scholarly journals Impact of Storm-Scale Lightning Data Assimilation on WRF-ARW Precipitation Forecasts during the 2013 Warm Season over the Contiguous United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre O. Fierro ◽  
Adam J. Clark ◽  
Edward R. Mansell ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman ◽  
Scott R. Dembek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Large Scale Model ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Assimilation Scheme

Abstract This work evaluates the performance of a recently developed cloud-scale lightning data assimilation technique implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model running at convection-allowing scales (4-km grid spacing). Data provided by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network for the contiguous United States (CONUS) were assimilated in real time over 67 days spanning the 2013 warm season (May–July). The lightning data were assimilated during the first 2 h of simulations each day. Bias-corrected, neighborhood-based, equitable threat scores (BC-ETSs) were the chief metric used to quantify the skill of the forecasts utilizing this assimilation scheme. Owing to inferior observational data quality over mountainous terrain, this evaluation focused on the eastern two-thirds of the United States. During the first 3 h following the assimilation (i.e., 3-h forecasts), all the simulations suffered from a high wet bias in forecasted accumulated precipitation (APCP), particularly for the lightning assimilation run (LIGHT). Forecasts produced by LIGHT, however, had a noticeable, statistically significant (α = 0.05) improvement over those by the control run (CTRL) up to 6 h into the forecast with BC-ETS differences often exceeding 0.4. This improvement was seen independently of the APCP threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 50 mm) and the neighborhood radius (ranging from 0 to 40 km) selected. Past 6 h of the forecast, the APCP fields from LIGHT progressively converged to that of CTRL probably due to the longer-term evolution being bounded by the large-scale model environment. Thus, this computationally inexpensive lightning assimilation scheme shows considerable promise for routinely improving short-term (≤6 h) forecasts of high-impact weather by convection-allowing forecast models.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of 0–12-h Warm-Season Precipitation Forecasts over the Central United States to Model Initialization

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 832-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Stanley B. Trier ◽  
Qingnong Xiao ◽  
Morris L. Weisman ◽  
Hongli Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Scale Model

Abstract Sensitivity of 0–12-h warm-season precipitation forecasts to atmospheric initial conditions, including those from different large-scale model analyses and from rapid cycled (RC) three-dimensional variational data assimilations (3DVAR) with and without radar data, is investigated for a 6-day period during the International H2O Project. Neighborhood-based precipitation verification is used to compare forecasts made with the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). Three significant convective episodes are examined by comparing the precipitation patterns and locations from different forecast experiments. From two of these three case studies, causes for the success and failure of the RC data assimilation in improving forecast skill are shown. Results indicate that the use of higher-resolution analysis in the initialization, rapid update cycling via WRF 3DVAR data assimilation, and the additional assimilation of radar observations each play a role in shortening the period of the initial precipitation spinup as well as in placing storms closer to observations, thus improving precipitation forecast skill by up to 8–9 h. Impacts of data assimilation differ for forecasts initialized at 0000 and 1200 UTC. The case studies show that the pattern and location of the forecasted precipitation were noticeably improved with radar data assimilation for the two late afternoon cases that featured lines of convection driven by surface-based cold pools. In contrast, the RC 3DVAR, both with and without radar data, had negative impacts on convective forecasts for a case of morning elevated convection associated with a midlatitude short-wave trough.

Quality Control of Data in a Large-Scale Cancer Register Program

1966 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. I. Lourie ◽  
W. Haenszeland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Cancer Register ◽  
Independent Review ◽  
End Results

Quality control of data collected in the United States by the Cancer End Results Program utilizing punchcards prepared by participating registries in accordance with a Uniform Punchcard Code is discussed. Existing arrangements decentralize responsibility for editing and related data processing to the local registries with centralization of tabulating and statistical services in the End Results Section, National Cancer Institute. The most recent deck of punchcards represented over 600,000 cancer patients; approximately 50,000 newly diagnosed cases are added annually.Mechanical editing and inspection of punchcards and field audits are the principal tools for quality control. Mechanical editing of the punchcards includes testing for blank entries and detection of in-admissable or inconsistent codes. Highly improbable codes are subjected to special scrutiny. Field audits include the drawing of a 1-10 percent random sample of punchcards submitted by a registry; the charts are .then reabstracted and recoded by a NCI staff member and differences between the punchcard and the results of independent review are noted.

Utopias of One

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kotin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jim Crow ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Original Research ◽  
The Soviet Union

This book is a new account of utopian writing. It examines how eight writers—Henry David Thoreau, W. E. B. Du Bois, Osip and Nadezhda Mandel'shtam, Anna Akhmatova, Wallace Stevens, Ezra Pound, and J. H. Prynne—construct utopias of one within and against modernity's two large-scale attempts to harmonize individual and collective interests: liberalism and communism. The book begins in the United States between the buildup to the Civil War and the end of Jim Crow; continues in the Soviet Union between Stalinism and the late Soviet period; and concludes in England and the United States between World War I and the end of the Cold War. In this way it captures how writers from disparate geopolitical contexts resist state and normative power to construct perfect worlds—for themselves alone. The book contributes to debates about literature and politics, presenting innovative arguments about aesthetic difficulty, personal autonomy, and complicity and dissent. It models a new approach to transnational and comparative scholarship, combining original research in English and Russian to illuminate more than a century and a half of literary and political history.

RANCANG BANGUN PERANGKAT EKSPERIMENTASI PROSES PIROLISIS BIOMASA GELOMBANG MIKRO

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noor Fachrizal
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Laboratory Apparatus ◽  
Liquid Form ◽  
Large Scale Model ◽  
Bio Oil ◽  
Pyrolysis Of Biomass

Biomass such as agriculture waste and urban waste are enormous potency as energy resources instead of enviromental problem. organic waste can be converted into energy in the form of liquid fuel, solid, and syngas by using of pyrolysis technique. Pyrolysis process can yield higher liquid form when the process can be drifted into fast and flash response. It can be solved by using microwave heating method. This research is started from developing an experimentation laboratory apparatus of microwave-assisted pyrolysis of biomass energy conversion system, and conducting preliminary experiments for gaining the proof that this method can be established for driving the process properly and safely. Modifying commercial oven into laboratory apparatus has been done, it works safely, and initial experiments have been carried out, process yields bio-oil and charcoal shortly, several parameters are achieved. Some further experiments are still needed for more detail parameters. Theresults may be used to design small-scale continuous model of productionsystem, which then can be developed into large-scale model that applicable for comercial use.

Situational Breakdowns

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Nassauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Outcomes ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

This book provides an account of how and why routine interactions break down and how such situational breakdowns lead to protest violence and other types of surprising social outcomes. It takes a close-up look at the dynamic processes of how situations unfold and compares their role to that of motivations, strategies, and other contextual factors. The book discusses factors that can draw us into violent situations and describes how and why we make uncommon individual and collective decisions. Covering different types of surprise outcomes from protest marches and uprisings turning violent to robbers failing to rob a store at gunpoint, it shows how unfolding situations can override our motivations and strategies and how emotions and culture, as well as rational thinking, still play a part in these events. The first chapters study protest violence in Germany and the United States from 1960 until 2010, taking a detailed look at what happens between the start of a protest and the eruption of violence or its peaceful conclusion. They compare the impact of such dynamics to the role of police strategies and culture, protesters’ claims and violent motivations, the black bloc and agents provocateurs. The analysis shows how violence is triggered, what determines its intensity, and which measures can avoid its outbreak. The book explores whether we find similar situational patterns leading to surprising outcomes in other types of small- and large-scale events: uprisings turning violent, such as Ferguson in 2014 and Baltimore in 2015, and failed armed store robberies.

Ban Ki-moon, 2007–2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gowan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Council Decision ◽  
The Face

During Ban Ki-moon’s tenure, the Security Council was shaken by P5 divisions over Kosovo, Georgia, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet it also continued to mandate and sustain large-scale peacekeeping operations in Africa, placing major burdens on the UN Secretariat. The chapter will argue that Ban initially took a cautious approach to controversies with the Council, and earned a reputation for excessive passivity in the face of crisis and deference to the United States. The second half of the chapter suggests that Ban shifted to a more activist pressure as his tenure went on, pressing the Council to act in cases including Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Syria. The chapter will argue that Ban had only a marginal impact on Council decision-making, even though he made a creditable effort to speak truth to power over cases such as the Central African Republic (CAR), challenging Council members to live up to their responsibilities.

scholarly journals 1068. Large-Scale Migration and the Changing Viral Hepatitis Prevalences in North America: A modeling approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S563-S563
Author(s):  
Kenneth A Valles ◽  
Lewis R Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
High Volume ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Treatment Programs

Abstract Background Infection by hepatitis B and C viruses causes inflammation of the liver and can lead to cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The WHO’s ambition to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030 requires strategies specific to the dynamic disease profiles each nation faces. Large-scale human movement from high-prevalence nations to the United States and Canada have altered the disease landscape, likely warranting adjustments to present elimination approaches. However, the nature and magnitude of the new disease burden remains unknown. This study aims to generate a modeled estimate of recent HBV and HCV prevalence changes to the United States and Canada due to migration. Methods Total migrant populations from 2010-2019 were obtained from United Nations Migrant Stock database. Country-of-origin HBV and HCV prevalences were obtained for the select 40 country-of-origin nations from the Polaris Observatory and systematic reviews. A standard pivot table was used to evaluate the disease contribution from and to each nation. Disease progression estimates were generated using the American Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines and outcome data. Results Between 2010 and 2019, 7,676,937 documented migrants arrived in US and Canada from the selected high-volume nations. Primary migrant source regions were East Asia and Latin America. Combined, an estimated 878,995 migrants were HBV positive, and 226,428 HCV positive. The majority of both migrants (6,477,506) and new viral hepatitis cases (HBV=840,315 and HCV=215,359) were found in the United States. The largest source of HBV cases stemmed from the Philippines, and HCV cases from El Salvador. Conclusion Massive human movement has significantly changed HBV and HCV disease burdens in both the US and Canada over the past decade and the long-term outcomes of cirrhosis and HCC are also expected to increase. These increases are likely to disproportionally impact individuals of the migrant and refugee communities and screening and treatment programs must be strategically adjusted in order to reduce morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenses. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

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