scholarly journals The Unforeseen Consequences of Extended Deterrence: Moral Hazard in a Nuclear Client State

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 218-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Narang ◽  
Rupal N. Mehta

Do “nuclear umbrellas” create a moral hazard that can increase the risk of war? In this article, we investigate whether situations of extended deterrence in which a nuclear patron makes a defensive commitment to a nonnuclear client state can inadvertently increase the likelihood that a client will initiate a crisis with another state. Using data on the crisis behavior of states from 1950 to 2000, we estimate the impact of a nuclear umbrella on various crisis outcomes, including the initiation and escalation of militarized conflict. Interestingly, we find no evidence that such commitments increase the risk of war or even two-sided violence at lower levels. However, consistent with both the moral hazard logic and bargaining theories of war, we show that this appears to be because potential target states offer increased policy concessions to client states to avoid costly fighting. Thus, the link between nuclear umbrellas and moral hazard appears to be real, but it is reflected in the division of benefits rather than a greater likelihood of war. The results have important policy implications as the US contemplates extending its nuclear umbrella.

Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 5619-5619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward J Dulac III ◽  
Karen A Joy ◽  
Roger Ndindjock ◽  
Katharine B Coyle ◽  
Rolin L Wade

Abstract Introduction In non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), particularly diffuse large B-cell (DLBCL) and follicular (FL) lymphomas, the prevalence, burden of disease, including that of relapse/recurrence, and quality of life (QoL) play a role in how novel treatment strategies are evaluated. We conducted a literature review to identify whether the current understanding of the prevalence, burden of illness (BOI) including QoL in these two predominant NHL histologies is sufficient to support novel treatment and resource allocation decisions. Methods Using EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane, conference abstracts, treatment guidelines, and government, business and industry literature such as data from the WHO, we identified estimates for prevalence and BOI, defined as disease-related costs and QoL, for DLBCL and FL, from 2005 to 2013 in the US and EU5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK). In addition to appropriate MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) terms, search terms included, but were not limited to, burden of illness, quality of life, QoL, HRQoL, cost, direct cost, resource use, resource utilization, economic, incidence, prevalence, epidemiology, and mortality. Findings BOI-related information within DLBCL and FL are very limited and antiquated DLBCL Only one health economic study was identified – a US study using data from 1999-2000 in patients with aggressive NHL, including DLBCL (Kutikova et al. Leuk Lymphoma. 2006). Among the patients receiving initial treatment, which did not include the current standard of care R-CHOP, 68% of patients experienced treatment failure. The incremental cost of treatment failure was $14,174 per month, driven by higher initial treatment costs ($13,866 vs $4,754) and the need for secondary and/or palliative care ($5,062). However, these data may not accurately depict relapse rates and costs associated with more current standards of care. For QoL, one study was identified in DLBCL, a US based study in the elderly. The NCI sponsored Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medical Health Outcomes Survey database was used to evaluate QoL in elderly DLBCL patients using the Short Form (SF-36) Health Survey. Patients surveyed 0–1 year after the diagnosis of DLBCL had poor QoL scores (physical component [PCS] median=33.6, mental component [MCS] median=40.8, poor self-rated health: 51.6%) (Kelly et al. Blood. 2012). FL Only one health economic study was identified – a US study using data from 2006-2009 which estimated the cost of disease progression. Results showed that mean overall per patient per month (PPPM) costs over the 6-month follow-up were significantly higher for patients with progressive disease (PD) vs non-PD ($3527 vs. $860; difference=$ 2667; p<0.001) (Beveridge et al. Leuk Lymphoma. 2011). One QoL study was identified, a UK study that reported statistically significant differences by disease state using multiple QoL instruments. The total scores derived from the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy – Lymphoma (FACT-Lym) questionnaire showed that relapsed patients have lower QoL scores (109.7) than newly diagnosed patients (136.4), those achieving partial (128.81) or complete response (133.28), or when disease free (135.26) (p = 0.001) (Pettengell et al. Ann of Oncol. 2008). Regarding prevalence data, in the EU5, prevalence of DLBCL ranges from 30 – 58% of NHL cases and in the US estimates range from 25 – 35%. Prevalence of FL is lower, ranging from 11 – 19% in the EU5 and 20 – 25% in the US. Regarding the prevalence of relapse/recurrent disease, one-third of DLBCL patients are either relapsed or refractory after standard therapy (Friedberg. Clin Cancer Res. 2011; Abramson et al. Blood. 2005). Conclusions Currently available data related to BOI and prevalence are limited and dated making it difficult to accurately assess the impact of DLBCL and FL on patients and healthcare systems. In the absence of renewed information it may be challenging to quantify the incremental impact that novel regimens may have on clinical outcomes, BOI, and QoL. While NHL mortality has steadily decreased over the past few decades as treatment options have improved, updated and accurate epidemiologic and BOI data are needed to better characterize the impact that novel treatments in development may have on the overall clinical, BOI and patient-reported outcomes in DBLCL and FL. Disclosures: Dulac: Celgene Corporation: Employment. Joy: IMS Health: Employment. Ndindjock: IMS Health: Employment. Coyle: IMS Health: Employment. Wade: IMS Health: Employment, Research Funding.


Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 400-422
Author(s):  
Kylie Reale ◽  
Evan McCuish ◽  
Raymond Corrado

Although past studies demonstrated the heterogeneity of the criminal career patterns of juveniles with sexual offenses (JSOs), such studies did not directly assess whether JSOs have different adult offending outcomes compared with juvenile nonsex offenders. Using data on a subsample of males from the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study, JSOs ( n = 78), juveniles with violent offenses (JVOs; n = 550), and juveniles with nonviolent offenses (JNVOs; n = 281) were compared across a variety of adult offending outcomes. JSOs were not associated with a specific trajectory of general offending in adulthood, nor were they associated with a range of adult criminal career parameters (e.g., frequency, severity, specialization, and versatility). However, a range of other indicators of juvenile offending were associated with general offending in adulthood. For juvenile males who experience incarceration, many elements of their offending history mattered for adult offending outcomes, but not sexual offending. Policy implications for treatment and management are discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050038
Author(s):  
Muhammad Amir Alvi ◽  
Amir Rafique ◽  
Khurram Shehzad

Despite a substantial growth in efficiency and profitability, South Asian region’s well-established banking system is likely to be incapable to grasp wide sections of the population, particularly the deprived ones. Numerous studies revealed that financial inclusion impact bank stability, but no significant empirical study has been made on the economies of South Asian region. The aim of the study is to explore the impact of financial inclusion on bank stability across South Asian region using data from 88 commercial banks from four economies (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) over the period of 2012–2018. Results using two-step system GMM suggest that an increase in financial inclusion enhances bank stability across economies of South Asian region. This study contains some significant policy implications to generate real opportunities for financial inclusion to improve bank stability.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krug ◽  
Sebastian Bähr ◽  
Katharina Diener ◽  
Martin Abraham

This paper investigates the impact of fathers’ flexible working hours on their willingness to contribute to domestic work. We first hypothesize that fathers will contribute more if they have the possibility to work flexible hours. Second, fathers are assumed to contribute less if their female partners have the possibility to work flexible hours. We test our hypotheses using data from a vignette study, where fathers evaluate hypothetical job offers to their non-employed partner with regard to the contribution to domestic work they are willing to offer if their partner accepts the job. We find that fathers’ flexible hours increase their willingness to contribute to childcare but not to household work, partially supporting hypothesis one. Regarding hypothesis two, we find no effects of the female partner’s flexible working hours on fathers’ contribution to childcare or household work. We conclude our paper with some policy implications.


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Friehe ◽  
Thomas J. Miceli

AbstractGreater trial delay is commonly associated with decreasing demand for trials, thereby bringing about an equilibrium for a given trial capacity. This note highlights that – in contrast to this premise – trial delay may in fact increase trial demand. Such an outcome is established for a scenario in which the number of cases is endogenous based on the deterrence effect of lawsuits. That trial demand may increase with longer delay makes multiple stable equilibria possible. This reality has important policy implications, which are discussed.


Author(s):  
Michael D White ◽  
Janne E Gaub ◽  
Aili Malm ◽  
Kathleen E Padilla

Abstract Drug and alcohol offences represent a significant portion of police work. Officers commonly rely on subjective indicators of intoxication, and prosecutors depend on officer evidence collection, written reports, and testimony at trial. Police body-worn cameras (BWCs) have diffused widely in policing partly due to their perceived evidentiary value, but the extent to which BWCs affect the adjudication of such offences remains unanswered. The current study explores this question with 7,000 misdemeanour cases from Tempe (Arizona), filed from 2014 to 2017. The Tempe Police Department deployed BWCs from November 2015 to May 2016. Results indicate that BWCs had no impact on guilty outcomes, but cameras were associated with significantly shorter time to adjudication. We discuss the important policy implications of these thought-provoking findings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Vera Zerlinda Alamsyah Sulaiman

This paper explains the main factors underlying China's policy of refusing North Korea's nuclear proliferation, whereas the two countries have established defense alliance relations since the breakup of the Korean War. Geopolitically, North Korea is a strategic country for China in the East Asian region, and both countries view the presence of the US military in the region as a threat. Subsequently, North Korea began to develop its nuclear capability to challenge the continuous US military presence in South Korea. Although China and North Korea see the US influence as a security threat, China maintains its position of refusing North Korea nuclear proliferation. Previous studies regarding the relations between the two countries have explained the factors that underlie China's refusal of North Korea's nuclear proliferation. However, there have been no studies that precisely portray how nuclear weapons can influence China's policy-making towards its allies. By using extended deterrence perspective, this paper explains the variables that influence China's rejection of North Korea's nuclear proliferation. The main argument in this study is that China refuses North Korea's nuclear proliferation as a result of the disadvantage if North Korea continues its nuclear proliferation and the impact towards the regional stability that is unfavorable to China.


Author(s):  
Eleftherios Giovanis ◽  
Oznur Ozdamar

In response to the threat posed by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the UK prime minister announced on the 23rd of March strict lockdowns and introduced a new way of living and working, at least temporarily. This included working from home (WHF) wherever possible. Many experts from the IT industry were long arguing about the potential for WFH, which suddenly now became indisputable. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of WFH on the individuals’ perception about their future financial situation and their mental well-being. We apply a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) combined with the UKHLS COVID-19 survey conducted in April 2020. Our findings suggest that those who have not experienced a shift from working at the employer’s premises to WFH became more concerned about their future financial situation. However, we find that WFH has a negative impact on mental well-being. On the other hand, we find no difference in the mental well-being when we consider those who work from home on occasion. The findings of this study have policy implications for government, firms and health practitioners. In particular, a balance between WFH and at the employer’s premises may provide both financial security and maintain the mental and psychological well-being at satisfying levels.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nermeen Abdullah ◽  
Yong Tan

This paper investigates the determinants of commercial bank profitability in oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using data from 11 countries over the period 2004–2014. Since banks are under no obligation to fill reports to Bankscope database, irregular reporting banks are omitted from the sample and the model is re-estimated using only regular reporting banks, and a comparative analysis between total banks’ sample and regular reporting banks’ sample is provided. Using the two-step system GMM and fixed effects models, the results indicate that credit risk is negative and highly significant when irregular reporting banks are omitted from the sample, particularly in the non-oil group, unlike the oil countries case, which indicates that adding irregular reporting banks to the sample could lead to bias in some estimated coefficients if they constitute a considerable percentage of the total banks’ sample. Diversification is a key determinant for profitability in oil countries. No enough evidence to support the impact of financial inclusion and financial openness on bank profitability. In addition, the global financial crisis has significantly affected bank profitability in oil countries. Several policy implications are provided to the bank management to follow based on each country group.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Ryan Strong

The impact of new technologies within and across industries is only felt through their widespread diffusion, yet studies of technology diffusion are scarce compared to other aspects of the innovation process. The electric power industry is one industry that is currently undergoing substantial change as a result of both technological and institutional innovations. In this dissertation I examine the economic rationale for the adoption of smart meters by electric power utilities and the relationship between smart meters and the evolving electric power industry. I contribute to empirical research on technology diffusion by studying the early diffusion of smart meters in the US electric power industry.Using a panel dataset and econometric models, I analyze the determinants of both the interfirm and intrafirm diffusion of smart meters in the United States. The empirical findings suggest multiple drivers of smart meter diffusion. Policy and regulatory support have had a significant, positive impact on adoption but have not been the only relevant determinants. The findings also suggest that utility characteristics and some combination of learning, cost reductions, and technology standards have been important determinants affecting smart meter diffusion. I also explore the policy implications resulting from this analysis for enhancing the diffusion of smart meters. The costs and benefits of adopting smart meters have been more uncertain than initially thought, suggesting that some policy support for adoption was premature. The coordination of policies is also necessary to achieve the full benefits of using smart meters.


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