Chapter III. The World Economy

1979 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 26-39
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
The World

The most important changes in the world economy since our last forecasts were prepared at the beginning of the year have been the rise in the price of oil and the associated rises in the pound and dollar against other currencies and particularly against the yen.Despite these developments we have not significantly changed our forecasts of total OECD output in 1979. This is partly because we seem to have underestimated in February the strength of the upward trend in the industrial sector especially in North America. But we do expect higher rates of inflation, partly as a result of the oil price rise, both this year and next, and in 1980 rates of output are likely to slow down rather more than we thought in February. This is partly because of the transfer of purchasing power from oil importers to oil exporters, who will spend only part of it on additional imports, and partly because governments in oil-importing countries must be expected, as in 1974–75, to compound the depressing effects by their policy reactions to faster inflation and higher import bills.

Prospects for Non-Oil Developing Countries

1986 ◽  
Vol 116 ◽  
pp. 31-37
Author(s):  
S.A.B. Page
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World

Last year, the unexpectedly slow growth of output in the world economy, and of trade relative to it, reinforced doubts as to whether developing countries would recover from their depression and financing crisis. Since then, the fall in oil prices has altered substantially the outlook for industrial countries. The process of re-examining the prospects for developing countries has scarcely begun.This note describes developments in their trade and financing over the past five years, since the second oil price rise, as background to the judgement that the trends expected previously would have been economically and politically impossible to sustain. It then assesses the prospect now—after the fall in oil prices.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1971 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 16-33
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

Economic growth in the industrial countries fell short of our expectations during the summer, particularly in Japan and Italy and to a lesser extent in West Germany. Despite the resumption of growth in the United Kingdom and a firmly upward trend of production in North America, the aggregate output of the OECD countries increased only slowly and for the year as a whole the rise in their GNP may not reach 3½ per cent in real terms.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Recession in North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 208 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Iana Liadze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The World

Chapter II. The World Economy

1971 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 22-35
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Growth

Developments in the world economy have on the whole been much as we predicted in February. It is becoming increasingly clear that renewed expansion is under way in the United States at a pace which, even if it falls short of the Administration's hopes, is more than compensating for the slowing down in industrial countries outside North America. This deceleration has become quite marked in Japan as well as Western Europe, but we expect a faster pace to be resumed before the end of the year. We still put real growth in OECD countries at around 4 per cent in 1971, unless there is a prolonged steel strike in the United States. This compares with about 2½ per cent last year, and we expect the rising trend to continue into 1972.

The World Economy

2001 ◽  
Vol 176 ◽  
pp. 35-60
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Capacity Limits ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Unusual Occurrence ◽  
Capacity Output ◽  
World Output

The five years up until the end of 2000 saw a period of rapid growth in the world economy, with OECD output increasing by 3¼ per cent a year, and overall world output rising by 3¾ per cent a year. Sustained strong growth of this nature is an unusual occurrence. Once capacity limits are reached, growth is bound to slow. This is particularly likely if full capacity output is attained simultaneously in a number of regions, much as we believe happened in North America and Europe in 2000, where growth was 5 per cent and 3¼ per cent respectively. We anticipate that growth will slow to 1.9 per cent in North America and to 2½ per cent in the European Union in 2001. World growth is expected to slow to under 3 per cent in 2001, with OECD growth declining to under 2¼ per cent, which would be the weakest seen since 1993. Although this cannot be regarded as a deeply worrying slowdown, there are significant risks associated with our projections.

Chapter I. The Oil Situation

1974 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 8-16
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Financial Problem ◽  
The World ◽  
Sheer Size ◽  
Physical Availability ◽  
Posted Price

When we last reported in November, it seemed that the major problem confronting the world economy (so far as oil was concerned) might be the physical availability of supplies—in other words that world industrial output would be constrained by supply rather than demand shortages. Since then, however, the posted price of crude oil (against which the host governments' ‘take’ is calculated) has been roughly doubled on top of the increases imposed last October, and this now makes it likely that the ‘real’ deflationary impact of the price rise will soon outweigh the effects of supply shortages. And, as many countries will be affected in this way, there are likely to be ‘second-round’ contractionary effects on world trade. The international financial problem and the serious plight of the non-oil-producing developing countries have also been thrown into greater relief by the latest price rise. The sheer size of the latest price rise may also lead to a significant ‘price elasticity’ effect on oil consumption regardless of any rationing or other direct controls.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Uk

Indications from the first half of the year suggested that the present cyclical expansion was starting to slow in much of the OECD. The pace of activity moderated particularly sharply in North America. Canadian GDP fell slightly in the second quarter of the year and inventory levels rose considerably. Trade growth was also lower than expected, although this partially reflected the regional impact of recent developments in Mexico. Within Europe, GDP growth slowed in the UK, France and Italy, although growth proved unexpectedly robust in a number of the smaller economies, particularly Ireland, Sweden and Finland. Output also continued to grow sharply in Australia and South East Asia.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North America ◽  
Deleterious Effect ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Scale ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

The early part of 1995 saw considerable turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, resulting in significant currency realignments. Relative exchange-rate patterns have not changed very much in the last three months, and the effects of the real exchange-rate realignment are beginning to be felt, with growth slowing in those countries whose currencies appreciated, and inflationary pressures building up in some of the countries that depreciated. In addition to the destabilising effects of the realignment, signs are beginning to emerge that growth is slowing of its own accord throughout the OECD, particularly in North America. The recovery also appears to have become somewhat more hesitant than we had anticipated in Germany and the UK, although other European countries are continuing to expand at above trend rates. The fragility of the Japanese financial system has been clear for some time, but the potential scale of bad debts is only now becoming known, and this appears to be having a deleterious effect on both financial and consumer confidence.

Chapter 2. The World Economy

1968 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 18-31
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
North America ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
National Output ◽  
Parallel Acceleration

Fuller information confirms the estimates which we made six months ago and repeated in February that the total real national output of the industrial countries increased in 1967 by about 3 per cent and the value of world trade by 5 per cent. But, though the errors were not big in relation to the aggregate for the year, it has now become clear that our assessment of trends in the later months was not entirely accurate. The resumption of fairly rapid economic growth in North America of which we were already aware was in fact accompanied to a significantly greater extent than we previously realised by a parallel acceleration in continental Western Europe.

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