Current and future test reference years at a 5 km resolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-413
Author(s):  
C Liu ◽  
W Chung ◽  
F Cecinati ◽  
S Natarajan ◽  
D Coley
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Energy Estimates ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Building Simulations ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Frequently, the computer modelling of the natural and human-made environment requires localised weather files. Traditionally, the weather files are based on the observed weather at a small number of locations (14 for the UK). Unfortunately, both the climate and the weather are known to be highly variable across the landscape, so the small number of locations has the potential to cause large errors. With respect to buildings, this results in incorrect estimates of the annual energy use (sometimes by a factor of 2), or of overheating risk. Here we use a validated weather generator running on a 5 × 5 km grid to create probabilistic test reference years (pTRYs) for the UK at 11,326 locations. We then investigate the spatial variability of these pTRYs and of annual energy estimates and temperatures in buildings generated by them, both now and in 2080. Further pTRYs targeted at understanding the impact of minimum and maximum temperatures are proposed and produced at the same locations. Finally, we place these pTRYs, which represent the first set of reference weather files at this spatial resolution in the world and that include the urban heat island effect, into a publicly accessible database so researchers and industry can access them. Practical applications: Insufficiently localised weather data for building simulations have limited the accuracy of previous estimations of energy use and overheating risk in buildings. This work produces localised probabilistic test reference years (pTRYs) across the whole UK for now and future climates. In addition, a new pTRY method has been proposed in order to overcome an unexpected shortcoming of traditional pTRYs in representing typical maximum and minimum temperatures. These current and future weather data will be of interest to various disciplines including those interested in low carbon design, renewable energy and climate resilience.

scholarly journals Energy Security Problem amid Global Energy Transition

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 772-784
Author(s):  
Yury V. Borovsky
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

In the early 2020s the worlds transition from carbon-intensive to climate-neutral energy use has already become a discernible and a difficult-to-reverse process. With Joe Bidens election as US president, the United States have returned to the Paris Climate Agreement and have become a key driver of this process (along with the EU and China). As a result, the international community has reached a consensus on the ongoing energy transition. This process will require considerable effort and may take several decades. Nevertheless, the impact of energy transition on traditional approaches to energy security, which emerged largely as a result of the global oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s and are centered around the supply of fossil fuels, is already a relevant research topic. This problem is examined relying on the relevant terminological, theoretical and factual material. The article concludes that energy transition will ultimately undermine the carbon paradigm that has underpinned energy security policies since the 1970s. Rapid development of renewable and other low-carbon energy sources will certainly remove key energy security risks of energy importers and, possibly, allow them to achieve energy independence. However, a post-carbon era may also generate new risks. For countries that rely heavily on oil, gas and coal exports, energy transition will result in the loss of markets and revenues. It may present an energy security threat for them as well as it will require a costly and technologically complex process of the energy sector decarbonization. Some exporters, especially those with high fuel rents and insufficient financial reserves, may face serious economic and social upheavals as a result of energy transition. The EU and the US energy transition policies reflect provisions of all three fundamental international relations theoretical paradigms, including realism. This means that the EU and the US policy, aimed at promoting climate agenda, may be expected to be rather tough and aggressive. China as the third key player in energy transition is still following a liberal course; however, it may change in the future.

Rethinking Energy at the Crossroads

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Araújo
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Energy Estimates ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

The discovery of oil in Pennsylvania in 1859 was a relatively inconspicuous precursor to what would become an epic shift into the modern age of energy. At the time, the search for “rock oil” was driven by a perception that lighting fuel was running out. Advances in petrochemical refining and internal combustion engines had yet to occur, and oil was more expensive than coal. In less than 100 years, oil gained worldwide prominence as an energy source and traded commodity. Along similar lines, electricity in the early 1900s powered less than 10% of the homes in the United States. Yet, in under a half a century, billions of homes around the world were equipped to utilize the refined form of energy. Estimates indicate that roughly 85% of the world’s population had access to electricity in 2014 (World Bank, n.d.b). For both petroleum and electricity, significant changes in energy use and associated technologies were closely linked to evolutions in infrastructure, institutions, investment, and practices. Today, countless decision-makers are focusing on transforming energy systems from fossil fuels to low carbon energy which is widely deemed to be a cleaner, more sustainable form of energy. As of 2016, 176 countries have renewable energy targets in place, compared to 43 in 2005 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century [REN21], 2017). Many jurisdictions are also setting increasingly ambitious targets for 100% renewable energy or electricity (Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF], 2016). In 2015, the G7 and G20 committed to accelerate the provision of access to renewables and efficiency (REN21, 2016). In conjunction with all of the above priorities, clean energy investment surged in 2015 to a new record of $329 billion, despite low, fossil fuel prices. A significant “decoupling” of economic and carbon dioxide (CO2) growth was also evident, due in part to China’s increased use of renewable energy and efforts by member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to foster greater use of renewables and efficiency (REN21, 2016).

Effects of occupant behaviour on energy performance in buildings: a green and non-green building comparison

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1939-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Almeida ◽  
Vivian W.Y. Tam ◽  
Khoa N. Le ◽  
Yujuan She
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Green Building ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Occupant Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Simulations ◽  
University Buildings ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Impact

PurposeOccupants are one of the most impacting factors in the overall energy performance of buildings, according to literature. Occupants’ behaviours and actions may impact the overall use of energy in more than 50%. In order to quantify the impact that occupant behaviour has in the use of energy, this study simulated interactions between occupants and the systems present in two actual buildings. The main aim was to compare the deviations due to occupant behaviour with the actual conditions and energy use of the two buildings.Design/methodology/approachThe buildings used as a case study in this research were green buildings, rated according to the Australian Green Star certification system as a 6-star and a non-rated building. The two buildings are university buildings with similar characteristics, from Western Sydney University, in Sydney, Australia. A comparison was performed by means of building simulations among the use of energy in both buildings, aiming to understand if the green rating had any impact on the energy related to occupant behaviour. Therefore, to represent the actual buildings' conditions, the actual data related with climate, geometry, systems, internal loads, etc. were used as input variables in the simulation models of the green and the non-rated buildings. Both models were calibrated and validated, having as target the actual monitored use of electricity.FindingsOccupants were categorized according to their levels of energy use as follows: saving, real and intensive energy users. Building simulations were performed to each building, with varying parameters related with lighting, plug loads, windows/doors opening, shading and air conditioning set points. Results show that occupant behaviour may impact the buildings' energy performance in a range of 72% between the two extremes. There is no significant relationship between the green rating and the way occupants behave in terms of the energy use.Originality/valueThis study intends to show the impact of different categories of occupant behaviour in the overall energy performance of two university buildings, a non-rated and a green-rated building, having as reference an actual representation of the buildings. Additionally, the study aims to understand the main differences between a green-rated and a non-rated building when accounting with the previous categories.

scholarly journals Impact of Passive Cooling on Thermal Comfort in a Single-Family Building for Current and Future Climate Conditions

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 5332
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Grygierek ◽  
Izabela Sarna
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Passive Cooling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Building Simulations ◽  
Family Building

Today, there is a great deal of emphasis on reducing energy use in buildings for both economic and environmental reasons. Investors strongly encourage the insulating of buildings. Buildings without cooling systems can lead to a deterioration in thermal comfort, even in transitional climate areas. In this article, the effectiveness of natural ventilation in a passive cooling building is analyzed. Two options are considered: cooling with external air supplied to the building by fans, or by opening windows (automatically or by residents). In both cases, fuzzy controllers for the cooling time and supply airflow control are proposed and optimized. The analysis refers to a typical Polish single-family building. Simulations are made with the use of the EnergyPlus program, and the model is validated based on indoor temperature measurement. The calculations were carried out for different climate data: standard and future (warmed) weather data. Research has shown that cooling with external air can effectively improve thermal comfort with a slight increase in heating demand. However, to be able to reach the potential of such a solution, fans should be used.

scholarly journals Thirty years of climate mitigation: lessons from the 1989 options appraisal for the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eoin Lees ◽  
Nick Eyre
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Mitigation Options ◽  
Support Unit ◽  
The Uk

AbstractIn April 1989, the UK Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, convened a full cabinet meeting on climate change addressed by leading scientists. The presentation on mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions was made by the Head of the Energy Technology Support Unit (ETSU), Ken Currie, and identified the key potential options for mitigation by 2020. In this paper, we compare the mitigation potential identified for each proposed option with the 2019 outturn. The largest mitigation options identified were improved end use energy efficiency across the economy and the generation and use of low carbon electricity. Our analysis finds that these have been the key options adopted. Reductions in primary energy use, resulting from improvements in energy efficiency were concentrated in the period 2005–2012 which in 1989 were widely considered to be ambitious. Decarbonisation of electricity has been achieved by the displacement of coal, initially by gas and more recently by renewable electricity. Renewable electricity has exceeded 1989 expectations in the last 5 years and is now the biggest source of CO2 reductions from electricity generation. The contribution envisaged by nuclear electricity has not occurred, largely due its failure to compete in liberalised generation markets. In all cases, the policy environment has been important. We draw lessons for mitigation options to achieve the goal of net zero emissions in the next 30 years. The contribution of demand side and other modular options will remain crucial, as mass-produced technologies tend to improve more quickly than those requiring large construction projects. Environmental, social and political factors will be important, so analysis should not be a purely techno-economic assessment.

scholarly journals Generic Feasibility Assessment: Helping to Choose the Nuclear Piece of the Net Zero Jigsaw

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1229
Author(s):  
William Bodel ◽  
Kevin Hesketh ◽  
Grace McGlynn ◽  
Juan Matthews ◽  
Gregg Butler
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Feasibility Assessment ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Uk

The United Kingdom has declared a climate change policy of 100% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Efforts thus far have been limited solely to electricity generation methods. While progress has been admirable, effort now must be directed at the nation’s non-electrical energy use. Nuclear energy is an essential part of any energy future, since it is low-carbon, firm and supplies synchronous electricity; however the nation’s nuclear strategy to date has been erratic, costly and lacking in strategic oversight. A multitude of reactor designs are on offer for potential uptake, and decision-makers must have clarity of vision on what these systems must deliver before forming a strategy. Choosing between these systems, given the uncharted energy future faced by the UK is a daunting prospect. Generic feasibility assessment offers a tool for decision-makers to assist them in selecting the most suitable nuclear system for chosen future conditions. Generic feasibility assessment offers an alternative to traditional multi-attribute decision analyses, which can be confusing to even committed stakeholders when large numbers of attributes are weighted and compiled. Generic feasibility assessment forms part of a toolkit which will be of utility in achieving net zero by 2050, given the short time that remains.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of different pipe arrangements on the thermal performance of thermo-active piles

2020 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Ryan Y. W. Liu ◽  
Eleonora Sailer ◽  
David M. G. Taborda ◽  
David M. Potts
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Performance ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Far Field ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Finite Element Analyses ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Evolution With Time

Thermo-active piles are widely utilised for low carbon heating and cooling, and their uses are further encouraged in cities where there are obligations for developments larger than a certain threshold to generate a portion of their estimated energy use on site in a renewable manner. It is therefore important to model accurately the thermal performance of the designed thermo-active piles to ensure that such obligations are complied with. In this paper, the thermal performance of a thermo-active pile is quantified by the evolution with time of the power that can be harnessed from the pile, obtained from 3D thermo-hydro-mechanically coupled finite element analyses which include the simulation of a hot fluid flowing through heat exchanger pipes. Different pipe arrangements are considered in this study, in order to demonstrate the potential gains in efficiency arising from the installation of multiple U-loops within the pile. Furthermore, detailed analysis of the heat fluxes resulting from pipe-pile-soil interaction is carried out, illustrating the contribution of the different components of the system (concrete, near-field and far-field) to the overall storage of thermal energy.

scholarly journals Intelligent Services for Building Information Modeling - Assessing Variable Input Weather Data for Building Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos A. Balaras ◽  
Simon Kontoyiannidis ◽  
Elena G. Dascalaki ◽  
Kaliopi G. Droutsa
Keyword(s):  
Building Information Modeling ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Building Simulations ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Building Information ◽  
The Impact

Building Information Modeling (BIM) for optimizing the total lifecycle cost of buildings is a challenge even today. Inadequate software interoperability, high costs as a result of the fragmented nature of the building industry, lack of standardization, inconsistent technology adoption among stakeholders are just some of the obstacles that architects and engineers face. However, optimization requires a structured procedure that enables continuous changes in design variables and assessment on energy consumption. A holistic building design and construction are already introduced in Europe through the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD). The requirements have been strengthened by the EPBD recast for achieving cost optimal building designs for the life cycle of the building, moving towards nearly zero energy buildings by the end of the decade. BIM and intelligent services could play a crucial role in these efforts with improved visualization and productivity due to easy retrieval of information, increased coordination of data and exchange of information, all leading to a reduced cost for the design of energy efficient buildings. An ongoing European research project aims to contribute to these needs by developing a Virtual Energy Laboratory that will support building energy performance simulations taking into account the stochastic nature of input parameters and processes. This will be supported by information communication technology features utilizing the necessary computational power through cloud computing. This paper presents an overview of the ongoing efforts and focuses on results for assessing the impact of different input weather and climate data that are pertinent in building load and energy performance calculations.

scholarly journals Investigation and prediction of Energy consumption at St. Olavs Hospital

2021 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 04003
Author(s):  
Kristofersen, by Hans Smedsrud ◽  
Kai Xue ◽  
Zhirong Yang ◽  
Liv-Inger Stenstad ◽  
Tor Emil Giske ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Operating Room ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Operational Data

The objective of this study is to evaluate and predict the energy use in different buildings during COVID-19 pandemic period at St. Olavs Hospital in Trondheim. Based on machine learning, operational data from St. Olavs hospital combined with weather data will be used to predict energy use for the hospital. Analysis of the energy data showed that the case buildings at the hospital did not have any different energy use during the pandemic this year compared to the same period last year, except for the lab center. The energy consumption of electricity, heating and cooling is very similar both in 2019 and 2020 for all buildings, but in 2020 during the pandemic, the lab center had a reduction of 35% in electricity, compared to last year. An analysis of the energy needed for heating and cooling in the end of June to the end of November was also calculated for operating room 1 and was estimated to 256 kWh/m2 for operation room 1. The machine learning algorithms perform very well to predict the energy consumption of case buildings, Random Forest and AdaBoost proves as the best models, with less than 10% margin of error, some of the models have only 4% error. An analysis of the effect of humidification of ventilation air on energy consumption in operating room 1 was also carried out. The impact on energy consumption were high in winter and will at the coldest periods be able to double the energy consumption needed in the ventilation.

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