A Note on Trial Delay and Social Welfare: The Impact of Multiple Equilibria

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Friehe ◽  
Thomas J. Miceli
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Important Policy ◽  
Deterrence Effect ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Stable Equilibria

AbstractGreater trial delay is commonly associated with decreasing demand for trials, thereby bringing about an equilibrium for a given trial capacity. This note highlights that – in contrast to this premise – trial delay may in fact increase trial demand. Such an outcome is established for a scenario in which the number of cases is endogenous based on the deterrence effect of lawsuits. That trial demand may increase with longer delay makes multiple stable equilibria possible. This reality has important policy implications, which are discussed.

scholarly journals The Unforeseen Consequences of Extended Deterrence: Moral Hazard in a Nuclear Client State

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 218-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Narang ◽  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Moral Hazard ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Potential Target ◽  
Extended Deterrence ◽  
Important Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Target States ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Client State ◽  
The Impact

Do “nuclear umbrellas” create a moral hazard that can increase the risk of war? In this article, we investigate whether situations of extended deterrence in which a nuclear patron makes a defensive commitment to a nonnuclear client state can inadvertently increase the likelihood that a client will initiate a crisis with another state. Using data on the crisis behavior of states from 1950 to 2000, we estimate the impact of a nuclear umbrella on various crisis outcomes, including the initiation and escalation of militarized conflict. Interestingly, we find no evidence that such commitments increase the risk of war or even two-sided violence at lower levels. However, consistent with both the moral hazard logic and bargaining theories of war, we show that this appears to be because potential target states offer increased policy concessions to client states to avoid costly fighting. Thus, the link between nuclear umbrellas and moral hazard appears to be real, but it is reflected in the division of benefits rather than a greater likelihood of war. The results have important policy implications as the US contemplates extending its nuclear umbrella.

Implicate or Exonerate? The Impact of Police Body-Worn Cameras on the Adjudication of Drug and Alcohol Cases

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D White ◽  
Janne E Gaub ◽  
Aili Malm ◽  
Kathleen E Padilla
Keyword(s):  
Police Department ◽  
Police Work ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Subjective Indicators ◽  
Important Policy ◽  
Evidence Collection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Drug And Alcohol

Abstract Drug and alcohol offences represent a significant portion of police work. Officers commonly rely on subjective indicators of intoxication, and prosecutors depend on officer evidence collection, written reports, and testimony at trial. Police body-worn cameras (BWCs) have diffused widely in policing partly due to their perceived evidentiary value, but the extent to which BWCs affect the adjudication of such offences remains unanswered. The current study explores this question with 7,000 misdemeanour cases from Tempe (Arizona), filed from 2014 to 2017. The Tempe Police Department deployed BWCs from November 2015 to May 2016. Results indicate that BWCs had no impact on guilty outcomes, but cameras were associated with significantly shorter time to adjudication. We discuss the important policy implications of these thought-provoking findings.

EXOGENOUS REINFECTION AND RESURGENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

2004 ◽  
Vol 12 (02) ◽  
pp. 231-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. MOGHADAS ◽  
M. E. ALEXANDER
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Saturated Incidence ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Multiple Stable Equilibria ◽  
Exogenous Reinfection

The importance of exogenous reinfection versus endogenous reactivation for the resurgence of tuberculosis (TB) has been a matter of ongoing debate. Previous mathematical models of TB give conflicting results on the possibility of multiple stable equilibria in the presence of reinfection, and hence the failure to control the disease even when the basic reproductive number is less than unity. The present study reconsiders the effect of exogenous reinfection, by extending previous studies to incorporate a generalized rate of reinfection as a function of the number of actively infected individuals. A mathematical model is developed to include all possible routes to the development of active TB (progressive primary infection, endogenous reactivation, and exogenous reinfection). The model is qualitatively analyzed to show the existence of multiple equilibria under realistic assumptions and plausible range of parameter values. Two examples, of unbounded and saturated incidence rates of reinfection, are given, and simulation results using estimated parameter values are presented. The results reflect exogenous reinfection as a major cause of TB emergence, especially in high prevalence areas, with important public health implications for controlling its spread.

scholarly journals Modelling microbiome recovery after antibiotics using a stability landscape framework

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam P. Shaw ◽  
Hassan Bassam ◽  
Chris P. Barnes ◽  
A. Sarah Walker ◽  
Nigel Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Microbiome ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Short Courses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Stable Equilibria

AbstractTreatment with antibiotics is one of the most extreme perturbations to the human microbiome. Even standard courses of antibiotics dramatically reduce the microbiome’s diversity and can cause transitions to dysbiotic states. Conceptually, this is often described as a ‘stability landscape’: the microbiome sits in a landscape with multiple stable equilibria, and sufficiently strong perturbations can shift the microbiome from its normal equilibrium to another state. However, this picture is only qualitative and has not been incorporated in previous mathematical models of the effects of antibiotics. Here, we outline a simple quantitative model based on the stability landscape concept and demonstrate its success on real data. Our analytical impulse-response model has minimal assumptions with three parameters. We fit this model in a Bayesian framework to data from a previous study of the year-long effects of short courses of four common antibiotics on the gut and oral microbiomes, allowing us to compare parameters between antibiotics and microbiomes, and further validate our model using data from another study looking at the impact of a combination of last-resort antibiotics on the gut microbiome. Using Bayesian model selection we find support for a long-term transition to an alternative microbiome state after courses of certain antibiotics in both the gut and oral microbiomes. Quantitative stability landscape frameworks are an exciting avenue for future microbiome modelling.

scholarly journals Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (39) ◽  
pp. e2105624118
Author(s):  
Quentin Gallea ◽  
Dominic Rohner
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Strategic Interaction ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Theoretic Model ◽  
Important Policy ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Game Theoretic Model ◽  
The Impact

Globalization is routinely blamed for various ills, including fueling conflict in strategic locations. To investigate whether these accusations are well founded, we have built a database to assess any given location’s strategic importance. Consistent with our game-theoretic model of strategic interaction, we find that overall fighting is more frequent in strategic locations close to maritime choke points (e.g., straits or capes), but that booming world trade openness considerably reduces the risks of conflict erupting in such strategic locations. The impact is quantitatively sizable, as moving one SD (1,100 km) closer to a choke point increases the conflict likelihood by 25% of the baseline risk in periods of low globalization, while reducing it during world trade booms. Our results have important policy implications for supranational coordination.

Soziale Disziplinierung im flexiblen Kapitalismus

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (136) ◽  
pp. 339-356
Author(s):  
Tobias Wölfle ◽  
Oliver Schöller
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Social Rights ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Capitalist Development ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Municipal Level

Under the term “Hilfe zur Arbeit” (aid for work) the federal law of social welfare subsumes all kinds of labour disciplining instruments. First, the paper shows the historical connection of welfare and labour disciplining mechanisms in the context of different periods within capitalist development. In a second step, against the background of historical experiences, we will analyse the trends of “Hilfe zur Arbeit” during the past two decades. It will be shown that by the rise of unemployment, the impact of labour disciplining aspects of “Hilfe zur Arbeit” has increased both on the federal and on the municipal level. For this reason the leverage of the liberal paradigm would take place even in the core of social rights.

scholarly journals Public reporting of performance measures in long-term care in Canada: does it make a difference?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Poldrugovac ◽  
J E Amuah ◽  
H Wei-Randall ◽  
P Sidhom ◽  
K Morris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Public Reporting ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Evidence of the impact of public reporting of healthcare performance on quality improvement is not yet sufficient to draw conclusions with certainty, despite the important policy implications. This study explored the impact of implementing public reporting of performance indicators of long-term care facilities in Canada. The objective was to analyse whether improvements can be observed in performance measures after publication. Methods We considered 16 performance indicators in long-term care in Canada, 8 of which are publicly reported at a facility level, while the other 8 are privately reported. We analysed data from the Continuing Care Reporting System managed by the Canadian Institute for Health Information and based on information collection with RAI-MDS 2.0 © between the fiscal years 2011 and 2018. A multilevel model was developed to analyse time trends, before and after publication, which started in 2015. The analysis was also stratified by key sample characteristics, such as the facilities' jurisdiction, size, urban or rural location and performance prior to publication. Results Data from 1087 long-term care facilities were included. Among the 8 publicly reported indicators, the trend in the period after publication did not change significantly in 5 cases, improved in 2 cases and worsened in 1 case. Among the 8 privately reported indicators, no change was observed in 7, and worsening in 1 indicator. The stratification of the data suggests that for those indicators that were already improving prior to public reporting, there was either no change in trend or there was a decrease in the rate of improvement after publication. For those indicators that showed a worsening trend prior to public reporting, the contrary was observed. Conclusions Our findings suggest public reporting of performance data can support change. The trends of performance indicators prior to publication appear to have an impact on whether further change will occur after publication. Key messages Public reporting is likely one of the factors affecting change in performance in long-term care facilities. Public reporting of performance measures in long-term care facilities may support improvements in particular in cases where improvement was not observed before publication.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Amendment of Taiwan’s Certified Public Accountant Act in 2007 on Large Accounting Firms

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1229
Author(s):  
Chung-Cheng Yang ◽  
Jianxiong Chen ◽  
Wen-Chi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implications ◽  
Certified Public Accountant ◽  
Accounting Firms ◽  
Survey Report ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Theory Of Law ◽  
Revenue Function ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Public Accountant

Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission of the Executive Yuan promulgated the fully amended Certified Public Accountant Act in 2007, which directly led to significant changes in accounting law. From the perspective of the economic theory of law, this study investigates the amendment of the Certified Public Accountant Act resulting in an increase or decrease in the overall revenue and different revenue shares of accounting firms, and puts forward measures that should be taken by accounting firms and stakeholders. We focus on large accounting firms and divide the sample period into before and after 2008. This study uses the translog revenue function and revenue share functions of the public accounting industry, and based on the 1989–2017 Survey Report of Audit Firms in Taiwan, and we find that the amendment of the Certified Public Accountant Act has had a positive effect on overall revenue, increasing overall revenue and the overall management advisory services shares, and in reducing the overall accounting and auditing shares and tax services shares of large accounting firms. Additional analyses provide regulators with public policy implications and provide accounting firms with managerial information.

scholarly journals Design and Optimal Control of a Multistable, Cooperative Microactuator

Actuators ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Michael Olbrich ◽  
Arwed Schütz ◽  
Tamara Bechtold ◽  
Christoph Ament
Keyword(s):  
Deflection Angle ◽  
Initial State ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Vertical Displacements ◽  
State Uncertainty ◽  
Stable Equilibria ◽  
Freely Moving ◽  
Time And Energy ◽  
Multiple Stable Equilibria ◽  
Optimal Trajectory Planning

In order to satisfy the demand for the high functionality of future microdevices, research on new concepts for multistable microactuators with enlarged working ranges becomes increasingly important. A challenge for the design of such actuators lies in overcoming the mechanical connections of the moved object, which limit its deflection angle or traveling distance. Although numerous approaches have already been proposed to solve this issue, only a few have considered multiple asymptotically stable resting positions. In order to fill this gap, we present a microactuator that allows large vertical displacements of a freely moving permanent magnet on a millimeter-scale. Multiple stable equilibria are generated at predefined positions by superimposing permanent magnetic fields, thus removing the need for constant energy input. In order to achieve fast object movements with low solenoid currents, we apply a combination of piezoelectric and electromagnetic actuation, which work as cooperative manipulators. Optimal trajectory planning and flatness-based control ensure time- and energy-efficient motion while being able to compensate for disturbances. We demonstrate the advantage of the proposed actuator in terms of its expandability and show the effectiveness of the controller with regard to the initial state uncertainty.

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