Reliability-Based Assessment of Potential Risk for Lane-Changing Maneuvers

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110108
Author(s):  
Yang-Jun Joo ◽  
Ho-Chul Park ◽  
Seung-Young Kho ◽  
Dong-Kyu Kim
Keyword(s):  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Time To Collision ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Reliable Assessment ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Predicted Values

Despite the urgent need for continuous risk assessments during autonomous driving, achieving reliable assessment results is still challenging because of the unpredictable behaviors of adjacent human drivers and the resulting complexity. Such complexity increases particularly during lane changes because several vehicles need to interact with other vehicles. Therefore, this paper proposes a new framework to analyze lane-changing risk on freeways considering the forecastability in adjacent vehicles. Virtual lane-change scenarios are constructed based on historical maneuvers in adjacent vehicles, and the risk of potential lane change is evaluated through the safety evaluation result of the scenario. Adjacent vehicles’ future maneuvers are predicted using a multivariate Bayesian structural time series model, and the forecastability is estimated as the standard error of the predicted values. The failure probability of those lane-changing scenarios is obtained through the first-order reliability method, assuming that failure occurred when any time-to-collision value for adjacent vehicles was less than a threshold at the end of the lane change. This study tested two scenarios with three levels of uncertainty to show the effect of uncertainty on the level of risk. The results showed that the reduced uncertainty allowed a clearer distinction between risky situations. The proposed framework differentiates itself from existing methods by estimating higher risk in an adjacent vehicle’s more significant uncertainties. It is expected that the outcome of this study will be valuable in developing reliable lane-change strategies in autonomous driving.

scholarly journals Goal Estimation of Mandatory Lane Changes Based on Interaction between Drivers

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3289
Author(s):  
Hanwool Woo ◽  
Mizuki Sugimoto ◽  
Hirokazu Madokoro ◽  
Kazuhito Sato ◽  
Yusuke Tamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Field Method ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Driver Assistance ◽  
Driver Assistance Systems ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Dynamic Potential ◽  
Novel Method

In this paper, we propose a novel method to estimate a goal of surround vehicles to perform a lane change at a merging section. Recently, autonomous driving and advance driver-assistance systems are attracting great attention as a solution to substitute human drivers and to decrease accident rates. For example, a warning system to alert a lane change performed by surrounding vehicles to the front space of the host vehicle can be considered. If it is possible to forecast the intention of the interrupting vehicle in advance, the host driver can easily respond to the lane change with sufficient reaction time. This paper assumes a mandatory situation where two lanes are merged. The proposed method assesses the interaction between the lane-changing vehicle and the host vehicle on the mainstream lane. Then, the lane-change goal is estimated based on the interaction under the assumption that the lane-changing driver decides to minimize the collision risk. The proposed method applies the dynamic potential field method, which changes the distribution according to the relative speed and distance between two subject vehicles, to assess the interaction. The performance of goal estimation is evaluated using real traffic data, and it is demonstrated that the estimation can be successfully performed by the proposed method.

scholarly journals Trajectory Planning with Time-Variant Safety Margin for Autonomous Vehicle Lane Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Wu ◽  
Bangjun Qiao ◽  
Chengrui Su
Keyword(s):  
Trajectory Planning ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Simulation System ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Gray Prediction ◽  
Safety Margins

A lane change is one of the most important driving scenarios for autonomous driving vehicles. This paper proposes a safe and comfort-oriented algorithm for an autonomous vehicle to perform lane changes on a straight and level road. A simplified Gray Prediction Model is designed to estimate the driving status of surrounding vehicles, and time-variant safety margins are employed during the trajectory planning to ensure a safe maneuver. The algorithm is able to adapt its lane changing strategy based on traffic situation and passenger demands, and features condition-triggered rerouting to handle unexpected traffic situations. The concept of dynamic safety margins with different settings of parameters gives a customizable feature for the autonomous lane changing control. The effect of the algorithm is verified within a self-developed traffic simulation system.

Characterizing Lane Changes via Digitized Infrastructure and Low-Cost GPS

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (8) ◽  
pp. 298-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishtiak Ahmed ◽  
Alan Karr ◽  
Nagui M. Rouphail ◽  
Gyounghoon Chun ◽  
Shams Tanvir
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Lateral Displacement ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Detection Systems ◽  
Level Information

With the expected increase in the availability of trajectory-level information from connected and autonomous vehicles, issues of lane changing behavior that were difficult to assess with traditional freeway detection systems can now begin to be addressed. This study presents the development and application of a lane change detection algorithm that uses trajectory data from a low-cost GPS-equipped fleet, supplemented with digitized lane markings. The proposed algorithm minimizes the effect of GPS errors by constraining the temporal duration and lateral displacement of a lane change detected using preliminary lane positioning. The algorithm was applied to 637 naturalistic trajectories traversing a long weaving segment and validated through a series of controlled lane change experiments. Analysis of naturalistic trajectory data revealed that ramp-to-freeway trips had the highest number of discretionary lane changes in excess of 1 lane change/vehicle. Overall, excessive lane change rates were highest between the two middle freeway lanes at 0.86 lane changes/vehicle. These results indicate that extreme lane changing behavior may significantly contribute to the peak-hour congestion at the site. The average lateral speed during lane change was 2.7 fps, consistent with the literature, with several freeway–freeway and ramp–ramp trajectories showing speeds up to 7.7 fps. All ramp-to-freeway vehicles executed their first mandatory lane change within 62.5% of the total weaving length, although other weaving lane changes were spread over the entire segment. These findings can be useful for implementing strategies to lessen abrupt and excessive lane changes through better lane pre-positioning.

Eye Glance Behavior during Lane Changes and Straight-Ahead Driving

2005 ◽  
Vol 1937 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik C. B. Olsen ◽  
Suzanne E. Lee ◽  
Walter W. Wierwille
Keyword(s):  
Collision Avoidance ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Development Effort ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Visual Presence ◽  
Safety And Reliability ◽  
Rearview Mirror ◽  
Straight Ahead

Understanding drivers’ eye behavior before lane changing is an important aspect of designing usable, safe lane-change collision-avoidance systems (LCAS) that will fit well with drivers’ expectations. This understanding could lead to improvements for LCAS as well as for a variety of other collision avoidance systems. Findings regarding driver eye glance behaviors are presented in a comparison of lane change maneuvers with straight-ahead (baseline) driving events. Specific eye glance patterns before lane change initiation were observed. When preparing to make a lane change to the left as compared with driving straight ahead, drivers doubled the number of glances toward the rearview mirror and were much more likely to look at other locations associated with moving to the left, including the left mirror and blind spot. On the basis of the eye glance patterns observed and previous results, the following recommendations are made: ( a) visual presence detection indicator displays should be used to provide information about vehicles in the rear adjacent lane any time a vehicle is detected, ( b) a presence indicator should be presented in a visual format, and ( c) the left mirror and rearview mirror locations should be considered for providing lane change information to the driver. The process of acquiring and analyzing eye glance movements is well worth the investment in resources. However, prototype systems must be tested before implementation, and the exact location and format of warning systems warrant a separate research and development effort to ensure safety and reliability.

Modeling Integrated Lane-Changing Behavior

2003 ◽  
Vol 1857 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomer Toledo ◽  
Haris N. Koutsopoulos ◽  
Moshe E. Ben-Akiva
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Simulation Tools ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Safety Studies ◽  
Vehicle Trajectory

The lane-changing model is an important component within microscopic traffic simulation tools. Following the emergence of these tools in recent years, interest in the development of more reliable lane-changing models has increased. Lane-changing behavior is also important in several other applications such as capacity analysis and safety studies. Lane-changing behavior is usually modeled in two steps: ( a) the decision to consider a lane change, and ( b) the decision to execute the lane change. In most models, lane changes are classified as either mandatory (MLC) or discretionary (DLC). MLC are performed when the driver must leave the current lane. DLC are performed to improve driving conditions. Gap acceptance models are used to model the execution of lane changes. The classification of lane changes as either mandatory or discretionary prohibits capturing trade-offs between these considerations. The result is a rigid behavioral structure that does not permit, for example, overtaking when mandatory considerations are active. Using these models within a microsimulator may result in unrealistic traffic flow characteristics. In addition, little empirical work has been done to rigorously estimate the parameters of lane-changing models. An integrated lane-changing model, which allows drivers to jointly consider mandatory and discretionary considerations, is presented. Parameters of the model are estimated with detailed vehicle trajectory data.

Design and implementation of human driving data–based active lane change control for autonomous vehicles

2020 ◽  
Vol 235 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-77
Author(s):  
Heungseok Chae ◽  
Yonghwan Jeong ◽  
Hojun Lee ◽  
Jongcherl Park ◽  
Kyongsu Yi
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Control Algorithm ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Driving Mode ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Safety Indices

This article describes the design, implementation, and evaluation of an active lane change control algorithm for autonomous vehicles with human factor considerations. Lane changes need to be performed considering both driver acceptance and safety with surrounding vehicles. Therefore, autonomous driving systems need to be designed based on an analysis of human driving behavior. In this article, manual driving characteristics are investigated using real-world driving test data. In lane change situations, interactions with surrounding vehicles were mainly investigated. And safety indices were developed with kinematic analysis. A safety indices–based lane change decision and control algorithm has been developed. In order to improve safety, stochastic predictions of both the ego vehicle and surrounding vehicles have been conducted with consideration of sensor noise and model uncertainties. The desired driving mode is decided to cope with all lane changes on highway. To obtain desired reference and constraints, motion planning for lane changes has been designed taking stochastic prediction-based safety indices into account. A stochastic model predictive control with constraints has been adopted to determine vehicle control inputs: the steering angle and the longitudinal acceleration. The proposed active lane change algorithm has been successfully implemented on an autonomous vehicle and evaluated via real-world driving tests. Safe and comfortable lane changes in high-speed driving on highways have been demonstrated using our autonomous test vehicle.

scholarly journals Bifurcation of Lane Change and Control on Highway for Tractor-Semitrailer under Rainy Weather

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Peng ◽  
Zhiwei Guan ◽  
Ronghui Zhang ◽  
Jinsong Dong ◽  
Kening Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Feedback Linearization ◽  
Oscillatory Behavior ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Lane Changes ◽  
Rainy Weather ◽  
Matrix Eigenvalues ◽  
Vehicle Test ◽  
And Control

A new method is proposed for analyzing the nonlinear dynamics and stability in lane changes on highways for tractor-semitrailer under rainy weather. Unlike most of the literature associated with a simulated linear dynamic model for tractor-semitrailers steady steering on dry road, a verified 5DOF mechanical model with nonlinear tire based on vehicle test was used in the lane change simulation on low adhesion coefficient road. According to Jacobian matrix eigenvalues of the vehicle model, bifurcations of steady steering and sinusoidal steering on highways under rainy weather were investigated using a numerical method. Furthermore, based on feedback linearization theory, taking the tractor yaw rate and joint angle as control objects, a feedback linearization controller combined with AFS and DYC was established. The numerical simulation results reveal that Hopf bifurcations are identified in steady and sinusoidal steering conditions, which translate into an oscillatory behavior leading to instability. And simulations of urgent step and single-lane change in high velocity show that the designed controller has good effects on eliminating bifurcations and improving lateral stability of tractor-semitrailer, during lane changing on highway under rainy weather. It is a valuable reference for safety design of tractor-semitrailers to improve the traffic safety with driver-vehicle-road closed-loop system.

Hidden Markov Model of Lane-Changing-Based Car-Following Behavior on Freeways using Naturalistic Driving Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812199938
Author(s):  
Li Zhao ◽  
Laurence Rilett ◽  
Mm Shakiul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
Vehicle Body ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Car Following ◽  
Pilot Model ◽  
Naturalistic Driving

This paper develops a methodology for simultaneously modeling lane-changing and car-following behavior of automated vehicles on freeways. Naturalistic driving data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) program are used. First, a framework to process the SPMD data is proposed using various data analytics techniques including data fusion, data mining, and machine learning. Second, pairs of automated host vehicle and their corresponding front vehicle are identified along with their lane-change and car-following relationship data. Using these data, a lane-changing-based car-following (LCCF) model, which explicitly considers lane-change and car-following behavior simultaneously, is developed. The LCCF model is based on Gaussian-mixture-based hidden Markov model theory and is disaggregated into two processes: LCCF association and LCCF dissociation. These categories are based on the result of the lane change. The overall goal is to predict a driver’s lane-change intention using the LCCF model. Results show that the model can predict the lane-change event in the order of 0.6 to 1.3 s before the moment of the vehicle body across the lane boundary. In addition, the execution times of lane-change maneuvers average between 0.55 and 0.86 s. The LCCF model allows the intention time and execution time of driver’s lane-change behavior to be forecast, which will help to develop better advanced driver assistance systems for vehicle controls with respect to lane-change and car-following warning functions.

scholarly journals Automatic Lane-Changing Decision Based on Single-Step Dynamic Game with Incomplete Information and Collision-Free Path Planning

Actuators ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Hongbo Wang ◽  
Shihan Xu ◽  
Longze Deng
Keyword(s):  
Path Planning ◽  
Dynamic Game ◽  
Single Step ◽  
Bézier Curve ◽  
Vehicle Safety ◽  
Bezier Curve ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Hardware In The Loop ◽  
Power Performance ◽  
Lane Changing

Traffic accidents are often caused by improper lane changes. Although the safety of lane-changing has attracted extensive attention in the vehicle and traffic fields, there are few studies considering the lateral comfort of vehicle users in lane-changing decision-making. Lane-changing decision-making by single-step dynamic game with incomplete information and path planning based on Bézier curve are proposed in this paper to coordinate vehicle lane-changing performance from safety payoff, velocity payoff, and comfort payoff. First, the lane-changing safety distance which is improved by collecting lane-changing data through simulated driving, and lane-changing time obtained by Bézier curve path planning are introduced into the game payoff, so that the selection of the lane-changing start time considers the vehicle safety, power performance and passenger comfort of the lane-changing process. Second, the lane-changing path without collision to the forward vehicle is obtained through the constrained Bézier curve, and the Bézier curve is further constrained to obtain a smoother lane-changing path. The path tracking sliding mode controller of front wheel angle compensation by radical basis function neural network is designed. Finally, the model in the loop simulation and the hardware in the loop experiment are carried out to verify the advantages of the proposed method. The results of three lane-changing conditions designed in the hardware in the loop experiment show that the vehicle safety, power performance, and passenger comfort of the vehicle controlled by the proposed method are better than that of human drivers in discretionary lane change and mandatory lane change scenarios.

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