Prospects for Non-Oil Developing Countries

1986 ◽  
Vol 116 ◽  
pp. 31-37
Author(s):  
S.A.B. Page
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World

Last year, the unexpectedly slow growth of output in the world economy, and of trade relative to it, reinforced doubts as to whether developing countries would recover from their depression and financing crisis. Since then, the fall in oil prices has altered substantially the outlook for industrial countries. The process of re-examining the prospects for developing countries has scarcely begun.This note describes developments in their trade and financing over the past five years, since the second oil price rise, as background to the judgement that the trends expected previously would have been economically and politically impossible to sustain. It then assesses the prospect now—after the fall in oil prices.

Sovereignty and Developing Countries: Current Status and Future Prospects at the WTO

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-409
Author(s):  
HANS MAHNCKE
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
World Trade Organization ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Powers

Globalization, as evidenced in increased trade, economic development, and the emergence of new global powers, has meant that the world economy has undergone significant changes over the past two decades. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is more than a potent representation of these developments, it is often seen, along with its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), as having enabled the process of globalization. However, there are profound concerns about what lies ahead in an increasingly complex economic and regulatory setting, in particular for developing countries (DCs).

Chapter II. The World Economy

1990 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 24-49
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Stephen Dulake
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run

Uncertainties over the prospects for the oil price mean that the short-term forecast is subject to a wider margin of error than usual. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait could lead to a reduction of world oil production by at least eight per cent immediately and has already produced a significant rise in oil prices. Our central forecast assumes that in the short term oil prices will stay firmer, but that in the longer run there will be no major change in oil market conditions. We have assumed that oil prices (or more precisely the arithmetic average of Brent and Dubai spot prices) will be around $25 per barrel in the second half of 1990, but that they will fall thereafter. This should leave crude oil prices in the range $20–22 per barrel by the end of 1991. Annex I to the chapter investigates the effects of an oil price rise on the world economy, and looks in particular at the distribution of the effects across the major economies. The conclusion of the Annex is that a 25 per cent rise in oil prices is likely to raise inflation in the major seven economies by only a quarter to a half a per cent in the short run, and to lower output by up to a half per cent.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 27-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Jan Willem In't Veld
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The start of hostilities in the Gulf in January appears to have removed some of the uncertainties surrounding the oil market, and oil prices have dropped to around 20 dollars per barrel. This development should help sustain growth and reduce inflation over the next two years. Box A sets out some calculations of the effects of the change in our oil price assumptions on our forecast. The appreciation of the D-Mark bloc and the emergence of a recession in the US driven by a wave of bank failures has persuaded us to be less optimistic then we were in our last forecast. Table 1 summarises the outlook. We are forecasting a slowdown in the rate of growth in the major economies in 1991, with some recovery in 1992 and thereafter. The slowdown has already taken place in the US, the UK and Canada, whereas in 1990 Japanese and German growth was at historically high levels. Chart 1 plots levels of capacity utilisation in the major economies. Only in the US has output clearly fallen below capacity, but record levels of utilisation in Japan, Germany and France inevitably imply some slowdown in growth from recent levels.

Trade protectionism and agriculture

1980 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 293-297
Author(s):  
J S Hillman
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The World

The proliferation in recent years of non-tariff restrictions on trade in agricultural commodities gives cause for concern. Not a few of these restrictions serve short term political ends and are not in the best or widest interests of the industry. Freer trade can solve many of the problems of slow growth, inflation and unemployment by moving the world economy to greater efficiency. Continued and increased protection will cost both developed and developing countries dear.

Chapter III. The World Economy

1979 ◽  
Vol 88 ◽  
pp. 26-39
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Price Rise ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
The World

The most important changes in the world economy since our last forecasts were prepared at the beginning of the year have been the rise in the price of oil and the associated rises in the pound and dollar against other currencies and particularly against the yen.Despite these developments we have not significantly changed our forecasts of total OECD output in 1979. This is partly because we seem to have underestimated in February the strength of the upward trend in the industrial sector especially in North America. But we do expect higher rates of inflation, partly as a result of the oil price rise, both this year and next, and in 1980 rates of output are likely to slow down rather more than we thought in February. This is partly because of the transfer of purchasing power from oil importers to oil exporters, who will spend only part of it on additional imports, and partly because governments in oil-importing countries must be expected, as in 1974–75, to compound the depressing effects by their policy reactions to faster inflation and higher import bills.

scholarly journals Turkey’s Export Potential: A Gravity Model Analysis

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sezai Ata
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
World Economy ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Common Language ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Set Up ◽  
High Level

Given the high level of integration of the world economy, foreign trade has become very important for the development of a country. Even though Turkey exports goods and services to the majority of countries in each continent, until recently Turkey has basically focused on exports to developed European countries. The main purpose of this study is to analyze Turkey's export potential with the help of the gravity model. For this purpose, first a gravity model has been set up using panel data which consists of bilateral data for 68 countries for the period 1980-2009, and then Turkey’s exports potential to 67 countries, accounting for more than 90 percent of Turkey’s total exports, has been calculated. The most important finding of the study is that Turkey’s exports in general is below potential and there is a further room for increasing exports. In this context, according to our analysis, while Turkey’s export potential has been used up especially for developed European countries, high levels of untapped export potential exists for the majority of neighboring countries and for some of the developing countries. Another finding from this study is that trade between two countries increases proportional to their GDPs and decreases proportional to the distance between them. While the existence of features such as common language, contiguity, being parts of the same state in the past and using the same currency increases the trade between two countries, the effect of some variables on trade such as the real exchange rate depends on countries' level of development.

Summary and Appraisal

1991 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 3-8
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Investment Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Economies

It is clear now that 1991 will be a year of slow growth for the world economy. In the United States in particular there is real fear that a contraction of credit will result in a sharp cutback of economic activity. Our central expectation is that a reduction in inflation, helped by lower oil prices, and a rather more relaxed monetary policy will prevent a deep or prolonged downturn in America. Moreover the buoyancy of investment demand in Germany will help sustain activity in the European economies. The case of the UK economy is potentially more serious, although even here it is reasonable to expect a recovery from the recession to be under way by the end of this year.

The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Social Conditions ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The United Nations

This volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its seventieth anniversary. Prepared at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and first published in 1948 as the World Economic Report (subsequently renamed the WESS), it is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication of this kind, recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends, and offering relevant policy recommendations. This volume highlights how well WESS has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses have influenced and have been influenced by the prevailing discourse over the past seven decades. The volume critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policymaking and the shaping of the world economy. Although world economic and social conditions have changed significantly over the past seven decades and so have the policy recommendations of the Survey, some of its earlier recommendations remain relevant today; recommendations in WESS provided seven decades ago seem remarkably pertinent as the world currently struggles to regain high levels of employment and economic activity. Thus, in many ways, WESS was ahead of the curve on many substantive issues. Publication of this volume will enhance the interest of the wider community of policymakers, academics, development practitioners, and members of civil society in the analytical work of the UN in general and UN-DESA in particular.

A Long Stagnation, or Capitalism without Growth

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louçã Francisco ◽  
Ash Michael
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Secular Stagnation ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Growth Prospects

Chapter 11 assesses the growth prospects of the world economy. The history of global economic doomsaying is traced briefly, a frequently reasonable position that has not done well with the facts for the past hundred years. Capitalism has been adept at escaping from the pit and pendulum. A set of global imbalances is then reviewed that are seen as posing a severe threat to global economic stability and certainly to the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth. The Great Recession following the Crash of 2007–8 might be “different this time.” Historical and contemporary fears of “secular stagnation” are discussed but the speculative nature of stagnationist assessments is acknowledged.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Initial Effect ◽  
Small Rise

Fuller data confirm the impression which we formed in May that OECD countries' total output did not change much in the first quarter. It probably increased by about ¼ per cent, with even this small rise attributable wholly to stock movements in the US. Final demand in the US fell and there were declines in total output in a number of countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and possibly Italy (for which there are conflicting estimates), white France achieved only marginal growth. The fall was notably severe in Germany, where construction suffered badly in the cold winter. This probably had a wider impact also, and, in North America at least, the initial effect of the slump in oil prices seems to have been depressive, with drilling activity sharply reduced, especially in the US. There may also have been a tendency for expenditure, perhaps on investment in particular, to be deferred in the expectation of falling prices and interest rates.

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