Risk of Extreme Precipitation under Nonstationarity Conditions during the Second Flood Season in the Southeastern Coastal Region of China

Abstract This study analyzes the variation and risk changes of extreme precipitation under nonstationarity conditions using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. The extreme precipitation series is extracted from the observations during the second flood season (July–September) from 1960 to 2012 derived from 86 meteorological stations in the southeastern coastal region of China. The trend of mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of extreme precipitation is detected by MK. Ten large-scale circulation variables and four greenhouse gases are selected to construct a climate change index and a human activity index, which are based on principal component analysis. The recurrence risk of extreme precipitation is calculated by GAMLSS while considering climate changes and human activities. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity characteristic of extreme precipitation is widespread in this region. A significant increasing trend of Mn is found in Shanghai, eastern Zhejiang, and northern and southern Fujian. An enhanced Var is found in eastern Guangdong. A significant positive correlation exists between climate changes/human activities and Mn/Var, especially in Zhejiang and Fujian. Generally, the contribution of climate changes and human activities to Mn is greater than it is to Var. In this region, the precipitation amount of high-frequency (2-yr return period) and low-frequency (100-yr return period) events increases from inland to coastal and from north to south. The government should pay careful attention to these trends because the intensity of extreme precipitation events and their secondary disasters could result in serious losses.

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Multi-Indicator Evaluation for Extreme Precipitation Events in the Past 60 Years over the Loess Plateau

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010193 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 193 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Chaoxing Sun ◽

Guohe Huang ◽

Yurui Fan

Keyword(s):

Loess Plateau ◽

Return Period ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Daily Precipitation Data ◽

Joint Return ◽

Precipitation Events

The unique characteristics of topography, landforms, and climate in the Loess Plateau make it especially important to investigate its extreme precipitation characteristics. Daily precipitation data of Loess Plateau covering a period of 1959–2017 are applied to evaluate the probability features of five precipitation indicators: the amount of extreme heavy precipitation (P95), the days with extreme heavy precipitation, the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation (I95), the continuous dry days, and the annual total precipitation. In addition, the joint risk of different combinations of precipitation indices is quantitatively evaluated based on the copula method. Moreover, the risk and severity of each extreme heavy precipitation factor corresponding to 50-year joint return period are achieved through inverse derivation process. Results show that the precipitation amount and intensity of the Loess Plateau vary greatly in spatial distribution. The annual precipitation in the northwest region may be too concentrated in several rainstorms, which makes the region in a serious drought state for most of the year. At the level of 10-year return period, more than five months with no precipitation events would occur in the Northwest Loess Plateau. While, P95 or I95 events of 100-year level may be encountered in a 50-year return period and in the southeastern region, which means there are foreseeable long-term extreme heavy precipitation events.

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Temporal and spatial variation of extreme precipitation events in flood season over Three Gorges Reservoir area in recent 50 a

Journal of Lake Sciences ◽

10.18307/2012.0212 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

pp. 244-251

Author(s):

LIU Xiaoran ◽

◽

CHENG Bingyan ◽

YANG Qian ◽

GUO Qu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variation ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Three Gorges Reservoir ◽

Three Gorges Reservoir Area ◽

Three Gorges ◽

Temporal And Spatial Variation ◽

Flood Season ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Temporal And Spatial ◽

Precipitation Events

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The Contributions of Climate Changes and Human Activities to Long-Term Variations in Lake Sediments Based on Results from Generalized Additive Models

Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s11269-018-2167-2 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 33 (3) ◽

pp. 1069-1085 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zhuoshi He ◽

Shouliang Huo ◽

Chunzi Ma ◽

Hanxiao Zhang ◽

Da An ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lake Sediments ◽

Human Activities ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Additive Models ◽

Long Term Variations

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Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast United States: 1979–2014

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-18-0155.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (4) ◽

pp. 673-689 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Macy E. Howarth ◽

Christopher D. Thorncroft ◽

Lance F. Bosart

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Warm Season ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Northeast United States ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Increasing Trends

Abstract Extreme precipitation can have significant adverse impacts on infrastructure and property, human health, and local economies. This paper examines recent changes in extreme precipitation in the northeast United States. Daily station data from 58 stations missing less than 5% of days for the years 1979–2014 from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze extreme precipitation, defined as the top 1% of days with precipitation. A statistically significant (95% confidence level) increasing trend of the threshold for the top 1% of extreme precipitation events was found (0.3 mm yr−1). This increasing trend was due to both an increase in the frequency of extreme events and the magnitude of extreme events. Rainfall events ≥ 150 mm (24-h accumulation) increased in frequency from 6 events between 1979 and 1996 to 25 events between 1997 and 2014, a 317% increase. The annual daily maximum precipitation, or the highest recorded precipitation amount in a given year, increased by an average of 1.6 mm yr−1, a total increase of 58.0 mm. Decreasing trends in extreme precipitation were observed east of Lake Erie during the warm season. Increasing trends in extreme precipitation were most robust during the fall months of September, October, and November, and particularly at locations further inland. The analysis showed that increases in events that were tropical in nature, or associated with tropical moisture, led to the observed increase in extreme precipitation during the fall months.

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Exposure analysis of Chinese railways under the Change of Extreme-Precipitation in the future

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12428 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jing Zhao ◽

Kai liu ◽

Ming Wang

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Return Period ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Railway Planning ◽

The Future ◽

Railway System ◽

Climate Model Simulations

<p>Abstract: Rainfall-induced disaster is the most frequent disaster affected Chinese Railway System. Climate change will lead to more extreme rainfall in the future. A better understanding of extreme precipitation in the future and the exposure of railway infrastructures to extreme precipitation will facilitate railway planning and disaster risk management. This paper employs climate model simulations to calculate the changes of the extreme precipitation under different global warming scenarios. The return periods of the present 50-yr/100-yr return-period precipitation amount in the future are obtained. Based on this, the changes of the exposure of Chinese railways to extreme precipitation are analyzed. The results reveal that 58.61% (55.46) of China&#8217;s region will experience an increase in the 50-yr(100-yr) return-period precipitation under 1.5&#176;C warming in comparison with the present period (2001&#8211;2020), the value will be 64.44% and 59.53% due to the additional 0.5&#176;C warming. By calculating the exposure of Chinese railways, we found that 28.49% (32.15) of China's railways are in the region where 50-yr return-period rainfall at this stage will occur less than 20 years under 1.5&#176;C (2.0&#176;C) warming, and 36.85% (41.39)of China's railways are in the region where 100-yr return-period rainfall at this stage will occur less than 50 years under 1.5&#176;C (2.0&#176;C) warming in the future. This study quantified the exposure of China&#8217;s railway to extreme precipitation under the 1.5&#176;C/2.0&#176;C global warming. The results provided in this study have profound significance for the fortification planning of China's railway system for rainfall-induced disasters and provide useful experience for other countries.</p>

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Analysis on spatial-temporal variations of the extreme precipitation events during the main flood season in the Huaihe River basin of China

Hydraulic Engineering II ◽

10.1201/b16025-21 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 125-134

Author(s):

Y Zheng ◽

P Zhong ◽

X Wan

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Huaihe River Basin ◽

Huaihe River ◽

Flood Season ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Huaihe River ◽

Precipitation Events

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Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Precipitation Change on Vegetation Activity

Agriculture ◽

10.3390/agriculture11060487 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 487

Author(s):

Fengsong Pei ◽

Yi Zhou ◽

Yan Xia

Keyword(s):

Return Period ◽

Potential Risk ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Period Analysis ◽

Extreme Climate Events ◽

Extreme Climate ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Vegetation Activity ◽

Climate Events ◽

Precipitation Events

Extreme climate events frequently have more severe effects on terrestrial vegetation activity than long-term changes in climate averages. However, changes in extreme climate events as well as their potential risk on vegetation activity are still poorly understood. By using the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLR-YR) in China as an example, this paper aims to understand the vegetation response to changes in extreme precipitation events from 1982 to 2012 using the maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator. By applying extreme value theory (EVT), the potential risks of extreme precipitation events on vegetation activity were analyzed by conducting return period analysis. Results indicated that vegetation activity could be affected by extreme precipitation events, especially the combined effects of the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes. For instance, vegetation activity could be enhanced in the regions with weakened intensity but increased occurrence of extreme precipitation events. In addition, we found potential risk of extreme precipitation events on vegetation activity from the results of precipitation extreme trend and return period analysis. These phenomena can be associated with the local occurrence of extreme precipitation events, different land cover types, and soil moisture cumulative effect on vegetation growth. This study stresses the importance of considering both current changes in and the potential risk of extreme precipitation events to understand their effects on vegetation activity.

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A Diagnostic Examination of Consecutive Extreme Cool-Season Precipitation Events at St. John’s, Newfoundland, in December 2008

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/2010waf2222371.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 25 (4) ◽

pp. 997-1026 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Shawn M. Milrad ◽

Eyad H. Atallah ◽

John R. Gyakum

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Trajectory Analysis ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Cool Season ◽

Typing Method ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Weakly Stable ◽

Baroclinic Zone ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada (CYYT), is frequently affected by extreme precipitation events, particularly in the cool season (October–April). Previous work classified precipitation events at CYYT into categories by precipitation amount and a manual synoptic typing was performed on the 50 median extreme precipitation events, using two separate methods. Here, consecutive extreme precipitation events in December 2008 are analyzed. These events occurred over a 6-day period and produced over 125 mm of precipitation at CYYT. The first manual typing method, using a backward-trajectory analysis, results in both events being classified as “southwest,” which were previously defined as the majority of the backward trajectories originating in the Gulf of Mexico. The second method of manual synoptic typing finds that the first event is classified as a “cyclone,” while the second is a “frontal” event. A synoptic analysis of both events is conducted, highlighting important dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The first event was characterized by strong quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent in a weakly stable atmosphere in association with a rapidly intensifying extratropical cyclone off the coast of North America and transient high values of subtropical moisture. The second event was characterized by primarily frontogenetical forcing for ascent in a weakly stable atmosphere in the presence of quasi-stationary high values of subtropical moisture, in association with a northeast–southwest-oriented baroclinic zone situated near CYYT. In sum, the synoptic structures responsible for the two events highlight rather disparate means to produce an extreme precipitation event at CYYT.

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Global and Regional Projected Changes in 100-yr Subdaily, Daily, and Multiday Precipitation Extremes Estimated from Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0764.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (3) ◽

pp. 1089-1103 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Jean-Luc Martel ◽

Alain Mailhot ◽

François Brissette

Keyword(s):

Return Period ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Design Criteria ◽

Service Levels ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Large Ensembles ◽

Projected Changes

AbstractMany studies have reported projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a warmer future climate. These results challenge the assumption of climate stationarity, a standard hypothesis in the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles (e.g., 100-yr return period) often used as key design criteria for many infrastructures. In this work, changes in hourly to 5-day precipitation extremes occurring between the 1980–99 and 2080–99 periods are investigated using three large ensembles (LE) of climate simulations. The first two are the global CanESM2 50-member ensemble at a 2.8° resolution and the global CESM1 40-member ensemble at a 1° resolution. The third is the regional CRCM5 50-member ensemble at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the 50-member CanESM2 ensemble over the northeastern North America (NNA) and Europe (EU) domains. Results indicate increases in the frequency of future extreme events, and, accordingly, a reduction of the return period of current extreme events for all tested spatial resolutions and temporal scales. Agreement between the three ensembles suggests that extreme precipitations, corresponding to the 100-yr return period over the reference period, become 4–5 (2–4) times more frequent on average for the NNA (EU) domain for daily and 5-day annual maximum precipitation. Projections by CRCM5-LE show even larger increases for subdaily precipitation extremes. Considering the life-span of many public infrastructures, these changes may have important implications on service levels and the design of many water infrastructures and for public safety, and should therefore be taken into consideration in establishing design criteria.

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