Atlantic Warm Pool Variability in the CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5315-5336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailong Liu ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
David Enfield
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Sst Bias ◽  
High Level

Abstract This study investigates Atlantic warm pool (AWP) variability in the historical run of 19 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As with the CGCMs in phase 3 (CMIP3), most models suffer from the cold SST bias in the AWP region and also show very weak AWP variability as represented by the AWP area index. However, for the seasonal cycle the AWP SST bias of model ensemble and model sensitivities are decreased compared with CMIP3, indicating that the CGCMs are improved. The origin of the cold SST bias in the AWP region remains unknown, but among the CGCMs in CMIP5 excess (insufficient) high-level cloud simulation decreases (enhances) the cold SST bias in the AWP region through the warming effect of the high-level cloud radiative forcing. Thus, the AWP SST bias in CMIP5 is more modulated by an erroneous radiation balance due to misrepresentation of high-level clouds rather than low-level clouds as in CMIP3. AWP variability is assessed as in the authors' previous study in the aspects of spectral analysis, interannual variability, multidecadal variability, and comparison of the remote connections with ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) against observations. In observations the maximum influences of the NAO and ENSO on the AWP take place in boreal spring. For some CGCMs these influences erroneously last to late summer. The effect of this overestimated remote forcing can be seen in the variability statistics as shown in the rotated EOF patterns from the models. It is concluded that the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E, version 2, coupled with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) ocean model (GISS-E2H), and the GISS Model E, version 2, coupled with the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2R) are the best three models of CMIP5 in simulating AWP variability.

scholarly journals Transient Climate Response in Coupled Atmospheric–Ocean General Circulation Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 1291-1296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mao-Chang Liang ◽  
Li-Ching Lin ◽  
Ka-Kit Tung ◽  
Yuk L. Yung ◽  
Shan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Model Version

Abstract The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has a large uncertainty range among models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and has recently been presented as “inherently unpredictable.” One way to circumvent this problem is to consider the transient climate response (TCR). However, the TCR among AR4 models also differs by more than a factor of 2. The authors argue that the situation may not necessarily be so pessimistic, because much of the intermodel difference may be due to the fact that the models were run with their oceans at various stages of flux adjustment with their atmosphere. This is shown by comparing multimillennium-long runs of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model, version E, coupled with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (GISS-EH) and the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) with what were reported to AR4. The long model runs here reveal the range of variability (~30%) in their TCR within the same model with the same ECS. The commonly adopted remedy of subtracting the “climate drift” is ineffective and adds to the variability. The culprit is the natural variability of the control runs, which exists even at quasi equilibration. Fortunately, for simulations with multidecadal time horizon, robust solutions can be obtained by branching off thousand-year-long control runs that reach “quasi equilibration” using a new protocol, which takes advantage of the fact that forced solutions to radiative forcing forget their initial condition after 30–40 yr and instead depend mostly on the trajectory of the radiative forcing.

Atlantic Warm-Pool Variability in the IPCC AR4 CGCM Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 5612-5628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailong Liu ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
David Enfield
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Local Heating ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Sst Bias

Abstract This study investigates Atlantic warm pool (AWP) variability in the twentieth century and preindustrial simulations of coupled GCMs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In the twentieth-century simulations, most coupled models show very weak AWP variability, represented by an AWP area index, because of the cold SST bias in the AWP. Among the IPCC models, a higher AWP SST index corresponds to increased net downward shortwave radiation and decreased low-level cloud fraction during the AWP peak season. This suggests that the cold SST bias in the AWP region is at least partly caused by an excessive amount of simulated low-level cloud, which blocks shortwave radiation from reaching the sea surface. AWP natural variability is examined in preindustrial simulations. Spectral analysis reveals that only multidecadal band variability of the AWP is significant in observations. All models successfully capture the multidecadal band, but they show that interannual and/or decadal variability is also significant. On the multidecadal time scale, the global SST difference pattern between large AWP years and small AWP years resembles the geographic pattern of the AMO for most coupled models. Observational analysis indicates that both positive ENSO phase and negative NAO phase in winter correspond to reduced trade winds in the AWP region. The westerly anomalies induced by positive ENSO and negative NAO lead to local heating and warm SST from March to May and February to April, respectively. This behavior as a known feature of anomalous AWP growth is well captured by only five models.

scholarly journals A Climatological Study of the Mechanisms Controlling the Seasonal Meridional Migration of the Atlantic Warm Pool in an OGCM

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1224
Author(s):  
Dahirou Wane ◽  
Alban Lazar ◽  
Malick Wade ◽  
Amadou Thierno Gaye
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Seasonal Migration ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Movement Speed ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool

The tropical Atlantic Warm Pool is one of the main drivers of the marine intertropical convergence zone and the associated coastal Northeast Brazilian and West-African monsoons. Its meridional displacement is driven by the solar cycle, modulated by the atmosphere and ocean interactions, whose nature and respective proportions are still poorly understood. This paper presents a climatological study of the upper ocean and lower atmosphere contributions to the warm pool seasonal migration, using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). First, we provide quantitative, albeit simple, pieces of evidence on how the large amplitude of migration in the west, compared to the east, is mainly due to the strong east–west contrast of the background meridional SST gradient intensities, which is maintained by equatorial and eastern tropical upwellings. Our main results consist first in identifying a diagnostic equation for the migration speed of the two meridional boundary isotherms of the Warm Pool, expressed in terms of the various mixed-layer heat fluxes. We then evidence and quantify how, in general, the migration is forced by air–sea fluxes, and damped by ocean circulation. However, remarkable controls by the ocean are identified in some specific regions. In particular, in the northwestern part of the Warm Pool, characterized by a large temperature inversion area, the boreal spring northward movement speed depends on the restitution of the solar heating by the thermocline. Additionally, over the southern part of the Warm Pool, our study quantifies the key role of the equatorial upwelling, which, depending on the longitude, significantly accelerates or slows down the summer poleward migration.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of modelled sulfate radiative forcing to DMS concentration and air-sea flux formulation

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 23931-23968 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-E. Tesdal ◽  
J. R. Christian ◽  
A. H. Monahan ◽  
K. von Salzen
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. In this study, we use an atmospheric general circulation model with explicit aerosol chemistry (CanAM4.1) and several climatologies of surface ocean DMS concentration to assess uncertainties about the climate impact of ocean DMS efflux. Despite substantial variation in the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of simulated DMS fluxes, the global mean radiative forcing is approximately linearly proportional to the global mean surface flux of DMS; the spatial and temporal distribution of ocean DMS efflux has only a minor effect on the global radiation balance. The effect of the spatial structure, however, generates statistically significant changes in the global mean concentrations of some aerosol species. The effect of seasonality on net radiative forcing is larger than that of spatial distribution, and is significant at global scale.

Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950–2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 396-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Adam S. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Sst Forcing

Abstract The relative roles of direct atmospheric radiative forcing (due to observed changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, sulfate and volcanic aerosols, and solar output) and observed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of global December–February atmospheric circulation trends during the second half of the twentieth century are investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). The model experiments are conducted by specifying the observed time-varying SSTs and atmospheric radiative quantities individually and in combination. This approach allows the authors to isolate the direct impact of each type of forcing agent as well as to evaluate their combined effect and the degree to which their impacts are additive. CAM3 realistically simulates the global patterns of sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height trends when both forcings are specified. SST forcing and direct atmospheric radiative forcing drive distinctive circulation responses that contribute about equally to the global pattern of circulation trends. These distinctive circulation responses are approximately additive and partially offsetting. Atmospheric radiative changes directly drive the strengthening and poleward shift of the midlatitude westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere (and to a lesser extent may contribute to those over the Atlantic–Eurasian sector in the Northern Hemisphere), whereas SST trends (specifically those in the tropics) are responsible for the intensification of the Aleutian low and weakening of the tropical Walker circulation. Discrepancies between the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by CAM3 and Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), a coupled model driven by the same atmospheric radiative forcing as CAM3, are traced to differences in their tropical SST trends: in particular, a 60% weaker warming of the tropical Indo-Pacific in the CCSM3 ensemble mean than in nature.

scholarly journals Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (20) ◽  
pp. 8223-8237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salil Mahajan ◽  
Katherine J. Evans ◽  
James J. Hack ◽  
John E. Truesdale
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Global Average ◽  
High Level ◽  
Carbon Aerosols ◽  
Black Carbon Aerosols

Abstract The impacts of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. This paper presents the results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4–SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semidirect effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1×, 2×, 5×, and 10× an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining the estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semidirect effect for the 1 × BC experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global-average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K W−1 m2 when the semidirect effects are accounted for and 0.22 K W−1 m2 with only the direct effects considered. Global-average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4% W−1 m2. The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4° PW−1. Global-average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the southern tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere.

Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

scholarly journals Response of Freshwater Flux and Sea Surface Salinity to Variability of the Atlantic Warm Pool

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1249-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Atlantic Warm Pool ◽  
Mean Circulation ◽  
Circulation Dynamics

Abstract The response of freshwater flux and sea surface salinity (SSS) to the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) variations from seasonal to multidecadal time scales is investigated by using various reanalysis products and observations. All of the datasets show a consistent response for all time scales: A large (small) AWP is associated with a local freshwater gain (loss) to the ocean, less (more) moisture transport across Central America, and a local low (high) SSS. The moisture budget analysis demonstrates that the freshwater change is dominated by the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, while the effect of thermodynamics is of secondary importance. Further decomposition points out that the contribution of the mean circulation dynamics primarily arises from its divergent part, which mainly reflects the wind divergent change in the low level as a result of SST change. In association with a large (small) AWP, warmer (colder) than normal SST over the tropical North Atlantic can induce anomalous low-level convergence (divergence), which favors anomalous ascent (decent) and thus generates more (less) precipitation. On the other hand, a large (small) AWP weakens (strengthens) the trade wind and its associated westward moisture transport to the eastern North Pacific across Central America, which also favors more (less) moisture residing in the Atlantic and hence more (less) precipitation. The results imply that variability of freshwater flux and ocean salinity in the North Atlantic associated with the AWP may have the potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

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