scholarly journals Are CMIP5 Models Better than CMIP3 Models in Simulating Precipitation over East Asia?

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (14) ◽  
pp. 5601-5621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoji Kusunoki ◽  
Osamu Arakawa
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Seasonal March ◽  
Better Than

Abstract The performance of climate models participating in phases 5 and 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP3, respectively) is evaluated and compared with respect to precipitation over East Asia (20°–50°N, 110°–150°E). The target period covers the 20 years from 1981 through 2000. The CMIP5 and CMIP3 models underestimate precipitation amounts over East Asia in the warmer season (May–September), while they overestimate precipitation amounts in the colder season (October–April). Both sets of models have some difficulty in simulating the seasonal march of the rainy season over China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, and they also underestimate the precipitation intensity over East Asia. Nevertheless, the CMIP5 models show a higher reproducibility of precipitation over East Asia than the CMIP3 models with respect to the geographical distribution of precipitation throughout the year, seasonal march of the rainy season, and extreme precipitation events. Models with a higher reproducibility of annual precipitation tend to show a higher reproducibility of precipitation intensity for both the CMIP5 and CMIP3 models. Correlation analysis using all of the CMIP5 and CMIP3 models reveals that models with higher horizontal resolution tend to perform better than those with a lower resolution. The advantage of the CMIP5 models over the CMIP3 models in the simulation of the East Asian climate can be partly attributed to the improved representation of the west Pacific subtropical high in the CMIP5 models, especially during the summer.

scholarly journals Does the Atmospheric Global Model MRI-AGCM3.2 Perform Better than CMIP6 Atmospheric Models in Simulating Precipitation?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoji Kusunoki ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽  
Ryo Mizuta
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events ◽  
Better Than

Abstract The performance of the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation model version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2) in simulating precipitation is compared with that of global atmospheric models registerred to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The MRI-AGCM3.2 with the grid size of 20-km and 60-km and 36 CMIP6 models are forced with observed sea surface temperature for 20-year period from 1995 to 2014. The horizontal resolution of the MRI-AGCM3.2 is relatively finer than CMIP6 models. As for global domain, the reproducibility of MRI-AGCM3.2 models are better than or equal to CMIP6 models in simulating geographical distribution of annual precipitation and intense precipitation events. Models with higher horizontal resolution tend to be better than those with lower resolution in simulating global precipitation. As for East Asia, the performance of MRI-AGCM3.2 models are better than or equal to CMIP6 models in simulating summertime monthly precipitation and the seasonal march in the Japanese rainy season, and extreme precipitation events. Higher horizontal resolution models also tend to perform better than lower resolution models in simulating precipitation over East Asia. The advantage of models with higher horizontal resolution over those with lower resolution in reproducing precipitation is more evident over East Asia than over the globe.

scholarly journals Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8597-8615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Sen Gupta ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Jaclyn N. Brown ◽  
Didier Monselesan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Steric Sea Level ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Climate models often exhibit spurious long-term changes independent of either internal variability or changes to external forcing. Such changes, referred to as model “drift,” may distort the estimate of forced change in transient climate simulations. The importance of drift is examined in comparison to historical trends over recent decades in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Comparison based on a selection of metrics suggests a significant overall reduction in the magnitude of drift from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3) to phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The direction of both ocean and atmospheric drift is systematically biased in some models introducing statistically significant drift in globally averaged metrics. Nevertheless, for most models globally averaged drift remains weak compared to the associated forced trends and is often smaller than the difference between trends derived from different ensemble members or the error introduced by the aliasing of natural variability. An exception to this is metrics that include the deep ocean (e.g., steric sea level) where drift can dominate in forced simulations. In such circumstances drift must be corrected for using information from concurrent control experiments. Many CMIP5 models now include ocean biogeochemistry. Like physical models, biogeochemical models generally undergo long spinup integrations to minimize drift. Nevertheless, based on a limited subset of models, it is found that drift is an important consideration and must be accounted for. For properties or regions where drift is important, the drift correction method must be carefully considered. The use of a drift estimate based on the full control time series is recommended to minimize the contamination of the drift estimate by internal variability.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 931
Author(s):  
Zhichao Lu ◽  
Tianbao Zhao ◽  
Weican Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Antarctic Circumpolar Wave ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Chemistry Module ◽  
Better Than

As a coupled large-scale oceanic and atmospheric pattern in the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic circumpolar wave (ACW) has substantial impacts on the global climate. In this study, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 dataset and historical experiment outputs from 24 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5/CMIP6) spanning the 1980s and 1990s, the simulation capability of models for sea-level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the ACW is evaluated. It is shown that most models can capture well the 50-month period of the ACW. However, many simulations show a weak amplitude, but with various phase differences. Selected models can simulate SLP better than SST, and CMIP6 models generally perform better than the CMIP5 models. The best model for SLP simulation is the CanESM5 model from CMIP6, whereas the best model for SST simulation is the ACCESS1.3 model from CMIP5. It seems that the SST simulation benefits from the inclusion of both a carbon cycle process and a chemistry module, while the SLP simulation benefits from only the chemistry module. When both SLP and SST are taken into consideration, the CanESM5 model performs the best among all the selected models.

scholarly journals CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 5254-5271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
Sequence Of Events

Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized.

scholarly journals Simulating Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical climate variability with an idealised coupled atmosphere-ocean model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1161-1175 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Kurzke ◽  
M. V. Kurgansky ◽  
K. Dethloff ◽  
D. Handorf ◽  
S. Erxleben ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Simplified Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability

Abstract. A quasi-geostrophic model of Southern Hemisphere's wintertime atmospheric circulation with horizontal resolution T21 has been coupled to a global ocean circulation model with a resolution of 2° × 2° and simplified physics. This simplified coupled model reproduces qualitatively some features of the first and the second EOF of atmospheric 833 hPa geopotential height in accordance with NCEP data. The variability patterns of the simplified coupled model have been compared with variability patterns simulated by four complex state-of-the-art coupled CMIP5 models. The first EOF of the simplified model is too zonal and does not reproduce the right position of the centre of action over the Pacific Ocean and its extension to the tropics. The agreement in the second EOF between the simplified and the CMIP5 models is better. The total variance of the simplified model is weaker than the observational variance and those of the CMIP5 models. The transport properties of the Southern Ocean circulation are in qualitative accord with observations. The simplified model exhibits skill in reproducing essential features of decadal and multi-decadal climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. Notably, 800 yr long coupled model simulations reveal sea surface temperature fluctuations on the timescale of several decades in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region.

scholarly journals Analysis of Groundwater and Total Water Storage Changes in Poland Using GRACE Observations, In-situ Data, and Various Assimilation and Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 2949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Śliwińska ◽  
Monika Birylo ◽  
Zofia Rzepecka ◽  
Jolanta Nastula
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Total Water ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Land Data Assimilation System

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations have provided global observations of total water storage (TWS) changes at monthly intervals for over 15 years, which can be useful for estimating changes in GWS after extracting other water storage components. In this study, we analyzed the TWS and groundwater storage (GWS) variations of the main Polish basins, the Vistula and the Odra, using GRACE observations, in-situ data, GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) hydrological models, and CMIP5 (the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate data. The research was conducted for the period between September 2006 and October 2015. The TWS data were taken directly from GRACE measurements and also computed from four GLDAS (VIC, CLM, MOSAIC, and NOAH) and six CMIP5 (FGOALS-g2, GFDL-ESM2G, GISS-E2-H, inmcm4, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-LR) models. The GWS data were obtained by subtracting the model TWS from the GRACE TWS. The resulting GWS values were compared with in-situ well measurements calibrated using porosity coefficients. For each time series, the trends, spectra, amplitudes, and seasonal components were computed and analyzed. The results suggest that in Poland there has been generally no major TWS or GWS depletion. Our results indicate that when comparing TWS values, better compliance with GRACE data was obtained for GLDAS than for CMIP5 models. However, the GWS analysis showed better consistency of climate models with the well results. The results can contribute toward selection of an appropriate model that, in combination with global GRACE observations, would provide information on groundwater changes in regions with limited or inaccurate ground measurements.

The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP6 Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baijun Tian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Double Itcz ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Fully Coupled

<p>The double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias is one of the most outstanding problems in climate models. This study seeks to examine the double-ITCZ bias in the latest state-of-the-art fully coupled global climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6) in comparison to their previous generations (CMIP3 and CMIP5 models). To that end, we have analyzed the long-term annual mean tropical precipitation distributions and several precipitation bias indices that quantify the double-ITCZ biases in 75 climate models including 24 CMIP3 models, 25 CMIP3 models, and 26 CMIP6 models. We find that the double-ITCZ bias and its big inter-model spread persist in CMIP6 models but the double-ITCZ bias is slightly reduced from CMIP3 or CMIP5 models to CMIP6 models.</p>

An evaluation of East Asian Extratropical cyclones in CMIP5 models and their response to greenhouse warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaeyeon Lee ◽  
Jaeyoung Hwang ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
John Gyakum
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Leeward Side ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau

<p>The extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia and their possible future changes are evaluated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The East Asian ETCs are identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to the 850-hPa relative vorticity field for both reference data (ERA-Interim reanalysis data) and model data. The CMIP5 models well capture the spatial distribution of East Asian ETC properties, although significant biases are present around the high-topography regions. Based on the individual model biases, Best 5 models are selected and used for examining the future changes of East Asian ETCs. In future climate, Best 5 shows declined cyclogenesis in the leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau, which is partly responsible for the decreased ETC frequency over the western North Pacific. The intensity of individual ETCs is also projected to decrease in a warm climate. These changes could be attributed to the combined effect of increased static stability and decreased vertical wind shear in East Asia, which means reduced local baroclinicity. It is also found that CMIP6 models have smaller bias than Best 5 CMIP5 models, indicating that the result documented in this study may change in quantity when newly-available CMIP6 models are utilized.</p>

scholarly journals Improved Simulation of Regional Climate by Global Models with Higher Resolution: Skill Scores Correlated with Grid Length*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (15) ◽  
pp. 5985-6000 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. Watterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Grid Length

Abstract The current generation of climate models, as represented by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), has previously been assessed as having more skill in simulating the observed climate than the previous ensemble from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). Furthermore, the skill of models in reproducing seasonal means of precipitation, temperature, and pressure from two observational datasets, quantified by the nondimensional Arcsin–Mielke skill score, appeared to be influenced by model resolution. The analysis is extended to 42 CMIP5 and 24 CMIP3 models. For the combined skill scores for six continents, averaged over the three variables and four seasons, the correlation with model grid length in the 66-model ensemble is −0.73. Focusing on the comparison with ERA-Interim data at higher resolution and with greater regional detail, correlations are nearly as strong for scores over the ocean domain as for land. For the global domain (excluding the Antarctic cap), the correlation of the overall skill score with grid length is −0.61, and it is nearly as strong for each variable. For most tests the improved averaged score of CMIP5 models relative to those from CMIP3 is largely consistent with their increased resolution. However, the improvement for precipitation and the correlations with length are both smaller if rmse is used as a metric. They are smaller again using the GPCP observational data, as the regional detail from a high-resolution model can lead to larger differences when compared to relatively smooth observational fields.

scholarly journals On the Climate Sensitivity and Historical Warming Evolution in Recent Coupled Model Ensembles

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Marie Flynn ◽  
Thorsten Mauritsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Model Treatment ◽  
Systematic Shift ◽  
Model Ensembles

Abstract. The Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, along with the transient 35 climate response (TCR) and greenhouse gas emissions pathways, determines the amount of future warming. Coupled climate models have in the past been important tools to estimate and understand ECS. ECS estimated from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models lies between 2.0 and 4.7 K (mean of 3.2 K), whereas in the latest CMIP6 the spread has increased: 1.8–5.5 K (mean of 3.7 K), with 5 out of 25 models exceeding 5 K. It is thus pertinent to understand the causes underlying this shift. Here we compare the CMIP5 and CMIP6 model ensembles, and find a systematic shift between CMIP eras to be unexplained as a process of random sampling from modeled forcing and feedback distributions. Instead, shortwave feedbacks shift towards more positive values, in particular over the Southern Ocean, driving the shift towards larger ECS values in many of the models. These results suggest that changes in model treatment of mixed-phase cloud processes and changes to Antarctic sea ice representation are likely causes of the shift towards larger ECS. Somewhat surprisingly, CMIP6 models exhibit less historical warming than CMIP5 models; the evolution of the warming suggests, however, that several of the models apply too strong aerosol cooling resulting in too weak mid 20th Century warming compared to the instrumental record.

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