scholarly journals High-resolution NWP forecast precipitation comparison over complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba during RELAMPAGO-CACTI.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Eugenia Dillon ◽  
Paola Salio ◽  
Yanina García Skabar ◽  
Stephen W. Nesbitt ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
State University ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Multiple Metrics

Abstract Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-hour accumulated precipitation and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with the final aim of helping water management in the region. The NWP models evaluated include the Global Forecast System (GFS) which parameterizes convection, and convection-permitting simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) configured by three institutions: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign (UIUC), Colorado State University (CSU) and National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN). These models were verified with daily accumulated precipitation data from rain gauges and soundings during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign. Generally all configurations of the higher-resolution WRFs outperformed the lower-resolution GFS based on multiple metrics. Among the convection-permitting WRF models, results varied with respect to rainfall threshold and forecast lead time, but the WRFUIUC mostly performed the best. However, elevation dependent biases existed among the models that may impact the use of the data for different applications. There is a dry (moist) bias in lower (upper) pressure levels which is most pronounced in the GFS. For Córdoba an overestimation of the northern flow forecasted by the NWP configurations at lower levels was encountered. These results show the importance of convection-permitting forecasts in this region, which should be complementary to the coarser-resolution global model forecasts to help various users and decision makers.

scholarly journals Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events Using Enhanced Surface Data Assimilation

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 587
Author(s):  
Magnus Lindskog ◽  
Tomas Landelius
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Enhanced Surface ◽  
Precipitation Events

A limited-area kilometre scale numerical weather prediction system is applied to evaluate the effect of refined surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts. The refinements include a spatially dependent background error representation, use of a flow-dependent data assimilation technique, and use of data from a satellite-based scatterometer instrument. The effect of the enhancements on short-term prediction of intense precipitation events is confirmed through a number of case studies. Verification scores and subjective evaluation of one particular case points at a clear impact of the enhanced surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts and suggest that it also tends to slightly improve them. Although this is not strictly statistically demonstrated, it is consistent with the expectation that a better surface state should improve rainfall forecasts.

Extreme Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center from 2001 to 2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 894-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen M. Sukovich ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Faye E. Barthold ◽  
David W. Reynolds ◽  
David R. Novak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Abstract Extreme quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance is baselined and analyzed by NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) using 11 yr of 32-km gridded QPFs from NCEP’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC). The analysis uses regional extreme precipitation thresholds, quantitatively defined as the 99th and 99.9th percentile precipitation values of all wet-site days from 2001 to 2011 for each River Forecast Center (RFC) region, to evaluate QPF performance at multiple lead times. Five verification metrics are used: probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), critical success index (CSI), frequency bias, and conditional mean absolute error (MAEcond). Results indicate that extreme QPFs have incrementally improved in forecast accuracy over the 11-yr period. Seasonal extreme QPFs show the highest skill during winter and the lowest skill during summer, although an increase in QPF skill is observed during September, most likely due to landfalling tropical systems. Seasonal extreme QPF skill decreases with increased lead time. Extreme QPF skill is higher over the western and northeastern RFCs and is lower over the central and southeastern RFC regions, likely due to the preponderance of convective events in the central and southeastern regions. This study extends the NOAA HMT study of regional extreme QPF performance in the western United States to include the contiguous United States and applies the regional assessment recommended therein. The method and framework applied here are readily applied to any gridded QPF dataset to define and verify extreme precipitation events.

scholarly journals From Random Forests to Flood Forecasts: A Research to Operations Success Story

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
Aaron J. Hill ◽  
Mark Klein ◽  
James A. Nelson ◽  
Michael J. Erickson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
State University ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Processing Techniques

AbstractExcessive rainfall is difficult to forecast, and there is a need for tools to aid Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasters when generating Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs), which are issued for the contiguous United States at lead times of 1–3 days. To address this need, a probabilistic forecast system for excessive rainfall, known as the Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) system, was developed based on ensemble reforecasts, precipitation observations, and machine learning algorithms, specifically random forests. The CSU-MLP forecasts were designed to emulate the EROs, with the goal being a tool that forecasters can use as a “first guess” in the ERO forecast process. Resulting from close collaboration between CSU and WPC and evaluation at the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall experiment, iterative improvements were made to the forecast system and it was transitioned into operational use at WPC. Quantitative evaluation shows that the CSU-MLP forecasts are skillful and reliable, and they are now being used as a part of the WPC forecast process. This project represents an example of a successful research-to-operations transition, and highlights the potential for machine learning and other post-processing techniques to improve operational predictions.

A MODEL FOR DEVELOPING HIGH-QUALITY ONLINE COURSES: INTEGRATING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WITH LEARNING THEORY

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Jean Puzziferro ◽  
Kaye Shelton
Keyword(s):  
Online Education ◽  
Design Theory ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Online Courses ◽  
Process Models ◽  
State University ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Online Instructional Design ◽  
Online Course Development

As the demand for online education continues to increase, institutions are faced with developing process models for efficient, high-quality online course development. This paper describes a systems, team-based, approach that centers on an online instructional design theory (Active Mastery Learning) implemented at Colorado State University-Global Campus.

scholarly journals Preface: Modern Heterocycle Synthesis and Functionalization

Synlett ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (02) ◽  
pp. 140-141
Author(s):  
Louis-Charles Campeau ◽  
Tomislav Rovis
Keyword(s):  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient ◽  
Associate Professor ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
State University ◽  
Heterocycle Synthesis ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
University Of Toronto ◽  
Process Chemistry ◽  
The University ◽  
Small Molecule Therapeutics

obtained his PhD degree in 2008 with the late Professor Keith Fagnou at the University of Ottawa in Canada as an NSERC Doctoral Fellow. He then joined Merck Research Laboratories at Merck-Frosst in Montreal in 2007, making key contributions to the discovery of Doravirine (MK-1439) for which he received a Merck Special Achievement Award. In 2010, he moved from Quebec to New Jersey, where he has served in roles of increasing responsibility with Merck ever since. L.-C. is currently Executive Director and the Head of Process Chemistry and Discovery Process Chemistry organizations, leading a team of smart creative scientists developing innovative chemistry solutions in support of all discovery, pre-clinical and clinical active pharmaceutical ingredient deliveries for the entire Merck portfolio for small-molecule therapeutics. Over his tenure at Merck, L.-C. and his team have made important contributions to >40 clinical candidates and 4 commercial products to date. Tom Rovis was born in Zagreb in former Yugoslavia but was largely raised in southern Ontario, Canada. He earned his PhD degree at the University of Toronto (Canada) in 1998 under the direction of Professor Mark Lautens. From 1998–2000, he was an NSERC Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard University (USA) with Professor David A. Evans. In 2000, he began his independent career at Colorado State University and was promoted in 2005 to Associate Professor and in 2008 to Professor. His group’s accomplishments have been recognized by a number of awards including an Arthur C. Cope Scholar, an NSF CAREER Award, a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and a ­Katritzky Young Investigator in Heterocyclic Chemistry. In 2016, he moved to Columbia University where he is currently the Samuel Latham Mitchill Professor of Chemistry.

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

scholarly journals 260 Genetic prediction for first-service conception rate in Angus heifers using a random regression model

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 197-198
Author(s):  
Miguel A Sánchez-Castro ◽  
Milt Thomas ◽  
Mark Enns ◽  
Scott Speidel
Keyword(s):  
Conception Rate ◽  
Random Regression ◽  
State University ◽  
Base Function ◽  
Genetic Prediction ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Random Regression Model ◽  
Service Conception ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Angus Heifers

Abstract First-service conception rate (FSCR) can be defined as the probability of a heifer conceiving in response to her first artificial insemination (AI). Given the binary nature of its phenotypes, FSCR has been typically evaluated using animal threshold models (ATM). However, susceptibility of these models to the extreme-category problem (ECP) limits their ability to use all available information to calculate Expected Progeny Differences (EPD). Random regression models (RRM) represent an alternative method to evaluate binary traits, and they are not affected by ECP. Nevertheless, RRM were originally developed to analyze longitudinal traits, so their usefulness to evaluate traits with singly observed phenotypes remains unclear. Therefore, objectives herein were to evaluate the feasibility of a RRM genetic prediction for heifer FSCR by comparing its resulting EPD and genetic parameters to those obtained with a traditional ATM. Breeding and ultrasound records of 4,334 Angus heifers (progeny of 354 sires and 1,626 dams) collected between 1992 to 2019 at the Colorado State University Beef Improvement Center were utilized. Observations for FSCR (1, successful; 0, unsuccessful) were defined by fetal age at pregnancy inspections performed approximately 130 d post-AI. Traditional FSCR evaluation was performed using a univariate BLUP threshold animal model, whereas an alternative evaluation was performed by regressing FSCR on age at AI using a linear RRM with Legendre Polynomials as the base function. Heritability estimates were 0.03 ± 0.02 for the ATM and 0.005 ± 0.001 for the average age at AI with the RRM, respectively. Pearson and rank correlations between EPD obtained with each method were 0.63 and 0.60, respectively. The regression coefficient of RRM predictions on those obtained with the ATM was 0.095. In conclusion, these results suggested that although a RRM genetic prediction for FSCR was feasible, a considerable degree of re-ranking occurred between the two methodologies.

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