Class voting or economic voting? Electoral support for chavismo (1998–2015)

2021 ◽  
pp. 019251212199267
Author(s):  
Robert Bonifácio ◽  
João Carlos Amoroso Botelho
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Regional Politics ◽  
Left Turn ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Hugo Chavez

This article analyses electoral support for chavismo in Venezuela from 1998 to 2015, comprising five presidential elections (1998, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2013) and the legislative election of 2015. Drawing on a comprehensive historical series, the findings contradict an influential body of literature on Venezuelan politics and show that economic voting prevailed during the analysed period. In relation to class voting, the analysis does not find a monotonic vote, in which the poor supported Hugo Chávez and his allies, whereas the rich rejected them, at each election. The direction of associations between these classes and voting for chavismo varied over the investigated period. The findings have important implications for Latin American politics, showing the relevance of economic factors for the left turn in regional politics and helping explain the recent losses of leftist parties in presidential elections.

scholarly journals When growth is not enough: inequality, economic gains, and executive approval

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Ryan E. Carlin ◽  
Timothy Hellwig ◽  
Gregory J. Love ◽  
Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo ◽  
Matthew M. Singer
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Personal Finances ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Valence Issue

Abstract A robust economy is assumed to bolster leaders' standing. This ignores how benefits of growth are distributed. Extending the partisan models of economic voting, we theorize executives are more likely rewarded when gains from growth go to their constituents. Analyses of presidential approval in 18 Latin American countries support our pro-constituency model of accountability. When economic inequality is high, growth concentrates among the rich, and approval of right-of-center presidents is higher. Leftist presidents benefit from growth when gains are more equally distributed. Further analyses show growth and inequality inform perceptions of personal finances differently based on wealth, providing a micro-mechanism behind the aggregate findings. Study results imply that the economy is not purely a valence issue, but also a position issue.

Economic Origins of Electoral Support for Authoritarian Successors

2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byong-Kuen Jhee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
New Democracies ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Knee Jerk ◽  
The Past ◽  
Electoral Support

This study explores how economic performance prior to democratic transitions affects the fate of successors to authoritarian rulers in new democracies. It investigates 70 founding election outcomes, finding that successful economic performance under an authoritarian regime increases the vote share of successors. It also finds that the past economic performance of authoritarian rulers decreases the likelihood of government alternation to democratic oppositions. Interim governments that initiate democratic transition, however, are neither blamed nor rewarded for economic conditions during transition periods. This study concludes that electorates are not myopic and that economic voting is not a knee-jerk reaction to short-term economic performance in new democracies.

Regionální disparity ve voličském chování: Prostorová analýza voličské podpory České pirátské strany v krajských volbách

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Maškarinec
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Regional Politics ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Regional Elections

The presented paper deals with the regionalization of the electoral support of the Czech Pirate Party (Pirates) in regional elections using methods and techniques of spatial data analysis. The aim is to answer the question whether the territorial distribution of Pirate electoral support allows this party to participate in governance at the regional level and thus influence the form of regional policy in individual regions. The results of the analysis show that the spatial distribution of Pirates’ electoral support in regional elections differed quite significantly not only from the pattern found in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament and elections to the European Parliament, but also between individual regional elections. This suggests the current lack of anchorage of Pirates’ electoral support in regional politics, but at the same time, it may have its origins in the second-order character of regional elections and the candidacy of many local and regional entities in regional elections. On the other hand, the results of the regional elections in 2020 meant that the Pirates received seats in all regional councils, but especially in nine of the thirteen regions they joined the regional government (similarly to two years earlier when they joined government of capital city of Prague), gaining the opportunity to influence, with regard to its priorities, the form of regional governance in most Czech regions.

Secularization, Integration and Rationalization: Some Perspectives from Latin American Thought

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward J. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Latin American Thought ◽  
Firing Line ◽  
American Thought

For the past couple of decades the Latin Americans, like their brethren in Africa and Asia, have been hell-bent in search of ‘development’ or ‘modernization’. While the Latin Americans were on the firing line, scholars and policy-makers in both the rich nations and the poor nations were involved in setting out an intellectual framework for analyzing the developmental process. New concepts to explain the meaning of development were devised; innovative measurements to gauge the level of development were proposed; a new vocabulary to capture the nuances of development was put forth.

scholarly journals Populism Revived:Donald Trump and the Latin American Leftist Populists

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 733-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos de la Torre
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Political Community ◽  
First Century ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
American Democracy ◽  
Right Wing Populism ◽  
Hugo Chavez ◽  
Juan Peron

The twenty-first century could well become known as the populist century. No longer confined to Latin America or to the margins of European politics, populism has spread to Africa, Asia, and, with Donald Trump's election, to the cradle of liberal democracy. Even though it is uncertain what impact Trump's populism will have on American democracy, it is worth learning from Latin America, where populists have been in power from the 1930s and 1940s to the present. Even as Latin American populists like Juan Perón and Hugo Chávez included the poor and the nonwhite in the political community, they moved toward authoritarianism by undermining democracy from within. Are the foundations of American democracy and the institutions of civil society strong enough to resist US president Donald Trump's right-wing populism?

scholarly journals Image of Hugo Chavez Created by US Mass Media in Context of Venezuela 1998 Presidential Elections

2021 ◽  
pp. 66-70
Author(s):  
N.S. Pivovarova
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Hugo Chavez

This paper investigates the features of the US mass media approaches in creating the image of Hugo Chavez on the eve of the Venezuela 1998 Presidential Elections. The paper studies the historical context, which influenced the creation of Chavez's image. The socio-economic and political development of Venezuela in those days is analyzed. The key traits of Chavez’s image highlighted during the period under study, as well as the emotional background of the publications, are analyzed. Although both the domestic and foreign historiography has paid a most sufficient attention to the history of Venezuela, the biography and political activity of Hugo Chavez, his image as a presidential candidate in the 1998 Venezuela elections remains unexplored. This work aims to fill this gap. The paper systematically examines the materials of the three major US newspapers, namely, the “New York Times”, the “Wall Street Journal”, and the “Los Angeles Times”, published from July to December, 1998. The established methodologies of document analysis and quantitative content analysis are applied. The study leads to the conclusion that the USA mass media created a negative image of Hugo Chavez during the pre-election period, implementing understatements and a negative emotional background in their publications.

scholarly journals Three Waves of Populism in Latin America

2014 ◽  
pp. 153-160
Author(s):  
O. V. Varentsova
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Regimes ◽  
Political Transitions ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
The Third ◽  
Neoliberal Reforms ◽  
Hugo Chavez

Contemporary political regimes in Venezuela and Bolivia led by late Hugo Châvez (now by his successor Nicolas Maduro) and Evo Morales are considered by foreign and Russian scholars as part of the third wave of populism. In the 20th century Latin America already witnessed two waves of populism which coincided with significant political transitions, namely a transition from oligarchy to mass politics accompanied by implementation of import substitution industrialization policies, and a transition from authoritarian rule to democracy during the third wave of democratization which triggered neoliberal reforms inspired by Washington Consensus. This article presents common characteristics of Latin American populist regimes that emerged in different historical periods which help identify the origins as well as distinctive features of Venezuelan and Bolivian political regimes. It is stated that the Châvez and Morales left populist regimes resemble classic populist regimes in that they rely on incendiary anti-establishment discourse. Therefore, left populist regimes are characterized by high levels of polarization as well as weak institutionalization and class or indigenous orientation. Election of left populist leaders may lead to institutional deadlock, uneven playing field and transition to competitive authoritarianism.

Regional patterns of multilateral treaty cooperation: Is there a Latin American ‘commitment gap’?

2021 ◽  
pp. 019251212110364
Author(s):  
Carsten-Andreas Schulz ◽  
Laura Levick
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Country Level ◽  
American States ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Other World ◽  
Multilateral Treaty ◽  
Multilateral Treaties

Latin American states have long been active participants in multilateral treaty making. However, the rich history of Latin American legal activism contrasts with debates about the degree to which these states commit to international agreements. We probe the existence of this purported ‘commitment gap’ by analyzing the signing and ratification of multilateral treaties. Are Latin American states less likely to ratify agreements they have signed than states from other world regions? Using survival analysis of an original dataset on multilateral treaties deposited with the UN Secretary-General, we find no difference between Latin America and North America/Europe in terms of ratification. If a commitment gap exists, it appears to be more evident in other regions, particularly East Asia, Africa, and the Anglo-Caribbean. To the extent that there is a ‘commitment gap’ at the regional level in Latin America, it is unlikely to be due to country-level factors such as domestic institutions.

International Courts in Latin America and the Caribbean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Caserta
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Regional Politics ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Caribbean Court Of Justice ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

The book provides the first in-depth and empirically grounded analysis on the foundations and trajectories of gaining authority of the four Latin American and Caribbean regional economic courts: the Central American Court of Justice (CACJ), the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), the Andean Tribunal of Justice (ATJ), and the Mercosur Permanent Review Court (PRC). While these courts were, on their terms, established to build common markets and to enforce trade liberalization, they have often developed bodies of jurisprudence in domains often not directly associated with regional economic integration. The CCJ has been most successful in the area of human and fundamental rights; the CACJ has addressed issues related to the enforcement of the rule of law in national legal arenas and long-standing border disputes between the countries of the region; the ATJ is an island of effective adjudication on intellectual property issues; and the PRC has significantly struggled to receive a significant number of cases to rule upon all together. The particular trajectories of the four Latin American and Caribbean Regional Economic Courts (RECs) suggest that there is no universal formula for success for these institutions and that their operational path is not necessarily a function of their formally delegated competences and/or of the will of the Member States, as it is often argued in mainstream legal and political science literature. Rather, local socio-political contextual factors—such as the historical legacies of a region, the interests and dynamics of socialization of legally and politically situated actors, the nature of national and regional politics, and legal culture—often play a far more decisive role in influencing the direction of RECs during and after their establishment.

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