The Responsible Congressional Electorate: Watergate, the Economy, and Vote Choice in 1974

1985 ◽  
Vol 79 (3) ◽  
pp. 788-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric M. Uslaner ◽  
M. Margaret Conway
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Other ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Political Studies ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than

Most analyses of the 1974 congressional elections have failed to find significant effects for either Watergate or personal financial conditions, despite the prominence of both of these issues in the campaign. An alternative thesis argues that the effect was indirect, through the selection of better-than-usual Democratic candidates and weaker Republican contestants for House seats. Reanalyzing campaign finance data, we challenge this thesis and then move on to a different type of analysis from that which traditionally has been done in retrospective voting studies. With the use of the 1972-1974 panel of the Center for Political Studies, we examine separately the voting behavior of what V. O. Key, Jr. called “standpatters” and “switchers.” The former are motivated primarily by party identification, with small Watergate effects. Our probit analylsis for switchers, on the other hand, finds much weaker party identification effects, but, interestingly, much more pronounced Watergate and economic impacts. Furthermore, an analysis of the sample compared to the population of districts in 1974 suggests that a more representative sample would lead to even more pronounced impacts for Watergate and the economy than even we have found.

scholarly journals How negative partisanship affects voting behavior in Europe: Evidence from an analysis of 17 European multi-party systems with proportional voting

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 205316801668663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Conservative Christian ◽  
The Comparative Study ◽  
Election Studies

While positive party identification is one of the most used concepts in election studies, negative partisanship (NPID) is rarely analyzed. Evidence from two-party systems or settings with majority voting shows that hostility towards one of the other parties has its own unique impact on voting behavior. However, this effect has not been analyzed in the context of European multi-party systems with proportional voting. In this paper, I utilize data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Module 3, which demonstrates that negative partisanship has its own positive effect on turnout (about nine percentage points). In addition, negative partisanship affects vote choice by 2–6 percentage points. However, contrary to previous findings, NPID does not always affect voting for one of the other parties; no significant relationship was found between NPID and vote choice for Conservative/Christian Democratic and Liberal parties. The results of this study add to the growing literature on negative partisanship and demonstrate its importance in the analysis of voting behavior in multi-party systems.

HISPANICS PARA TRUMP?

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 457-487
Author(s):  
Rudy Alamillo
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Hispanic Americans ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Hispanic Voters ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
Better Than

AbstractLittle has been written about the Hispanic Americans who voted for Donald Trump. Despite his comments about Mexicans and immigrants, data suggest that Trump performed as well or better than Mitt Romney among Hispanic voters. Using the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, this paper examines Hispanic support for Trump by looking at traditional predictors of vote choice such as party identification and ideology, as well as a novel measure of racism: denial of racism. This paper finds that, like non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics higher in denial of racism were more likely to vote Trump in 2016, as well as for Romney in the 2012 election. In addition, denial of racism is the strongest predictor of support for Trump among Hispanics, above even party identification and ideology. This suggests that while Trump’s rhetoric may not appeal to most Hispanic voters, it strongly appeals to those that hold disproportionately high levels of denial of racism. I offer some theoretical reasons for these findings and discuss the role that denial of racism plays in predicting voting behavior.

scholarly journals Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Voting Models ◽  
Better Than

In the postwar United States the president's party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic administrations above-average, economic growth in the first half of each term, whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities. In presidential elections, voters choose between two polarized candidates. They then use midterm elections to counterbalance the president's policies by strengthening the opposition in Congress. Since presidents of different parties are associated with different policies, our model predicts a (spurious) correlation between the state of the economy and elections. Our predictions contrast with those of retrospective voting models, in which voters reward the incumbent if the economy is doing well before the election. Our model performs empirically at least as well as, and often better than, alternative models.

Effects of a Target RIM on Basketball Shooting Accuracy

1987 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 863-866
Author(s):  
Larry A. Sage
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Free Throw ◽  
Basketball Game ◽  
Eastern Washington ◽  
Washington University ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Basketball Shooting

The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a basketball target rim on free-throw and field-goal shooting accuracy. The target rims employed in this study were different from regular rims as the apparatus that connects the target rim to the backboard was painted a neutral color. Subjects included all of the 1984–85 Eastern Washington University men's basketball players and the other players on 10 basketball teams who played games with the Eastern Washington University men's basketball team in the 1984–85 season. Practice statistics were kept in all EWU shooting situations, drills as well as scrimmages. Individual game statistics of the entire basketball game were made for the 10 games in which the target rims were used. A random selection of combined free-throw and field-goal shooting accuracy taken during the practice sessions showed that shooting percentage on the target rim was noticeably higher than the shooting percentage on the regular rim. The shooting accuracy of the EWU team and the visiting teams during game competition showed that accuracy of field-goal shooting on the target rim was significantly better than on the regular rim but not for free-throw accuracy. The target rim may improve shooting accuracy and influence total scoring in basketball.

The Class Basis of Arqentine Political Parties

1969 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-167
Author(s):  
Peter G. Snow
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Industrial Workers ◽  
Middle Classes ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Social

Students of Latin American political parties have long assumed a strong correlation between social class and party identification, yet this assumption has never been tested empirically in any of the Latin American nations. This is probably due in large part to the lack of reliable survey data; however, even the mass of aggregate voting data has seldom been analyzed systematically. As a result, most of what we know—or think we know—about voting behavior in Latin America is based upon the intuitive assumptions of North American scholars. “If I were a member of the Chilean middle class, I would probably vote for the Radicals or Christian Democrats, but on the other hand if I were quite wealthy I would probably vote for the Conservatives.”Students of Argentine politics assume that the Conservative parties, always representing the interests of the nation's aristocracy, have received the bulk of their votes from the large landowners; that the interests of this group consistently have been opposed by the Radical parties who receive their electoral support from the urban middle classes; and that the more recently formed Peronist parties have championed the cause of, and been supported at the polls by, the industrial workers. It is the purpose of this article to test these assumptions, primarily through analysis of aggregate voting data, but also by examining the social backgrounds of party leaders and their actions while in power.

On Selection Procedures Based on The Exceedance Probability

1976 ◽  
Vol 25 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umesh D. Naik
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Sequential Procedure ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Selection Procedures ◽  
Normal Populations ◽  
Two Populations ◽  
Bayes Procedure ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than

A number of normal populations are to be compared in terms of exceedance probability. When comparing two populations, a population is to be designated as better than the other if it has a greater exceedance probability. A Bayes procedure is given for selecting the subset of populations which contains the best population. A Bayes sequential procedure for selection of the best population is also described.

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

scholarly journals Reference values for the sprint performance in male football players aged from 9–35 years

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Theodoros Nikolaidis ◽  
Beat Knechtle ◽  
Filipe Clemente ◽  
Gema Torres-Luque
Keyword(s):  
Reference Values ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sprint Performance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Football Players ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Football Coaches ◽  
Monitoring Training ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Better Than

SummaryStudy aim: The aim of the present study was twofold: firstly, to examine the effect of age on a 20 m sprint performance; and secondly, to establish normative data for the 20 m sprint performance by age in football players. Material and methods: The anthropometric characteristics of 474 football players (aged 16.81 ± 5.35 yrs, range 9.02–35.41 yrs) were examined and their 20 m sprint performance (with 0–10 and 10–20 m splits) was monitored by a photocell system (Brower Timing Systems, Utah, USA). Results: A one-way analysis of variance revealed significant differences between the yearly age groups with regards to the sprint time (p < 0.001, η2 = 0.584), as well as the 0–10 m (p < 0.001, η2 = 0.361) and 10–20 m split times (p < 0.001, η2 = 0.635). The older groups scored better than the younger groups. The time attained in the 20 m sprint, and the 0–10 m and 10–20 m splits correlated moderately to largely with the athlete’s age (r = –0.53, –0.40 and –0.57, respectively, p < 0.001). Conclusions: In summary, the speed ability of the football players improved with age until 15 years old, where it reached its peak. On the other hand, the other age groups U16 to U35 revealed no major differences in the speed over a 20 m sprint. The reference values presented in this study might help football coaches and fitness trainers in monitoring training and in the selection of players. Moreover, since this is the first study of this kind to compare adult age groups, sport scientists focusing on relevant topics might use it as a reference in future studies.

A Partisan Schema for Political Information Processing

1986 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 505-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milton Lodge ◽  
Ruth Hamill
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Political Information ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Policy Statements ◽  
Interest And Knowledge ◽  
Better Than

Based on their interest in politics and knowledge of political leaders, individuals are classified into three levels of partisan sophistication: (1) those scoring high in interest and knowledge (partisan schematics), (2) a middle group, and (3) those scoring low (partisan aschematics). In this experimental study, and consistent with findings from cognitive and social psychology, partisan schematics prove better able than partisan aschematics to classify campaign statements as either Republican or Democratic and to recall the policy stands taken by a fictitious congressman. Aschematics, at the other extreme, perform at no better than chance levels in either the recognition or recall of the congressman's policy statements. There are, however, liabilities to sophistication as well: Schematics demonstrate a “consistency bias” in recalling significantly more policy statements that are consistent with the congressman's party identification than are inconsistent with it. This “restructuring” of memory is especially pronounced among sophisticates, and reflects a serious bias in the processing of political information.

The Politics of American Political Scientists

1971 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 135-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Everett Carll Ladd ◽  
Seymour Martin Lipset
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Faculty Members ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Views ◽  
General Recognition ◽  
The University

At the heart of the debates which have resounded around political science these past few years are charges and countercharges as to the “politics” of the contenders. Terms likeconservative, liberalandradical areno longer reserved for analysis of positions in the larger society; they have become part of the regular vocabulary with which political scientists evaluate their colleagues. This increase in visible and self-conscious political dissensus extends, of course, throughout the university, but it has left a special mark on political science and the other social sciences where the issues and objects of political disagreement are so enmeshed with the regular subject matter of the discipline.In spite of all of the discussion, and the now seemingly general recognition that the politics of members of the profession has a lot to do with its development and contributions, we still don't have very much firm information on the distribution of political views among the approximately 6,000 faculty members regularly engaged in the teaching of political science in the United States. There have been a number of studies, of course, of party identification and voting behavior, showing political science to be one of the most Democratic fields in academe.

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