scholarly journals Systematic Estimates of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability for Six AOGCMs

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1827-1846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Branstator ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Masahide Kimoto ◽  
Jeff R. Knight ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Initial State ◽  
The North ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Time Invariant

Abstract Initial-value predictability measures the degree to which the initial state can influence predictions. In this paper, the initial-value predictability of six atmosphere–ocean general circulation models in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is quantified and contrasted by analyzing long control integrations with time invariant external conditions. Through the application of analog and multivariate linear regression methodologies, average predictability properties are estimated for forecasts initiated from every state on the control trajectories. For basinwide measures of predictability, the influence of the initial state tends to last for roughly a decade in both basins, but this limit varies widely among the models, especially in the North Atlantic. Within each basin, predictability varies regionally by as much as a factor of 10 for a given model, and the locations of highest predictability are different for each model. Model-to-model variations in predictability are also seen in the behavior of prominent intrinsic basin modes. Predictability is primarily determined by the mean of forecast distributions rather than the spread about the mean. Horizontal propagation plays a large role in the evolution of these signals and is therefore a key factor in differentiating the predictability of the various models.

scholarly journals Skillful Climate Forecasts of the Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean Using Model-Analogs

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5437-5459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Ding ◽  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Initial State ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
The Individual

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) undergo strong climate drift and initialization shock, driving the model state away from its long-term attractor. Here we explore initializing directly on a model’s own attractor, using an analog approach in which model states close to the observed initial state are drawn from a “library” obtained from prior uninitialized CGCM simulations. The subsequent evolution of those “model-analogs” yields a forecast ensemble, without additional model integration. This technique is applied to four of the eight CGCMs comprising the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) by selecting from prior long control runs those model states whose monthly tropical Indo-Pacific SST and SSH anomalies best resemble the observations at initialization time. Hindcasts are then made for leads of 1–12 months during 1982–2015. Deterministic and probabilistic skill measures of these model-analog hindcast ensembles are comparable to those of the initialized NMME hindcast ensembles, for both the individual models and the multimodel ensemble. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, model-analog hindcast skill exceeds that of the NMME. Despite initializing with a relatively large ensemble spread, model-analogs also reproduce each CGCM’s perfect-model skill, consistent with a coarse-grained view of tropical Indo-Pacific predictability. This study suggests that with little additional effort, sufficiently realistic and long CGCM simulations provide the basis for skillful seasonal forecasts of tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies, even without sophisticated data assimilation or additional ensemble forecast integrations. The model-analog method could provide a baseline for forecast skill when developing future models and forecast systems.

scholarly journals North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Medhaug ◽  
T. Furevik
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

scholarly journals The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1559-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Sophie Daloz ◽  
Fabrice Chauvin ◽  
Kevin Walsh ◽  
Sally Lavender ◽  
Deborah Abbs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Main Development ◽  
Development Region ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals Combining T/P altimetric data with hydrographic data to estimate the mean dynamic topography of the North Atlantic and improve the geoid

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 638-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. LeGrand ◽  
H. Mercier ◽  
T. Reynaud
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Geoid Height ◽  
Dynamic Topography ◽  
Hydrographic Data ◽  
Mean Dynamic Topography ◽  
The North ◽  
Altimetric Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The mean dynamic topography of the surface of the North Atlantic is estimated using an inverse model of the ocean circulation constrained by hydrographic and altimetric observations. In the North Atlantic, altimetric observations have no significant impact on the topography estimate because of the limited precision of available geoid height models. They have a significant impact, however, when uncertainties in the density field are increased to simulate interpolation errors in regions where hydrographic data are scarce. This result, which moderates the conclusion drawn by Ganachaud and co-workers of no significant contribution of altimetric observations to the determination of the large-scale steady circulation, reflects the simple idea that altimetric data are most useful near the surface of the ocean and in areas where the hydrography is poorly determined. One application of the present inverse estimate of the mean dynamic topography is to compute a geoid height correction over the North Atlantic which reduces the uncertainty in the geoid height expanded to spherical harmonic 40 down to a level of about 5 cm.Key words. Oceanography: general (climate and interannual variability) · Oceanography: physical (general circulation; remote sensing)

scholarly journals Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 633-656
Author(s):  
K. Grosfeld ◽  
G. Lohmann ◽  
N. Rimbu ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
F. Lunkeit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm) phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960). Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP) reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

scholarly journals On the Abruptness of Bølling–Allerød Warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 4965-4975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Su ◽  
Andrew P. Ingersoll ◽  
Feng He
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Previous observations and simulations suggest that an approximate 3°–5°C warming occurred at intermediate depths in the North Atlantic over several millennia during Heinrich stadial 1 (HS1), which induces warm salty water (WSW) lying beneath surface cold freshwater. This arrangement eventually generates ocean convective available potential energy (OCAPE), the maximum potential energy releasable by adiabatic vertical parcel rearrangements in an ocean column. The authors find that basin-scale OCAPE starts to appear in the North Atlantic (~67.5°–73.5°N) and builds up over decades at the end of HS1 with a magnitude of about 0.05 J kg−1. OCAPE provides a key kinetic energy source for thermobaric cabbeling convection (TCC). Using a high-resolution TCC-resolved regional model, it is found that this decadal-scale accumulation of OCAPE ultimately overshoots its intrinsic threshold and is released abruptly (~1 month) into kinetic energy of TCC, with further intensification from cabbeling. TCC has convective plumes with approximately 0.2–1-km horizontal scales and large vertical displacements (~1 km), which make TCC difficult to be resolved or parameterized by current general circulation models. The simulation herein indicates that these local TCC events are spread quickly throughout the OCAPE-contained basin by internal wave perturbations. Their convective plumes have large vertical velocities (~8–15 cm s−1) and bring the WSW to the surface, causing an approximate 2°C sea surface warming for the whole basin (~700 km) within a month. This exposes a huge heat reservoir to the atmosphere, which helps to explain the abrupt Bølling–Allerød warming.

scholarly journals Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Grosfeld ◽  
G. Lohmann ◽  
N. Rimbu ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
F. Lunkeit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm) phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960). Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP) reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 4513-4524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Willison ◽  
Walter A. Robinson ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
The North ◽  
Northeastern Atlantic

Abstract Mesoscale condensational heating can increase the sensitivity of modeled extratropical cyclogenesis to horizontal resolution. Here a pseudo global warming experiment is presented to investigate how this heating-enhanced sensitivity to resolution changes in a warmer and thus moister atmosphere. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with 120- and 20-km grid spacing is used to simulate current and future climates. It is found that the North Atlantic storm-track response to global warming is amplified at the higher model resolution. The most dramatic changes occur over the northeastern Atlantic, where resolution typical of current general circulation models (GCMs) results in a smaller global warming response in comparison with that in the 20-km simulations. These results suggest that caution is warranted when interpreting projections from coarse-resolution GCMs of future cyclone activity over the northeastern Atlantic.

scholarly journals North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 353-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Medhaug ◽  
T. Furevik
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–50s) and the following colder period (1960s–80s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

Northern Hemisphere climate régimes during the past 3 Ma: possible tectonic connections

1988 ◽  
Vol 318 (1191) ◽  
pp. 411-430 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Orbital Eccentricity ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
The North ◽  
Matuyama Chron ◽  
Climatic Responses

The 100 ka rhythm of orbital eccentricity has dominated large-amplitude climatic variations in the high-latitude North Atlantic during the Brunhes magnetic chron (0-0.735 Ma BP ). Earlier, during the Matuyama chron (0.735-2.47 Ma BP), climatic variations in this region were lower in amplitude and concentrated mainly at the 41 ka rhythm of orbital obliquity. These rhythmic climatic responses to orbital forcing are evident both in stable isotopic (δ 18 O) indicators of ice volume or temperature and in biotic and lithologic indicators of local North Atlantic surface-ocean variability. The synchronous responses of these indicators are consistent with results from atmospheric general circulation models showing that the North American ice sheet directly controls North Atlantic surface-ocean responses via strong cold winds that are generated on the northern ice-sheet flanks and blow out across the ocean, chilling its surface. Before 2.47 Ma BP , smaller-scale quasiperiodic oscillations of the planktonic fauna and flora occurred, but the cause of these variations in the absence of significant ice sheets is unclear.

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