 reveals considerably large fractional contribution of resolved + parameterized GWD towards the vortex deceleration. Upto 30 days prior to the breakdown, a balance between the Coriolis acceleration and the planetary wave deceleration provides a weak net deceleration of the mean winds, following which, they provide a net acceleration of the mean winds. The gravity waves, however, provide a steady deceleration of the mean winds throughout the breakdown period. The resolved drag in ERA-5 accounts for as much as one-fourth of the zonal wind deceleration at 60<sup>o</sup>S and 10 hPa, while the parameterized drag in ERA-5 accounts for more than one-half of the zonal wind deceleration.  The findings establish the crucial role of gravity waves in wintertime stratospheric circulation and opens avenues for further stratospheric gravity wave analysis using ERA-5.</p>

How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (20) ◽  
pp. 8975-8996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Rao ◽  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ian P. White
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Buoyancy Frequency ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

AbstractUsing 17 CMIP5 and CMIP6 models with a spontaneously generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like phenomenon, this study explores and evaluates three dynamical pathways for impacts of the QBO on the troposphere: 1) the Holtan–Tan (HT) effect on the stratospheric polar vortex and the northern annular mode (NAM), 2) the subtropical zonal wind downward arching over the Pacific, and 3) changes in local convection over the Maritime Continent and Indo-Pacific Ocean. More than half of the models can reproduce at least one of the three pathways, but few models can reproduce all of the three routes. First, seven models are able to simulate a weakened polar vortex during easterly QBO (EQBO) winters, in agreement with the HT effect in the reanalysis. However, the weakened polar vortex response during EQBO winters is underestimated or not present at all in other models, and hence the chain for QBO, vortex, and tropospheric NAM/AO is not simulated. For the second pathway associated with the downward arching of the QBO winds, 10 models simulate an inconsistent extratropical easterly anomaly center over 20°–40°N in the Pacific sector during EQBO, and hence the negative relative vorticity anomalies poleward of the easterly center is not present in those models, leading to no consensus on the height response over the North Pacific between those models and the reanalysis. However, the other seven models do capture this effect. The third pathway is only observed in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, where the strong climatological deep convection and the warm pool are situated. Seven models can simulate the convection anomalies associated with the QBO over the Maritime Continent, which is likely caused by the near-tropopause low buoyancy frequency anomalies. No robust relationship between the QBO and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be established using the JRA55 reanalysis, and 10 models consistently confirm little modulation of the ocean basinwide Walker circulation and ENSO events by the QBO.

scholarly journals Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (17) ◽  
pp. 6319-6328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Li ◽  
Natalia Calvo ◽  
Jia Yue ◽  
James M. Russell ◽  
Anne K. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Niño strengthens the Brewer–Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at ~25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document