Life-shortening effects of radiological weapons in military operations

2021 ◽  
pp. 154851292110642
Author(s):  
Edson R Andrade ◽  
Isabela S Alves ◽  
Ana Carolina Lodi Lobato ◽  
Ricardo M Stenders ◽  
Rodrigo C Curzio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Solid Cancer ◽  
Radiation Doses ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Health Physics ◽  
Radiological Risk ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Instructional Resource ◽  
Radiological Dispersion Device

Military operations can present risks whose origins may be unconventional. As an example, we can mention those within the spectrum of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) defense. This study evaluates, through a computer simulation, an operation in which soldiers face radiological contamination after the triggering of a radiological dispersion device (RDD) in an inhabited urban area. The simulation of the Gaussian scattering (analytical) of the Cs-137 radionuclide is performed using the HotSpot Health Physics codes software. The results of the simulation are evaluated according to two radiological risk domains, referring to high (above 100 mSv) and low integrated radiation doses over 4 continuous days of operation. The radiological risk for developing solid cancer according to specific epidemiological models was estimated. This information served as a basis for estimating the future detriment, that is, the loss of life expectancy (LLE). In addition, the methodology may serve as an instructional resource for tabletop exercises contributing to develop leadership and preparation for decision-making in asymmetric environments.

Personality, Social Identity, and Individual Differences in Multinational Decision-Making

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 848-852
Author(s):  
Gerald Matthews ◽  
Lauren Reinerman-Jones ◽  
Shawn Burke ◽  
Grace Teo ◽  
David Scribner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Social Identity ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Multicultural Competence ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Sociocultural Factors ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Samples

Contemporary military operations require the US to partner with coalition nations, so that commanders must make effective decisions for multinational teams. The effectiveness of decision-making may depend on various factors. General decision-making competence and personality traits that promote interpersonal functioning may be advantageous in the team context. Sociocultural factors such as a strong nationalistic social identity may be harmful to decision-making in multinational teams. The current study ( N=696) examined correlates of a Situation Judgment Test (SJT) for multicultural decision-making ability in multiple samples. Predictors of better SJT performance included general decision-making ability, low nationalism, and various personality traits. Multivariate analyses discriminated multiple, independent predictors. Findings suggest assessment of the various strengths and weaknesses that shape the individual’s decision-making may inform training for multicultural competence.

scholarly journals Evidence based decision making and COVID-19: what a posteriori probability distributions speak.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudhir Bhandari ◽  
Amit Tak ◽  
Jyotsna Shukla ◽  
Bhoopendra Patel ◽  
Ajit Singh Shaktawat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
General Population ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Posteriori Probability ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Bivariate Distributions ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making

Abstract Background: In the absence of a vaccine for coronavirus disease-19, the management of the current pandemic revolves around public health measures such as social distancing, lockdown, and contact tracing. A number of epidemiological models are used in decision making and for generating research intelligence. The models require information regarding the structures of social contact between different ages and genders. The present study fosters evidence-based decision making by estimating various a posteriori probability distributions from data of COVID-19 patients. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective observational study, 987 real-time RT-PCR SARS CoV-2 positive patients from SMS Medical College, Jaipur, India were enrolled after approval of the institutional ethics committee. The data regarding age, gender, and outcome were collected from case sheets. The univariate and bivariate distributions of COVID-19 cases with respect to age, gender, and outcome were estimated. The age distribution of COVID-19 cases was compared with the age distribution of general population using goodness of fit c2 test. The independence of attributes in bivariate distributions was evaluated using the chi square test for independence.Results: The age group ‘25-29’ has shown highest probability of COVID-19 cases (P[25-29] = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.12- 0.16). The men (P[Male] = 0.62, 95%CI: 0.59-0.65) were dominant sufferers. The most common outcome was recovery (P[Recovered] = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.76-0.81) followed by admitted cases (P[Active]= 0.13, 95%CI: 0.11-0.15) and death (P[Death] = 0.08, 95%CI: 0.06-0.10). The age distribution of COVID-19 cases differs significantly from the age distribution of the general population (c2 = 399.04, p < 0.001). The bivariate distribution of COVID-19 across age and outcome was not independent (c2 =106.21, df = 32, p < 0.001).Conclusion: The age, gender, and outcome distributions helps in evaluating disease dynamics and the social structure of the community. The knowledge of patterns of disease frequency helps in optimum allocation of limited resources and manpower. The study provides information for various epidemiological models, to decide the duration of lockdown.

scholarly journals Applicability of Artificial Intelligence in Decision-Making for Land Forces

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 039-054
Author(s):  
Paul Tudorache
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
The Other ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Military

Similar to other fields, also in the military one, the Artificial Intelligence has become recently an evident solution for optimizing specific processes and activities. Therefore, this research paper aims to highlight the potential uses of Artificial Intelligence in the military operations carried out by the Land Forces. In this regard, analysing the framework of the operations process and applying suitable research methodology, the main findings are related to AI’s contributions in optimizing commander’s decisions during the progress of planning and execution. On the other hand, picturing the AI upgrated combat power of the Land Forces is another significant result of this study.

PARTICULARITIES REGARDING THE USE OF PLANNING METHODOLOGIES IN THE FRAMEWORK OF LAND FORCES’ MILITARY OPERATIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
Paul TUDORACHE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
National Level ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Primary Activity ◽  
The Military ◽  
Military Decision Making

Abstract: The manifestation of different dissensions regarding the use of planning methodologies in the operations process has become a reality, both at national level and within NATO. Therefore, this research paper contributes to the theoretical clarification on defining the specific methodologies, respectively their employment in relation to the level of Land Forces military operations. Another objective of this paper is to make a comparative analysis between the design methodology, military decision making process (MDMP) and troop leading procedures (TLP), targeting the military structures within the Land Forces, and those belonging to NATO. Also, at the end, the paper highlights some perspectives of improving planning, as the primary activity which starts the operations process.

Modern Military Operations

2021 ◽  
pp. 522-535
Author(s):  
Christine Boshuijzen-van Burken
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Moral Decision ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Moral Decision Making ◽  
Friendly Fire ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Information And Communication

Modern military operations are characterized by ubiquitous use of technology, in particular the use of information and communication technologies for real-time information sharing. The use of technology on the battlefield is assumed to improve decision making in military practice. By making use of a friendly fire incident in Afghanistan, namely the Sangin incident in 2011, the author highlights why moral decision making could be hampered by technology. This is partly due to the fact that information and communication technologies subtly connect sub-practices that exist within the broader military practice, thus potentially blurring normative structures. Blurring of normative structures can cause problems for moral decision making on the battlefield, because it is suddenly not clear who is responsible for the course of action.

Situation Understanding for Operational Art in Cyber Operations

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuija Kuusisto ◽  
Rauno Kuusisto ◽  
Wolfgang Roehrig
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Social System ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Capability Development ◽  
Emergent Phenomena ◽  
Operational Art

This paper presents a theoretically motivated framework and methodology that has been designed for finding out the emergent phenomena and information needs for planning and decision-making. The approach is based on complexity thinking, system modeling, communication and cognition philosophy, social system theories and content analysis research technique. It provides results with the analysis of quite small sets of information. The paper demonstrates the approach with a case study. The study was performed in an international cyber experiment of the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) 2013-2014. The case study shows that the proposed approach is plausible for increasing understanding about complex situations. This is needed in operational art for creating such compositions and resources that enable success in military operations.

Spies and Boats and Planes: An Examination of U.S. Decision-Making during the Pueblo Hostage Crisis of 1968

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-40
Author(s):  
David Patrick Houghton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Sense Of Self ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Jigsaw Puzzle ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Intelligence Gathering ◽  
Lyndon Johnson ◽  
The Cold War

Hostage crises almost always involve a tradeoff between the “national honor”—bound up with national identity and a sense of self-esteem—and the desire to get hostages back safely and without loss of life. This was certainly the case in 1968, as President Lyndon Johnson and his advisers agonized over the crew of the USS Pueblo, which had been seized by North Korea while on an intelligence-gathering mission at the height of the Cold War. Such episodes also commonly lead to a frantic search for historical analogies and policy options that will attain one objective or another. Various historical analogies influenced the deliberations of U.S. policymakers as they looked beyond cases involving the seizure of intelligence-gathering ships to other types of hostage incident involving U.S. helicopters and spy planes. They gradually pieced together a solution to the problem at hand, much as one would a jigsaw puzzle.

scholarly journals A modeled radiological dispersive device release and the impact to decision-making in an urban environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 316-322
Author(s):  
Paulo Oliveira ◽  
Ubiratan Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo Stenders ◽  
Ademir Silva ◽  
Helio Vital ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Radioactive Material ◽  
Sensitive Information ◽  
Training Environment ◽  
Stability Class ◽  
Radiological Dispersion Device ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

A radiological dispersion device is a weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives for spreading radioactive material across an inhabited area. This study is focused on evaluating key parameters in an radiological dispersion device scenario. The calculations were performed to include two different situations: by using explosives and by simple mechanical release. Simulations were conducted with the use of the HotSpot Health Physics Codes. The results suggest the existence of significant correlations between stability classes in scenarios where they evolve with time, producing alternations between them. As long as the stability class remains constant, this latter finding offers the possibility of creating a suitable response, based on temporal evolutions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to: estimate the size of the potentially affected population, estimate absorbed doses, and estimate the cost-effectiveness in order to help initial responses by providing time-sensitive information about the event. A methodology capable of providing useful information allows prompt decisions and initial assessments of future risks to be made efficiently. This approach can also provide a training environment for the personnel responsible for the decision-making at an early stage of the response.

scholarly journals Simulated nuclear contamination scenario, solid cancer risk assessment, and support to decision

Nukleonika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio X. Lima ◽  
Karolina P. S. Costa ◽  
Zelmo R. Lima ◽  
Fagner C. Rother ◽  
Olga M. O. Araujo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiation Effects ◽  
Radioactive Material ◽  
Cancer Risk Assessment ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Solid Cancer ◽  
Health Physics ◽  
Output Data ◽  
Mathematical Relationships ◽  
Atmospheric Release

Abstract The detonation of an (hypothetical) improvised nuclear device (IND) can generate atmospheric release of radioactive material in the form of particles and dust that ultimately contaminate the soil. In this study, the detonation of an IND in an urban area was simulated, and its effects on humans were determined. The risk of solid cancer development due to radiation was calculated by taking into account prompt radiation and whole-body exposure of individuals near the detonation site up to 10 km. The excess relative risk (ERR) of developing solid cancer was evaluated by using the mathematical relationships from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) studies and those from the HotSpot code. The methodology consists of using output data obtained from simulations performed with the HotSpot health physics code plugging in such numbers into a specific given equation used by RERF to evaluate the resulting impact. Such a preliminary procedure is expected to facilitate the decision-making process significantly.

scholarly journals Health Physics Calculation Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment of Radiological Contamination

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-420
Author(s):  
Francesco Teodori ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
External Exposure ◽  
Radiation Doses ◽  
Computational Tool ◽  
Health Physics ◽  
Computational Framework ◽  
Animal Products ◽  
Environmental Impact Statements ◽  
Human Health Effects

<abstract><p>A fundamental step for safety assessment is the study and modeling of the radionuclide transfer through the environment up to reach and expose population to risk. In this vein we are working to provide a reliable and flexible computational framework which can be used for both retrospective and prospective calculations of radiation doses and human health effects, resulting from both routine and uncontrolled releases of radionuclides to the environment and from pre-existing environment contamination. The goal is to provide a multipurpose computational tool to be used for siting facilities, environmental impact statements, and safety analysis reports. The code can handle: external exposure from finite or infinite atmospheric plumes; external exposure from contaminated soil, sediments, and water; external exposure from special geometries; and internal exposures from inhalation, inadvertent intake of soil, consumption of terrestrial foods, aquatic foods, drinking water, and animal products.</p></abstract>

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