Testing the Trade Wind Charging Mechanism and Its Influence on ENSO Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7391-7411
Author(s):  
Soumi Chakravorty ◽  
Renellys C. Perez ◽  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Benjamin S. Giese ◽  
Sarah M. Larson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractDuring the positive phase of the North Pacific Oscillation, westerly wind anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific substantially increase subsurface heat content along the equator by “trade wind charging” (TWC). TWC provides a direct pathway between extratropical atmospheric circulation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) initiation. Previous model studies of this mechanism lacked the ocean–atmospheric coupling needed for ENSO growth, so it is crucial to examine whether TWC-induced heat content anomalies develop into ENSO events in a coupled model. Here, coupled model experiments, forced with TWC favorable (+TWC) or unfavorable (−TWC) wind stress, are used to examine the ENSO response to TWC. The forcing is imposed on the ocean component of the model through the first winter and then the model evolves in a fully coupled configuration through the following winter. The +TWC (−TWC) forcing consistently charges (discharges) the equatorial Pacific in spring and generates positive (negative) subsurface temperature anomalies. These subsurface temperature anomalies advect eastward and upward along the equatorial thermocline and emerge as like-signed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific, creating favorable conditions upon which coupled air–sea feedback can act. During the fully coupled stage, warm SST anomalies in +TWC forced simulations are amplified by coupled feedbacks and lead to El Niño events. However, while −TWC forcing results in cool SST anomalies, pre-existing warm SST anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific persist and induce local westerly wind anomalies that prevent consistent development of La Niña conditions. While the TWC mechanism provides adequate equatorial heat content to fuel ENSO development, other factors also play a role in determining whether an ENSO event develops.

Role of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation in the Tropical Pacific SST Changes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2019-2034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingzhi Su ◽  
Huijun Wang ◽  
Haijun Yang ◽  
Helge Drange ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract A coupled climate model is used to explore the response of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) to positive SST anomalies in the global extratropics. The main model results here are consistent with previous numerical studies. In response to prescribed SST anomalies in the extratropics, the tropical SSTs rise rapidly and reach a quasi-equilibrium state within several years, and the tropical subsurface temperatures show a slow response. The annual-mean Hadley cell, as well as the surface trades, are weakened. The weakened trades reduce the poleward Ekman transports in the tropical ocean and, furthermore, lead to anomalous positive convergences of heat transport, which is the main mechanism for maintaining the tropical Pacific SST warming. The process of an extratropical influence on the tropics is related to both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moves southward and eastward in the Pacific, corresponding to a reduction of the Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. At the same time, convective precipitation anomalies are formed on the boundary of the climatological ITCZ, while the climatological mean convections centered in the Southeast Asia region are suppressed. The largely delayed response of the tropical subsurface temperature cannot be explained only by the strength change of the subtropical cells (STCs), but can be traced back to the slow changing of subsurface temperature in the extratropics. In the extratropical oceans, warming and freshening reduce the surface water density, and the outcropping lines of certain isopycnal layers are moved poleward. This poleward movement of outcropping lines can weaken the positive temperature anomalies, or even lead to negative anomalies, on given isopycnal layers. Displayed on time-dependent isopycnal layers, positive subsurface temperature anomalies are present only in the region after subduction, and are subsequently replaced by negative temperature anomalies in the deep tropics regions. The noticeable features of the density compensation of temperature and salinity indicate that diapycnal processes play an important role in the equatorward transport of the temperature and salinity anomalies from the midlatitude.

Diverse influences of spring Arctic Oscillation on the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation in CMIP5 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqiong Zheng
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Sst Cooling

<p>This study evaluates the ability of 35 climate models, which participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical climate simulations, in reproducing the connection between boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spring AO-winter ENSO correlations range from -0.41 to 0.44 among the 35 models for the period of 1958-2005. Ensemble means of the models with significant positive and negative AO-ENSO correlations both show strong spring sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the subtropical North Pacific during a positive phase of spring AO, which is conducive to occurrence of a La Niña event in the following winter. However, the models with positive AO-ENSO relations produce a pronounced spring cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical northwestern Pacific and westerly anomalies over the tropical western Pacific (TWP). These westerly wind anomalies would lead to SST warming and positive precipitation anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) during the following summer, which could maintain and develop into an El Niño-like pattern in the following winter via a positive air-sea feedback. By contrast, the models with negative AO-ENSO connections fail to reproduce the spring AO-related cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical northwestern Pacific and westerly wind anomalies in the TWP. Thus, these models would produce a La Niña-like pattern in the subsequent winter. Difference in the spring AO-associated atmospheric anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific among the CMIP5 models may be attributed to biases of the models in simulating the spring climatological storm track.</p>

scholarly journals Decadal Variability of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Associated with Meridional Shifts of Western Boundary Current Extensions in the North Pacific

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6247-6264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bunmei Taguchi ◽  
Niklas Schneider ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
Hideharu Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Frontal Zone ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
Subarctic Frontal Zone ◽  
The North Pacific

Generation and propagation processes of upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Pacific are investigated using oceanic subsurface observations and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast simulation. OHC anomalies are decomposed into physically distinct dynamical components (OHC ρ) due to temperature anomalies that are associated with density anomalies and spiciness components (OHC χ) due to temperature anomalies that are density compensating with salinity. Analysis of the observational and model data consistently shows that both dynamical and spiciness components contribute to interannual–decadal OHC variability, with the former (latter) component dominating in the subtropical (subpolar) North Pacific. OHC ρ variability represents heaving of thermocline, propagates westward, and intensifies along the Kuroshio Extension, consistent with jet-trapped Rossby waves, while OHC χ variability propagates eastward along the subarctic frontal zone, suggesting advection by mean eastward currents. OHC χ variability tightly corresponds in space to horizontal mean spiciness gradients. Meanwhile, area-averaged OHC χ anomalies in the western subarctic frontal zone closely correspond in time to meridional shifts of the subarctic frontal zone. Regression coefficient of the OHC χ time series on the frontal displacement anomalies quantitatively agree with the area-averaged mean spiciness gradient in the region, and suggest that OHC χ is generated via frontal variability in the subarctic frontal zone.

scholarly journals Can a Regional Ocean–Atmosphere Coupled Model Improve the Simulation of the Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 2353-2367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Zou ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Land System ◽  
Anomalous Anticyclone ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A flexible regional ocean–atmosphere–land system coupled model [Flexible Regional Ocean Atmosphere Land System (FROALS)] was developed through the Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil, version 3 (OASIS3), coupler to improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM). The regionally coupled model consists of a regional atmospheric model, the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), and a global climate ocean model, the National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Climate Ocean Model (LICOM). The impacts of local air–sea interaction on the simulation of the interannual variability of the WNPSM are investigated through regionally ocean–atmosphere coupled and uncoupled simulations, with a focus on El Niño’s decaying summer. Compared with the uncoupled simulation, the regionally coupled simulation exhibits improvements in both the climatology and the interannual variability of rainfall over the WNP. In El Niño’s decaying summer, the WNP is dominated by an anomalous anticyclone, less rainfall, and enhanced subsidence, which lead to increases in the downward shortwave radiation flux, thereby warming sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Thus, the ocean appears as a slave to atmospheric forcing. In the uncoupled simulation, however, the atmosphere is a slave to oceanic SST forcing, with the warm SST anomalies located east of the Philippines unrealistically producing excessive rainfall. In the regionally coupled run, the unrealistic positive rainfall anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulations east of the Philippines are significantly improved, highlighting the importance of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the interannual variability of the WNPSM. One limitation of the model is that the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP is weaker than the observations in both the regionally coupled and the uncoupled simulations. This results from the weaker simulated climatological summer rainfall intensity over the monsoon trough.

scholarly journals Cold Tongue and Warm Pool ENSO Events in CMIP5: Mean State and Future Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 2861-2885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Alexander Sen Gupta ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.

Future changes in ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America in CMIP6 simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Beverley ◽  
Mat Collins ◽  
Hugo Lambert ◽  
Rob Chadwick
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Pacific

<p>El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has major impacts on the weather and climate across many regions of the world. Understanding how these teleconnections may change in the future is therefore an important area of research. Here, we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to investigate future changes in ENSO teleconnections in the North Pacific/North America sector.</p><p>Precipitation over the equatorial Pacific associated with ENSO is projected to shift eastwards under global warming as a result of greater warming in the east Pacific, which reduces the barrier to convection as the warm pool expands eastwards. As a result, there is medium confidence (IPCC AR5 report) that ENSO teleconnections will shift eastwards in the North Pacific/North America sector. In the CMIP6 models, the present day teleconnection is relatively well simulated, with most models showing an anomalously deep Aleutian low and associated positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America in El Niño years. In the future warming simulations (we use abrupt-4xCO2, in which CO2 concentrations are immediately quadrupled from the global annual mean 1850 value), in agreement with the IPCC AR5 report, the North America teleconnection and associated circulation change is shifted eastwards in most models. However, it is also significantly weaker, with the result that the positive temperature anomalies in El Niño years over North America are much reduced. This weakening is seen both in models with a projected increase and projected decrease in the amplitude of future El Niño events. The mechanisms related to these projected changes, along with potential implications for future long range predictability over North America, will be discussed.</p>

Subsurface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean associated with the ENSO cycle

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1304-1315
Author(s):  
Yongli Chen ◽  
Yongping Zhao ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
Jiajia Hao ◽  
Junqiao Feng
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
pp. 3541-3564 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Zhang ◽  
M. J. Harrison ◽  
A. Rosati ◽  
A. Wittenberg
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract A fully coupled data assimilation (CDA) system, consisting of an ensemble filter applied to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s global fully coupled climate model (CM2), has been developed to facilitate the detection and prediction of seasonal-to-multidecadal climate variability and climate trends. The assimilation provides a self-consistent, temporally continuous estimate of the coupled model state and its uncertainty, in the form of discrete ensemble members, which can be used directly to initialize probabilistic climate forecasts. Here, the CDA is evaluated using a series of perfect model experiments, in which a particular twentieth-century simulation—with temporally varying greenhouse gas and natural aerosol radiative forcings—serves as a “truth” from which observations are drawn, according to the actual ocean observing network for the twentieth century. These observations are then assimilated into a coupled model ensemble that is subjected only to preindustrial forcings. By examining how well this analysis ensemble reproduces the “truth,” the skill of the analysis system in recovering anthropogenically forced trends and natural climate variability is assessed, given the historical observing network. The assimilation successfully reconstructs the twentieth-century ocean heat content variability and trends in most locations. The experiments highlight the importance of maintaining key physical relationships among model fields, which are associated with water masses in the ocean and geostrophy in the atmosphere. For example, when only oceanic temperatures are assimilated, the ocean analysis is greatly improved by incorporating the temperature–salinity covariance provided by the analysis ensemble. Interestingly, wind observations are more helpful than atmospheric temperature observations for constructing the structure of the tropical atmosphere; the opposite holds for the extratropical atmosphere. The experiments indicate that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is difficult to constrain using the twentieth-century observational network, but there is hope that additional observations—including those from the newly deployed Argo profiles—may lessen this problem in the twenty-first century. The challenges for data assimilation of model systematic biases and evolving observing systems are discussed.

On the Joint Role of Subtropical Atmospheric Variability and Equatorial Subsurface Heat Content Anomalies in Initiating the Onset of ENSO Events

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 1593-1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce T. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Western Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Central North Pacific

Abstract Previous research has shown that seasonal mean variations in both the subtropical/extratropical sea level pressures over the central North Pacific and the subsurface heat content anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific are significantly related to the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 12–18 months later. Here we find that positive (negative) subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific during boreal summer/fall, followed by negative (positive) anomalies in the sea level pressure fields over the subtropical central North Pacific during boreal winter, tend to result in positive (negative) mature ENSO events 12–15 months later (i.e., during the following boreal winter). When the intervening sea level pressure anomalies are of the same sign as the preceding heat-content anomalies, the correlation between the heat-content anomalies and the following boreal-winter ENSO state disappears. There is still some relation between the boreal-winter sea level pressure anomalies and the ENSO state the following year when the two precursor patterns are of the same sign; however, the correlation is smaller and the ENSO events tend to be weaker. Additional analysis indicates that the two precursor fields are related to one another; however, the sea level pressure variations contain more unique information about, and provide better predictability of, the state of the following ENSO system than do the heat content anomalies.

The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 643-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hein Zelle ◽  
Gerrian Appeldoorn ◽  
Gerrit Burgers ◽  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The time dependence of the local relation between sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is analyzed for the period 1990–99, using subsurface temperature measurements from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean Array/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TAO/TRITON) buoy array. Thermocline depth anomalies lead SST anomalies in time, with a longitude-dependent delay ranging from 2 weeks in the eastern Pacific to 1 year in the central Pacific. The lagged correlation between thermocline depth and SST is strong, ranging from r > 0.9 in the east to r ≈ 0.6 at 170°W. Time-lagged correlations between thermocline depth and subsurface temperature anomalies indicate vertical advection of temperature anomalies from the thermocline to the surface in the eastern Pacific. The measurements are compared with the results of forced OGCM and linear model experiments. Using model results, it is shown that the delay between thermocline depth and SST is caused mainly by upwelling and mixing between 140° and 90°W. Between 170°E and 140°W the delay has a different explanation: thermocline depth anomalies travel to the eastern Pacific, where upwelling creates SST anomalies that in turn cause anomalous wind in the central Pacific. SST is then influenced by these wind anomalies.

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