Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Using an Object-Based Algorithm

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 2563-2579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Skok ◽  
Julio Bacmeister ◽  
Joseph Tribbia
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Object Identification ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Identification Algorithm ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Abstract A recently developed object identification algorithm is applied to multisensor precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42) to detect and quantify the contribution of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) to total precipitation between 1998 and 2008. The study period includes 1144 storms. Estimates of TCP derived here are similar in pattern and seasonal variation to earlier estimates but are somewhat higher in magnitude. Annual-mean TCP fractions of over 20% are diagnosed over large swaths of tropical ocean, with seasonal means in some regions of more than 50%. Interannual variability of TCP is examined, and a small but significant downward trend in global TCP from 1998 to 2008 is found, consistent with results from independent studies examining accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Relationships between annual-mean ACE and TCP in each major tropical cyclone basin are examined. High correlations are found in almost every basin, although different linear relationships exist in each. The highest ACE/TCP ratios are obtained in the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific basins, with lower ratios present in the northwest Pacific and South Pacific basins.

scholarly journals A TRMM-Based Tropical Cyclone Cloud and Precipitation Feature Database

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1255-1274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Chuntao Liu ◽  
Edward J. Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Imaging System ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Convective Cell ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific Ocean ◽  
Multiple Sensors ◽  
The North

AbstractThe Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has provided invaluable data for tropical cyclone (TC) research since December 1997. The challenge, however, is how to analyze and efficiently utilize all of the information from several instruments on TRMM that observe the same target. In this study, a tropical cyclone precipitation, cloud, and convective cell feature (TCPF) database has been developed by using observations of the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), Microwave Imager (TMI), Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS), Lightning Imaging System (LIS), and the TRMM 3B42 rainfall product. The database is based on an event-based method that analyzes the measurements from multiple sensors. This method condenses the original information of pixel-level measurements into the properties of events, which can significantly increase the efficiency of searching and sorting the observed historical TCs. With both convective and rainfall properties included, the database offers the potential to aid the research aiming to improve both TC intensification and rainfall forecasts. Using the TRMM TCPF database, regional variations of TC convection and diurnal variations of TC rainfall are examined. In terms of absolute number, the northwest Pacific Ocean basin has the deepest and most intense TCPFs according to IR, radar, and 85-GHz microwave measurements. However, the North Atlantic TCPFs appear to have the highest lightning production. Globally, TC rainfall has a maximum at 0430–0730 local solar time (LST) and a minimum around 1930–2230 LST. However, after separating ocean from land, a distinct difference is seen. Over land, the diurnal variation of TC rainfall shows double peaks: one around 0130–0730 LST and the other at 1630–1930 LST. The minimum is at 1030–1330 LST.

Prediction of August Atlantic Basin Hurricane Activity

10.1175/814.1 ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1044-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Blake ◽  
William M. Gray
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Although skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin are now a reality, large gaps remain in our understanding of observed variations in the distribution of activity within the hurricane season. The month of August roughly spans the first third of the climatologically most active part of the season, but activity during the month is quite variable. This paper reports on an initial investigation into forecasting year-to-year variability of August tropical cyclone (TC) activity using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. It is shown that 55%–75% of the variance of August TC activity can be hindcast using a combination of 4–5 global predictors chosen from a 12-predictor pool with each of the predictors showing precursor associations with TC activity. The most prominent predictive signal is the equatorial July 200-mb wind off the west coast of South America. When this wind is anomalously strong from the northeast during July, Atlantic TC activity in August is almost always enhanced. Other July conditions associated with active Augusts include a weak subtropical high in the North Atlantic, an enhanced subtropical high in the northwest Pacific, and low pressure in the Bering Sea region. The most important application of the August-only forecast is that predicted net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in August has a significant relationship with the incidence of U.S. August TC landfall events. Better understanding of August-only TC variability will allow for a more complete perspective of total seasonal variability and, as such, assist in making better seasonal forecasts.

scholarly journals An Analysis of NCEP Tropical Cyclone Vitals and Potential Effects on Forecasting Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 744-756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Trahan ◽  
Lynn Sparling
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Real Time ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Structure Information ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Systems

Abstract This study analyzes the Tropical Cyclone Vitals Database (TCVitals), which contains cyclone location, intensity, and structure information, generated in real time by forecasters. These data are used to initialize cyclones in several NCEP operational forecasting models via bogusing and vortex relocation methods. In many situations, time is of the essence and the TCVitals database represents the best real-time estimate of the cyclone state possible in real time, given the limitations of available data and time constraints inherent in real-time forecasting. NCEP and other users of TCVitals have a responsibility to work around the inevitable limitations of what forecasters can do for TCVitals in real time. With ensemble systems becoming available, a way to do that will soon be available. However, the TCVitals’ limitations must first be quantitatively understood so that model developers can take them into account. That is the motivation for the present study, which compares the TCVitals storm location and intensity to postseason reanalysis values found in the best-track database and statistically compares the TCVitals storm depth to 946 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) overpasses. All storms of tropical depression strength or stronger in all basins are analyzed, with a special focus on National Hurricane Center TCVitals for the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins, the main areas of responsibility for NCEP. In addition, the sensitivity to TCVitals on the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model is examined by rerunning the 2011 HWRF for the 2010 North Atlantic season twice: once with TCVitals input and once with best-track input.

scholarly journals Global Distribution of Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclones Based on 11-Yr TRMM Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1371-1386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Tao ◽  
Haiyan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
The North

Abstract Global distribution of hot towers in tropical cyclones (TCs) is statistically quantified using an 11-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Feature (TCPF) database. From 6003 individual TRMM overpasses of 869 TCs, about 1.6% of TC convective systems are found to penetrate 14 km and about 0.1% of them even reach the 380-K potential temperature level. Among six TC-prone basins, the highest population of TC convective systems and those with hot towers are found over the northwest Pacific (NWP) basin. However, the greatest percentage of TCPFs that are hot towers [overshooting TCPFs (OTCPFs)] is found over the North Indian Ocean basin. Larger overshooting distance and ice mass are also found in this basin. The monthly variation of OTCPFs resembles that of TC activities in each basin. The percentage of OTCPFs is much higher in the inner core (IC) region (10%) than that in the inner rainband (IB; 2%) and outer rainband (OB; 1%) regions. OTCPFs in the IC region have much larger overshooting distance, area, volume, and ice mass than those in the IB and OB regions. The percentage of OTCPFs in the IC region increases as both TC intensity and intensification rate increase. About 17% of IC features in rapidly intensifying storms penetrate over 14 km, while the percentage is down to 11% for slowly intensifying, 9% for neutral, and 8% for weakening storms. A very good linear relationship is found between TC intensification rate and the percentage of TCPFs that are hot towers in the IC region.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B1 ◽  
pp. 423-427
Author(s):  
M. D. Ramos ◽  
E. Tendencia ◽  
K. Espana ◽  
J. Sabido ◽  
G. Bagtasa
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
West Pacific Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (2) the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) of NOAA and (3) the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) and (4) Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC) for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN) values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham Torres ◽  
Russell Glazer ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Xuejie Gao ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

<p>Under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, simulations of tropical cyclones were performed using the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model 4 (RegCM4) at a spatial resolution of 25 km over four domains (Australasia, Central America, Western Pacific and South Asia). These simulations cover the 130-year period, 1970-2099, for two Representative Concentration Pathways, 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios and were driven by three General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). In these simulations, the potential changes in TC activity for future climate conditions over five areas of tropical cyclone formation (North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific, North Atlantic, Australasia and Eastern Pacific) are investigated, using an objective algorithm to identify and track them. The RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are evaluated for the period of 1995–2014 by comparing them with the observed tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS); then the changes in two future periods (2041-2016 and 2080–2099), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014), are analyzed for RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs. Preliminary results show that RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are capable of most of the features of the observed tropical cyclone climatology, and the future projections show an increase in the number of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions. These changes are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. On the other hand, the North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in the future storm rainfall rate and the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones over almost all the domains. Our study shows robust and statistically significant responses, often, but not always, in line with previous studies. This implies that a robust assessment of tropical cyclone changes requires analyses of ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models capable of representing the response of different characteristics of different key atmospheric factors.</p>

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B1 ◽  
pp. 423-427
Author(s):  
M. D. Ramos ◽  
E. Tendencia ◽  
K. Espana ◽  
J. Sabido ◽  
G. Bagtasa
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
West Pacific Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (2) the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) of NOAA and (3) the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) and (4) Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC) for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN) values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

scholarly journals Cross Validation of Rainfall Characteristics Estimated from the TRMM PR, a Combined PR–TMI Algorithm, and a C-POL Ground Radar during the Passage of Tropical Cyclone and Nontropical Cyclone Events over Darwin, Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (12) ◽  
pp. 2339-2358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Deo ◽  
S. Joseph Munchak ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Rainfall Rate ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Median Volume ◽  
Precipitation Type ◽  
Correct Direction ◽  
Microwave Imager ◽  
Trmm Microwave Imager

AbstractThis study cross validates the radar reflectivity Z; the rainfall drop size distribution parameter (median volume diameter Do); and the rainfall rate R estimated from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite Precipitation Radar (PR), a combined PR and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) algorithm (COM), and a C-band dual-polarized ground radar (GR) for TRMM overpasses during the passage of tropical cyclone (TC) and non-TC events over Darwin, Australia. Two overpass events during the passage of TC Carlos and 11 non-TC overpass events are used in this study, and the GR is taken as the reference. It is shown that the correspondence is dependent on the precipitation type whereby events with more (less) stratiform rainfall usually have a positive (negative) bias in the reflectivity and the rainfall rate, whereas in the Do the bias is generally positive but small (large). The COM reflectivity estimates are similar to the PR, but it has a smaller bias in the Do for most of the greater stratiform events. This suggests that combining the TMI with the PR adjusts the Do toward the “correct” direction if the GR is taken as the reference. Moreover, the association between the TRMM estimates and the GR for the two TC events, which are highly stratiform in nature, is similar to that observed for the highly stratiform non-TC events (there is no significant difference), but it differs considerably from that observed for the majority of the highly convective non-TC events.

scholarly journals Tracking a Coastal Wave Buoy, Lost from the Southern Coast of Jeju Island, Using Lagrangian Particle Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 795
Author(s):  
Seongbong Seo ◽  
Young-Gyu Park
Keyword(s):  
Japan Sea ◽  
Jeju Island ◽  
East China ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Southern Coast ◽  
Lagrangian Particle ◽  
The North ◽  
Particle Modeling ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Tracking Model

A coastal wave buoy was lost near Jeju Island, Korea, in late July 2014 and found at Cape Mendocino, USA, in April 2020. The buoy’s journey was simulated with a Lagrangian particle tracking model using surface ocean currents and wind data at 10 m above sea level. Experiments were conducted with windage values of 0, 2, and 4%. Particles were released along the southern coast of Jeju Island from 31 July to 8 August 2014. When the windage was 0 or 2%, most particles reached the northwest Pacific via the East/Japan Sea or East China Sea, respectively. With 4% windage, very few particles entered the North Pacific. Under 0% windage, particles accumulated in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP) and never reached the USA. Under 2%, particles were able to escape the GPGP and started to reach the USA coast 2 years and 7 months after the release. The trajectory of the buoy was deduced from the trajectories of particles with a similar travel time. The buoy likely moved to East China and then to the subtropical convergence zone, where it must have circulated for approximately 2 years before being pushed toward Cape Mendocino by the intensified winter westerlies.

scholarly journals Design of Wave Glider Optimal Parameters Suitable for the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the North Indian Ocean, and the South China Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 408
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Mei Hong ◽  
Shiqi Wu ◽  
Kefeng Liu ◽  
Kefeng Mao
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Wave Element ◽  
Wave Glider ◽  
The Northwest Pacific Ocean

To study the optimal design of Wave Glider parameters in the wave environment of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the North Indian Ocean, and the South China Sea, the average velocity of a Wave Glider was taken as the evaluation criterion. Wave reanalysis data from ERA5 were used to classify the mean wave height and period into five types by the K-means clustering method. In addition, a dynamic model was used to simulate the influence of umbilical length, airfoil, and maximum limited angle on the velocity of the Wave Glider under the five types of wave element. The force of the wings was simulated using FLUENT as the model input. The simulation results show that (1) 7 m is the most suitable umbilical length; (2) a smaller relative thickness should be selected in perfect conditions; and (3) for the first type of wave element, 15° is the best choice for the maximum limited angle, and 20° is preferred for the second, third, and fourth types, while 25° is preferred for the fifth type.

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