scholarly journals Probabilistic Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (15) ◽  
pp. 5273-5291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Ning ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Robert Crane ◽  
Thorsten Wagener ◽  
Raymond G. Najjar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This study uses an empirical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce high-resolution, downscaled precipitation projections over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for the future period 2046–65. To examine the sensitivity of precipitation change to the water vapor increase brought by global warming, the authors test the following two approaches to downscaling: one uses the specific humidity in the downscaling algorithm and the other does not. Application of the downscaling procedure to the general circulation model (GCM) projections reveals changes in the relative occupancy, but not the fundamental nature, of the simulated synoptic circulation states. Both downscaling approaches predict increases in annual and winter precipitation, consistent in sign with the “raw” output from the GCMs but considerably smaller in magnitude. For summer precipitation, larger discrepancies are seen between raw and downscaled GCM projections, with a substantial dependence on the downscaling version used (downscaled precipitation changes employing specific humidity are smaller than those without it). Application of downscaling generally reduces the inter-GCM uncertainties, suggesting that some of the spread among models in the raw projected precipitation may result from differences in precipitation parameterization schemes rather than fundamentally different climate responses. Projected changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are found to be significantly related to changes in winter precipitation in the downscaled results, but not for the raw GCM results, suggesting that the downscaling more effectively captures the influence of climate dynamics on projected changes in winter precipitation.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States: Validation of Precipitation Downscaling during the Historical Era*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 509-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Ning ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Robert Crane ◽  
Thorsten Wagener
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Training Interval

Abstract This study uses a statistical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce high-resolution, downscaled precipitation estimates over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The SOMs approach derives a transfer function between large-scale mean atmospheric states and local meteorological variables (daily point precipitation values) of interest. First, the SOM was trained using seven coarsely resolved atmospheric variables from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset to model observed daily precipitation data from 17 stations across Pennsylvania for the period 1979–2005. Employing the same coarsely resolved variables from nine general circulation model (GCM) simulations taken from the historical analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), the trained SOM was subsequently applied to simulate daily precipitation at the same 17 sites for the period 1961–2000. The SOM analysis indicates that the nine model simulations exhibit similar synoptic-scale features to the (NCEP) observations over the 1979–2007 training interval. An analysis of the sea level pressure signatures and the precipitation distribution corresponding to the trained SOM shows that it is effective in differentiating characteristic synoptic circulation patterns and associated precipitation. The downscaling approach provides a faithful reproduction of the observed probability distributions and temporal characteristics of precipitation on both daily and monthly time scales. The downscaled precipitation field shows significant improvement over the raw GCM precipitation fields with regard to observed average monthly precipitation amounts, average monthly number of rainy days, and standard deviations of monthly precipitation amounts, although certain caveats are noted.

scholarly journals Pacific–North American Teleconnection Controls on Precipitation Isotopes (δ18O) across the Contiguous United States and Adjacent Regions: A GCM-Based Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1046-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfang Liu ◽  
Kei Yoshmura ◽  
Gabriel J. Bowen ◽  
Jeffrey M. Welker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The United States ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
Precipitation Δ18o

Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern has a strong influence on North America’s winter climate, but much less is known about how the PNA pattern controls precipitation isotopes (e.g., δ18O) across the United States. In this study, an isotopically equipped atmospheric general circulation model (isoGSM) is used to investigate how divergent phases of the PNA affect precipitation δ18O values across the United States. A simulation using observational climate and isotope data over the United States is evaluated first. The simulation explains 84% of the spatial variability of winter precipitation δ18O, with an overestimation in the northern Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes. Temporally, the simulation explains 29%–81% of the interannual variability of winter precipitation δ18O, with typically a higher explained variance in the east than the west. The modeled winter precipitation δ18O exhibits a clear northwest–southeast (NW–SE) dipolelike pattern in response to shifts in the PNA pattern, with the center of positive polarity in the northwestern United States and the Canadian prairies and the center of negative polarity over the Ohio River valley. This dipolelike spatial pattern is a result of the difference in atmospheric circulation and moisture sources associated with the PNA pattern. These results highlight the importance of the PNA-associated circulation dynamics in governing precipitation isotope patterns across the United States. This understanding improves our ability to interpret paleoclimate records of water isotope/hydrologic change across the United States with a much greater appreciation of regional traits. The robust antiphase oscillation in precipitation isotopes in response to shifting the PNA pattern provides a promising opportunity to reconstruct the past variability in the PNA pattern that may be recorded in ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments, and speleothems.

Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Response to Modes of SST Variability and Implications for Droughts

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (16) ◽  
pp. 4327-4341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Pegion ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Sst Variability

Abstract A set of idealized global model experiments was performed by several modeling centers as part of the Drought Working Group of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability component of the World Climate Research Programme (CLIVAR). The purpose of the experiments was to assess the role of the leading modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the climate over the continents, with particular emphasis on the influence of SSTs on surface climate variability and droughts over the United States. An analysis based on several models gives more creditability to the results since it relies on the assessment of impacts that are robust across different models. Coordinated atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with three modes of SST variability were analyzed. The results show that the SST-forced precipitation variability over the central United States is dominated by the SST mode with maximum loading in the central Pacific Ocean. The SST mode with loading in the Atlantic Ocean, and a mode that is dominated by trends in SSTs, lead to a smaller response. Based on the response to the idealized SSTs, the precipitation response for the twentieth century was also reconstructed. A comparison with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations forced with the observed SSTs illustrates that the reconstructed precipitation variability was similar to the one in the AMIP simulations, further supporting the conclusion that the SST modes identified in the present analysis play a dominant role in the precipitation variability over the United States. One notable exception is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and further analysis regarding this major climate extreme is discussed.

scholarly journals Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1704
Author(s):  
William Battaglin ◽  
Lauren Hay ◽  
David Lawrence ◽  
Greg McCabe ◽  
Parker Norton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
National Park ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Baseline Conditions

The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981–1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in air temperature (T), precipitation (p), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T by 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 °C or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 p indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in p in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases, with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence, in many NPS parks, R is projected to decrease even when p is projected to increase because of increasing T in all parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Seasonality and Regionality in Climate Trends over the United States during 1950–2000

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2571-2590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Max Suarez ◽  
Junye Chen ◽  
Martin Hoerling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Central United States

Abstract The observed climate trends over the United States during 1950–2000 exhibit distinct seasonality and regionality. The surface air temperature exhibits a warming trend during winter, spring, and early summer and a modest countrywide cooling trend in late summer and fall, with the strongest warming occurring over the northern United States in spring. Precipitation trends are positive in all seasons, with the largest trend occurring over the central and southern United States in fall. This study investigates the causes of the seasonality and regionality of those trends, with a focus on the cooling and wetting trends in the central United States during late summer and fall. In particular, the authors examine the link between the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States and the leading patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including a global warming (GW) pattern and a Pacific decadal variability (PDV) pattern. A series of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were performed forced by SST trends associated with these leading SST patterns, as well as the residual trend pattern (obtained by removing the GW and PDV contributions). The results show that the observed seasonal and spatial variations of the climate trends over the United States are to a large extent explained by changes in SST. Among the leading patterns of SST variability, the PDV pattern plays a prominent role in producing both the seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States. In particular, it is the main contributor to the apparent cooling and wetting trends over the central United States. The residual SST trend, a manifestation of phase changes of the Atlantic multidecadal SST variation during 1950–2000, also exerts influences that show strong seasonality with important contributions to the central U.S. temperature and precipitation during the summer and fall seasons. In contrast, the response over the United States to the GW SST pattern is an overall warming with little seasonality or regional variation. These results highlight the important contributions of decadal and multidecadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic in explaining the observed seasonality and regionality of the climate trends over the United States during the period of 1950–2000.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Drought and Persistent Wet Spells over the United States in the Atmosphere–Land–Ocean Coupled Model Experiments

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Lindsey N. Long ◽  
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
The West ◽  
East West ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract Atmosphere–land–ocean coupled model simulations are examined to diagnose the ability of models to simulate drought and persistent wet spells over the United States. A total of seven models are selected for this study. They are three versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with a T382, T126, and T62 horizontal resolution; GFDL Climate Model version 2.0 (CM2.0); GFDL CM2.1; Max Planck Institute (MPI) ECHAM5; and third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3) simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) experiments. Over the United States, drought and persistent wet spells are more likely to occur over the western interior region, while extreme events are less likely to persist over the eastern United States and the West Coast. For meteorological drought, which is defined by precipitation (P) deficit, the east–west contrast is well simulated by the CFS T382 and the T126 models. The HadCM3 captures the pattern but not the magnitudes of the frequency of occurrence of persistent extreme events. For agricultural drought, which is defined by soil moisture (SM) deficit, the CFS T382, CFS T126, MPI ECHAM5, and HadCM3 models capture the east–west contrast. The models that capture the west–east contrast also have a realistic P climatology and seasonal cycle. ENSO is the dominant mode that modulates P over the United States. A model needs to have the ENSO mode and capture the mean P responses to ENSO in order to simulate realistic drought. To simulate realistic agricultural drought, the model needs to capture the persistence of SM anomalies over the western region.

scholarly journals Projected Changes to Spring and Summer Precipitation in the Midwestern United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin A. Grady ◽  
Liang Chen ◽  
Trent W. Ford
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Model Agreement

Spring and summer precipitation are both important factors for agricultural productivity in the Midwest region of the United States. Adequate summer precipitation, particularly in the reproductive and grain fill stages in July and August, is critical to corn and soybean success. Meanwhile, excessive spring precipitation can cause significant planting delays and introduces challenges with weed and pest management, and soil erosion and compaction. However, uncertainty especially in future summer precipitation changes, translates to uncertainties in how the joint distributions of spring and summer precipitation are expected to change by mid- and late-century across the Midwest. This study examines historical and projected changes in the characteristics of spring and summer precipitation in the Midwest using 12 dynamically downscaled simulations under the high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) from the NA-CORDEX project. Historical increases in spring precipitation and precipitation intensity are projected to continue into the mid- and late-century across the region, with strong model agreement. By comparison, projected changes in Midwest summer precipitation are more modest than for spring and have much less model agreement. Despite a projected three- to four-fold increase in the frequency of wet springs by late-century, relative to the model ensemble historical average, the lack of substantial and robust projected change in summer precipitation results in only a small increase in the risk of dry summers following wet springs in the Midwest by mid- and late-century.

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