Dominant Covarying Climate Signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice Influence during the Last Three Decades

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 3055-3072 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cerrone ◽  
G. Fusco ◽  
I. Simmonds ◽  
G. Aulicino ◽  
G. Budillon
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
Climate Signals

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes, and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant time scales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the multiple-taper method with singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the southern annular mode (SAM), the Pacific–South American (PSA) teleconnection, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), and the zonal wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition, the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found to be consistent with the occurrence of the positive SAM/negative PSA (SAM+/PSA−) or negative SAM/positive PSA (SAM−/PSA+) combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic region and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

scholarly journals Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cerrone ◽  
G. Fusco
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Climate Modes ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The NCEP–NCAR composite dataset (comprising sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 500-hPa temperature, and meridional wind stress at 10 m above the surface) is used for compiling a set of climate indices describing the most important physical modes of variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH): the southern annular mode (SAM), semiannual oscillation (SAO), Pacific–South American (PSA), and quasi-stationary zonal wavenumber 3 (ZW3) patterns. Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s. This feature is found in association with increased positive SAM and SAO phases detected in terms of upward annual and seasonal trends (in autumn and summer) and upward decadal trends. In addition, the SIC shows upward annual, spring, and summer trends, indicating the insulation of Antarctica from the warmer flows in the midlatitudes. This picture of variations is also found to be consistent with the upward trends detected for the PSA and ZW3 patterns on the annual scale and during the last two decades. Evidence of a more frequent occurrence of the PSA–ZW3 combination could explain, in part, the significant increase of the regional and total Antarctic sea ice coverages.

scholarly journals DASSO: a data assimilation system for the Southern Ocean that utilizes both sea-ice concentration and thickness observations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hao Luo ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze ◽  
Lars Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract To improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations, an ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) was developed based on a regional sea ice–ocean coupled model, which assimilates sea-ice thickness (SIT) together with sea-ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellites. To validate the performance of DASSO, experiments were conducted from 15 April to 14 October 2016. Generally, assimilating SIC and SIT can suppress the overestimation of sea ice in the model-free run. Besides considering uncertainties in the operational atmospheric forcing data, a covariance inflation procedure in data assimilation further improves the simulation of Antarctic sea ice, especially SIT. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, but also highlight the necessity of more reasonable error estimation for the background as well as the observation.

scholarly journals The Influence of Sea Ice Dynamics on the Climate Sensitivity and Memory to Increased Antarctic Sea Ice

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9642-9668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia K. Parise ◽  
Luciano P. Pezzi ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Flavio Justino
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Subsurface Layers

Abstract The study analyzes the sensitivity and memory of the Southern Hemisphere coupled climate system to increased Antarctic sea ice (ASI), taking into account the persistence of the sea ice maxima in the current climate. The mechanisms involved in restoring the climate balance under two sets of experiments, which differ in regard to their sea ice models, are discussed. The experiments are perturbed with extremes of ASI and integrated for 10 yr in a large 30-member ensemble. The results show that an ASI maximum is able to persist for ~4 yr in the current climate, followed by a negative sea ice phase. The sea ice insulating effect during the positive phase reduces heat fluxes south of 60°S, while at the same time these are intensified at the sea ice edge. The increased air stability over the sea ice field strengthens the polar cell while the baroclinicity increases at midlatitudes. The mean sea level pressure is reduced (increased) over high latitudes (midlatitudes), typical of the southern annular mode (SAM) positive phase. The Southern Ocean (SO) becomes colder and fresher as the sea ice melts mainly through sea ice lateral melting, the consequence of which is an increase in the ocean stability by buoyancy and mixing changes. The climate sensitivity is triggered by the sea ice insulating process and the resulting freshwater pulse (fast response), while the climate equilibrium is restored by the heat stored in the SO subsurface layers (long response). It is concluded that the time needed for the ASI anomaly to be dissipated and/or melted is shortened by the sea ice dynamical processes.

scholarly journals Aspects of intraseasonal variability of Antarctic sea ice in austral winter related to ENSO and SAM events

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (241) ◽  
pp. 838-846 ◽  
Author(s):  
KENJI BABA ◽  
JAMES RENWICK
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration

ABSTRACTWe performed an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to assess the intraseasonal variability of 5–60 day band-pass filtered Antarctic sea-ice concentration in austral winter using a 20-year daily dataset from 1995 to 2014. Zonal wave number 3 dominated in the Antarctic, especially so across the west Antarctic. Results showed the coexistence of stationary and propagating wave components. A spectral analysis of the first two principal components (PCs) showed a similar structure for periods up to 15 days but generally more power in PC1 at longer periods. Regression analysis upon atmospheric fields using the first two PCs of sea-ice concentration showed a coherent wave number 3 pattern. The spatial phase delay between the sea-ice and mean sea-level pressure patterns suggests that meridional flow and associated temperature advection are important for modulating the sea-ice field. EOF analyses carried out separately for El Niño, La Niña and neutral years, and for Southern Annular Mode positive, negative and neutral periods, suggest that the spatial patterns of wave number 3 shift between subsets. The results also indicate that El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode affect stationary wave interactions between sea-ice and atmospheric fields on intraseasonal timescales.

scholarly journals Antarctic Sea Ice Climatology, Variability, and Late Twentieth-Century Change in CCSM4

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 4817-4838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Landrum ◽  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
David P. Schneider ◽  
Elizabeth Hunke
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract A preindustrial control run and an ensemble of twentieth-century integrations of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), are evaluated for Antarctic sea ice climatology, modes of variability, trends, and covariance with related physical variables such as surface temperature and sea level pressure. Compared to observations, the mean ice cover is too extensive in all months. This is in part related to excessively strong westerly winds over ~50°–60°S, which drive a large equatorward meridional ice transport and enhanced ice growth near the continent and also connected with a cold bias in the Southern Ocean. In spite of these biases in the climatology, the model’s sea ice variability compares well to observations. The leading mode of austral winter sea ice concentration exhibits a dipole structure with anomalies of opposite sign in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the southern annular mode (SAM) project onto this mode. In twentieth-century integrations, Antarctic sea ice area exhibits significant decreasing annual trends in all six ensemble members from 1950 to 2005, in apparent contrast to observations that suggest a modest ice area increase since 1979. Two ensemble members show insignificant changes when restricted to 1979–2005. The ensemble mean shows a significant increase in the austral summer SAM index over 1960–2005 and 1979–2005 that compares well with the observed SAM trend. However, Antarctic warming and sea ice loss in the model are closely connected to each other and not to the trend in the SAM.

scholarly journals Relationships between Antarctic sea-ice concentration, wind stress and temperature temporal variability, and their changes with distance from the coast

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 409-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Watkins ◽  
Ian Simmonds
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Red Shift ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Individual Wave ◽  
Temperature Spectra ◽  
Time Of Year

Daily A ntarrtir sea-ice concentration, wind and temperature data for the years 1988-94 were analyzed using Fourier techniques to determine their temporal spectra for three equal-length “seasons". The percentage of the total variance explained (VE) by each individual wave (i.e. frequency] was calculated, and spatial averages made over six latitudinal hands surrounding Antarctica. Comparisons of trie sea-ice concentration, wind stress and surface air-temperature spectra showed sea-ice concentration VE has smallest, and wind-stress VE greatest, value in the synoptic time-scales. Conversely, in the 20-25 day window the wind-stress VE is smallest, and sea-ice concentration VE greatest. This “red shift” of the sea-ice concentration suggests it has inertia to the wind slress and temperature Forcing. Resulls show the magnitude of the red shift varies with not only time of year, but also distance from the coast, and is dependent upon the position of the Antarctic circumpolar trough.

Climate Impacts of the Southern Annular Mode Simulated by the CMIP3 Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 3751-3768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Yu Karpechko ◽  
Nathan P. Gillett ◽  
Gareth J. Marshall ◽  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

Abstract The southern annular mode (SAM) has a well-established impact on climate in the Southern Hemisphere. The strongest response in surface air temperature (SAT) is observed in the Antarctic, but the SAM’s area of influence extends much farther, with statistically significant effects on temperature and precipitation being detected as far north as 20°S. Here the authors quantify the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled climate models to simulate the observed SAT, total precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice concentration responses to the SAM. The models are able to simulate the spatial pattern of response in SAT reasonably well; however, all models underestimate the magnitude of the response over Antarctica, both at the surface and in the free troposphere. This underestimation of the temperature response has implications for prediction of the future temperature changes associated with expected changes in the SAM. The models possess reasonable skill in simulating patterns of precipitation and SST response; however, some considerable regional deviations exist. The simulated precipitation and SST responses are less constrained by the observations than the SAT response, particularly in magnitude, as significant discrepancies are detected between the responses in the reference datasets. The largest problems are identified in simulating the sea ice response to the SAM, with some models even simulating a response that is negatively correlated with that observed.

scholarly journals Validation of reanalysis Southern Ocean atmosphere trends using sea ice data

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (23) ◽  
pp. 14757-14768
Author(s):  
William R. Hobbs ◽  
Andrew R. Klekociuk ◽  
Yuhang Pan
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Close Coupling ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Temperature Trends

Abstract. Reanalysis products are an invaluable tool for representing variability and long-term trends in regions with limited in situ data, and especially the Antarctic. A comparison of eight different reanalysis products shows large differences in sea level pressure and surface air temperature trends over the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with implications for studies of the atmosphere's role in driving ocean–sea ice changes. In this study, we use the established close coupling between sea ice cover and surface temperature to evaluate these reanalysis trends using the independent, 30-year sea ice record from 1980 to 2010. We demonstrate that sea ice trends are a reliable validation tool for most months of the year, although the sea ice–surface temperature coupling is weakest in summer when the surface energy budget is dominated by atmosphere-to-ocean heat fluxes. Based on our analysis, we find that surface air temperature trends in JRA55 are most consistent with satellite-observed sea ice trends over the polar waters of the Southern Ocean.

scholarly journals Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7767-7782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Torge Martin ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The existence of such centennial variability is supported by the instrumental sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a multimillennial reconstruction of Tasmanian summer temperatures from tree rings, and a millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The model variability was previously shown to be linked to changes in Weddell Sea deep convection. During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. A strong sensitivity of the time scale to model formulation is noted. In the KCM, the centennial variability is associated with global-average surface air temperature (SAT) changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree per century. The model results thus suggest that internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean should be considered in addition to other internal variability and external forcing when discussing the climate of the twentieth century and projecting that of the twenty-first century.

Seasonal Relationships between Large-Scale Climate Variability and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 5451-5469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham R. Simpkins ◽  
Laura M. Ciasto ◽  
David. W. J. Thompson ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract The observed relationships between anomalous Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the leading patterns of Southern Hemisphere (SH) large-scale climate variability are examined as a function of season over 1980–2008. Particular emphasis is placed on 1) the interactions between SIC, the southern annular mode (SAM), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and 2) the contribution of these two leading modes to the 29-yr trends in sea ice. Regression, composite, and principal component analyses highlight a seasonality in SH sea ice–atmosphere interactions, whereby Antarctic sea ice variability exhibits the strongest linkages to the SAM and ENSO during the austral cold season months. As noted in previous work, a dipole in SIC anomalies emerges in relation to the SAM, characterized by centers of action located near the Bellingshausen/Weddell and Amundsen/eastern Ross Seas. The structure and magnitude of this SIC dipole is found to vary considerably as a function of season, consistent with the seasonality of the overlying atmospheric circulation anomalies. Relative to the SAM, the pattern of sea ice anomalies linked to ENSO exhibits a similar seasonality but tends to be weaker in amplitude and more diffuse in structure. The relationships between ENSO and sea ice also exhibit a substantial nonlinear component, highlighting the need to consider both season and phase of the ENSO cycle when diagnosing ENSO–SIC linkages. Trends in SIC over 1980–2008 are not significantly related to trends in either the SAM or ENSO during any season, including austral summer when the trend in the SAM is most pronounced.

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