Maturity of Judgment and Perceptual Deterrence

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
pp. 1762-1781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heejin Lee ◽  
Christopher J. Sullivan ◽  
J. C. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Perceptual Deterrence ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Recent deterrence literature has found that the degree to which sanction threats are perceived to influence subsequent offending differs within individuals and between individuals over time. This study examines whether three psychosocial aspects (temperance, perspective, responsibility) relevant to the maturity of judgment predict within-individual and between-individual differences in levels of perceptual deterrence. Random effects regression models with fixed effects (hybrid models) are used to estimate the impact of maturity of judgment on the perceived risks, costs, and benefits of crime among a sample of serious juvenile offenders from the Pathways to Desistance study over 7 years of development. The results support both within-person effects and between-person effects. More mature judgment ability is generally associated with the perception of greater risks, heavier costs of punishment, and fewer rewards of crime. The rate of change in perceptual deterrence by maturity of judgment varies between individuals. Implications of the findings are discussed.

scholarly journals The Impact of New Drug Launches on Hospitalization in 2015 for 67 Medical Conditions in 15 OECD Countries: A Two-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank R. Lichtenberg
Keyword(s):  
Prescription Drug ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Pharmaceutical Innovation ◽  
Cost Offset ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Offsets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract There are two types of prescription drug cost offsets. The first type of cost offset – from prescription drug use – is primarily about the effect of changes in drug quantity (e.g. due to changes in out-of-pocket drug costs) on other medical costs. Previous studies indicate that the cost offsets from prescription drug use may slightly exceed the cost of the drugs themselves. The second type of cost offset – the cost offset from prescription drug innovation – is primarily about the effect of prescription drug quality on other medical costs. Two previous studies (of a single disease or a single country) found that pharmaceutical innovation reduced hospitalization, and that the reduction in hospital cost from the use of newer drugs was considerably greater than the innovation-induced increase in pharmaceutical expenditure. In this study, we reexamine the impact that pharmaceutical innovation has had on hospitalization, employing a different type of 2-way fixed effects research design. In lieu of analyzing different countries over time for a single disease, or different diseases over time for a single country, we estimate the impact that new drug launches that occurred during the period 1982–2015 had on hospitalization in 2015 for 67 diseases in 15 OECD countries. Our models include both country fixed effects and disease fixed effects, which control for the average propensity of people to be hospitalized in each country and from each disease. The number of hospital discharges and days of care in 2015 is significantly inversely related to the number of drugs launched during 1982–2005, but not significantly related to the number of drugs launched after 2005. (Utilization of drugs during the first few years after they are launched is relatively low, and drugs for chronic conditions may have to be consumed for several years to achieve full effectiveness.) The estimates imply that, if no new drugs had been launched after 1981, total days of care in 2015 would have been 163% higher than it actually was. The estimated reduction in 2015 hospital expenditure that may be attributable to post-1981 drug launches was 5.3 times as large as 2015 expenditure on those drugs.

The Impact of PTSD-Linked Strain Sensitivity on Violent Offending: Differences in Effects During Adolescence Versus Early Adulthood

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-194
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Wojciechowski
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Early Adulthood ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Strain Sensitivity ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Violent Offending ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesInvestigate the relevance of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)-linked strain sensitivity associated with exposure to violence for predicting violence outcomes among juvenile offenders during adolescence and early adulthood.MethodsThis study uses the Pathways to Desistance data and to test relevant relationships. Two series of negative binomial regression models were estimated to test hypotheses, one corresponding to each period of the life course.ResultsResults indicated that witnessed violence interacted with PTSD status in adolescence, indicating that individuals afflicted with PTSD demonstrated heightened sensitivity to this strain, manifested in increased violent offending.ConclusionsResults indicate that witnessed violence may act as a trigger during adolescence, resulting in juvenile offenders with PTSD responding with violence. This may have treatment implications for individuals suffering from PTSD.

scholarly journals Psychopathy, gang membership, and moral disengagement among juvenile offenders

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Dhingra ◽  
Agata Debowska ◽  
Kathryn Sharratt ◽  
Philip Hyland ◽  
Susanna Kola-Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Violence Exposure ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Moral Disengagement ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Gender Violence ◽  
Gang Membership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of psychopathy factors and gang membership on moral disengagement while controlling for age, ethnicity, having run away from home, family member and/or friend arrests, substance misuse, parental physical fights, violence exposure (victimization and witnessing), and maternal warmth and hostility. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on data collected from serious juvenile offenders (n=769) as part of the Pathways to Desistance Study. Findings – Six independent variables made a unique statistically significant contribution to the model: gang membership, age, gender, violence exposure, and psychopathy Factors 1 and 2. Psychopathy Factor 1 was the strongest predictor of moral disengagement. Originality/value – Results indicate that youth with heightened psychopathic traits make greater use of strategies to rationalize and justify their harmful behaviour against others. Implications in relation to theory and previous studies are discussed.

scholarly journals Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor G. McAloon ◽  
Patrick Wall ◽  
Francis Butler ◽  
Mary Codd ◽  
Eamonn Gormley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Epidemiological Modelling ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Close Contacts

ABSTRACTBackgroundContact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling.MethodsWe analysed data from 140,204 contacts of 39861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Only ‘close’ contacts were included in the analysis. A close contact was defined as any individual who had had > 15 minutes face-to-face (<2 m) contact with a case; any household contact; or any individual sharing a closed space for longer than 2 hours, in any setting.ResultsThe number of contacts per case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerably over time, and was temporally associated with government interventions. Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days.DiscussionThese data were collected for a specific purpose and therefore any inferences must be made with caution. The data are representative of contact rates of cases, and not of the overall population. However, the data may be a more accurate indicator of the likely degree of onward transmission than might be the case if a random sample of the population were taken. Furthermore, since we analysed only the number of close contacts, the total number of contacts per case would have been higher. Nevertheless, this analysis provides useful information for monitoring the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts; for helping pre-empt increases or decreases in case numbers, and for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.

Safety profile of ripretinib, including impact of alopecia, and Palmar-Plantar Erythrodysesthesia Syndrome (PPES) on patient-reported outcomes (PROs), in ≥ fourth-line advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST): Analyses from INVICTUS.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 11539-11539
Author(s):  
Suzanne George ◽  
Michael C. Heinrich ◽  
John Raymond Zalcberg ◽  
Sebastian Bauer ◽  
Hans Gelderblom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Safety Profile ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
P Value ◽  
Tolerability Profile ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Advanced Gist ◽  
Over Time

11539 Background: Ripretinib is a novel switch-control TKI that broadly inhibits KIT and PDGFRA kinase signaling. In INVICTUS (NCT03353753), a randomized, double-blind, placebo (PBO)-controlled trial of ripretinib in ≥4th-line advanced GIST, ripretinib reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 85% vs PBO with a favorable overall safety profile. Common ( > 20%) adverse events (AEs) included, but were not limited to, alopecia and PPES. Exploratory analyses evaluated the impact of alopecia and PPES on quality of life (QoL). Methods: Patients (pts) with advanced GIST previously treated with at least imatinib, sunitinib, and regorafenib were randomized (2:1) to ripretinib 150 mg QD or PBO. AEs were graded using CTCAE v4 and PROs collected using EQ-5D-5L (EQ5D) and EORTC QLQ-C30 (C30). Repeated measures (RM) models assessed the impact of alopecia and PPES on 5 PROs (EQ5D visual analogue scale; and C30 physical functioning, role functioning, and the overall health and overall QoL questions) within the ripretinib arm. Fixed effects were sex, alopecia/PPES, and ECOG scores at baseline. Results: 128/129 randomized pts received treatment (85 ripretinib 150 mg QD; 43 PBO). Alopecia, regardless of causality, occurred in 44 (51.8%) on ripretinib (34 [40.0%] grade 1; 10 [11.8%] grade 2) and 2 (4.7%) on PBO (both grade 1). PPES occurred in 18 (21.2%) on ripretinib (11 [12.9%] grade 1; 7 [8.2%] grade 2); none on PBO. The median times in days to first occurrence and worst severity grade with ripretinib were 57.0 and 62.5 for alopecia; 56.5 and 57.0 for PPES. The RM models showed a slight trend towards improvement in PRO score over time for pts with alopecia; the only association reaching a P-value of < 0.05 was between alopecia and increased overall QoL. None of the associations between PPES and PRO scores reach P < 0.05. All PRO p-values are nominal, and no statistical significance is being claimed. Conclusions: Ripretinib had a favorable overall safety and tolerability profile. When stratified by alopecia and PPES, patient-reported assessments of function, overall health, and overall QoL were maintained over time. For both alopecia and PPES, onset and maximum severity occurred almost simultaneously, indicating that these events generally did not progressively worsen. These results suggest that alopecia and PPES are manageable and do not have a negative effect on function, overall health, and QoL. Clinical trial information: NCT03353753 .

scholarly journals Cultural change and the migration choice

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauro Lanati ◽  
Alessandra Venturini
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Cultural Change ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Genetic Traits ◽  
Cultural Proximity ◽  
World Econ ◽  
Cultural Affinity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

AbstractCultural differences play an important role in shaping migration patterns. The conventional proxies for cross country cultural differences, such as common language; ethnicity; genetic traits; or religion, implicitly assume that cultural proximity between two countries is constant over time and symmetric. This is far from realistic. This paper proposes a gravity model for international migration which explicitly allows for the time varying and asymmetric dimensions of cultural proximity. In accordance with Disdier, Tai, Fontagné, Mayer (Rev World Econ, 145(4):575–595, 2010) we assume that the evolution of bilateral cultural affinity over time is reflected in the intensity of bilateral trade in cultural goods. The empirical framework includes a comprehensive set of high dimensional fixed effects which enable identification of the impact of cultural proximity on migration over and beyond the effect of pre-existing cultural and historical ties. The results are robust across different econometric techniques and suggest that positive changes in cultural relationships over time foster bilateral migration.

scholarly journals Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor G. McAloon ◽  
Patrick Wall ◽  
Francis Butler ◽  
Mary Codd ◽  
Eamonn Gormley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Infected Case ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Epidemiological Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Close Contacts

Abstract Background Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Results Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. Conclusions We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling.

The impact of mass-level ideological orientations on immigration policy preferences over time

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-291
Author(s):  
Jens Peter Frølund Thomsen ◽  
Arzoo Rafiqi
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mass Level ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper introduces a dynamic perspective on how (personal) political ideology shapes reactions to immigration policies at the mass level. Greater ethnic diversity and growing calls for multiculturalism represent a disproportionately greater challenge to rightists because they value conformity, tradition, and stability more than leftists. Consequently, we hypothesize that the impact of political ideology on opposition to immigration has become stronger over time. Analyses show that: (a) leftists were less opposed to immigration than rightists in both 2002 and 2014, and (b) rightists have become more opposed to immigration in the time between 2002 and 2014, whereas leftists’ reactions remained stable across this period. We tested our motivated reasoning hypothesis in a repeated cross-sectional (fixed effects regression) analysis of individual-level data from 18 countries (N = 55,367). The individual-level data on political ideology and immigration policy preferences is from the European Social Survey data sets fielded in 2002 and 2014.

Developmental Heterogeneity in Social Support Among Juvenile Offenders: Relevance of Social Support Withdrawal for the Dulling of Maturational Decline in Offending

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 712-733
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Wojciechowski
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Group Assignment ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Trajectory Group ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
Over Time

Social support is a highly relevant predictor of offending. Despite this, little research has examined how this construct develops over time and how withdrawal of social support may result in “late bloomer” offending. This study used the Pathways to Desistance to data to test hypotheses related to these research questions. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify trajectories of social support, and ordinary least squares regression was used to determine the relevance of trajectory group assignment for predicting differences in offending between adolescence and adulthood. Results indicated that withdrawal of social support resulted in a dulling of the maturational decline in offending frequency typically observed following adolescence. Implications are discussed.

scholarly journals The interaction between social factors and adversities on self-harm during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal analysis of 49 227 UK adults

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Paul ◽  
Daisy Fancourt
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Social Study ◽  
Support Network ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Background Little is known about which factors exacerbate and buffer the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related adversities on changes in thinking about and engaging in self-harm over time. Aims To examine how changes in four social factors contribute to changes in self-harm thoughts and behaviours over time and how these factors in turn interact with adversities and worries about adversities to increase risk for these outcomes. Method Data from 49 227 UK adults in the UCL COVID-19 Social Study were analysed across the first 59 weeks of the pandemic. Fixed-effects logistic regressions examined time-varying associations between social support quality, loneliness, number of days of face-to-face contact for >15 min and number of days phoning/video calling for ≥15 min with self-harm thoughts and behaviours. We then examined how these four factors in turn interacted with the total number of adversities and worries about adversity and how this affected outcomes. Results Increases in the quality of social support were associated with decreases in the likelihood of both outcomes, whereas greater loneliness was associated with an increase in their likelihood. Associations were less clear for telephone/video contact and face-to-face contact with outcomes. Social support buffered and loneliness exacerbated the impact of adversity experiences on self-harm behaviours. Conclusions These findings suggest the importance of the quality of one's social support network, rather than the mere presence of contact, for reducing the likelihood of self-harm behaviours in the context of COVID-19 pandemic-related adversity and worry.

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