scholarly journals Group incentives and rational voting

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alastair Smith ◽  
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ◽  
Tom LaGatta

Our model describes competition between groups driven by the choices of self-interested voters within groups. Within a Poisson voting environment, parties observe aggregate support from groups and can allocate prizes or punishments to them. In a tournament style analysis, the model characterizes how contingent allocation of prizes based on relative levels of support affects equilibrium voting behavior. In addition to standard notions of pivotality, voters influence the distribution of prizes across groups. Such prize pivotality supports positive voter turnout even in non-competitive electoral settings. The analysis shows that competition for a prize awarded to the most supportive group is only stable when two groups actively support a party. However, competition among groups to avoid punishment is stable in environments with any number of groups. We conclude by examining implications for endogenous group formation and how politicians structure the allocation of rewards and punishments.

Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen

Local government is the hidden leviathan of American politics: it accounts for nearly a tenth of gross domestic product, it collects nearly as much in taxes as the federal government, and its decisions have an enormous impact on Americans' daily lives. Yet political scientists have few explanations for how people vote in local elections, particularly in the smaller cities, towns, and suburbs where most Americans live. Drawing on a wide variety of data sources and case studies, this book offers the first comprehensive analysis of electoral politics in America's municipalities. Arguing that current explanations of voting behavior are ill suited for most local contests, the book puts forward a new theory that highlights the crucial differences between local, state, and national democracies. Being small in size, limited in power, and largely unbiased in distributing their resources, local governments are “managerial democracies” with a distinct style of electoral politics. Instead of hinging on the partisanship, ideology, and group appeals that define national and state elections, local elections are based on the custodial performance of civic-oriented leaders and on their personal connections to voters with similarly deep community ties. Explaining not only the dynamics of local elections, Oliver's findings also upend many long-held assumptions about community power and local governance, including the importance of voter turnout and the possibilities for grassroots political change.


2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1630-1658
Author(s):  
Deirdre Pfeiffer ◽  
Jake Wegmann ◽  
Alex Schafran

An understudied outcome of foreclosure crises is how their aftershocks affect partisan elections. Two hypotheses are that partisan shifts may occur in neighborhoods with concentrated foreclosures because of (1) declines in turnout among liberal leaning voters or (2) swells of anti-incumbency among all voters. This research explores these hypotheses in Maricopa County, Arizona, by using econometric modeling to uncover associations among neighborhood foreclosures, voter turnout, and changes in the Republican vote share between the 2006 and the 2010 Arizona gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. Our results show evidence of (1) anti-incumbent voting behavior and more liberal shifts among neighborhoods harder hit by foreclosures and (2) conservative shifts in neighborhoods experiencing African-American and Latinx population growth. These findings are suggestive of a link between neighborhood housing market distress and neighborhood partisan shifts, which in aggregate may shape state and national policymaking and future neighborhood conditions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 301-317
Author(s):  
Scott E. Buchanan

Testing the frontrunner loses myth and minority loses myth, this paper examines the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate runoff between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin. Despite winning 40 per-cent of the primary vote, Jones lost in the runoff to Jim Martin. Methods: We use a variety of data to determine what factors were having the greatest effect on the election. Results: Vernon Jones's strongest support came from the rural counties of central and southern Georgia. While Jones did win high levels of support in counties with large black populations, the fact that Jones was not performing as well in counties in metro Atlanta highlights that controversies surrounding Jones may have been playing a larger role than race. Conclusions: The lack of black voter turnout in the runoff illustrates the problems that even a black candidate has in motivating black voters to return for the runoff.


2007 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 425-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATT A. BARRETO

Traditional studies of political participation assume an electoral environment in which voters decide between two White candidates, and find Latino citizens less politically engaged. Given the growth in the number of Latino candidates for office over the past 20 years, this article tests whether ethnicity impacts Latino voting behavior. I argue that the presence of a Latino candidate mobilizes the Latino electorate, resulting in elevated voter turnout and strong support for the co-ethnic candidates. Although some research provides a theoretical basis for such a claim, this article brings together a comprehensive body of empirical evidence to suggest that ethnicityissalient for Latinos and provides a coherent theory that accounts for the empowering role of co-ethnic candidates. Analysis of recent mayoral elections in five major U.S. cities reveals that Latinos were consistently mobilized by co-ethnic candidates.


2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alastair Smith ◽  
Bruce Bueno De Mesquita

Parties can elitcit widespread electoral support by making the distribution of prizes or rewards to groups of voters contingent upon electoral support. In addition to altering which party wins, a voter's choice also influences the distribution of prizes. This latter factor, referred to in this article as prize pivotalness, tends to be the dominant influence in vote choice. The desire to win prizes can induce voters to coalesce into a highly supportive group, even if they dislike the party's policies. Characterizing voting equilibria in this framework explains the rationale for the support of patronage parties, variance in voter turnout and the endogenous political polarization of groups in both established and new democracies.


Author(s):  
Sören Holmberg ◽  
Henrik Oscarsson

This chapter introduces a section consisting of four studies of Swedish exceptionalism which focus on aspects of elections and voting behavior. A study of voter turnout shows that Swedes are exceptionally participatory. The second chapter in the section, which presents an analysis of class voting, indicates that Swedes are exceptionally old-fashioned and still vote according to the occupational class they belong to. An examination of ideological voting suggests that Swedes are exceptionally influenced by the classic left–right divide. And the final chapter takes as its subject involvement in election campaigns, and finds that Swedes are in exceptionally little personal contact with parties and candidates.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Emily Solnick ◽  
Hwajung Choi ◽  
Keith E Kocher

Introduction: Physicians and other healthcare professionals have critical expertise and important experiences to help shape public policy, yet, historically, have been less likely to engage in the political process as measured by their propensity to vote. We examine whether previous trends in low physician voter turnout persist, contrasting to similar occupational groups and the general population. Methods: Data were from the 2004-2018 Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voter Supplement, a biennial nationally representative household survey that collects self-reported or reports by proxy (household member) voting rates and behavior from congressional and presidential elections. We identified five representative healthcare professionals (physicians, dentists, pharmacists, registered nurses, physician assistants) and five other comparison professions (postsecondary teachers, chief executives, civil engineers, social workers, lawyers) selected by similarities in income or educational backgrounds. Adjusted risk ratios (aRR) were estimated from multivariable logistic regressions comparing voting rates and behavior across occupations controlling for the year and sociodemographic characteristics associated with voting. Results: The pooled sample of US citizens age 18 and older (N=750,236) included 3,009 physicians, mean age 47.6 (SD, 14.9) years, 33.5% women. Household-level response rates ranged from 84%-92%. Physicians and other healthcare providers were significantly less likely to vote than comparison professions or the public after controlling for characteristics associated with voting. Compared to the public, adjusted physician voting rates were 12% lower than expected: aRR of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83- 0.92) whereas comparison professions all demonstrated significantly higher voting rates, with postsecondary teachers showing the highest rates, aRR 1.18 (1.14-1.21). Physicians were 30% more likely to vote by mail, aRR 1.32 (1.12-1.42), and 15% more likely to vote before election day, aRR 1.15 (1.06- 1.25). Physicians who did not vote or register were 70% more likely to report this was due to being “Too busy, conflicting work or school,” compared to the public, aRR 1.7 (1.36 -1.96). Conclusion: Over 2004-2018, adjusted analysis find physicians and other healthcare professionals were significantly less likely to vote, whereas comparative professions were more likely to vote than the general public. Physicians were more likely to vote using alternatives to poll-based voting (voting early, vote by mail) and more likely to miss voting and registration due to work conflicts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (50) ◽  
pp. e2022715118
Author(s):  
Christopher T. Dawes ◽  
Aysu Okbay ◽  
Sven Oskarsson ◽  
Aldo Rustichini

Twin and adoption studies have shown that individual differences in political participation can be explained, in part, by genetic variation. However, these research designs cannot identify which genes are related to voting or the pathways through which they exert influence, and their conclusions rely on possibly restrictive assumptions. In this study, we use three different US samples and a Swedish sample to test whether genes that have been identified as associated with educational attainment, one of the strongest correlates of political participation, predict self-reported and validated voter turnout. We find that a polygenic score capturing individuals’ genetic propensity to acquire education is significantly related to turnout. The strongest associations we observe are in second-order midterm elections in the United States and European Parliament elections in Sweden, which tend to be viewed as less important by voters, parties, and the media and thus present a more information-poor electoral environment for citizens to navigate. A within-family analysis suggests that individuals’ education-linked genes directly affect their voting behavior, but, for second-order elections, it also reveals evidence of genetic nurture. Finally, a mediation analysis suggests that educational attainment and cognitive ability combine to account for between 41% and 63% of the relationship between the genetic propensity to acquire education and voter turnout.


2008 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES H. FOWLER ◽  
LAURA A. BAKER ◽  
CHRISTOPHER T. DAWES

The decision to vote has puzzled scholars for decades. Theoretical models predict little or no variation in participation in large population elections and empirical models have typically accounted for only a relatively small portion of individual-level variance in turnout behavior. However, these models have not considered the hypothesis that part of the variation in voting behavior can be attributed to genetic effects. Matching public voter turnout records in Los Angeles to a twin registry, we study the heritability of political behavior in monozygotic and dizygotic twins. The results show that a significant proportion of the variation in voting turnout can be accounted for by genes. We also replicate these results with data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and show that they extend to a broad class of acts of political participation. These are the first findings to suggest that humans exhibit genetic variation in their tendency to participate in political activities.


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