Benefits and Costs of Ride-Sharing in Shared Automated Vehicles across Austin, Texas: Opportunities for Congestion Pricing

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 548-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna Murthy Gurumurthy ◽  
Kara M. Kockelman ◽  
Michele D. Simoni
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Road Pricing ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Fleet Size ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Ride Sharing ◽  
Driver Error ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Privacy Issues

A self-driving, fully automated, or “autonomous” vehicle (AV) revolution is imminent, with the potential to eliminate driver costs and driver error, while ushering in an era of shared mobility. Dynamic ride-sharing (DRS), which refers to sharing rides with strangers en route, is growing, with top transportation network companies providing such services. This work uses an agent-based simulation tool called MATSim to simulate travel patterns in Austin, Texas in the presence of personal AVs, and shared AVs (SAVs), with DRS and advanced road-pricing policies in place. Fleet size, pricing, and fare level impacts are analyzed in depth to provide insight into how SAVs may best be introduced to a city or region. Results indicate that the cost-effectiveness of traveling with strangers overcomes inconvenience and privacy issues at moderate-to-low fare levels, with high fares being more detrimental than the base case. A moderately sized Austin, Texas fleet (one SAV for every 25 people) serves nearly 30% of all trips made during the day. The average vehicle occupancy of this fleet was around 1.48 [after including the 12.7% of SAV vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) empty/without passengers], with a 4.5% increase in VMT. This same fleet performs better when road-pricing is enforced in the peak periods (4 h a day), moderating VMT by 2%, increasing SAV demand and in turn fleet-manager revenue. SAVs are able to earn around $100 per SAV per day even after paying tolls, but only at low-fare levels.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of Dengue Vaccination in Puerto Rico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido España ◽  
Andrew J. Leidner ◽  
Stephen Waterman ◽  
T. Alex Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
False Positive Test ◽  
The Cost

ABSTRACTAn effective and widely used vaccine could reduce the burden of dengue virus (DENV) around the world. DENV is endemic in Puerto Rico, where the dengue vaccine CYD-TDV is currently under consideration as a control measure. CYD-TDV has demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials in vaccinees who had prior dengue infection. However, in vaccinees who had no prior dengue infection, the vaccine had a modestly elevated risk of hospitalization and severe disease. The WHO therefore recommended a strategy of pre-vaccination screening and vaccination of seropositive persons. To estimate the cost-effectiveness and benefits of this intervention (i.e., screening and vaccination of seropositive persons) in Puerto Rico, we simulated 10 years of the intervention in 9-year-olds using an agent-based model. Across the entire population, we found that 5.5% (4.6%-6.3%) of dengue hospitalizations could be averted. However, we also found that 1.6 (1.3 - 2.1) additional hospitalizations could occur for every 1,000 DENV-naïve children who were vaccinated following a false-positive test results for prior exposure. The ratio of the averted hospitalizations among all vaccinees to additional hospitalizations among DENV-naïve vaccinees was estimated to be 19 (13-24). At a base case cost of vaccination of 382 USD, we found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 122,000 USD per QALY gained. Our estimates can provide information for considerations to introduce the CYD-TDV vaccine in Puerto Rico.

scholarly journals Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Blaxill ◽  
Toby Rogers ◽  
Cynthia Nevison
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Total Base ◽  
Cost Categories ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies.

scholarly journals A Novel Crowdsourcing Model for Micro-Mobility Ride-Sharing Systems

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4636
Author(s):  
Mohammed Elhenawy ◽  
Mostafizur R. Komol ◽  
Mahmoud Masoud ◽  
Shiqiang Liu ◽  
Huthaifa I. Ashqar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
User Needs ◽  
Computational Results ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Ride Sharing ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Micro Mobility

Substantial research is required to ensure that micro-mobility ride sharing provides a better fulfilment of user needs. This study proposes a novel crowdsourcing model for the ride-sharing system where light vehicles such as scooters and bikes are crowdsourced. The proposed model is expected to solve the problem of charging and maintaining a large number of light vehicles where these efforts will be the responsibility of the crowd of suppliers. The proposed model consists of three entities: suppliers, customers, and a management party responsible for receiving, renting, booking, and demand matching with offered resources. It can allow suppliers to define the location of their private e-scooters/e-bikes and the period of time they are available for rent. Using a dataset of over 9 million e-scooter trips in Austin, Texas, we ran an agent-based simulation six times using three maximum battery ranges (i.e., 35, 45, and 60 km) and different numbers of e-scooters (e.g., 50 and 100) at each origin. Computational results show that the proposed model is promising and might be advantageous to shift the charging and maintenance efforts to a crowd of suppliers.

scholarly journals Determining an Optimal Fleet Size for a Reliable Shared Automated Vehicle Ride-Sharing Service

2019 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 878-883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Golan Ben-Dor ◽  
Eran Ben-Elia ◽  
Itzhak Benenson
Keyword(s):  
Fleet Size ◽  
Automated Vehicle ◽  
Ride Sharing

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of a new treatment for MS (natalizumab) compared with current standard practice in Sweden

2008 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 679-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Kobelt ◽  
J Berg ◽  
P Lindgren ◽  
B Jonsson ◽  
L Stawiarz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Societal Perspective ◽  
Functional Disability ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Current Standard ◽  
Disease Modifying Drugs ◽  
New Treatment ◽  
The Cost

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a new treatment (natalizumab) for multiple sclerosis (MS) compared with current standard therapy with disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) in Sweden. Methods A Markov model was constructed to illustrate disease progression based on functional disability (the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)). The effectiveness of natalizumab was based on a 2-year clinical trial in 942 patients (AFFIRM). The effectiveness of current DMDs was estimated from a matched sample of 512 patients in the Stockholm MS registry. Patients withdrawing from treatment were assumed to follow the disease course of 824 patients with relapsing–remitting disease at onset in the Ontario natural history cohort. Costs and utilities are based on a recent observational study in 1339 patients. All data sets were available at the patient level. Main results are presented from the societal perspective, over a 20-year time frame, in 2005 Euros (€1 = 9.25 SEK). Results In the base case, treatment with natalizumab was less expensive and more effective than treatment with current DMDs. When only healthcare costs were considered, the cost per quality-adjusted life year gained with natalizumab was €38 145. Results are sensitive only to the time horizon of the analysis and assumptions about effectiveness of natalizumab beyond the trial. Conclusions This cost-effectiveness analysis used registry data, cohort and observational studies to extrapolate the efficacy findings of natalizumab from the AFFIRM clinical trial to measure effectiveness in clinical practice. The analysis results suggest that for the population considered, natalizumab provides an additional health benefit at a similar cost to current DMDs from a societal perspective.

scholarly journals Cytomegalovirus Screening in Pregnancy: A Cost-Effectiveness and Threshold Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (07) ◽  
pp. 678-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Albright ◽  
Erika F. Werner ◽  
Brenna L. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Behavioral Intervention ◽  
Universal Screening ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Intervention Effectiveness ◽  
Behavioral Counseling ◽  
The Cost ◽  
In Pregnancy

Objective To determine threshold cytomegalovirus (CMV) infectious rates and treatment effectiveness to make universal prenatal CMV screening cost-effective. Study Design Decision analysis comparing cost-effectiveness of two strategies for the prevention and treatment of congenital CMV: universal prenatal serum screening and routine, risk-based screening. The base case assumptions were a probability of primary CMV of 1% in seronegative women, hyperimmune globulin (HIG) effectiveness of 0%, and behavioral intervention effectiveness of 85%. Screen-positive women received monthly HIG and screen-negative women received behavioral counseling to decrease CMV seroconversion. The primary outcome was the cost per maternal quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained with a willingness to pay of $100,000 per QALY. Results In the base case, universal screening is cost-effective, costing $84,773 per maternal QALY gained. In sensitivity analyses, universal screening is cost-effective only at a primary CMV incidence of more than 0.89% and behavioral intervention effectiveness of more than 75%. If HIG is 30% effective, primary CMV incidence can be 0.82% for universal screening to be cost-effective. Conclusion The cost-effectiveness of universal maternal screening for CMV is highly dependent on the incidence of primary CMV in pregnancy. If efficacious, HIG and behavioral counseling allow universal screening to be cost-effective at lower primary CMV rates.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of Triple Therapy with Telaprevir for Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Patients in Germany

10.36469/9870 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jona T. Stahmeyer ◽  
Svenja Schauer ◽  
Siegbert Rossol ◽  
Hans Heinrich Wedemeyer ◽  
Daniel Wirth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Triple Therapy ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Previously Treated Patients ◽  
Previously Treated ◽  
The Cost

Background: About 400,000-500,000 people are infected with hepatitis C in Germany. Long-term consequences are the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The introduction of first generation protease inhibitors has significantly improved the treatment of hepatitis C genotype 1 patients. The aim of the study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of triple therapy with telaprevir in Germany. Methods: We used a Markov model on disease progression and natural history to assess the cost-effectiveness of triple therapy with telaprevir compared to standard treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Model structure and inputs were discussed with clinical experts. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to verify the robustness of results. Results: The base-case analyses shows that triple therapy results in higher costs (untreated patients: €48,446 vs. €30,691; previously treated patients: €63,228 vs. €48,603) and better outcomes (untreated patients: 16.85 qualily of life years [QALYs] vs. 15.97 QALYs; previously treated patients: 14.16 QALYs vs. 12.89 QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €20,131 per QALY and €30,567 per life year gained (LYG) for previously untreated patients. ICER in treatment experienced patients was €7,664 per QALY for relapse patients, €12,506 per QALY for partial responders and €28,429 per QALY for null responders. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Although triple therapy with telaprevir leads to additional costs, there is a high probability of being cost-effective for different thresholds. This health economic analysis makes an important contribution to current debates on cost savings and efficient resource allocation in the German healthcare sector.

scholarly journals Rerepresenting Autonomated Vehicles in a Macroscopic Transportation Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Árpád Török ◽  
Zsolt Szalay ◽  
Gábor Uti ◽  
Bence Verebélyi
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
System Level ◽  
Automated Vehicles ◽  
Transportation Model ◽  
External Variable ◽  
Constant Growth ◽  
Definition Phase ◽  
Modelling Process ◽  
Relevant Factors

The main goal of this article is to determine a comprehensive and well applicable model architecture, which is adequate to estimate the system level advantages with regard to automated transportation and which is appropriate to determine possible costs and losses with regard to the approach of such transport modes. In the study the Budapest Transportation Model is applied. Taking autonomous vehicle penetration into account as an external variable, in the analysis a constant growth is assumed in the penetration of automated vehicles. This article has taken the most relevant factors of transportation network into account with regard to automated cars. It is also important to mention that the paper presents the most important modelling phases, where automated cars can be taken into account during the macroscopic modelling process. In the first step of the process during the network definition phase it is possible to consider the effect of automated vehicles on the transport system (e.g. separated routes). The next phase where the effect of automated vehicles should be taken into consideration is the mode choice step (e.g. different demand segments). And finally traffic assignment step, where the effect of automated vehicles can be represented. The easiest way for this is the modification of passenger car units through the parameter of assigned traffic per capacity ratio.

scholarly journals Lenvatinib and sorafenib for differentiated thyroid cancer after radioactive iodine: a systematic review and economic evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Fleeman ◽  
Rachel Houten ◽  
Adrian Bagust ◽  
Marty Richardson ◽  
Sophie Beale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Differentiated Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Radioactive Iodine ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Base Case ◽  
The Cost

Background Thyroid cancer is a rare cancer, accounting for only 1% of all malignancies in England and Wales. Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) accounts for ≈94% of all thyroid cancers. Patients with DTC often require treatment with radioactive iodine. Treatment for DTC that is refractory to radioactive iodine [radioactive iodine-refractory DTC (RR-DTC)] is often limited to best supportive care (BSC). Objectives We aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib (Lenvima®; Eisai Ltd, Hertfordshire, UK) and sorafenib (Nexar®; Bayer HealthCare, Leverkusen, Germany) for the treatment of patients with RR-DTC. Data sources EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed, The Cochrane Library and EconLit were searched (date range 1999 to 10 January 2017; searched on 10 January 2017). The bibliographies of retrieved citations were also examined. Review methods We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews, prospective observational studies and economic evaluations of lenvatinib or sorafenib. In the absence of relevant economic evaluations, we constructed a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib and sorafenib with that of BSC. Results Two RCTs were identified: SELECT (Study of [E7080] LEnvatinib in 131I-refractory differentiated Cancer of the Thyroid) and DECISION (StuDy of sorafEnib in loCally advanced or metastatIc patientS with radioactive Iodine-refractory thyrOid caNcer). Lenvatinib and sorafenib were both reported to improve median progression-free survival (PFS) compared with placebo: 18.3 months (lenvatinib) vs. 3.6 months (placebo) and 10.8 months (sorafenib) vs. 5.8 months (placebo). Patient crossover was high (≥ 75%) in both trials, confounding estimates of overall survival (OS). Using OS data adjusted for crossover, trial authors reported a statistically significant improvement in OS for patients treated with lenvatinib compared with those given placebo (SELECT) but not for patients treated with sorafenib compared with those given placebo (DECISION). Both lenvatinib and sorafenib increased the incidence of adverse events (AEs), and dose reductions were required (for > 60% of patients). The results from nine prospective observational studies and 13 systematic reviews of lenvatinib or sorafenib were broadly comparable to those from the RCTs. Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) data were collected only in DECISION. We considered the feasibility of comparing lenvatinib with sorafenib via an indirect comparison but concluded that this would not be appropriate because of differences in trial and participant characteristics, risk profiles of the participants in the placebo arms and because the proportional hazard assumption was violated for five of the six survival outcomes available from the trials. In the base-case economic analysis, using list prices only, the cost-effectiveness comparison of lenvatinib versus BSC yields an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of £65,872, and the comparison of sorafenib versus BSC yields an ICER of £85,644 per QALY gained. The deterministic sensitivity analyses show that none of the variations lowered the base-case ICERs to < £50,000 per QALY gained. Limitations We consider that it is not possible to compare the clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib and sorafenib. Conclusions Compared with placebo/BSC, treatment with lenvatinib or sorafenib results in an improvement in PFS, objective tumour response rate and possibly OS, but dose modifications were required to treat AEs. Both treatments exhibit estimated ICERs of > £50,000 per QALY gained. Further research should include examination of the effects of lenvatinib, sorafenib and BSC (including HRQoL) for both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, and the positioning of treatments in the treatment pathway. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017055516. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Abstract 200: Cost-Effectiveness of Newer Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan L Limone ◽  
William L Baker ◽  
Craig I Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Stroke Prevention ◽  
Indirect Comparison ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The United States ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Treatment Comparison ◽  
Newer Anticoagulants ◽  
The Cost

Background: A number of new anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (SPAF) have gained regulatory approval or are in late-stage development. We sought to conduct a systematic review of economic models of dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban for SPAF. Methods: We searched the Medline, Embase, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and Health Technology Assessment database along with the Tuft’s Registry through October 10, 2012. Included models assessed the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran (150mg, 110mg, sequential), rivaroxaban or apixaban for SPAF using a Markov model or discrete event simulation and were published in English. Results: Eighteen models were identified. All models utilized a lone randomized trial (or an indirect comparison utilizing a single study for any given direct comparison), and these trials were clinically and methodologically heterogeneous. Dabigatran 150mg was assessed in 9 of models, dabigatran 110mg in 8, sequential dabigatran in 9, rivaroxaban in 4 and apixaban in 4. Adjusted-dose warfarin (either trial-like, real-world prescribing or genotype-dosed) was a potential first-line therapy in 94% of models. Models were conducted from the perspective of the United States (44%), European countries (39%) and Canada (17%). In base-case analyses, patients typically were at moderate-risk of ischemic stroke, initiated anticoagulation between 65 and 73 years of age, and were followed for or near a lifetime. All models reported cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and while 22% of models reported using a societal perspective, no model included costs of lost productivity. Four models reported an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a newer anticoagulant (dabigatran 110mg (n=4)/150mg (n=2); rivaroxaban (n=1)) vs. warfarin above commonly reported willingness-to-pay thresholds. ICERs (in 2012US$) vs. warfarin ranged from $3,547-$86,000 for dabigatran 150mg, $20,713-$150,000 for dabigatran 110mg, $4,084-$21,466 for sequentially-dosed dabigatran and $23,065-$57,470 for rivaroxaban. In addition, apixaban was demonstrated to be an economically dominant strategy compared to aspirin and to be dominant or cost-effective ($11,400-$25,059) vs. warfarin. Based on separate indirect treatment comparison meta-analyses, 3 models compared the cost-effectiveness of these new agents and reported conflicting results. Conclusions: Cost-effectiveness models of newer anticoagulants for SPAF have been extensively published. Models have frequently found newer anticoagulants to be cost-effective, but due to the lack of head-to-head trial comparisons and heterogeneity in clinical characteristic of underlying trials and modeling methods, it is currently unclear which of these newer agents is most cost-effective.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document