Flattening the Curve of COVID-19 Vaccine Rejection—An International Overview

Background: If globally implemented, a safe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination program will have broad clinical and socioeconomic benefits. However, individuals who anticipate that the coronavirus vaccine will bring life back to normality may be disappointed, due to the emerging antivaccination attitude within the general population. Methods: We surveyed a sample of adult Polish citizens (n = 1066), and compared it with the data on international COVID-19 vaccine reluctance. Results: In 20 national surveys, the vaccine averseness for the anticipated COVID-19 vaccine varied from meager (2–6% China) to very high (43%, Czech Republic, and 44%, Turkey) and in most countries was much higher than regular vaccination reluctance, which varies between 3% (Egypt) and 55% (Russia). Conclusions: These results suggest that a 67% herd immunity may be possible only if mandatory preventive vaccination programs start early and are combined with coordinated education efforts supported by legislative power and social campaigns.

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RISK FACTORS AND PROTECTION FACTORS FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AND VACCINATION AS A POSSIBLE MEANS OF CONTROLLING THE EPIDEMIC

International scientific journal Internauka ◽

10.25313/2520-2057-2020-20-6718 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Oksana Romaniv ◽

◽

Bohdan Klyapchuk ◽

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Economic Integration ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Special Method ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

Regional Dynamics ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact

A study of the impact of especially contextual on COVID-19 factors of the epidemic (geopolitical, climatic, socio-economic integration, social, including religious, demographic and others) was conducted. The regional dynamics of the epidemic in the Scandinavian countries was analyzed. The spatio-temporal changes of the epidemic indicators in the conditions of loyalty to risk factors (Sweden) and in the conditions of controlled risks (in other countries of the Scandinavian region) were revealed. The current research of scientists on the formation of herd immunity in the population with and without vaccination programs was generalized. The article evaluated the quality of the vaccination program in Ukraine. The threshold indicator "herd immunity" and the number of months to achieve herd immunity in Ukraine without vaccination were calculated according to a special method.

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Participation Rate of Employees of RS X In The Covid-19 Vaccination Program to Break The Chain The Spread of Covid-19

Muhammadiyah International Public Health and Medicine Proceeding ◽

10.53947/miphmp.v1i1.47 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 205-210

Author(s):

Kristianto Kristianto

Keyword(s):

Side Effects ◽

Health Workers ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Participation Rate ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

Negative Context ◽

Religious Reasons ◽

Motivation To Participate

The COVID-19 vaccination aims to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, reduce morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, achieve herd immunity, and protect the community from COVID-19 to remain socially and economically productive. The role of social media in the era of digital technology can bring positive things as well as negative things, in a positive context there are invitations in the form of motivation to participate in vaccination programs. Meanwhile, in a negative context, the COVID-19 vaccination has become a cornering or scary hoax. However, this news cannot be verified. However, this news greatly influences a person's decision to participate or not in the vaccination program in addition to doubts about the safety of vaccines, doubts about the effectiveness of vaccines, distrust of vaccines, fears of side effects such as fever and pain, and religious reasons. This study will explain the level of participation of workers who work in Hospital X in receiving a prioritized vaccination program for health workers. The research method used is descriptive, where data is collected in the period from January 29, 2021, to May 10, 2021. The vaccination program which is an alternative to breaking the chain of the spread of COVID-19 is welcomed by its implementation in Hospital X with the participation rate of the results. reached 92%. The remaining 8% were not vaccinated because they did not receive a recommendation from a doctor or refused the vaccine because they were worried about the side effects.

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Understanding COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Pakistan: The paradigm of Confidence, Convenience and Complacency; A Cross-sectional study.

10.1101/2021.07.12.21260409 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Naveen Siddique Sheikh ◽

Mumtaz Touseef ◽

Riddah Sultan ◽

Kanwal Hassan Cheema ◽

Sidra Shafiq Cheema ◽

...

Keyword(s):

General Population ◽

Healthcare Workers ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Population Data ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Vaccine Uptake ◽

Vaccine Hesitancy ◽

Sectional Study ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Vaccination Programs

Background and objectives: Vaccine hesitancy is a big obstacle for vaccination programs, as is anticipated for the COVID-19 vaccination program, resulting in low uptake of vaccines thereby hindering the process of reaching herd immunity. Bearing this in mind the current study was aimed to explore the determinants of vaccine hesitancy amongst the Pakistani population. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out from the 23rd-31st January 2021. The conceptual framework of the study was based on the 3Cs (Confidence, Convenience, Complacency) model. Google-forms-based questionnaire was disseminated amongst the general population. Data collected were entered into SPSS version 26 and analyzed. Results: Of the 421 participants, 68.4% were females. Non-healthcare workers were 55.8% of respondents. Vaccine hesitant individuals, 26.13% reported they were very unlikely to get vaccinated. Vaccine was not safe as it came out too fast was agreed upon by 12.6% individuals, 50.6% were worried about experiencing side-effects, 18% believed vaccine will not offer protection and 5.9% believed vaccine would cause death. Low Practice of SOP in non-Healthcare workers was the strongest contributor to vaccine hesitancy (OR: 5.338, p=0.040, 95% CI: 1.082-26.330) followed by High complacency (p=0.026) and Moderate Complacency (OR: 0.212, p=0.007, 95% CI: 0.069-0.654) towards COVID-19 vaccination. In Healthcare workers the strongest contributor to vaccine hesitancy was having a Moderate Confidence (OR: 0.323, p=0.042, 95% CI: 0.109-0.958) in the vaccine followed by Moderate Convenience (OR: 0.304, p=0.049, 95% CI: 0.093-0.993) for vaccination Conclusion: Campaigning and communication strategies to reaffirm confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine and educating the general population about the vaccine could lead to increased perception of vaccine safety and effectiveness thereby restoring confidence in vaccine and decreasing vaccine hesitancy. Likewise, working to increase vaccine convenience and decreasing complacency towards the COVID-19 vaccine would translate into high vaccine uptake.

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COVID-19 Vaccination Program in China: a Subnational Descriptive Analysis on Target Population Size and Current Progress

10.21203/rs.3.rs-624719/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wen Zheng ◽

Xuemei Yan ◽

Zeyao Zhao ◽

Juan Yang ◽

Hongjie Yu

Keyword(s):

Population Size ◽

Local Governments ◽

Vaccine Coverage ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Target Population ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

Provincial Level ◽

Long Run

Abstract Introduction: China is facing substantial risks of imported COVID-19 cases and a domestic resurgence in the long run, and COVID-19 vaccination is expected to be the long-lasting solution to end the pandemic. We aim to estimate the size of the target population for COVID-19 vaccination at the provincial level and summarize the current progress of vaccination programs, which could support local governments in the timely determination and adjustment of vaccination policies and promotional measures.Methods: By extracting provincial-stratified data from publicly available sources, we estimated the size of priority target groups for vaccination programs and further characterized the ongoing COVID-19 vaccination program at the provincial level, including the total doses administered, the coverage rate, and the vaccination capacity needed to achieve the target coverage of 70%.Results: The size of the target population shows large differences among provinces, ranging from 3.5 million to 115.2 million. As of June 10, the speed of vaccine roll-out differs remarkably as well, with the highest coverage occurring in Beijing and Shanghai, where 69.8% and 62.3% of the population is fully vaccinated, respectively. However, in 19 of 31 provinces, less than 40% of the population was administered at least one dose, in 9 of which the proportion was even less than 30%. Compared to the routine vaccination capacity before the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 vaccination capacity has greatly improved. Nevertheless, the current vaccination capacity is far lower than the target of 70% coverage by the end of 2021 or by mid-2022 in approximately 5%-20% of provinces, particularly the Guizhou, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Fujian and Hebei provinces.Conclusions: Large disparities exist in the target population size and vaccination progress across provinces in China. Vaccine coverage is far from meeting the herd immunity threshold, and the vaccination service capacity needs to be further improved.

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Herd immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccination programs to suppress epidemics caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild type and variants in China

10.1101/2021.07.23.21261013 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hengcong Liu ◽

Juanjuan Zhang ◽

Jun Cai ◽

Xiaowei Deng ◽

Cheng Peng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vaccine Efficacy ◽

Disease Burden ◽

Natural Infection ◽

Severe Disease ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Data Driven ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Wild Type ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

And Control

To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission; over 3.6 billion vaccine doses have been administered as of July 2021. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs, especially as more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to emerge. To address this question, we developed a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for Shanghai, China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. We found that extending the vaccination program to individuals aged 3-17 years plays a key role to reach herd immunity for the original SARS-CoV-2 lineages. With a vaccine efficacy 74% against infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require coverages of 93% or higher. Herd immunity for new variants, such as Alpha or Delta, can only be achieved with more efficacious vaccines and coverages above 80-90%. A continuation of the current pace of vaccination in China would reach 72% coverage by September 2021; although this program would fail to reach herd immunity it would reduce deaths by 95-100% in case of an outbreak. Efforts should be taken to increase population's confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to guarantee highly efficacious vaccines against more transmissible variants of concern.

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Optimal Control Problem of Vacination for The Spread of Measles Diseases Model

Jurnal Riset dan Aplikasi Matematika (JRAM) ◽

10.26740/jram.v2n2.p76-83 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 76

Author(s):

Dani Suandi

Keyword(s):

Optimal Control ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Equation System ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Control Analysis ◽

Differential Equation System ◽

Third Order ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

The Cost ◽

Very High

Measles is a disease in humans that is very contagious. Before the vaccine was known, the incidence of measles was very high, even the measles mortality rate reached 2.6 million every year. With the introduction of vaccines, the mortality rate in 2000-2016 can be reduced to 20.4 million deaths. Therefore, vaccination programs are very useful in reducing the incidence of measles. Unfortunately, we cannot know the optimal conditions for administering vaccines. The study of optimal control analysis of vaccination is needed in optimizing the prevention of the spread of measles. In this paper, a mathematical model which is a third-order differential equation system is constructed based on characteristic information on measles. The existence and locally stability of the equilibrium point are analyzed here. In addition, optimal control of the vaccination program also occurred. The results of our analysis suggest that the incidence of measles can decrease as the effectiveness of vaccination increases. But the effectiveness of vaccination is directly proportional to the costs incurred. If the cost incurred for the vaccination program more significant, the incidence of measles will decrease.

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Estimating asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan: a mathematical modeling study

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-06078-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Xi Huo ◽

Jing Chen ◽

Shigui Ruan

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Large Scale ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Antibody Prevalence ◽

Screening Process ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

Prevalence Level ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan started in December 2019 and was under control by the end of March 2020 with a total of 50,006 confirmed cases by the implementation of a series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including unprecedented lockdown of the city. This study analyzes the complete outbreak data from Wuhan, assesses the impact of these public health interventions, and estimates the asymptomatic, undetected and total cases for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Methods By taking different stages of the outbreak into account, we developed a time-dependent compartmental model to describe the dynamics of disease transmission and case detection and reporting. Model coefficients were parameterized by using the reported cases and following key events and escalated control strategies. Then the model was used to calibrate the complete outbreak data by using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Finally we used the model to estimate asymptomatic and undetected cases and approximate the overall antibody prevalence level. Results We found that the transmission rate between Jan 24 and Feb 1, 2020, was twice as large as that before the lockdown on Jan 23 and 67.6% (95% CI [0.584,0.759]) of detectable infections occurred during this period. Based on the reported estimates that around 20% of infections were asymptomatic and their transmission ability was about 70% of symptomatic ones, we estimated that there were about 14,448 asymptomatic and undetected cases (95% CI [12,364,23,254]), which yields an estimate of a total of 64,454 infected cases (95% CI [62,370,73,260]), and the overall antibody prevalence level in the population of Wuhan was 0.745% (95% CI [0.693%,0.814%]) by March 31, 2020. Conclusions We conclude that the control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan was achieved via the enforcement of a combination of multiple NPIs: the lockdown on Jan 23, the stay-at-home order on Feb 2, the massive isolation of all symptomatic individuals via newly constructed special shelter hospitals on Feb 6, and the large scale screening process on Feb 18. Our results indicate that the population in Wuhan is far away from establishing herd immunity and provide insights for other affected countries and regions in designing control strategies and planing vaccination programs.

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Implementing a Successful Hepatitis B Vaccination Program

Infection Control ◽

10.1017/s0195941700063153 ◽

1985 ◽

Vol 6 (8) ◽

pp. 306-309 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Linda J. Hanacik ◽

Timothy R. Franson ◽

Jill D. Gollup ◽

Michael W. Rytel

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Hepatitis B ◽

Administrative Support ◽

Health Benefit ◽

Vaccine Safety ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Hepatitis B Vaccination ◽

Vaccination Programs ◽

B Virus ◽

Key Steps

AbstractHealth care personnel with frequent blood contact are at high risk for being exposed to and developing hepatitis B infection. Exposure to unidentified infectious patients may lead to personnel inadvertently foregoing appropriate, passive immunoprophylaxis. For these reasons, our hospital elected to conduct an aggressive program to administer hepatitis B vaccine to all employees at high risk for exposure to hepatitis B virus, thus protecting such employees from inadvertent occupational exposure. Administrators agreed to offer the vaccine as a free employee health benefit. “High-risk” employees attended mandatory inservice presentations covering hepatitis B disease, vaccine safety and efficacy, and related concerns. High-risk individuals were required to either receive vaccine or sign “informed refusal” forms. The vaccine clinic was organized to accommodate employee work schedules. Of high-risk employees eligible for vaccination, 90% completed a three-dose vaccine course. Extensive inservice education, financial and administrative support, and careful advance planning are all crucial in achieving high compliance with vaccination programs. A description of key steps in designing a successful vaccination program is outlined.

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A cost-effectiveness analysis of adding a human papillomavirus vaccine to the Australian National Cervical Cancer Screening Program

Sexual Health ◽

10.1071/sh07043 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 165 ◽

Cited By ~ 77

Author(s):

Shalini Kulasingam ◽

Luke Connelly ◽

Elizabeth Conway ◽

Jane S. Hocking ◽

Evan Myers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cervical Cancer ◽

Human Papillomavirus ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Hpv Vaccine ◽

Screening Program ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Vaccination Program ◽

Catch Up ◽

The Cost ◽

Current Screening

Background: The cost-effectiveness of adding a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine to the Australian National Cervical Screening Program compared to screening alone was examined. Methods: A Markov model of the natural history of HPV infection that incorporates screening and vaccination was developed. A vaccine that prevents 100% of HPV 16/18-associated disease, with a lifetime duration of efficacy and 80% coverage offered through a school program to girls aged 12 years, in conjunction with current screening was compared with screening alone using cost (in Australian dollars) per life-year (LY) saved and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved. Sensitivity analyses included determining the cost-effectiveness of offering a catch-up vaccination program to 14–26-year-olds and accounting for the benefits of herd immunity. Results: Vaccination with screening compared with screening alone was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $51 103 per LY and $18 735 per QALY, assuming a cost per vaccine dose of $115. Results were sensitive to assumptions about the duration of vaccine efficacy, including the need for a booster ($68 158 per LY and $24 988 per QALY) to produce lifetime immunity. Accounting for herd immunity resulted in a more attractive ICER ($36 343 per LY and $13 316 per QALY) for girls only. The cost per LY of vaccinating boys and girls was $92 052 and the cost per QALY was $33 644. The cost per LY of implementing a catch-up vaccination program ranged from $45 652 ($16 727 per QALY) for extending vaccination to 14-year-olds to $78 702 ($34 536 per QALY) for 26-year-olds. Conclusions: These results suggest that adding an HPV vaccine to Australia’s current screening regimen is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce cervical cancer and the clinical interventions that are currently associated with its prevention via screening alone.

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Inflammatory bowel disease has a negative impact on patients reproductive behaviour: the first multicentre survey in the Czech Republic

Gastroenterologie a hepatologie ◽

10.48095/ccgh202112 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 75 (1) ◽

pp. 12-19

Author(s):

Dana Ďuricová ◽

Zuzana Krátka ◽

Martin Bortlík ◽

Lenka Slabá ◽

Kristýna Strnadová ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Inflammatory Bowel Disease ◽

Czech Republic ◽

General Population ◽

Bowel Disease ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Fertility Rate ◽

Sexual Life ◽

The Czech Republic ◽

Live Births ◽

Inflammatory Bowel

Background: Several previous studies reported the negative impact of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) on reproductive plans and fertility rate. The aim of our study was to investigate, for the first time, reproductive attitudes and fertility rate among Czech patients with IBD. Methods: Between March and August 2019, consecutive patients with IBD from 22 centres across the Czech Republic responded anonymously to a predefined questionnaire focused on the patients’ demographics, details of IBD and treatment, gynaecological/urological history, reproductive issues and patients’ knowledge on this topic. Results: The questionnaire was filled in by 798 patients (526 women; median age 34 years, 66% with Crohn’s disease). Of these, 58% of the females and 47.1% of the males already had ≥ 1 child (median 2 children). Women with IBD were significantly more worried about infertility (55.5% versus 22.4%), had more limitations in their sexual life (53.2% vs. 26.8%) and more frequently changed their earlier reproductive plans (27.6% versus 11.0%) than the males (p < 0.0001). The total fertility rate in female IBD patients was lower compared to the general population with 1.004 live births/IBD woman versus 1.69 live births/woman in the Czech population. The pattern of decreased fertility was observed in all age-specific categories. Of the childless patients, 14% of the women and 18.1% of the men were voluntarily childless. Approximately one-half of them indicated their IBD to be the primary cause. Conclusions: IBD seems to have a negative impact on patients’ reproductive plans and attitudes. The fertility rate in Czech IBD female patients was decreased compared to the general population in this study.

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