Economic Evaluation of Vaccination Programs: The Impact of Herd-Immunity

2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Brisson ◽  
W. J. Edmunds
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Estimating asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan: a mathematical modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Huo ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Shigui Ruan
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Antibody Prevalence ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Prevalence Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan started in December 2019 and was under control by the end of March 2020 with a total of 50,006 confirmed cases by the implementation of a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including unprecedented lockdown of the city. This study analyzes the complete outbreak data from Wuhan, assesses the impact of these public health interventions, and estimates the asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Methods By taking different stages of the outbreak into account, we developed a time-dependent compartmental model to describe the dynamics of disease transmission and case detection and reporting. Model coefficients were parameterized by using the reported cases and following key events and escalated control strategies. Then the model was used to calibrate the complete outbreak data by using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Finally we used the model to estimate asymptomatic and undetected cases and approximate the overall antibody prevalence level. Results We found that the transmission rate between Jan 24 and Feb 1, 2020, was twice as large as that before the lockdown on Jan 23 and 67.6% (95% CI [0.584,0.759]) of detectable infections occurred during this period. Based on the reported estimates that around 20% of infections were asymptomatic and their transmission ability was about 70% of symptomatic ones, we estimated that there were about 14,448 asymptomatic and undetected cases (95% CI [12,364,23,254]), which yields an estimate of a total of 64,454 infected cases (95% CI [62,370,73,260]), and the overall antibody prevalence level in the population of Wuhan was 0.745% (95% CI [0.693%,0.814%]) by March 31, 2020. Conclusions We conclude that the control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan was achieved via the enforcement of a combination of multiple NPIs: the lockdown on Jan 23, the stay-at-home order on Feb 2, the massive isolation of all symptomatic individuals via newly constructed special shelter hospitals on Feb 6, and the large scale screening process on Feb 18. Our results indicate that the population in Wuhan is far away from establishing herd immunity and provide insights for other affected countries and regions in designing control strategies and planing vaccination programs.

RISK FACTORS AND PROTECTION FACTORS FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AND VACCINATION AS A POSSIBLE MEANS OF CONTROLLING THE EPIDEMIC

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Romaniv ◽  
◽  
Bohdan Klyapchuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Special Method ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

A study of the impact of especially contextual on COVID-19 factors of the epidemic (geopolitical, climatic, socio-economic integration, social, including religious, demographic and others) was conducted. The regional dynamics of the epidemic in the Scandinavian countries was analyzed. The spatio-temporal changes of the epidemic indicators in the conditions of loyalty to risk factors (Sweden) and in the conditions of controlled risks (in other countries of the Scandinavian region) were revealed. The current research of scientists on the formation of herd immunity in the population with and without vaccination programs was generalized. The article evaluated the quality of the vaccination program in Ukraine. The threshold indicator "herd immunity" and the number of months to achieve herd immunity in Ukraine without vaccination were calculated according to a special method.

scholarly journals What serosurveillance studies tell us about the 2009 influenza pandemic

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Gary K Dowse ◽  
Ian Barr
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Antigenic Drift ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Pandemic H1n1 ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Pandemic Virus ◽  
The Impact

Surveillance of the impact of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza during its initial seasons in both hemispheres relied on routinely available indicators, including numbers and rates of laboratory-detected cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths, along with monitoring of influenza-like illness (ILI) from primary care sentinel surveillance systems. Estimates of the clinical attack rate and the case fatality ratio were imperfect. Understanding of the pathogenicity of the pandemic virus and prediction of the impact in subsequent seasons was hindered by a lack of information on actual infection rates in the population. Results of a number of serosurveys conducted in Australia and overseas countries have now become available, revealing that the arrival of the pandemic virus in modern urbanised and non-immune populations resulted in relatively similar infection rates in both the southern and northern hemispheres. Around 30?50% of children and teenagers were infected during the first pandemic season, with lower rates, around 10?20%, in young and middle-aged adults, and very few infections in older adults. There were significant numbers of mild or asymptomatic infections, and case fatality and hospitalisation ratios were much lower than those contemplated in pandemic plans. Many populations, including Australia, achieved a significant level of herd immunity during the first wave, and community susceptibility was further reduced by vaccination programs, although coverage was lower than expected. In the absence of significant antigenic drift or changes in virulence, the impact of the pandemic H1N1 virus should continue to decline in future influenza seasons.

scholarly journals Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from U.S. states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Chen ◽  
Hanwei Huang ◽  
Jiandong Ju ◽  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Jialiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Although the approved vaccines exhibited high efficacies in randomized controlled trials, their population effectiveness in the real world remains less clear, thus casting uncertainty over the prospects for herd immunity. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. Using data from 12 October 2020 to 7 March 2021, we estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10% to 8.76%). We then built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity. Our model predicts that if the average vaccination pace between January and early March 2021 (2.08 doses per 100 people per week) is maintained, the U.S. can achieve herd immunity by the last week of July 2021, with a cumulative vaccination coverage of 60.2%. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, or higher vaccine effectiveness. These findings improve our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 vaccines and can inform future public health policies regarding vaccination, especially in countries with ongoing vaccination programs.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Fiori ◽  
Gonzalo Bello ◽  
Nicolás Wschebor ◽  
Federico Lecumberry ◽  
Andrés Ferragut ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Infection ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Southern Cone ◽  
South American ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
The South ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Impact

All South American countries from the Southern cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) experienced severe COVID-19 epidemic waves during early 2021 driven by the expansion of variants Gamma and Lambda, however, there was an improvement in different epidemic indicators since June 2021. To investigate the impact of national vaccination programs and natural infection on viral transmission in those South American countries, we analyzed the coupling between population mobility and the viral effective reproduction number Rt. Our analyses reveal that population mobility was highly correlated with viral Rt from January to May 2021 in all countries analyzed; but a clear decoupling occurred since May-June 2021, when the rate of viral spread started to be lower than expected from the levels of social interactions. These findings support that populations from the South American Southern cone probably achieved the conditional herd immunity threshold to contain the spread of regional SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) in Bangladesh: Systematic Review of Existing Literature and Transmission Modelling of Seroprevalence Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-290
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Chan ◽  
Yue Wu ◽  
James Wood ◽  
Mohammad Muhit ◽  
Mohammed K. Mahmood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Controlled Vocabulary ◽  
Congenital Rubella Syndrome ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Childbearing Age ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
The Impact

Background and Objectives: Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable congenital anomalies. Comprehensive country-level data on the burden of CRS in low and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, are scarce. This information is essential for assessing the impact of rubella vaccination programs. We aim to systematically review the literature on the epidemiology of CRS and estimate the burden of CRS in Bangladesh. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of existing literature and transmission modelling of seroprevalence studies to estimate the pre-vaccine period burden of CRS in Bangladesh. OVID Medline (1948 – 23 November 2016) and OVID EMBASE (1974 – 23 November 2016) were searched using a combination of the database-specific controlled vocabulary and free text terms. We used an age-stratified deterministic model to estimate the pre-vaccination burden of CRS in Bangladesh. Findings: Ten articles were identified, published between 2000 and 2014, including seven crosssectional studies, two case series and one analytical case-control study. Rubella seropositivity ranged from 47.0% to 86.0% among all age population. Rubella sero–positivity increased with age. Rubella seropositivity among women of childbearing age was 81.0% overall. The estimated incidence of CRS was 0·99 per 1,000 live births, which corresponds to approximately 3,292 CRS cases annually in Bangladesh. Conclusion: The estimated burden of CRS in Bangladesh during the pre-vaccination period was high. This will provide important baseline information to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of routine rubella immunisation, introduced in 2012 in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of new MDR-TB regimens: study protocol for the TB-PRACTECAL economic evaluation substudy

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036599
Author(s):  
Sedona Sweeney ◽  
Gabriela Gomez ◽  
Nichola Kitson ◽  
Animesh Sinha ◽  
Natalia Yatskevich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Current Treatment ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
London School ◽  
Main Trial ◽  
Ethical Approval ◽  
Mdr Tb ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionCurrent treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are long, poorly tolerated and have poor outcomes. Furthermore, the costs of treating MDR-TB are much greater than those for treating drug-susceptible TB, both for health service and patient-incurred costs. Urgent action is needed to identify short, effective, tolerable and cheaper treatments for people with both quinolone-susceptible and quinolone-resistant MDR-TB. We present the protocol for an economic evaluation (PRACTECAL-EE substudy) alongside an ongoing clinical trial (TB-PRACTECAL) aiming to assess the costs to patients and providers of new regimens, as well as their cost-effectiveness and impact on participant poverty levels. This substudy is based on data from the three countries participating in the main trial.Methods and analysisPrimary cost data will be collected from the provider and patient perspectives, following economic best practice. We will estimate the probability that new MDR-TB regimens containing bedaquiline, pretomanid and linezolid are cost-effective from a societal perspective as compared with the standard of care for MDR-TB patients in Uzbekistan, South Africa and Belarus. Analysis uses a Markov model populated with primary cost and outcome data collected at each study site. We will also estimate the impact of new regimens on prevalence of catastrophic patient costs due to TB.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been obtained from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Médecins Sans Frontières. Local ethical approval will be sought in each study site. The results of the economic evaluation will be shared with the country health authorities and published in a peer-reviewed journal.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04207112); Pre-results.

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7491
Author(s):  
Yi-Tui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

scholarly journals Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection at the University of Barcelona during the Third COVID-19 Pandemic Wave in Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6526
Author(s):  
Sebastián Videla ◽  
Aurema Otero ◽  
Sara Martí ◽  
M. Ángeles Domínguez ◽  
Nuria Fabrellas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Venous Blood ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Igg Antibody ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Total Prevalence ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic started in December 2019 and still is a major global health challenge. Lockdown measures and social distancing sparked a global shift towards online learning, which deeply impacted universities’ daily life, and the University of Barcelona (UB) was not an exception. Accordingly, we aimed to determine the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at the UB. To that end, we performed a cross-sectional study on a sample of 2784 UB members (n = 52,529). Participants answered a brief, ad hoc, online epidemiological questionnaire and provided a nasal swab for reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 analysis and a venous blood sample for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody assay. Total prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection (positive RT-PCR or positive IgG) was 14.9% (95%CI 13.3 to 17.0%). Forty-four participants (1.6%, 95%CI: 1.2–2.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR. IgG against SARS-CoV-2 was observed in 12.8% (95%CI: 11.6–14.1%) of participants. Overall, while waiting for population vaccination and/or increased herd immunity, we should concentrate on identifying and isolating new cases and their contacts.

scholarly journals Flattening the Curve of COVID-19 Vaccine Rejection—An International Overview

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Wojciech Feleszko ◽  
Piotr Lewulis ◽  
Adam Czarnecki ◽  
Paweł Waszkiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
General Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
National Surveys ◽  
Legislative Power ◽  
Preventive Vaccination ◽  
Very High ◽  
Socioeconomic Benefits

Background: If globally implemented, a safe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination program will have broad clinical and socioeconomic benefits. However, individuals who anticipate that the coronavirus vaccine will bring life back to normality may be disappointed, due to the emerging antivaccination attitude within the general population. Methods: We surveyed a sample of adult Polish citizens (n = 1066), and compared it with the data on international COVID-19 vaccine reluctance. Results: In 20 national surveys, the vaccine averseness for the anticipated COVID-19 vaccine varied from meager (2–6% China) to very high (43%, Czech Republic, and 44%, Turkey) and in most countries was much higher than regular vaccination reluctance, which varies between 3% (Egypt) and 55% (Russia). Conclusions: These results suggest that a 67% herd immunity may be possible only if mandatory preventive vaccination programs start early and are combined with coordinated education efforts supported by legislative power and social campaigns.

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