Who follows whom? A coincidence analysis of military action, public opinion and threats

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 753-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Haesebrouck
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Military Action ◽  
The Public

Does public opinion act as a constraint on military action, are ordinary citizens the easily manipulated targets of the public relations efforts of their governments, or does the general public react as assertively to threats as decisionmakers? This article examines the causal connection between military action, public opinion and threats. Empirically, it focuses on the pattern of EU member state participation in two recent military operations: the 2011 intervention in Libya and the operation against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Three competing causal models on the relationship between threats, public opinion and military action were derived from the scholarly literature and tested with coincidence analysis. The results of the analysis show that public opinion acted as a constraint on executives during the Libya operation. However, there was no direct causal link between public opinion and military participation in the operation against IS, in which both military action and public support were an effect of threat. More generally, the results suggest that the context of the intervention is decisive for the relation between threat, military action and public support. More specifically, whether public opinion constitutes a constraint on military action or is an effect of threats to national interests depends on whether these threats are clear and tangible.

Casualties and Public Support for Military Conflict with North Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Timothy S. Rich
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
American Military ◽  
Military Action ◽  
The Public ◽  
Human Cost ◽  
Experimental Survey

ABSTRACTWhat explains the American public’s support for military conflict with North Korea? Despite increased rhetoric, few analyses address American public opinion or whether priming the public to consider casualties influences their perceptions. The results of an experimental survey design suggest that mentioning the human cost—even without explicit references to American casualties—reduces support for American military action against North Korea but not broader perceptions of North Korea.

Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality

2010 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew A. Baum ◽  
Tim Groeling
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Public Support ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sustained Change ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Over Time

AbstractPrevailing theories hold that U.S. public support for a war depends primarily on its degree of success, U.S. casualties, or conflict goals. Yet, research into the framing of foreign policy shows that public perceptions concerning each of these factors are often endogenous and malleable by elites. In this article, we argue that both elite rhetoric and the situation on the ground in the conflict affect public opinion, but the qualities that make such information persuasive vary over time and with circumstances. Early in a conflict, elites (especially the president) have an informational advantage that renders public perceptions of “reality” very elastic. As events unfold and as the public gathers more information, this elasticity recedes, allowing alternative frames to challenge the administration's preferred frame. We predict that over time the marginal impact of elite rhetoric and reality will decrease, although a sustained change in events may eventually restore their influence. We test our argument through a content analysis of news coverage of the Iraq war from 2003 through 2007, an original survey of public attitudes regarding Iraq, and partially disaggregated data from more than 200 surveys of public opinion on the war.

Public Support for Policies to Reduce School Shootings: A Moral-Altruistic Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 002242782095320
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Burton ◽  
Justin T. Pickett ◽  
Cheryl Lero Jonson ◽  
Francis T. Cullen ◽  
Velmer S. Burton
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
School Safety ◽  
Public Support ◽  
School Shootings ◽  
Mass Murder ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
School Crime ◽  
Moral Intuitions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Altruistic Fear

Objectives: The recurring mass murder of students in schools has sparked an intense debate about how best to increase school safety. Because public opinion weighs heavily in this debate, we examine public views on how best to prevent school shootings. We theorize that three moral-altruistic factors are likely to be broadly relevant to public opinion on school safety policies: moral intuitions about harm, anger about school crime, and altruistic fear. Methods: We commissioned YouGov to survey 1,100 Americans to explore support for a range of gun control and school programming policies and willingness to pay for school target hardening. We test the ability of a moral-altruistic model to explain public opinion, while controlling for the major predictors of gun control attitudes found in the social sciences. Results: The public strongly supports policies that restrict who can access guns, expand school anti-bullying and counseling programs, and target-harden schools. While many factors influence attitudes toward gun-related policies specifically, moral-altruistic factors significantly increase support for all three types of school safety policies. Conclusions: The public favors a comprehensive policy response and is willing to pay for it. Support for prevention efforts reflects moral intuitions about harm, anger about school crime, and altruistic fear.

scholarly journals Conceptual Approaches to the Problem of national Security Concept

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
Ю. О. Загуменна
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
National Security ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Progressive Development ◽  
Goals And Objectives ◽  
Special Protection

A comprehensive theoretical and legal study of the transformation of ideas about the nature of national security reform in domestic jurisprudence has been carried out. The author has defined the priorities and directions of the reform in the field of national security and, more importantly, its theoretical and methodological basis. It has been determined that the main object of the reform in the field of national security is the whole complex of public relations, which is subject to special protection by the system of entities of ensuring national security. The system of such social relations is centered around the defining national interests, which usually include the vital interests of a man, society and the state and the implementation of which ensures the state sovereignty, its progressive development, and safe living conditions and welfare of citizens. It has been noted that the main purpose of national security reform is to improve legislation and governance in the national security sector, which can provide qualitative strengthening in accordance with current and future needs of society to protect key national interests from external and internal real and potential threats. It has been concluded that national security is not considered in modern, both domestic and international science, exclusively as an “acquisition” and a sphere of monopoly responsibility of the state; we cannot eliminate the active participation of civil society structures, which should exercise public control over the course of such a reform and, if necessary, should have the tools of close communication with state authorities at the stage of initiating the reform, constructing its goals and objectives, directions and perspectives and at the stages of its implementation. Restriction of the capacity of the state, especially in times of economic crisis, highlights the need to optimize the participation of non-government actors in ensuring national security. Obviously, such activity of the non-governmental sector should be strongly encouraged by legislative instruments, legitimizing measures for national security reform through its close involvement and providing them with additional public support.

scholarly journals The Limits of Income Inequality: Public Support for Social Policy across Rich Democracies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nate Breznau ◽  
Carola Hommerich
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Liberal Societies ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
English Speaking ◽  
Income Concentration

Does public opinion react to inequality, and if so, how? The social harms caused by increasing inequality should cause public opinion to ramp up demand for social welfare protections. However, the public may react to inequality differently depending on institutional context. Using ISSP and WID data (1980-2006) we tested these claims. In liberal institutional contexts (mostly English-speaking), increasing income inequality predicted higher support for state provision of social welfare. In coordinated and universalist contexts (mostly of Europe), increasing inequality predicted less support. Historically higher income concentration predicted less public support, providing an account of the large variation in inequality within the respective liberal and coordinated contexts. The results suggest opinions in liberal societies – especially with higher historical inequality – reached the limits of inequality, reacting negatively; whereas in coordinated/universalist societies – especially with lower historical inequality – opinions moved positively, as if desiring more inequality.

scholarly journals JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER, STANDARD OIL, AND THE RISE OF CORPORATE PUBLIC RELATIONS IN PROGRESSIVE AMERICA, 1902–1908

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-263
Author(s):  
Stephen R. Leccese
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Progressive Reform ◽  
The Public ◽  
Corporate Public Relations ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
History Of ◽  
Standard Oil Company ◽  
Oil Company

When the Supreme Court ordered the dissolution of Standard Oil in 1911, it marked the end of an unsuccessful campaign by the company to improve its public standing. Standard Oil's failure to mollify public opinion in the aftermath of Ida Tarbell's muckraking masterpiece, “The History of the Standard Oil Company,” has resulted in a historiographical record that negatively assesses the company's response. This article reassesses the company response by placing it within the wider context of business history in the early twentieth century. It offers a detailed exploration of the public relations initiatives of Standard Oil from 1902 to 1908. Additionally, the article views the affair through the lens of standard corporate practices of the early Progressive Era, when large businesses had only begun to promote favorable public images. It argues that progressive reform inadvertently aided the rise of big business by teaching corporations the importance of promoting favorable public images. This wider context reveals that Standard Oil's public relations response, if unsuccessful, was not as aloof as others have argued. In fact, the company made a concerted effort to change public opinion about its business practices.

Investigations and Public Opinion

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Kriner ◽  
Eric Schickler
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
General Mechanism ◽  
American People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Congressional Investigations ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Investigative Activity

This chapter proposes and empirically tests a general mechanism through which congressional investigative activity could affect presidential behavior and policy making more broadly: by influencing the president’s well of support among the American people. It proceeds in four parts. First, it describes two mechanisms through which committee investigations of executive misconduct are well positioned to shape levels of public support for the president. The empirical analysis then begins by asking a basic, but essential pre-cursor question: does the public generally support Congress employing its investigative powers to uncover and pursue allegations of abuse of power by the executive branch? Having answered this question in the affirmative, the analysis continues by merging the database of congressional investigative activity described in Chapter 2 with more than sixty years of public opinion data measuring support for the president. The chapter then presents the results of several original survey experiments that isolate the influence of congressional investigations on public opinion independent of potential confounding factors.

Strategy and the Surge

The Last Card ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 296-313
Author(s):  
Joshua Rovner
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Strategic Effect ◽  
Practical Strategy ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Subsequent Rise

This chapter studies the relationship between strategy and the surge. Strategy is the bridge that links military operations and political objectives in war. A practical strategy describes those objectives and explains how military action will achieve them. The chapter disputes the idea that the surge constituted a new US strategy in Iraq. Instead, it can be considered as a “decision to put strategy on hold.” The surge, the chapter argues, encouraged a perverse strategic effect—by obscuring the political objectives of the war, it undercut efforts to forge competent and self-reliant governance in Iraq and contributed to the breakdown of the Iraqi state in the face of the subsequent rise of the Islamic State.

Corruption and the Public Service Ethos in Mid-Victorian Administration: The Case of Leonard Horner and the Factory Office*

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (575) ◽  
pp. 860-891
Author(s):  
Ian Cawood
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
The Public ◽  
Victorian Britain ◽  
The Press ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Changing Attitudes

Abstract While the problem of political corruption in mid-nineteenth century Britain has been much studied, the experience of corrupt behaviour in public bodies, both new and long established, is comparatively neglected. This article takes the example of one of the first inspectorates set up after the Great Reform Act, the Factory Office, to examine the extent of corrupt practices in the British civic state and the means whereby it was addressed. It examines the changing processes of appointment, discipline and promotion, the issues of remuneration and venality, and the relationships between inspectors, workers, factory owners, the government and the wider civil service, and the press and public opinion. The article argues that the changing attitudes of the inspectors, especially those of Leonard Horner, were indicative of a developing ‘public service ethos’ in both bureaucratic and cultural settings and that the work of such unsung administrators was one of the agencies through which corrupt behaviour in the civic structures of Victorian Britain was, with public support, challenged. The article concludes that the endogenous reform of bureaucratic practice achieved by the factory inspectorate may even be of equal significance as that which resulted from the celebrated Northcote–Trevelyan Report of 1854.

scholarly journals Responsibilization and Sexual Stigma Under Austerity: Surveying Public Support for Government-Funded PrEP in England

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-653
Author(s):  
Timothy Hildebrandt ◽  
Leticia Bode ◽  
Jessica S. C. Ng
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sexual Stigma ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Media Narratives

Abstract Introduction Under austerity, governments shift responsibilities for social welfare to individuals. Such responsibilization can be intertwined with pre-existing social stigmas, with sexually stigmatized individuals blamed more for health problems due to “irresponsible” sexual behavior. To understand how sexual stigma affects attitudes on government healthcare expenditures, we examine public support for government-provisioned PrEP in England at a time when media narratives cast the drug as an expensive benefit for a small, irresponsible social group and the National Health Service’s long-term sustainability was in doubt. Methods This paper uses data from an original survey (N = 738) conducted in September 2016, when public opinion should be most sensitive to sexual stigma. A survey experiment tests how the way beneficiaries of PrEP were described affected support for NHS provision of it. Contrary to expectations, we found that support was high (mean = 3.86 on a scale of 1 to 5) irrespective of language used or beneficiary group mentioned. Differences between conditions were negligible. Discussion Sexual stigma does not diminish support for government-funded PrEP, which may be due to reverence for the NHS; resistance to responsibilization generally; or just to HIV, with the public influenced by sympathy and counter-messaging. Social policy implications Having misjudged public attitudes, it may be difficult for the government to continue to justify not funding PrEP; the political rationale for contracting out its provision is unnecessary and flawed. With public opinion resilient to responsibilization narratives and sexual stigma even under austerity, welfare retrenchment may be more difficult than social policymakers presume.

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