scholarly journals Tornado Warnings at Night: Who Gets the Message?

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Reyes Mason ◽  
Kelsey N. Ellis ◽  
Betsy Winchester ◽  
Susan Schexnayder
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Factors ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Local Media ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
West Tennessee ◽  
Very High ◽  
High Chance

Abstract Nocturnal tornadoes are a public health threat, over twice as likely to have fatalities as tornadoes during the day. While tornado warning receipt is an important factor in models of individual behavioral response, receipt of warnings at night has not been studied in the literature to date. This study uses survey data from a random sample of Tennessee residents (N = 1804) who were randomly assigned to day or night versions of a near-identical survey instrument. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses compare chance of warning receipt, warning sources, and predictors of warning receipt for day versus night scenarios of a tornadic event. Over 80% of participants asked about a daytime tornado said there was a high/very high chance of receiving the warning, compared to fewer than 50% of participants asked about a nighttime event. Whereas demographic and cognitive factors helped predict tornado warning receipt during the day, cognitive and geographic factors were salient for the night. Perceived county risk and prior experience with a tornado were positively associated with chance of nighttime receipt, while belief that luck is an important factor in surviving a tornado and living in east (compared to west) Tennessee were negatively associated. Future research should consider partnering with the National Weather Service, emergency managers, and local media to increase the likelihood that people will receive tornado warnings at night and to better understand the role that cognitive factors and particular beliefs play in individual efforts to ensure that warnings are received.

scholarly journals Interrelationship of linear dimensions as growth corollary of pama croaker Otolithoides pama in the Bay of Bengal

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-292
Author(s):  
ZOARDER FARUQUE AHMED ◽  
MST. KANIZ FATEMA ◽  
UMME HABIBA AZ ZOHORA ◽  
MANSURA AKTER JOBA ◽  
FERDOUS AHAMED
Keyword(s):  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Allometric Growth ◽  
Linear Dimensions ◽  
Length Relationship ◽  
Gender Categories ◽  
Very High

Growth pattern of pama croaker Otolithoides pama population in the Bay of Bengal was determinedas the corollary of relationships between standard length (SL) and total length (TL), the two most prevalentlyused linear dimensions of fin fish species. Monthly pama croaker samples were collected from the industrialfisheries in the Bay of Bengal. The length-length relationship was constructed algebraically in the form ofy=a+bx. Relationships between SL and TL for male, female and unsexed populations were separatelyestablished. Sex ratio between male and female did not deviate from the parity (?2 test; p>0.05). The SL andTL ranges of male were 7.2-22 cm and 9.5-28 cm respectively, and the SL and TL ranges of female were6.8-20 cm and 8.4-25.7 cm respectively. Intercept and slope varied monthly in all length-length relationshipsregardless of gender categories. The generalized SL-TL relationships of male, female and unsexedpopulations were TL=1.214SL+0.761(R=0.989), TL=1.212SL-0.770(R=0.990) and TL=1.203SL+0.904(R=0.987) respectively. The correlation coefficients of both monthly and generalized regression analyses ofall sex types were very high (R?0.852) which explained that the relationships between the two lengthdimensions were strongly correlated. The growth corollary appeared both as isometric and allometric formonthly populations. Allometric growth was apparent in July, August and September in all gender types,while isometric growth was deduced in other months. This study would be useful for future research in orderto make comparisons with the relevant aspects of O. pama population between years and locations in the Bayof Bengal.

Anticipating Deviant Tornado Motion Using a Simple Hodograph Technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 219-235
Author(s):  
Cameron J. Nixon ◽  
John T. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Median Error ◽  
Tornado Warning

AbstractThe paths of tornadoes have long been a subject of fascination since the meticulously drawn damage tracks by Dr. Tetsuya Theodore “Ted” Fujita. Though uncommon, some tornadoes have been noted to take sudden left turns from their previous path. This has the potential to present an extreme challenge to warning lead time, and the spread of timely, accurate information to broadcasters and emergency managers. While a few hypotheses exist as to why tornadoes deviate, none have been tested for their potential use in operational forecasting and nowcasting. As a result, such deviations go largely unanticipated by forecasters. A sample of 102 leftward deviant tornadic low-level mesocyclones was tracked via WSR-88D and assessed for their potential predictability. A simple hodograph technique is presented that shows promising skill in predicting the motion of deviant tornadoes, which, upon “occlusion,” detach from the parent storm’s updraft centroid and advect leftward or rearward by the low-level wind. This metric, a vector average of the parent storm motion and the mean wind in the lowest half-kilometer, proves effective at anticipating deviant tornado motion with a median error of less than 6 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1). With over 25% of analyzed low-level mesocyclones deviating completely out of the tornado warning polygon issued by their respective National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office, the adoption of this new technique could improve warning performance. Furthermore, with over 35% of tornadoes becoming “deviant” almost immediately upon formation, the ability to anticipate such events may inspire a new paradigm for tornado warnings that, when covering unpredictable behavior, are proactive instead of reactive.

Association between psychomotor disturbance and treatment outcome in psychotic depression: a STOP-PD II report

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Alastair J. Flint ◽  
Kathleen S. Bingham ◽  
Nicholas H. Neufeld ◽  
George S. Alexopoulos ◽  
Benoit H. Mulsant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Outcome ◽  
Acute Phase ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Psychotic Depression ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Open Label ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Stabilization Phase ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Little is known about the relationship between psychomotor disturbance (PMD) and treatment outcome of psychotic depression. This study examined the association between PMD and subsequent remission and relapse of treated psychotic depression. Methods Two hundred and sixty-nine men and women aged 18–85 years with an episode of psychotic depression were treated with open-label sertraline plus olanzapine for up to 12 weeks. Participants who remained in remission or near-remission following an 8-week stabilization phase were eligible to participate in a 36-week randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared the efficacy and tolerability of sertraline plus olanzapine (n = 64) with sertraline plus placebo (n = 62). PMD was measured with the psychiatrist-rated sign-based CORE at acute phase baseline and at RCT baseline. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the association between CORE total score at acute phase baseline and remission/near-remission and CORE total score at RCT baseline and relapse. Results Higher CORE total score at acute phase baseline was associated with lower frequency of remission/near-remission. Higher CORE total score at RCT baseline was associated with higher frequency of relapse, in the RCT sample as a whole, as well as in each of the two randomized groups. Conclusions PMD is associated with poorer outcome of psychotic depression treated with sertraline plus olanzapine. Future research needs to examine the neurobiology of PMD in psychotic depression in relation to treatment outcome.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public’s Perceptions of Weather Risks

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hoekstra ◽  
K. Klockow ◽  
R. Riley ◽  
J. Brotzge ◽  
H. Brooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Present System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Risks

Abstract Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (>1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.

The Differential Risk Factors of Physically Forced and Alcohol- or Other Drug-Enabled Sexual Assault Among University Women

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Krebs ◽  
Christine H. Lindquist ◽  
Tara D. Warner ◽  
Bonnie S. Fisher ◽  
Sandra L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Campus Sexual Assault ◽  
University Women ◽  
Undergraduate Women ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Lifestyle Activities ◽  
Very High

The Campus Sexual Assault Study examined whether undergraduate women’s victimization experiences prior to college and lifestyle activities during college were differentially associated with the type of sexual assault they experienced: physically forced sexual assault and incapacitated sexual assault. Self-reported data collected using a Web-based survey administered to more than 5,000 undergraduate women at two large public universities indicated that victimization experiences before college were differentially associated with the risk of experiencing these two types of sexual assault during college. Women who experienced forced sexual assault before college were at very high risk of experiencing forced sexual assault during college (odds ratio [OR] = 6.6). Women who experienced incapacitated sexual assault before college were also at very high risk of experiencing incapacitated sexual assault during college (OR = 3.7). Moreover, women’s substance use behaviors during college, including getting drunk and using marijuana, were strongly associated with experiencing incapacitated sexual assault but were not associated with experiencing forced sexual assault. Implications for education and prevention programs, as well as future research directions, are discussed.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

Tornado Warning Guidance and Graphics: Implications of the Inclusion of Protective Action Information on Perceptions and Efficacy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeannette Sutton ◽  
Laura Fischer ◽  
Michele M. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Protective Action ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Response Efficacy ◽  
Protective Actions ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Ability To Act ◽  
Populations At Risk ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Action Guidance

AbstractEffective warning messages should tell people what they should do, how they should do it, and how to maximize their health and safety. Guidance essentially delivers two types of information: 1) information that instructs people about the actions to take in response to a threat, and 2) information about how and why these recommended protective actions will reduce harm. However, recent research reported that while automated tornado warnings, sent by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center via the account @NWStornado on Twitter, included useful information about the location of the threat, the potential impacts, and populations at risk, it failed to provide content that would contribute to successful protective actions. In this experimental study we investigate how the inclusion and presentation of protective action guidance affects participant perceptions of a tornado warning message and their perceived ability to act upon the information (i.e., self- and response-efficacy). We find that the inclusion of protective action guidance results an increase in the participants’ understanding of the message, their ability to decide what to do, and their perceived self- and response-efficacy. Knowing how to take action to protect oneself, and believing the actions will make oneself safe, are key motivators to taking action when faced with a significant threat. Future warning research should draw from other persuasive messaging and health behavior theories, and should include self- and response- efficacy as important causal factors. It should also look across additional hazards to determine if these outcomes differ by the length of forewarning and hazard type.

Person Memory Mechanism Underlying Approach and Avoidance Judgments of Social Targets

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 747-772
Author(s):  
Allison M. Sklenar ◽  
Matthew P. McCurdy ◽  
Andrea N. Frankenstein ◽  
Matt Motyl ◽  
Eric D. Leshikar
Keyword(s):  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Cognitive Factors ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Judgments ◽  
Approach And Avoidance ◽  
Memory Mechanism ◽  
Person Memory ◽  
Approach Avoidance

People display approach and avoidance tendencies toward social targets. Although much research has studied the factors that affect decisions to approach or avoid targets, less work has investigated whether cognitive factors, such as episodic memory (e.g., details remembered about others from previous encounters) contribute to such judgments. Across two experiments, participants formed positive or negative impressions of targets based on their picture, a trait-implying behavior (Experiments 1 & 2), and their political ideology (conservative or liberal; Experiment 2). Memory and approach/avoidance decisions for targets were then measured. Results showed remembering negative impressions about targets increased avoidance responses, whereas remembering positive impressions increased approach responses. Strikingly, falsely remembering negative impressions for novel social targets (not seen before) also induced avoidance. Results suggest remembering negative information about targets, whether correctly or falsely, strongly influences future social judgments. Overall, these data support an episodic memory mechanism underlying subsequent approach/avoidance judgments, which is a rich area for future research.

Physiological Indicators of Trail Running Performance: A Systematic Review

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Simon J. de Waal ◽  
Josu Gomez-Ezeiza ◽  
Rachel E. Venter ◽  
Robert P. Lamberts
Keyword(s):  
Aerobic Capacity ◽  
Running Economy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Training Status ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Maximal Aerobic Capacity ◽  
Running Performance ◽  
Testing Procedures ◽  
Performance Variation ◽  
Trail Running

Purpose: To provide a systematic overview of physiological parameters used to determine the training status of a trail runner and how well these parameters correlate with real-world trail running performance. Method: An electronic literature search of the PubMed and Scopus digital databases was performed. Combinations of the terms “trail run” or “trail runner” or “trail running” and “performance” were used as search terms. Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Results: Trail running performance most commonly correlated (mean [SD]) with maximal aerobic capacity (71%; r = −.50 [.32]), lactate threshold (57%; r = −.48 [.28]), velocity at maximal aerobic capacity (43%; r = −.68 [.08]), running economy (43%; r = −.31 [.22]), body fat percentage (43%; r = .55 [.21]), and age (43%; r = .52 [.14]). Regression analyses in 2 studies were based on a single variable predicting 48% to 60% of performance variation, whereas 5 studies included multiple variable regression analyses predicting 48% to 99% of performance variation. Conclusions: Trail running performance is multifaceted. The classic endurance model shows a weaker association with performance in trail running than in road running. Certain variables associated with trail running research (such as testing procedures, race profiles, and study participants) hinder the execution of comparative studies. Future research should employ trail-specific testing protocols and clear, objective descriptions of both the race profile and participants’ training status.

Biology, Management, and Protection of North American Sturgeon

2002 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Risk ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Shortnose Sturgeon ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Connecticut River ◽  
Acipenser Brevirostrum ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Very High ◽  
Existing Data

<em>Abstract.</em>—The shortnose sturgeon, <em>Acipenser brevirostrum</em>, is a long-lived species that grows slowly, matures at an advanced age, and spawns only intermittently. In the Connecticut River, there are two distinct subpopulations of shortnose sturgeon, which have been separated by the Holyoke Dam for 157 years. My research addressed the viability and persistence for these two separate populations and the effects of dispersal, variation in survival and reproduction, and catastrophes. My risk-based approach used a stage-based metapopulation model that I constructed in RAMAS<sup>®</sup> GIS incorporating the available data. Based on the existing data, this population model for the shortnose sturgeon metapopulation in the Connecticut River made several predictions. The observed stability of the two subpopulations was possible either: with reproduction in both upper and lower subpopulations and small to moderate rates of dispersal between them; or with no reproduction in the lower subpopulation, very high reproduction in the upper subpopulation and high rate of net downstream dispersal. My results provided estimates of extinction risk for the shortnose sturgeon metapopulation under various management options and highlighted three key areas for future research, demonstrating the value of a risk-based approach. This approach is particularly useful for management of long-lived aquatic species.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document