Club convergence of crime rates in the United States of America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kolawole Ogundari
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Convergence Club ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The cyclical behavior of US crime rates reflects the dynamics of crime in the country. This paper aims to investigate the US's club convergence of crime rates to provide insights into whether the crime rates increased or decreased over time. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the probability of states converging to a particular convergence club of crime. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering 1976–2019. This yields a cross-state panel of 2,244 observations with 55 time periods and 51 groups. In addition, the author used a club clustering procedure to investigate the convergence hypothesis in the study. Findings The empirical results support population convergence of violent crime rates. However, the evidence that supports population convergence of property crime rates in the study is not found. Further analysis using the club clustering procedure shows that property crime rates converge into three clubs. The existence of club convergence in property crime rates means that the variation in the property crime rates tends to narrow among the states within each of the clubs identified in the study. Analysis based on an ordered probit model identifies economic, geographic and human capital factors that significantly drive the state's convergence club membership. Practical implications The central policy insight from these results is that crime rates grow slowly over time, as evident by the convergence of violent crime and club convergence of property crime in the study. Moreover, the existence of club convergence of property crime is an indication that policies to mitigate property crime might need to target states within each club. This includes the efforts to use state rather than national crime-fighting policies. Social implications As crimes are committed at the local level, this study's primary limitation is the lack of community-level data on crime and other factors considered. Analysis based on community-level data might provide a better representation of crime dynamics. However, the author hopes to consider this as less aggregated data are available to use in future research. Originality/value The paper provides new insights into the convergence of crime rates using the club convergence procedure in the USA. This is considered an improvement to the methods used in the previous studies.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

scholarly journals Violence Against Authority: Management, Policy, And Research Implications

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Randy R. Edwards ◽  
C. Kenneth Meyer ◽  
Stephen E. Clapham
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Workplace Violence ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Workplace Safety ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The U.S

There has been a steady decline in violent crime in the United States in the past twenty years. Trends indicate that violent crime was down 13.4 percent below the 200l level and for property crime, society is experiencing the tenth straight year of declining rates. Yet, the Southern region of the U.S is disproportionately represented by percentage of overall violent crimes committed nationally. Also, the South is over-represented in the number of police officers who are feloniously killed or assaulted. This empirical research concentrates on violence directed against police in the U.S. and begins by examining the type and magnitude of workplace violence, then transitions to a review of the sociological, political, and psychological literature, focusing on the individual and social causes for violence generally. It ends with an examination of officers feloniously killed (their personal characteristics and that of their assailants), the level of violence against police by type of arrest or enforcement situation, and by region of the country. This paper provides a comparative analysis of street-level violence for general municipal assaults, robbery, and the most rapidly growing type of felonious assaultambush attacks. The paper concludes with an analysis of the societal and behavioral characteristics and considerations related to violence against police. The authors present a number of current trends, training recommendations, and suggestions for improving officer workplace safety.

Abstract 076: Longitudinal Trajectories And Predictors Of County-level Cardiovascular Mortality In The United States (1980-2014)

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shreya Rao ◽  
Amy E Hughes ◽  
Colby Ayers ◽  
Sandeep R Das ◽  
Ethan A Halm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
High Mortality ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Social Characteristics ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
County Level ◽  
Obesity And Diabetes ◽  
Health Factors

Introduction: CV mortality has declined over 4 decades in the U.S. However, whether declines have been uniformly experienced across U.S. counties, and predictors of CV mortality trajectory are not known. Methods: County-level mortality data from 1980-2014 was obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. We used a ClustMix approach to identify 3 distinct county phenogroups based on mortality trajectory. Adjusted multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate the associations between county-level characteristics (demographic, social, and health status) and CV mortality trajectory-based phenogroups. Results: Among 3,133 counties, there were parallel declines in CV mortality in all groups (Fig.1A). High-mortality counties were located in the South and parts of the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys (Fig. 1B). County phenogroups varied significantly in social characteristics such as non-white proportion (low vs. high mortality: 12% vs. 27%), high-school education (11% vs. 20%), and violent crime rates (.01 vs. 0.3/100 population). Disparities in health factors were also observed with higher rates of smoking, obesity, and diabetes in the high (vs. low) mortality groups. A substantial collinearity was observed between social and health factors. In adjusted analysis, social, environmental, and health characteristics explained 56% variance in the county-level CV mortality trajectory. Education status (OR [95% CI]=12.4 [9.4-16.3]), violent crime rates (OR [95% CI] =1.6 [1.3-1.9]), and smoking (OR [95% CI] = 3.9 [3.1- 4.9]) were the strongest predictors of high mortality trajectory phenogroup membership (ref: low mortality). Conclusions: Despite a decline in CV mortality, disparities at the county-level have persisted over the past 4 decades largely driven by differences in social characteristics and smoking prevalence. This highlights the need for multi-domain interventions focusing on safety, education and public health to improve county-level disparities in CV health.

US academic libraries' staffing and expenditure trends (1996–2016)

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (4/5) ◽  
pp. 247-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Starr Hoffman ◽  
Samantha Godbey
Keyword(s):  
Academic Libraries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Size Category ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Education Statistics ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Doctoral Institutions ◽  
Over Time

PurposeThis paper explores trends over time in library staffing and staffing expenditures among two- and four-year colleges and universities in the United States.Design/methodology/approachResearchers merged and analyzed data from 1996 to 2016 from the National Center for Education Statistics for over 3,500 libraries at postsecondary institutions. This study is primarily descriptive in nature and addresses the research questions: How do staffing trends in academic libraries over this period of time relate to Carnegie classification and institution size? How do trends in library staffing expenditures over this period of time correspond to these same variables?FindingsAcross all institutions, on average, total library staff decreased from 1998 to 2012. Numbers of librarians declined at master’s and doctoral institutions between 1998 and 2016. Numbers of students per librarian increased over time in each Carnegie and size category. Average inflation-adjusted staffing expenditures have remained steady for master's, baccalaureate and associate's institutions. Salaries as a percent of library budget decreased only among doctoral institutions and institutions with 20,000 or more students.Originality/valueThis is a valuable study of trends over time, which has been difficult without downloading and merging separate data sets from multiple government sources. As a result, few studies have taken such an approach to this data. Consequently, institutions and libraries are making decisions about resource allocation based on only a fraction of the available data. Academic libraries can use this study and the resulting data set to benchmark key staffing characteristics.

scholarly journals The evolution of infant mortality inequality in the United States, 1960–2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (29) ◽  
pp. eaba5908
Author(s):  
Nick Turner ◽  
Kaveh Danesh ◽  
Kelsey Moran
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Antipoverty Programs ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mortality Inequality

What is the relationship between infant mortality and poverty in the United States and how has it changed over time? We address this question by analyzing county-level data between 1960 and 2016. Our estimates suggest that level differences in mortality rates between the poorest and least poor counties decreased meaningfully between 1960 and 2000. Nearly three-quarters of the decrease occurred between 1960 and 1980, coincident with the introduction of antipoverty programs and improvements in medical care for infants. We estimate that declining inequality accounts for 18% of the national reduction in infant mortality between 1960 and 2000. However, we also find that level differences between the poorest and least poor counties remained constant between 2000 and 2016, suggesting an important role for policies that improve the health of infants in poor areas.

scholarly journals The Spatial and Social Patterning of Property and Violent Crime in Toronto Neighbourhoods: A Spatial-Quantitative Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Wang ◽  
Gabby Lee ◽  
Ian Williams
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The City

Criminal activities are often unevenly distributed over space. The literature shows that the occurrence of crime is frequently concentrated in particular neighbourhoods and is related to a variety of socioeconomic and crime opportunity factors. This study explores the broad patterning of property and violent crime among different socio-economic stratums and across space by examining the neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and individual characteristics of offenders associated with crime in the city of Toronto, which consists of 140 neighbourhoods. Despite being the largest urban centre in Canada, with a fast-growing population, Toronto is under-studied in crime analysis from a spatial perspective. In this study, both property and violent crime data sets from the years 2014 to 2016 and census-based Ontario-Marginalisation index are analysed using spatial and quantitative methods. Spatial techniques such as Local Moran’s I are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of criminal activity while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Distance-to-crime is measured to explore the spatial behaviour of criminal activity. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression is conducted to explore the ways in which individual and neighbourhood demographic characteristics relate to crime rates at the neighbourhood level. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to further our understanding of the spatially varying relationships between crime and the independent variables included in the OLS model. Property and violent crime across the three years of the study show a similar distribution of significant crime hot spots in the core, northwest, and east end of the city. The OLS model indicates offender-related demographics (i.e., age, marital status) to be a significant predictor of both types of crime, but in different ways. Neighbourhood contextual variables are measured by the four dimensions of the Ontario-Marginalisation Index. They are significantly associated with violent and property crime in different ways. The GWR is a more suitable model to explain the variations in observed property crime rates across different neighbourhoods. It also identifies spatial non-stationarity in relationships. The study provides implications for crime prevention and security through an enhanced understanding of crime patterns and factors. It points to the need for safe neighbourhoods, to be built not only by the law enforcement sector but by a wide range of social and economic sectors and services.

Guatemala plans bold new security strategy for 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Police Force ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategy Shift ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Military

Subject Security strategy shift. Significance On January 5, President Jimmy Morales announced plans to withdraw the military from civilian security duties by the end of 2017. The security policy shift comes amid indications that crime rates are beginning to fall. However, a reduction of the military’s presence on the streets will see the bulk of security duties fall upon the police force, which continues to struggle with allegations of corruption and may be ill prepared for the task ahead. Impacts The government’s apparent confidence in declining crime rates will be well received by potential investors. Should it be successful, the move may encourage similar policies in neighbouring countries that struggle with violent crime. The military’s renewed focus on conventional duties may be a warning to Belize in the countries’ border dispute.

EU-China economic ties will become more distant

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Medical Equipment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
European Public ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Over Time

Significance The pandemic has exposed Europe’s dependence on China for medical equipment, the vulnerability of European firms to Chinese takeovers and China’s lack of transparency in general. The resulting deterioration of European governments’ views of China increases the likelihood that EU-China economic relations will become somewhat more distant over time. Impacts The EU’s view of China is aligning more with that of the United States, but differences in aims and tactics impede cooperation. The election of Joe Biden as US president in November would strengthen Western cohesion and cooperation over China. European public opinion on China is likely to become more negative over time.

Counting Guns

2002 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-708
Author(s):  
Gordon Wood ◽  
Robert Churchill ◽  
Edward Cook ◽  
James Lindgren ◽  
Wilbur Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
Gun Laws ◽  
The Impact

At the fall 2001 Social Science History Association convention in Chicago, the Crime and Justice network sponsored a forum on the history of gun ownership, gun use, and gun violence in the United States. Our purpose was to consider how social science historians might contribute nowand in the future to the public debate over gun control and gun rights. To date, we have had little impact on that debate. It has been dominated by mainstream social scientists and historians, especially scholars such as Gary Kleck, John Lott, and Michael Bellesiles, whose work, despite profound flaws, is politically congenial to either opponents or proponents of gun control. Kleck and Mark Gertz (1995), for instance, argue on the basis of their widely cited survey that gun owners prevent numerous crimes each year in theUnited States by using firearms to defend themselves and their property. If their survey respondents are to be believed, American gun owners shot 100,000 criminals in 1994 in selfdefense–a preposterous number (Cook and Ludwig 1996: 57–58; Cook and Moore 1999: 280–81). Lott (2000) claims on the basis of his statistical analysis of recent crime rates that laws allowing private individuals to carry concealed firearms deter murders, rapes, and robberies, because criminals are afraid to attack potentially armed victims. However, he biases his results by confining his analysis to the years between 1977 and 1992, when violent crime rates had peaked and varied little from year to year (ibid.: 44–45). He reports only regression models that support his thesis and neglects to mention that each of those models finds a positive relationship between violent crime and real income, and an inverse relationship between violent crime and unemployment (ibid.: 52–53)–implausible relationships that suggest the presence of multicollinearity, measurement error, or misspecification. Lott then misrepresents his results by claiming falsely that statistical methods can distinguish in a quasi-experimental way the impact of gun laws from the impact of other social, economic, and cultural forces (ibid.: 26, 34–35; Guterl 1996). Had Lott extended his study to the 1930s, the correlation between gun laws and declining homicide rates that dominates his statistical analysis would have disappeared. An unbiased study would include some consideration of alternative explanations and an acknowledgment of the explanatory limits of statistical methods.

scholarly journals A big-data analysis of political rhetoric relating the developments of the United States, China, and global powers

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
Patrick Carter ◽  
Jeffrie Wang ◽  
Davis Chau
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
The United States ◽  
Big Data Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Power ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

PurposeThe similarities between the developments of the United States (U.S.) and China into global powers (countries with global economic, military, and political influence) can be analyzed through big data analysis from both countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not China is on the same path to becoming a world power like what the U.S. did one hundred years ago.Design/methodology/approachThe data of this study is drawn from political rhetoric and linguistic analysis by using “big data” technology to identify the most common words and political trends over time from speeches made by the U.S. and Chinese leaders from three periods, including 1905-1945 in U.S., 1977-2017 in U.S. and 1977-2017 in China.FindingsRhetoric relating to national identity was most common amongst Chinese and the U.S. leaders over time. The differences between the early-modern U.S. and the current U.S. showed the behavioral changes of countries as they become powerful. It is concluded that China is not a world power at this stage. Yet, it is currently on the path towards becoming one, and is already reflecting characteristics of present-day U.S., a current world power.Originality/valueThis paper presents a novel approach to analyze historical documents through big data text mining, a methodology scarcely used in historical studies. It highlights how China as of now is most likely in a transitionary stage of becoming a world power.

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