On the simplicity of simple heuristics

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 261-271
Author(s):  
Gašper Štukelj

Recent evidence suggests that the take-the-best heuristic—flagship of “fast and frugal heuristics” research program—might in fact not be as frugal as tallying, which is considered to be a more complex strategy. Characterizing a simple decision strategy has always seemed straightforward, and the debate around the simplicity of the take-the-best heuristic is mostly concerned with a proper specification of the heuristic. I argue that the predominate conceptions of “simplicity” and “frugality” need to be revised. To this end, a number of recent behavioral and neuroscientific results are discussed. The example of take-the-best heuristic serves as an entry point to a foundational debate on bounded agency. I argue that the fast and frugal heuristics needs to question some of its legacy from the classical AI research. For example, the assumption that the bottleneck of decision-making process is information processing due to its serial nature. These commitments are hard to reconcile with the modern neuroscientific view of a human decision-maker. In addition, I discuss an overlooked source of uncertainty, namely neural noise, and compare a generic heuristic model to a similar neural algorithm.

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 465-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jules Smith-Ferguson ◽  
Madeleine Beekman

Although human decision making seems complex, there is evidence that many decisions are grounded in simple heuristics. Such heuristic models of decision making are widespread in nature. To understand how and why different forms of information processing evolve, it is insightful to study the minimal requirements for cognition. Here, we explore the minimally cognitive behaviour of the acellular slime mould, Physarum polycephalum, in order to discuss the ecological pressures that lead to the development of information processing mechanisms. We discuss evidence for memory, basic forms of learning and economically irrational choice in P. polycephalum. We compare P. polycephalum’s behaviour with a number of other non-neuronal organisms in order to question the evolutionary need for complex nervous systems to develop cognitive traits. By highlighting a few examples of common mechanisms, we conclude that all organisms contain the building blocks for more complex information processing. Returning the debate about cognition to the biological basics demystifies some of the confusion around the term ‘cognition’.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Slaviša Dumnić ◽  
Đorđije Dupljanin ◽  
Vladimir Božović ◽  
Dubravko Ćulibrk

Human strategies for solving the travelling salesperson problem (TSP) continue to draw the attention of the researcher community, both to further understanding of human decision-making and inspiration for the design of automated solvers. Online games represent an efficient way of collecting large amounts of human solutions to the TSP, and PathGame is a game focusing on non-Euclideanclosed-form TSP. To capture the instinctive decision-making process of the users, PathGame requires users to solve the problem as quickly as possible, while still favouring more efficient tours. In the initial study presented here, we have used PathGame to collect a dataset of over 16,000 tours, containing over 22,000,000 destinations. Our analysis of the data revealed new insights related to ways in which humans solve TSP and the time it takes them when forced to solve TSPs of large complexity quickly.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Luen Patrick Rau ◽  
Ye Li ◽  
Jun Liu

Social attributes of intelligent robots are important for human-robot systems. This paper investigates influences of robot autonomy (i.e., high versus low) and group orientation (i.e., ingroup versus outgroup) on a human decision-making process. We conducted a laboratory experiment with 48 college students and tested the hypotheses with MANCOVA. We find that a robot with high autonomy has greater influence on human decisions than a robot with low autonomy. No significant effect is found on group orientation or on the interaction between group orientation and autonomy level. The results provide implications for social robot design.


2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 257-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia E. Hershberger ◽  
Lorna Finnegan ◽  
Susan Altfeld ◽  
Sara Lake ◽  
Jennifer Hirshfeld-Cytron

Background: Young women with cancer now face the complex decision about whether to undergo fertility preservation. Yet little is known about how these women process information involved in making this decision. Objective: The purpose of this article is to expand theoretical understanding of the decision-making process by examining aspects of information processing among young women diagnosed with cancer. Methods: Using a grounded theory approach, 27 women with cancer participated in individual, semistructured interviews. Data were coded and analyzed using constant-comparison techniques that were guided by 5 dimensions within the Contemplate phase of the decision-making process framework. Results: In the first dimension, young women acquired information primarily from clinicians and Internet sources. Experiential information, often obtained from peers, occurred in the second dimension. Preferences and values were constructed in the third dimension as women acquired factual, moral, and ethical information. Women desired tailored, personalized information that was specific to their situation in the fourth dimension; however, women struggled with communicating these needs to clinicians. In the fifth dimension, women offered detailed descriptions of clinician behaviors that enhance or impede decisional debriefing. Conclusion: Better understanding of theoretical underpinnings surrounding women’s information processes can facilitate decision support and improve clinical care.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243661
Author(s):  
Giuseppe M. Ferro ◽  
Didier Sornette

Humans are notoriously bad at understanding probabilities, exhibiting a host of biases and distortions that are context dependent. This has serious consequences on how we assess risks and make decisions. Several theories have been developed to replace the normative rational expectation theory at the foundation of economics. These approaches essentially assume that (subjective) probabilities weight multiplicatively the utilities of the alternatives offered to the decision maker, although evidence suggest that probability weights and utilities are often not separable in the mind of the decision maker. In this context, we introduce a simple and efficient framework on how to describe the inherently probabilistic human decision-making process, based on a representation of the deliberation activity leading to a choice through stochastic processes, the simplest of which is a random walk. Our model leads naturally to the hypothesis that probabilities and utilities are entangled dual characteristics of the real human decision making process. It predicts the famous fourfold pattern of risk preferences. Through the analysis of choice probabilities, it is possible to identify two previously postulated features of prospect theory: the inverse S-shaped subjective probability as a function of the objective probability and risk-seeking behavior in the loss domain. It also predicts observed violations of stochastic dominance, while it does not when the dominance is “evident”. Extending the model to account for human finite deliberation time and the effect of time pressure on choice, it provides other sound predictions: inverse relation between choice probability and response time, preference reversal with time pressure, and an inverse double-S-shaped probability weighting function. Our theory, which offers many more predictions for future tests, has strong implications for psychology, economics and artificial intelligence.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-129
Author(s):  
Michael Ashford ◽  
Andrew Abraham ◽  
Jamie Poolton

Invasion team sports coaches are faced with the problem of developing players who, in any given situation, can make decisions that lead to successful outcomes. Research into human decision making has established three widely accepted perspectives, which sports coaching has used to understand player decision making and inform practice: information processing, ecological psychology, and naturalistic decision making. As a result, coaches are challenged with perspective-specific terminology and having to draw connections between similar findings that are explained in quite different ways. This conceptual paper presents a plainer account of player decision making by proposing a communal language within a conceptual framework for decision making in invasion team sports. It is hoped that the proposed language and framework will, together, facilitate knowledge exchange between researchers and coaches for the betterment of player development.


Author(s):  
Thomas Boraud

The human decision-making process is tainted with irrationality. To address this issue, this book proposes a ‘bottom-up’ approach of the neural substrate of decision-making, starting from the fundamental question: What are the basic properties that a neural network of decision-making needs to possess? Combining data drawn from phylogeny and physiology, this book provides a general framework of the neurobiology of decision-making in vertebrates and explains how it evolved from the lamprey to the apes. It also addresses the consequences, examining how it impacts our capacity of reasoning and some aspects of the pathophysiology of high brain functions. To conclude, the text opens discussion to more philosophical concepts such as the question of free will.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Thais Spiegel ◽  
Ana Carolina P V Silva

In the study of decision-making, the classical view of behavioral appropriateness or rationality was challenged by neuro and psychological reasons. The “bounded rationality” theory proposed that cognitive limitations lead decision-makers to construct simplified models for dealing with the world. Doctors' decisions, for example, are made under uncertain conditions, as without knowing precisely whether a diagnosis is correct or whether a treatment will actually cure a patient, and often under time constraints. Using cognitive heuristics are neither good nor bad per se, if applied in situations to which they have been adapted to be helpful. Therefore, this text contextualizes the human decision-making perspective to find descriptions that adhere more closely to the human decision-making process. Then, based on a literature review of cognition during decision-making, particularly in healthcare context, it addresses a model that identifies the roles of attention, categorization, memory, emotion, and their inter-relations, during the decision-making process.


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