Examining the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Tornado Outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew T. Bray ◽  
Steven M. Cavallo ◽  
Howard B. Bluestein
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Significant Patterns ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Jet Streak

AbstractMid-latitude jet streaks are known to produce conditions broadly supportive of tornado outbreaks, including forcing for large-scale ascent, increased wind shear, and decreased static stability. Although many processes may initiate a jet streak, we focus here on the development of jet maxima by interactions between the polar jet and tropopause polar vortices (TPVs). Originating from the Arctic, TPVs are long-lived circulations on the tropopause, which can be advected into the mid-latitudes. We hypothesize that when these vortices interact with the jet, they may contribute supplemental forcing for ascent and shear to tornado outbreaks, assuming other environmental conditions supportive of tornado development exist. Using a case set of significant tornado outbreak days from three states—Oklahoma, Illinois, and Alabama—we show that a vortex-jet streak structure is present (within 1250 km) in around two-thirds of tornado outbreaks. These vortices are commonly Arctic in origin (i.e., are TPVs) and are advected through a consistent path of entry into the mid-latitudes in the week before the outbreak, moving across the Northern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska before turning equatorward along the North American coast. These vortices are shown to be more intense and longer-lived than average. We further demonstrate that statistically significant patterns of wind shear, quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent, and low static stability are present over the outbreak regions on the synoptic scale. In addition, we find that TPVs associated with tornadic events occur most often in the spring and are associated with greater low-level moisture when compared to non-tornadic TPV cases.

Multiscale aspects of the 26–27 April 2011 tornado outbreak. Part II: Environmental modifications and upscale feedbacks arising from latent processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manda B. Chasteen ◽  
Steven E. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
Jet Structure ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Jet Streak

AbstractOne of the most prolific tornado outbreaks ever documented occurred on 26–27 April 2011 and comprised three successive episodes of tornadic convection that culminated with the development of numerous long-track, violent tornadoes over the southeastern U.S. during the afternoon of 27 April. This notorious afternoon supercell outbreak was preceded by two quasi-linear convective systems (hereafter QLCS1 and QLCS2), the first of which was an anomalously severe nocturnal system that rapidly grew upscale during the previous evening. In this Part II, we use a series of RUC 1-h forecasts and output from convection-permitting WRF-ARW simulations configured both with and without latent heat release to investigate how environmental modifications and upscale feedbacks produced by the two QLCSs contributed to the evolution and exceptional severity of this multi-episode outbreak.QLCS1 was primarily responsible for amplifying the large-scale flow pattern, inducing two upper-level jet streaks, and promoting secondary surface cyclogenesis downstream from the primary baroclinic system. Upper-level divergence markedly increased after QLCS1 developed, which yielded strong isallobaric forcing that rapidly strengthened the low-level jet (LLJ) and vertical wind shear over the warm sector and contributed to the system’s upscale growth and notable severity. Moreover, QLCS2 modified the mesoscale environment prior to the supercell outbreak by promoting the downstream formation of a pronounced upper-level jet streak, altering the midlevel jet structure, and furthering the development of a highly ageostrophic LLJ over the Southeast. Collectively, the flow modifications produced by both QLCSs contributed to the notably favorable shear profiles present during the afternoon supercell outbreak.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Circulation Effects on Wind Speed Variability at Turbine Height

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Klink
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North

Abstract Mean monthly wind speed at 70 m above ground level is investigated for 11 sites in Minnesota for the period 1995–2003. Wind speeds at these sites show significant spatial and temporal coherence, with prolonged periods of above- and below-normal values that can persist for as long as 12 months. Monthly variation in wind speed primarily is determined by the north–south pressure gradient, which captures between 22% and 47% of the variability (depending on the site). Regression on wind speed residuals (pressure gradient effects removed) shows that an additional 6%–15% of the variation can be related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Wind speeds showed little correspondence with variation in the Pacific–North American (PNA) circulation index. The effect of the strong El Niño of 1997/98 on the wind speed time series was investigated by recomputing the regression equations with this period excluded. The north–south pressure gradient remains the primary determinant of mean monthly 70-m wind speeds, but with 1997/98 removed the influence of the AO increases at nearly all stations while the importance of the Niño-3.4 SSTs generally decreases. Relationships with the PNA remain small. These results suggest that long-term patterns of low-frequency wind speed (and thus wind power) variability can be estimated using large-scale circulation features as represented by large-scale climatic datasets and by climate-change models.

scholarly journals Global Hawk dropsonde observations of the Arctic atmosphere obtained during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) field campaign

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 3917-3926 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Intrieri ◽  
G. de Boer ◽  
M. D. Shupe ◽  
J. R. Spackman ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Aircraft System ◽  
Global Hawk

Abstract. In February and March of 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) field campaign. The WISPAR science missions were designed to (1) mprove our understanding of Pacific weather systems and the polar atmosphere; (2) evaluate operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these atmospheric events; and (3) demonstrate operational and research applications of a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind information between the stratosphere and surface. The 35 m wingspan Global Hawk, which can soar for ~ 31 h at altitudes up to ~ 20 km, was remotely operated from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base (AFB) in California. During the 25 h polar flight on 9–10 March 2011, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude, marking the first UAS Arctic dropsonde mission of its kind. The polar flight transected an unusually cold polar vortex, notable for an associated record-level Arctic ozone loss, and documented polar boundary layer variations over a sizable ocean–ice lead feature. Comparison of dropsonde observations with atmospheric reanalyses reveal that, for this day, large-scale structures such as the polar vortex and air masses are captured by the reanalyses, while smaller-scale features, including low-level jets and inversion depths, are mischaracterized. The successful Arctic dropsonde deployment demonstrates the capability of the Global Hawk to conduct operations in harsh, remote regions. The limited comparison with other measurements and reanalyses highlights the potential value of Arctic atmospheric dropsonde observations where routine in situ measurements are practically nonexistent.

scholarly journals Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Pozzoli ◽  
Srdan Dobricic ◽  
Simone Russo ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

scholarly journals A Look at the Relationship between the Large-Scale Tropospheric Static Stability and the Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-975
Author(s):  
Alexandria Downs ◽  
Chanh Kieu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractVarious modeling and observational studies have suggested that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity tends to increase in the future due to projected warmer sea surface temperature (SST). This study examines the effects of the tropospheric stratification that could potentially offset the direct increase of TC intensity associated with the warmer SST. Using reanalysis datasets and TC records in the northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that there exists a consistently negative correlation between the annually averaged TC intensity and the basinwide average of the tropospheric static stability. This negative correlation is more robust in the northwestern Pacific basin when using the TC lifetime maximum intensity but is somewhat less significant in the North Atlantic basin. Further separation of the troposphere into a lower (1000–500 hPa) and an upper layer (500–200 hPa) reveals that it is the upper-tropospheric static stability that plays a more dominant role in governing the TC intensity variability. The negating effects of a stable troposphere on TC intensity as found in this study suggest a partial offset of the projected increase in the TC potential intensity due to the future warmer SST. Thus, the tropospheric static stability is one of the key large-scale factors that need to be properly taken into account in studies of long-term TC intensity change.

scholarly journals Heat transport pathways into the Arctic and their connections to surface air temperatures

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 3927-3937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Mewes ◽  
Christoph Jacobi
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Arctic amplification causes the meridional temperature gradient between middle and high latitudes to decrease. Through this decrease the large-scale circulation in the midlatitudes may change and therefore the meridional transport of heat and moisture increases. This in turn may increase Arctic warming even further. To investigate patterns of Arctic temperature, horizontal transports and their changes in time, we analysed ERA-Interim daily winter data of vertically integrated horizontal moist static energy transport using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Three general transport pathways have been identified: the North Atlantic pathway with transport mainly over the northern Atlantic, the North Pacific pathway with transport from the Pacific region, and the Siberian pathway with transport towards the Arctic over the eastern Siberian region. Transports that originate from the North Pacific are connected to negative temperature anomalies over the central Arctic. These North Pacific pathways have been becoming less frequent during the last decades. Patterns with origin of transport in Siberia are found to have no trend and show cold temperature anomalies north of Svalbard. It was found that transport patterns that favour transport through the North Atlantic into the central Arctic are connected to positive temperature anomalies over large regions of the Arctic. These temperature anomalies resemble the warm Arctic–cold continents pattern. Further, it could be shown that transport through the North Atlantic has been becoming more frequent during the last decades.

Variability and changes of the stratospheric large scale circulation and possible consequences for ozone streamer events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Küchelbacher Lisa ◽  
Laux Dominik ◽  
Michael Bittner
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Spectral Model ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
The North ◽  
Mode Decomposition

<p>Planetary waves (PW) dominate the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere and therewith, the large-scale mass transport of ozone. As PW break, ozone poor air masses are irreversibly mixed into mid-latitudes. Due to the disproportionate warming of the North Pole, an increase in PW activity (PWA) is expected. This should also have consequences for ozone streamer events.</p><p>We derived the PWA of ERA 5 and Interim Reanalysis temperature from ground level up the mesosphere. We identify Ozone-streamer events with a statistical based approach on the basis of total column concentration measured by GOME-2. We deconvoluted the time series of the PWA and the ozone-streamer events with the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD). Moreover, we developed a simple spectral model of the meridional wind shear on the basis of PW. This model serves as a measure of the atmospheric instability in the stratosphere.</p><p>As we deconvolute the PWA with the EMD we find signatures of QBO, ENSO and solar cycles and quantify their contributions. As PW dominate the circulation in the stratosphere, it appears to be a coherent consequence that ozone streamers are modulated on the same time scales as the PWA.With the spectral model of the meridional wind shear we find regions in the atmosphere, where PW are most likely to break. As a result there is an increased meridional transport of air masses, in particular of ozone. This is why ozone streamers occur most frequently at the transition zones from ocean to continent; strongest from North Atlantic to Europe. Moreover, we find significant long-term trends of the PWA in the stratosphere. Due to the increase of the PWA in the stratosphere, ozone streamer events are likely to occur more often in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Influence of Atlantic inflow on the freshwater content in the upper layer of the Arctic basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-388
Author(s):  
G. V. Alekseev ◽  
A. V. Pnyushkov ◽  
A. V. Smirnov ◽  
A. E. Vyazilova ◽  
N. I. Glok
Keyword(s):  
Fresh Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Water Layer ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North

Inter-decadal changes in the water layer of Atlantic origin and freshwater content (FWC) in the upper 100 m layer were traced jointly to assess the influence of inflows from the Atlantic on FWC changes based on oceanographic observations in the Arctic Basin for the 1960s – 2010s. For this assessment, we used oceanographic data collected at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) and the International Arctic Research Center (IARC). The AARI data for the decades of 1960s – 1990s were obtained mainly at the North Pole drifting ice camps, in high-latitude aerial surveys in the 1970s, as well as in ship-based expeditions in the 1990s. The IARC database contains oceanographic measurements acquired using modern CTD (Conductivity – Temperature – Depth) systems starting from the 2000s. For the reconstruction of decadal fields of the depths of the upper and lower 0 °С isotherms and FWC in the 0–100 m layer in the periods with a relatively small number of observations (1970s – 1990s), we used a climatic regression method based on the conservativeness of the large-scale structure of water masses in the Arctic Basin. Decadal fields with higher data coverage were built using the DIVAnd algorithm. Both methods showed almost identical results when compared.  The results demonstrated that the upper boundary of the Atlantic water (AW) layer, identified with the depth of zero isotherm, raised everywhere by several tens of meters in 1990s – 2010s, when compared to its position before the start of warming in the 1970s. The lower boundary of the AW layer, also determined by the depth of zero isotherm, became deeper. Such displacements of the layer boundaries indicate an increase in the volume of water in the Arctic Basin coming not only through the Fram Strait, but also through the Barents Sea. As a result, the balance of water masses was disturbed and its restoration had to occur due to the reduction of the volume of the upper most dynamic freshened layer. Accordingly, the content of fresh water in this layer should decrease. Our results confirmed that FWC in the 0–100 m layer has decreased to 2 m in the Eurasian part of the Arctic Basin to the west of 180° E in the 1990s. In contrast, the FWC to the east of 180° E and closer to the shores of Alaska and the Canadian archipelago has increased. These opposite tendencies have been intensified in the 2000s and the 2010s. A spatial correlation between distributions of the FWC and the positions of the upper AW boundary over different decades confirms a close relationship between both distributions. The influence of fresh water inflow is manifested as an increase in water storage in the Canadian Basin and the Beaufort Gyre in the 1990s – 2010s. The response of water temperature changes from the tropical Atlantic to the Arctic Basin was traced, suggesting not only the influence of SST at low latitudes on changes in FWC, but indicating the distant tropical impact on Arctic processes. 

scholarly journals Changes in precipitation over the East Herzegovina region

2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatjana Popov ◽  
Slobodan Gnjato ◽  
Goran Trbic
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Autumn Season ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Changes in annual and seasonal precipitation over the East Herzegovina region in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1961-2016 periods were analyzed based on data sets of daily precipitation from 14 meteorological stations and rainfall gauges. The results show a downward trend in annual precipitation over the entire East Herzegovina region. Seasonal trend analysis showed that negative trends prevailed throughout the year, except in autumn season. Most prominent negative trends were registered in summer season throughout the region. In winter and spring season, precipitation displayed trends of both sign (although a downward trend prevailed). In the autumn season, precipitation has increased almost throughout the entire East Herzegovina region. However, a majority of estimated trends in annual and seasonal precipitation were weak and statistically insignificant. Prevailing negative values of the Rainfall Anomaly Index since the 1990s also suggest that precipitation reduction was present over the East Herzegovina region. Analysis of the Cumulative Precipitation Anomalies showed that a dry period started in 1981 and still continues. Precipitation variability was strongly dictated by the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the Northern Hemisphere, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern and the Arctic Oscillation, particularly during winter season.

scholarly journals Impurities in Snow: Effects on Albedo and Snowmelt (Review)

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 177-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Warren
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Effect

Very small (ppm) amounts of soil dust in snow can significantly reduce snow albedo and thereby affect the snow-surface energy budget. Ice cores from Greenland show enhanced dust concentrations in ice from the last glacial maximum, in amounts capable of causing measurable effects on snow albedo. This enhanced dust is probably due in part to the expanded desert areas at that time.Volcanic ash layers visible in the Byrd station core reduced the snow albedo in West Antarctica when they were on the surface. The ash is unlikely to have had a long-term effect on albedo because of the episodic nature of volcanic eruptions.Very large amounts of dust on snow can inhibit snow-melt by insulating the snow. A debris cover probably slowed the melting of parts of the North American ice sheet during its most recent decay phase.Snow in the Arctic Ocean is presently suffering large-scale contamination by carbon soot from anthropogenic sources. Preliminary estimates indicate that soot concentrations in Arctic snow are sufficient to reduce snow albedo measurably.

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