More spotlight, more problems? Westminster parliamentary systems and leadership replacement in large opposition parties

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 588-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florence So
Keyword(s):  
Original Data ◽  
Legislative Process ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Parliamentary Systems ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Leadership Turnover ◽  
Opposition Parties

In this article, I argue that Westminster parliamentary systems encourage large opposition parties to replace their leaders between elections. Parliamentary system structures how parties compete over legislative outcomes. In Westminster systems, the government’s dominance in the legislative process promotes an adversarial government–opposition relationship. Subsequently, large opposition parties’ electoral prospects are tied to their ability to discredit the government’s policy agenda. Since this responsibility falls to party leaders, leaders of large opposition parties directly affect their parties’ electoral prospects, and parties are more motivated to replace those who are ineffective in damaging the government’s credibility. Therefore, leaders of large opposition parties in Westminster systems carry a higher risk of replacement than their counterparts in other parliamentary systems. I construct an original data set on party leadership turnover in 14 established parliamentary democracies. Results from Cox proportional hazard models support my claim and suggest that institution influences intraparty dynamics.

scholarly journals Revolutions and the Military: Endgame Coups, Instability, and Prospects for Democracy

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Koehler ◽  
Holger Albrecht
Keyword(s):  
Distinct Type ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Original Medium ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
The Military ◽  
Nondemocratic Regimes

This article presents a systematic analysis of military coups following popular mass uprisings in nondemocratic regimes, conceptualized as endgame coups. Drawing on our original, medium- n data set of revolutionary situations, we find that such endgame coups form a distinct type of military intervention in politics. Compared to regular coups, episodes of popular mass contestation prompt conservative interventions in politics of the military’s leadership aimed at preserving the regime’s authoritarian infrastructure. A systematic test of factors characterizing postcoup political trajectories is based on Cox proportional hazard models and provides empirical evidence in contrast to the widely held notion of “democratic coups.” Our findings reveal that endgame coups are conservative rollback coups, executed by military leaderships, that result in continued political instability and illiberal politics.

Unsuccessful Success? Failed No-Confidence Motions, Competence Signals, and Electoral Support

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1474-1499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

If no-confidence motions are primarily motivated by bringing down governments, why do only approximately 5% of no-confidence motions in advanced parliamentary democracies from 1960 result in the termination of government? In this project the author addresses this puzzle by developing a formal model of the electoral benefits of no-confidence motions and tests these hypotheses with the use of an original data set. No-confidence motions represent highly visible opportunities for opposition parties to highlight their strength or ability compared to the government in the hopes of improving their vote shares. The author finds support for the signal-based theory on a sample of 20 advanced parliamentary democracies from 1960 to 2008. Although no-confidence motions result in decreases for the government parties, the opposition parties that propose the motion experience boosts in vote share. This relationship is even stronger when the proposing party is an alternative governing possibility—illustrated by the conditioning impacts of the number of parliamentary parties and the opposition party’s ideological extremism. This provides an explanation as to why opposition parties would continue to challenge the government even though the motions are likely to fail.

scholarly journals The international diffusion of expatriate dual citizenship

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maarten Vink ◽  
Arjan H Schakel ◽  
David Reichel ◽  
Ngo Chun Luk ◽  
Gerard-René de Groot
Keyword(s):  
Individual Choice ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dual Citizenship ◽  
International Diffusion ◽  
Normative Pressure ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Global Increase ◽  
Diaspora Politics

Abstract While the global increase of expatriate dual citizenship acceptance over the past decades has been widely observed, the temporal and spatial contexts of this trend have remained understudied. Based on a novel data set of expatriate dual citizenship policies worldwide since 1960, we find that dual citizenship toleration has increased in the last half century from one-third to three-quarter of states globally. We argue that these domestic policy changes should be understood in light of normative pressure in a world where restrictions on individual choice in citizenship status are increasingly contested and where liberalisation is reinforced through interdependence and diaspora politics. We apply Cox proportional hazard models to examine dual citizenship liberalisation and find that states are more likely to move to a tolerant policy if neighbouring states have done so and that they tend to do so in conjunction with extending voting rights to citizens residing abroad and receiving remittances from abroad. Contrary to other studies, we do not observe significant variation by regime type.

scholarly journals LAMB1 Is Related to the T Stage and Indicates Poor Prognosis in Gastric Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110049
Author(s):  
Tao Ran ◽  
ZhiJi Chen ◽  
LiWen Zhao ◽  
Wei Ran ◽  
JinYu Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Kegg Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Gastric Cancer Patients

Background and Objective: Gastric cancer (GC) is a common tumor malignancy with high incidence and poor prognosis. Laminin is an indispensable component of basement membrane and extracellular matrix, which is responsible for bridging the internal and external environment of cells and transmitting signals. This study mainly explored the association of the LAMB1 expression with clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis in gastric cancer. Methods: The expression data and clinical information of gastric cancer patients were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Asian Cancer Research Group (ACRG). And we analyzed the relationship between LAMB1 expression and clinical characteristics through R. CIBERSORTx was used to calculate the absolute score of immune cells in gastric tumor tissues. Then COX proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier curves were performed to evaluate the role of LAMB1 and its influence on prognosis in gastric cancer patients. Finally, GO and KEGG analysis were applied for LAMB1-related genes in gastric cancer, and PPI network was constructed in Cytoscape software. Results: In the TCGA cohort, patients with gastric cancer frequently generated LAMB1 gene copy number variation, but had little effect on mRNA expression. Both in the TCGA and ACRG cohorts, the mRNA expression of LAMB1 in gastric cancer tissues was higher than it in normal tissues. All patients were divided into high expression group and low expression group according to the median expression level of LAMB1. The elevated expression group obviously had more advanced cases and higher infiltration levels of M2 macrophages. COX proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with enhanced expression of LAMB1 have a worse prognosis. GO/KEGG analysis showed that LAMB1-related genes were enriched in PI3K-Akt signaling pathway, focal adhesion, ECM-receptor interaction, etc. Conclusions: The high expression of LAMB1 in gastric cancer is related to the poor prognosis of patients, and it may be related to microenvironmental changes in tumors.

scholarly journals Inflammatory and Hypercoagulable Biomarkers and Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 3086
Author(s):  
Hiroki Kitakata ◽  
Shun Kohsaka ◽  
Shunsuke Kuroda ◽  
Akihiro Nomura ◽  
Takeshi Kitai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Interquartile Range ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Multicenter Observational Study ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Time Of Admission ◽  
Mortality Hazard Ratio ◽  
D Dimer

Systemic inflammation and hypercoagulopathy are known pathophysiological processes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly in patients with known cardiovascular disease or its risk factors (CVD). However, whether a cumulative assessment of these biomarkers at admission could contribute to the prediction of in-hospital outcomes remains unknown. The CLAVIS-COVID registry was a Japanese nationwide retrospective multicenter observational study, supported by the Japanese Circulation Society. Consecutive hospitalized patients with pre-existing CVD and COVID-19 were enrolled. Patients were stratified by the tertiles of CRP and D-dimer values at the time of admission. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were constructed. In 461 patients (65.5% male; median age, 70.0), the median baseline CRP and D-dimer was 58.3 (interquartile range, 18.2–116.0) mg/L and 1.5 (interquartile range, 0.8–3.0) mg/L, respectively. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.5%, and the rates steadily increased in concordance with both CRP (5.0%, 15.0%, and 28.2%, respectively p < 0.001) and D-dimer values (6.8%, 19.6%, and 22.5%, respectively p = 0.001). Patients with the lowest tertiles of both biomarkers (CRP, 29.0 mg/L; D-dimer, 1.00 mg/L) were at extremely low risk of in-hospital mortality (0% until day 50, and 1.4% overall). Conversely, the elevation of both CRP and D-dimer levels was a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (Hazard ratio, 2.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.57–5.60). A similar trend was observed when the biomarker threshold was set at a clinically relevant threshold. In conclusion, the combination of these abnormalities may provide a framework for rapid risk estimation for in-hospital COVID-19 patients with CVD.

scholarly journals Prognostic implications of depression and inflammation in patients with metastatic lung cancer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C McFarland ◽  
Rebecca M. Saracino ◽  
Andrew H. Miller ◽  
William Breitbart ◽  
Barry Rosenfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Metastatic Lung Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Metastatic Lung ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Prognostic Implications

Background: Lung cancer-related inflammation is associated with depression. Both elevated inflammation and depression are associated with worse survival. However, outcomes of patients with concomitant depression and elevated inflammation are not known. Materials & methods: Patients with metastatic lung cancer (n = 123) were evaluated for depression and inflammation. Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazard models provided survival estimations. Results: Estimated survival was 515 days for the cohort and 323 days for patients with depression (hazard ratio: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.05–1.179), 356 days for patients with elevated inflammation (hazard ratio: 2.85, 95% CI: 1.856–4.388), and 307 days with both (χ2 = 12.546; p < 0.001]). Conclusion: Depression and inflammation are independently associated with inferior survival. Survival worsened by inflammation is mediated by depression-a treatable risk factor.

scholarly journals The role of the Italian Constitutional Court in the policy agenda: persistence and change between the First and Second Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Rebessi ◽  
Francesco Zucchini
Keyword(s):  
Access Point ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Legislative Process ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Second Republic ◽  
Present Contribution ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Research Questions

AbstractIf we examine the current literature, no study on policy agenda has so far addressed the agenda of a Constitutional Court in a country that has recently experienced crucial changes in its political system. The present contribution on the Italian Constitutional Court seeks to bridge this gap. We aim at assessing the role the Italian Court plays in the policy process in both the First and the Second Republic by answering two research questions: (1) in its decisions does the Court accommodate themes that are neglected in the parliamentary legislative process? (2) Does the Court (and if so, how often) represent interests and values in opposition to the interests and values supporting the current legislative majorities? By employing an original data set that puts together all decisions of constitutional illegitimacy under incidental review between the years 1983 and 2013, we found that in both Republics Court’s agenda is significantly more concentrated than Parliament’s agenda, and it does not broadly offer an alternative access point to the policy-making for new or neglected issues. However, at the same time, the alternational system of the Second Republic seems to trigger more immediate and ‘salient’ reactions from the Constitutional Court, which in that period becomes more prone to sanction recent legislation.

scholarly journals Potato consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer in the HELGA cohort

2018 ◽  
Vol 119 (12) ◽  
pp. 1408-1415
Author(s):  
Lene A. Åsli ◽  
Tonje Braaten ◽  
Anja Olsen ◽  
Anne Tjønneland ◽  
Kim Overvad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Glycaemic Index ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Potato Consumption ◽  
Adjusted Model

AbstractPotatoes have been a staple food in many countries throughout the years. Potatoes have a high glycaemic index (GI) score, and high GI has been associated with several chronic diseases and cancers. Still, the research on potatoes and health is scarce and contradictive, and we identified no prospective studies that had investigated the association between potatoes as a single food and the risk of pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate the association between potato consumption and pancreatic cancer among 114 240 men and women in the prospective HELGA cohort, using Cox proportional hazard models. Information on diet (validated FFQ’s), lifestyle and health was collected by means of a questionnaire, and 221 pancreatic cancer cases were identified through cancer registries. The mean follow-up time was 11·4 (95 % CI 0·3, 16·9) years. High consumption of potatoes showed a non-significantly higher risk of pancreatic cancer in the adjusted model (hazard ratio (HR) 1·44; 95 % CI 0·93, 2·22,Pfor trend0·030) when comparing the highestv.the lowest quartile of potato consumption. In the sex-specific analyses, significant associations were found for females (HR 2·00; 95 % CI 1·07, 3·72,Pfor trend0·020), but not for males (HR 1·01; 95 % CI 0·56, 1·84,Pfor trend0·34). In addition, we explored the associations by spline regression, and the absence of dose–response effects was confirmed. In this study, high potato consumption was not consistently associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer. Further studies with larger populations are needed to explore the possible sex difference.

Abstract P153: Racial Disparities in Diabetic Complications in a Middle and Low Income Population of Louisiana

Circulation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 125 (suppl_10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujie Wang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Liwei Chen ◽  
Ronald Horswell ◽  
Wenting Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Diabetic Complications ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage ◽  
Incident Rates

Background: Although coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are major microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, they are less clear for diabetic subgroups especially on those with middle and low income. Aim: To investigate racial disparities in the incidence of diabetic complications in middle and low income adults. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study (1985-2010) on diabetic patients enrolled in the LSU Hospital-Based Longitudinal Study. Study cohorts included 89,353 diabetic patients (16,326 White men, 21,496 White women, 19,422 African American men and 32,109 African American women) who were 30 to 96 years of age. We calculated the gender specific age-standardized incident rates using the direct method to the year 2010 Census population. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare racial or gender specific hazard ratios for CHD, HF, stroke and ESRD after adjustment for age, race, type of health insurance, family income, body mass index, smoking, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, HbA 1c , estimated GFR, albuminuria, and drug treatments for diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia. Results: During an average 4.0 years of follow-up, 16,935 CHD, 13,421 HF, 6,804 stroke, and 13,281 ESRD incident cases were ascertained. The age-standardized incident rates of the four diabetic complications are presented in table 1 . Compared with White diabetic patients, African Americans experienced higher rates of ESRD and lower rates of CHD, HF, and stroke. Female diabetic patients had lower rates of the four complications than males. Results of the Cox proportional hazard models confirmed the racial disparity and gender difference we found in the age-standardized incident rates. Conclusions: The results support the existence of racial differences in the incidence of diabetic complications in this population. Table 1 Age-adjusted incident rates of type 2 diabetes complications in the LSUHLS study Age-standardized incident rates White African American Male Female Male Female Coronary Heart Disease 101.6 (98.8-104.5) 62.0 (60.4-63.7) 50.7 (49.2-52.2) 44.4 (43.4-45.5) Heart Failure 54.9 (52.9-56.8) 41.9 (40.6-43.1) 43.4 (42.0-44.8) 38.4 (37.4-39.3) Stroke 22.1 (20.9-23.3) 20.7 (19.8-21.6) 19.9 (19.0-20.8) 18.5 (17.8-19.1) End-stage Renal Disease 43.3 (41.6-45.0) 33.4 (32.2-34.5) 51.4 (50.0-52.9) 35.2 (34.3-36.1)

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