scholarly journals Effects of Surface Orography and Land–Sea Contrast on the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent: A Numerical Study Using ECHAM5-SIT

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (23) ◽  
pp. 9725-9741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan-Ling Tseng ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Chiung-Wen June Chang ◽  
Ben-Jei Tsuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Wave Structure ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Zonal Scale ◽  
Accurate Forecast

This study uses the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 coupled with the newly developed Snow–Ice–Thermocline model (ECHAM5-SIT) to examine the effects of orography and land–sea contrast on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the Maritime Continent (MC) during boreal winter. The ECHAM5-SIT is one of the few AGCMs that realistically simulate the major characteristics of the MJO. Three experiments are conducted with realistic topography, without orography, and with oceans only in the MC region to evaluate the relative effects of orography and land–sea contrast. Orography and land–sea contrast have the following effects on the MJO in the MC: 1) a larger amplitude, 2) a smaller zonal scale, 3) more realistic periodicity and stronger eastward-propagating signals, 4) a stronger southward detour during the eastward propagation, 5) a distorted coupled Kelvin–Rossby wave structure, and 6) larger low-level moisture convergence. The existence of mountainous islands also enhances the mean westerly in the eastern Indian Ocean and the western MC, as well as the moisture content over the MC. This enhancement of mean states contributes to the stronger eastward-propagating MJO. The findings herein suggest that theoretical and empirical studies, which are largely derived from an aquaplanet framework, have likely provided an oversimplified view of the MJO. The effects of mountainous islands should be considered for better understanding and more accurate forecast of the MJO.

scholarly journals Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 4932-4945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Random Perturbations ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Bivariate Correlation ◽  
Forecast Lead Time

Abstract An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990–99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent—an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20–25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Assessing the role of air-sea coupling in predicting Madden-Julian Oscillation with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-58
Author(s):  
Jiye Wu ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Xianan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Asymmetric Structure ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Weather Extremes

AbstractThe Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides an important source of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. Improved MJO prediction can be beneficial to S2S prediction of global climate and associated weather extremes. In this study, hindcasts based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) are compared to those based on atmosphere general circulation models (AGCMs) to investigate influences of air-sea interactions on MJO prediction. Our results suggest that MJO prediction skill can be extended about one week longer in the CGCM hindcasts than AGCM-only experiments, particularly for boreal winter predictions.Further analysis suggests that improved MJO prediction in the CGCM is closely associated with improved representation of moistening processes. Compared to the AGCM experiments, the CGCM better predicts the boundary-layer moisture preconditioning to the east of MJO convection, which is generally considered crucial for triggering MJO deep convection. Meanwhile, the widely extended east-west asymmetric structure in free-tropospheric moisture tendency anomalies relative to the MJO convection center as seen in the observations is also well predicted in the CGCM. Improved prediction of MJO moisture processes in CGCM is closely associated with better representation of the zonal scale of MJO circulation and stronger Kelvin waves to the east of MJO convection, both of which have been recently suggested conductive for MJO eastward propagation. The above improvements by including air-sea coupling could be largely attributed to the realistic MJO-induced SST fluctuations through the convection-SST feedback. This study confirms a critical role of atmosphere-ocean coupling for the improvement of MJO prediction.

scholarly journals Dominant Interannual Covariations of the East Asian–Australian Land Precipitation during Boreal Winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3279-3296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
Second Mode ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe present study applies the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to investigate the interannual covariations of East Asian–Australian land precipitation (EAALP) during boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis datasets. The first mode of EAALP variations is characterized by opposite-sign anomalies between East Asia (EA) and Australia (AUS). The second mode features an anomaly pattern over EA similar to the first mode, but with a southwest–northeast dipole structure over AUS. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be a primary factor in modulating the interannual variations of land precipitation over EA and western AUS. By comparison, the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode (IOSD) plays an important role in the formation of precipitation anomalies over northeastern AUS, mainly through a zonal vertical circulation spanning from the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) to northern AUS. In addition, the ENSO-independent cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) impact the formation of the second mode. Using the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, three 40-yr numerical simulation experiments differing in specified SST forcings verify the impacts of the IOSD and WNP SST anomalies. Further composite analyses indicate that the dominant patterns of EAALP variability are largely determined by the out-of-phase and in-phase combinations of ENSO and IOSD. These results suggest that in addition to ENSO, IOSD should be considered as another crucial factor influencing the EAALP variability during the boreal winter, which has large implications for improved prediction of EAALP land precipitation on the interannual time scale.

scholarly journals Impacts of the Tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean Associated Mode on Madden–Julian Oscillation over the Maritime Continent in Boreal Winter

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1049
Author(s):  
Xin Li ◽  
Ming Yin ◽  
Xiong Chen ◽  
Minghao Yang ◽  
Fei Xia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Based on the observation and reanalysis data, the relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode was analyzed. The results showed that the MJO over the MC region (95°–150° E, 10° S–10° N) (referred to as the MC–MJO) possesses prominent interannual and interdecadal variations and seasonally “phase-locked” features. MC–MJO is strongest in the boreal winter and weakest in the boreal summer. Winter MC–MJO kinetic energy variation has significant relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in autumn, but it correlates better with the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode (PIOAM). The correlation coefficient between the winter MC–MJO kinetic energy index and the autumn PIOAM index is as high as −0.5. This means that when the positive (negative) autumn PIOAM anomaly strengthens, the MJO kinetic energy over the winter MC region weakens (strengthens). However, the correlation between the MC–MJO convection and PIOAM in winter is significantly weaker. The propagation of MJO over the Maritime Continent differs significantly in the contrast phases of PIOAM. During the positive phase of the PIOAM, the eastward propagation of the winter MJO kinetic energy always fails to move across the MC region and cannot enter the western Pacific. However, during the negative phase of the PIOAM, the anomalies of MJO kinetic energy over the MC is not significantly weakened, and MJO can propagate farther eastward and enter the western Pacific. It should be noted that MJO convection is more likely to extend to the western Pacific in the positive phases of PIOAM than in the negative phases. This is significant different with the propagation of the MJO kinetic energy.

Event detection and visualization of ocean eddies simulated by ocean general circulation model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950018
Author(s):  
Daisuke Matsuoka ◽  
Fumiaki Araki ◽  
Hideharu Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Numerical study of ocean eddies has been carried out by using high-resolution ocean general circulation models. In order to understand ocean eddies from the large volume data produced by simulations, visualizing only eddy distribution at each time step is insufficient; time-variations in eddy events and phenomena must also be considered. However, existing methods cannot precisely find and track eddy events such as amalgamation and bifurcation. In this study, we propose an original approach for eddy detection, tracking, and event visualization based on an eddy classification system. The proposed method detects streams and currents as well as eddies, and it classifies discovered eddies into several categories using the additional stream and current information. By tracking how the classified eddies vary over time, detecting events such as eddy amalgamation and bifurcation as well as the interaction between eddies and ocean currents becomes achievable. We adopt the proposed method for two ocean areas in which strong ocean currents exist as case studies. We visualize the detected eddies and events in a time series of images, allowing us to acquire an intuitive understanding of a region of interest concealed in a high-resolution data set. Furthermore, our proposed method succeeded in clarifying the occurrence place and seasonality of each type of eddy event.

scholarly journals Modelling the wintertime response to upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone anomalies over the North Atlantic and Europe

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2107-2118 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Kirchner ◽  
D. Peters
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. During boreal winter months, mean longitude-dependent ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are mainly caused by different ozone transport by planetary waves. The response to radiative perturbation induced by these ozone changes near the tropopause on the circulation is unclear. This response is investigated with the ECHAM4 general circulation model in a sensitivity study. In the simulation two different mean January realizations of the ozone field are implemented in ECHAM4. Both ozone fields are estimated on the basis of the observed mean January planetary wave structure of the 1980s. The first field represents a 14-year average (reference, 1979–1992) and the second one represents the mean ozone field change (anomaly, 1988–92) in boreal extra-tropics during the end of the 1980s. The model runs were carried out pairwise, with identical initial conditions for both ozone fields. Five statistically independent experiments were performed, forced with the observed sea surface temperatures for the period 1988 to 1992. The results support the hypothesis that the zonally asymmetric ozone changes of the 80s triggered a systematic alteration of the circulation over the North Atlantic – European region. It is suggested that this feedback process is important for the understanding of the decadal coupling between troposphere and stratosphere, as well as between subtropics and extra-tropics in winter.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation; radiative processes; synoptic-scale meteorology)

scholarly journals Forecast Skill of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Two Canadian Atmospheric Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4130-4149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Lin ◽  
Gilbert Brunet ◽  
Jacques Derome
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Abstract The output of two global atmospheric models participating in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) is utilized to assess the forecast skill of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The two models are the third generation of the general circulation model (GCM3) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) and the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model of Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN). Space–time spectral analysis of the daily precipitation in near-equilibrium integrations reveals that GEM has a better representation of the convectively coupled equatorial waves including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves. An objective of this study is to examine how the MJO forecast skill is influenced by the model’s ability in representing the convectively coupled equatorial waves. The observed MJO signal is measured by a bivariate index that is obtained by projecting the combined fields of the 15°S–15°N meridionally averaged precipitation rate and the zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa onto the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) structures as derived using the same meridionally averaged variables following a similar approach used recently by Wheeler and Hendon. The forecast MJO index, on the other hand, is calculated by projecting the forecast variables onto the same two EOFs. With the HFP2 hindcast output spanning 35 yr, for the first time the MJO forecast skill of dynamical models is assessed over such a long time period with a significant and robust result. The result shows that the GEM model produces a significantly better level of forecast skill for the MJO in the first 2 weeks. The difference is larger in Northern Hemisphere winter than in summer, when the correlation skill score drops below 0.50 at a lead time of 10 days for GEM whereas it is at 6 days for GCM3. At lead times longer than about 15 days, GCM3 performs slightly better. There are some features that are common for the two models. The forecast skill is better in winter than in summer. Forecasts initialized with a large amplitude for the MJO are found to be more skillful than those with a weak MJO signal in the initial conditions. The forecast skill is dependent on the phase of the MJO at the initial conditions. Forecasts initialized with an MJO that has an active convection in tropical Africa and the Indian Ocean sector have a better level of forecast skill than those initialized with a different phase of the MJO.

scholarly journals Influence of the Seasonal Cycle on the Termination of El Niño Events in a Coupled General Circulation Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1850-1868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Lengaigne ◽  
Jean-Philippe Boulanger ◽  
Christophe Menkes ◽  
Hilary Spencer
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Coupled General Circulation Model ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract In this study, the mechanisms leading to the El Niño peak and demise are explored through a coupled general circulation model ensemble approach evaluated against observations. The results here suggest that the timing of the peak and demise for intense El Niño events is highly predictable as the evolution of the coupled system is strongly driven by a southward shift of the intense equatorial Pacific westerly anomalies during boreal winter. In fact, this systematic late-year shift drives an intense eastern Pacific thermocline shallowing, constraining a rapid El Niño demise in the following months. This wind shift results from a southward displacement in winter of the central Pacific warmest SSTs in response to the seasonal evolution of solar insolation. In contrast, the intensity of this seasonal feedback mechanism and its impact on the coupled system are significantly weaker in moderate El Niño events, resulting in a less pronounced thermocline shallowing. This shallowing transfers the coupled system into an unstable state in spring but is not sufficient to systematically constrain the equatorial Pacific evolution toward a rapid El Niño termination. However, for some moderate events, the occurrence of intense easterly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific during that period initiate a rapid surge of cold SSTs leading to La Niña conditions. In other cases, weaker trade winds combined with a slightly deeper thermocline allow the coupled system to maintain a broad warm phase evolving through the entire spring and summer and a delayed El Niño demise, an evolution that is similar to the prolonged 1986/87 El Niño event. La Niña events also show a similar tendency to peak in boreal winter, with characteristics and mechanisms mainly symmetric to those described for moderate El Niño cases.

Mechanisms of Northern Tropical Atlantic Variability and Response to CO2 Doubling

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2691-2705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wim-Paul Breugem ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger ◽  
Reindert J. Haarsma
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Wes Feedback ◽  
Meridional Mode ◽  
Northern Tropical Atlantic

Abstract A model study has been made of the mechanisms of the meridional mode in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) and the response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The numerical model consists of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a passive mixed layer model for the ocean. Results from two simulations are shown: a control run with present-day atmospheric CO2 and a run with a doubled CO2 concentration. The results from the control run show that the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback is confined to the deep NTA. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of the meridional mode is phase locked with the seasonal cycle of the climatological intertropical convergence zone (CITCZ). The WES feedback is positive in boreal winter and spring when the CITCZ is located close to the equator but negative in summer and fall when the CITCZ shifts toward the north of the deep NTA. Similarly, the damping of the SST anomalies in the deep NTA by moisture-induced evaporation anomalies is much stronger in summer and fall than in winter and spring, related to a change in anomalous moisture transport. The results from the double-CO2 run show a substantial northward shift of the CITCZ in boreal winter and spring but little change in summer and fall. The change in the CITCZ can be explained by strong warming at the high northern latitudes in combination with a seasonally dependent WES feedback with accompanying changes in moisture transport in the deep NTA. The latter indicates that the change in the CITCZ is subject to phase locking with the seasonal cycle of the CITCZ itself. The meridional mode in the double-CO2 run weakens by 10%–20%. This originates from the weakening of the positive WES feedback in the deep NTA, which in turn is attributed to the northward shift of the CITCZ; because in the double-CO2 run the CITCZ stays south of the deep NTA for a shorter time period, the positive WES feedback in the deep NTA acts less long, and damping by moisture-induced evaporation anomalies starts earlier than in the control run.

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