scholarly journals Severe Weather Forecasts and Public Perceptions: An Analysis of the 2011 Super Outbreak in Tuscaloosa, Alabama

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 473-485
Author(s):  
Shadya Sanders ◽  
Terri Adams ◽  
Everette Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Face ◽  
Citizen Response

AbstractThis paper uses the “Super Outbreak” of 2011 as a case study to examine the potential gaps between the dissemination of severe weather warnings and the public’s behavioral response to this information. This study focuses on a single tornado track that passed through Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The tornado caused massive damage and destruction and led to a total of 62 fatalities. The threat of severe storms was known days in advance, and forecasts were disseminated to the public. Questions were raised about the forecasts, warning lead times, and the perception of the warnings among residents. This paper examines the potential gaps that exist between the dissemination of tornadic warning information and citizen response. The analysis of data collected through a mixed-method approach suggests that, regardless of weather forecast accuracy, a significant chasm exists between the dissemination of warnings and the personalizing of risks, which results in limited use of protective measures in the face of severe weather threats.

scholarly journals Half-Remembering and Half-Forgetting? On Turning the Past of Old Norse Studies into a Future of Old Norse Studies

Humanities ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Jan Alexander van Nahl
Keyword(s):  
Old Norse ◽  
Social Relevance ◽  
The Public ◽  
Special Obligation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Societal Challenges ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
The Face

Many Humanities scholars seem to have become increasingly pessimistic due to a lack of success in their efforts to be recognized as a serious player next to their science, technology, engineering, and maths (STEM) colleagues. This appears to be the result of a profound uncertainty in the self-perception of individual disciplines within the Humanities regarding their role both in academia and society. This ambiguity, not least, has its roots in their own history, which often appears as an interwoven texture of conflicting opinions. Taking a stance on the current and future role of the Humanities in general, and individual disciplines in particular thus asks for increased engagement with their own past, i.e., histories of scholarship, which are contingent on societal and political contexts. This article’s focus is on a case study from the field of Old Norse Studies. In the face of the rise of populism and nationalism in our days, Old Norse Studies, with their focus on a ‘Germanic’ past, have a special obligation to address societal challenges. The article argues for the public engagement with the histories of individual disciplines to strengthen scholarly credibility in the face of public opinion and to overcome trenches which hamper attempts at uniting Humanities experts and regaining distinct social relevance.

The Governance of Global Banking in the Face of Complexity

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-204
Author(s):  
Matteo Ortino
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Specific Pattern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Banking ◽  
The Face ◽  
Institutional Dimension ◽  
Regulatory Powers ◽  
The Military

ABSTRACT The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the composite wider legal and institutional environment to which it is part provide a useful case study to illustrate how complexity is addressed in the public policy realm. As its central proposition, this article argues that it is possible to identify a specific pattern and logic underlying the governance of global banking today. The pattern concerns the institutional dimension of global banking regulation, particularly with respect to the distribution of regulatory powers among the various actors involved, and the legal relationships between these actors. The overall pattern seems to follow a certain logic, which will be explored and explained borrowing the military distinction between strategy, operations, and tactics.

scholarly journals Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1605-1631
Author(s):  
Eric D. Loken ◽  
Adam J. Clark ◽  
Christopher D. Karstens
Keyword(s):  
Random Forests ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
Better Than

AbstractExtracting explicit severe weather forecast guidance from convection-allowing ensembles (CAEs) is challenging since CAEs cannot directly simulate individual severe weather hazards. Currently, CAE-based severe weather probabilities must be inferred from one or more storm-related variables, which may require extensive calibration and/or contain limited information. Machine learning (ML) offers a way to obtain severe weather forecast probabilities from CAEs by relating CAE forecast variables to observed severe weather reports. This paper develops and verifies a random forest (RF)-based ML method for creating day 1 (1200–1200 UTC) severe weather hazard probabilities and categorical outlooks based on 0000 UTC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) forecast data and observed Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm reports. RF forecast probabilities are compared against severe weather forecasts from calibrated SSEO 2–5-km updraft helicity (UH) forecasts and SPC convective outlooks issued at 0600 UTC. Continuous RF probabilities routinely have the highest Brier skill scores (BSSs), regardless of whether the forecasts are evaluated over the full domain or regional/seasonal subsets. Even when RF probabilities are truncated at the probability levels issued by the SPC, the RF forecasts often have BSSs better than or comparable to corresponding UH and SPC forecasts. Relative to the UH and SPC forecasts, the RF approach performs best for severe wind and hail prediction during the spring and summer (i.e., March–August). Overall, it is concluded that the RF method presented here provides skillful, reliable CAE-derived severe weather probabilities that may be useful to severe weather forecasters and decision-makers.

scholarly journals The politics of platform power in surveillance capitalism: A comparative case study of ride-hailing platforms in China and the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 205943642110467
Author(s):  
Ngai Keung Chan ◽  
Chi Kwok
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Comparative Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Face ◽  
Behavioral Predictions

This article uses a comparative case study of two ride-hailing platforms—DiDi Chuxing in China and Uber in the United States—to explore the comparative politics of platform power in surveillance capitalism. Surveillance capitalism is an emerging economic system that translates human experiences into surveillance assets for behavioral predictions and modifications. Through this comparative study, we demonstrate how DiDi and Uber articulate their operational legitimacy for advancing their corporate interests and visions of datafication in the face of legal uncertainty. Although DiDi and Uber are both “sectoral platforms” in urban mobility with similar visions of datafication and infrastructuralization, we highlight that they deploy different discursive legitimation strategies. Our study shows that Uber adopts a “confrontational” strategy, while DiDi employs a “collaborative” strategy when they need to legitimize their data and business practices to the public and regulatory authorities. This study offers a comparative lens to examine the social and political dynamics of platform firms based in China and the United States and, therefore, contributes to understanding the various aspirational logic of platform thinking in different political contexts.

scholarly journals Eye Tracking: Evaluating the Impact of Gesturing during Televised Weather Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Drost ◽  
Jay Trobec ◽  
Christy Steffke ◽  
Julie Libarkin
Keyword(s):  
Eye Tracking ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Physical Gestures ◽  
Areas Of Interest ◽  
The Second Variation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Televised media is one of the most frequently accessed sources of weather information. The local weathercaster is the link between weather information and the public, and as such weathercaster characteristics, from vocal cadence to physical appearance, can impact viewer understanding. This study considers the role of weathercaster gesturing on viewer attention during weather forecasts. Two variations of a typical weather forecast were viewed by a total of 36 students during an eye tracking session. The first forecast variation contained physical gestures toward forecast text by the newscaster (Gesture condition) while the second variation contained minimal gesturing (No Gesture condition). Following each eye tracking session, students completed a retention survey related to the forecast. These data were used to identify areas of interest to which students attended during viewing and to ascertain how well the forecast was retained across the gesturing treatments. Study results suggest that the weathercaster’s gesturing during forecasts may have induced confusion among participants, but did not affect retention of the weather information investigated in the study. Gesturing diverted attention from other areas of interest within the forecast by encouraging participants to focus on the weathercaster’s hands. This study indicates that minor modifications to weathercaster behavior can produce significant changes in viewer behavior.

scholarly journals Sources of Care Stress of Nursing Staff for Patients with Infectious Diseases during the Prevalence of COVID-19: A Case Study of Some Regional Teaching Hospitals in Southern Taiwan

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
Yichao Huang ◽  
Lichen Yu
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Patient Care ◽  
Nursing Staff ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Teaching Hospitals ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Face ◽  
Southern Taiwan

(1) Background: The COVID-19 epidemic had caused more than 100 million confirmed cases worldwide by the end of January 2021. The focus of this study was to explore which stress was felt the most by nursing staff in isolation wards in the face of dangerous infectious diseases. (2) Methods: Nursing staff in negative pressure isolation wards were taken as the research objects. The sources of stress were divided into 14 items in three categories, namely, patient care, infection protection, and support system, and the questionnaire results were ranked by a Gaussian curve. (3) Results: Even during the COVID-19 epidemic, nurses in isolation wards still consider that the clinical symptoms of patients in isolation wards cannot be closely tracked as the primary consideration. (4) Conclusions: During the epidemic period, the ability and confidence of nursing staff were strengthened through education and training, and their chances of infection were reduced through comprehensive vaccination and the improvement of protective equipment. In the face of the unstable mood of patients and their families due to isolation, more protective measures should be prepared for nursing staff. In order to relieve the stress, supervisors can adjust the nursing manpower timely according to the difficulty and risk of patient care to reduce the care stress.

scholarly journals Upaya Pemerintah dalam Membentuk Citra Purwakarta Melalui Kearifan Lokal

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 97-115
Author(s):  
YuniaGu Gustini ◽  
Irfan Sanusi ◽  
Khoiruddin Muchtar
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Community Support ◽  
Image Formation ◽  
City Branding ◽  
Case Study Method ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Facilities ◽  
The Face ◽  
Cooperative Relationship

Citra yang baik atau bisa dikatakan citra positive sebuah daerah perlu dibangun oleh Pemerintahan setempat. Wajah Kabupaten Purwakarta pada saat ini lebih banyak dikenal oleh masyarakat dibandingkan dengan 10 tahun silam apalagi didalam sektor kearifan lokal. Hal ini merupakan adanya gerak cepat dari pemerintah setempat untuk memoles wajah Kabupaten Purwakarta.Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui upaya pemerintah dalam membentuk citra Purwakarta dilihat dari konsep proses pembentukan citra (Ardianto: 2002) yang mana didalamnya terdiri dari persepsi, keyakinan, motivasi dan sikap. Penelitian ini menggunakan paradigma konstruktivisme, pendekatan kualitatif dan metode studi kasus. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa untuk membentuk persepsi masyarkat diadakannya perbaikan infastruktur dan menciptakan slogan baru atau city branding. Cara meyakinkan masyarakat menegnai informasi yang disampaikan di lakukan hubungan kerjasama dengan beberapa media cetak dan menciptakan sebuah aplikasi. Cara memotivasi masyarakat dengan diadakan pembangunan ifastruktur penunjang masyarakat dengan menyediakan fasilitas umum dan membentuk sikap masyarakat diadakannya pembaharuan pembangunan. A good image that can be said as a positive image of an area needs to be built by the local government. The face of Purwakarta Regency is currently more widely known by the public compared to 10 years ago especially in the local wisdom sector. This is a quick move from the local government to polish the face of Purwakarta Regency. The purpose of this study is to determine the government's efforts to shape the image of Purwakarta seen from the concept of the process of image formation (Ardianto: 2002) which consists of perceptions, beliefs, motivations and attitudes. This research uses constructivism paradigm, qualitative approach and case study method. The results of the study show that to establish community perceptions there is an improvement in infrastructure and creating a new slogan or city branding. How to convince the public about the information conveyed in a cooperative relationship with several print media and create an application. How to motivate the community with the construction of community support infrastructure by providing public facilities and shaping the attitude of the community for the development of development. Keywords: Image; Image Formation; Local Wisdom.

scholarly journals Application of the Simple Verification Method to Estimate the Weather at Makassar Maritime Station, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Didiharyono DIDIHARYONO ◽  
Giarno GIARNO
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Process Performance ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Verification Method ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Public ◽  
True Value

Verification is used to measure the quality of a weather prediction, improve process performance, and measure the value of weather estimation. Initially, weather verification developed after Finley published his paper on the verification of tornado events. The type of data, objectives, and scale can make a different method in using weather verification. If there are some parameters that can be predicted, a simple question is consequently often asked by the public: how accurate are weather forecasts? Nowadays, the public wants a simple answer in 1 value that is presented quantitatively. The aim of the research is to develop a simple method that can answer the accuracy of weather prediction in a value that is easily understood by the public. Practically, validation comparing between prediction and observation parameters is divided into 2, namely dichotomous and comparing the values. This research tries to combine all weather prediction variables into a dichotomous variable with a threshold. Moreover, this technique is tested on weather predictions for the port of Makassar over a year. The results show that a certain threshold can be used to change the weather variable to be dichotomous. With the application of this method, forecast accuracy and suitability between the predicted parameters can be obtained. Moreover, the weather forecast issued by the Makassar Maritime Station shows the average true value of the forecast to be 69.1 %, and then the capabilities vary by forecasters, which range from 61 to 79 %. HIGHLIGHTS Weather forecast verification is used to measure the quality of a weather forecast, improve process performance, and the value of weather forecasts The character of the weather variables and their predictions is unique and influences the type of evaluation method To facilitate the public's assessment of the accuracy of weather predictions, it is necessary to combine weather prediction evaluation methods in one value Using the tolerance threshold whether a deviant prediction is used to combine various weather predictive variables Average true value of the forecast is 69.1 % and the different capabilities of each forecaster, which range from 61 to 79 % GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Balancing the public interest and self-interest: The face of peer review in Australia

2020 ◽  
pp. 103237322097219
Author(s):  
Wendy Shelton ◽  
Kerry Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
The Public ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The Face ◽  
Individual Self

The implementation of peer review by Australia’s two largest accountancy professional bodies during the 1990s provides a case study in which the interaction of the public interest and self-interest is examined. It is argued that on occasions where individual self-interest of members conflicts with self-interest of the collective, the public interest motivates a way forward.

scholarly journals An enhanced dual IDW method for high-quality geospatial interpolation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanglin Li
Keyword(s):  
Ordinary Kriging ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
The Public ◽  
Data Process ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
The Face ◽  
Spatial Interpolation Method ◽  
Stability And Accuracy ◽  
Inverse Distance

AbstractMany geoscience problems involve predicting attributes of interest at un-sampled locations. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) is a standard solution to such problems. However, IDW is generally not able to produce favorable results in the presence of clustered data, which is commonly used in the geospatial data process. To address this concern, this paper presents a novel interpolation approach (DIDW) that integrates data-to-data correlation with the conventional IDW and reformulates it within the geostatistical framework considering locally varying exponents. Traditional IDW, DIDW, and ordinary kriging are employed to evaluate the interpolation performance of the proposed method. This evaluation is based on a case study using the public Walker Lake dataset, and the associated interpolations are performed in various contexts, such as different sample data sizes and variogram parameters. The results demonstrate that DIDW with locally varying exponents stably produces more accurate and reliable estimates than the conventional IDW and DIDW. Besides, it yields more robust estimates than ordinary kriging in the face of varying variogram parameters. Thus, the proposed method can be applied as a preferred spatial interpolation method for most applications regarding its stability and accuracy.

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