Poor self-rated health predicts the incidence of functional disability in elderly community dwellers in Japan: a prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Although previous large population studies showed elderly with poor self-rated health (SRH) to be at a high risk of functional disability in Western countries, there have been few studies in which the association between SRH and functional disability was investigated in Japanese community dwellers. The association between SRH and functional disability, defined as certification of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system, in Japanese elderly community dwellers was examined in this study. Methods A total of 10,690 individuals (39.5% men, mean age of 71.4 years) who were 65 years of age or more who did not have a history of cardiovascular disease or LTCI certification were followed in this prospective study for 10.5 years. SRH was classified into four categories: good, rather good, neither good nor poor, and poor. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) for the incidence of functional disability among the SRH groups for each sex. Results The number of individuals with functional disability was 3377. Men who rated poor for SRH scored significantly higher for functional disability (HR [95% confidence interval]: poor = 1.74 [1.42, 2.14]) while women who rated rather good, neither good nor poor, and poor scored significantly higher for functional disability (rather good =1.12 [1.00, 1.25], neither good nor poor = 1.29 [1.13, 1.48], poor = 1.92 [1.65, 2.24]: p for trend < 0.001 in both sexes). Conclusion Self-rated health, therefore, might be a useful predictor of functional disability in elderly people.

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Pre-Existing Disability and Its Risk of Fragility Hip Fracture in Older Adults

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16071237 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. 1237

Author(s):

Jayeun Kim ◽

Soong-Nang Jang ◽

Jae-Young Lim

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Hip Fracture ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Mental Disabilities ◽

Term Care ◽

Fragility Hip Fracture

Background: Hip fracture is one of the significant public concerns in terms of long-term care in aging society. We aimed to investigate the risk for the incidence of hip fracture focusing on disability among older adults. Methods: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study, focusing on adults aged 65 years or over who were included in the Korean National Health Insurance Service–National Sample from 2004 to 2013 (N = 90,802). Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model according to disability adjusted for age, household income, underlying chronic diseases, and comorbidity index. Results: The incidence of hip fracture was higher among older adults with brain disability (6.3%) and mental disability (7.5%) than among those with other types of disability, as observed during the follow-up period. Risk of hip fracture was higher among those who were mildly to severely disabled (hazard ratio for severe disability = 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33–1.89; mild = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.49–1.88) compared to those who were not disabled. Older men with mental disabilities experienced an incidence of hip fracture that was almost five times higher (hazard ratio, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.86–13.31) versus those that were not disabled. Conclusions: Older adults with mental disabilities and brain disability should be closely monitored and assessed for risk of hip fracture.

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Menopausal factors and risk of seropositive rheumatoid arthritis in postmenopausal women: a nationwide cohort study of 1.36 million women

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-77841-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yeonghee Eun ◽

Keun Hye Jeon ◽

Kyungdo Han ◽

Dahye Kim ◽

Hyungjin Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽

Postmenopausal Women ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hormone Replacement ◽

Large Population ◽

Reproductive Factors ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model

AbstractIn previous literature regarding development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), female reproductive factors have been described as protective factors, risk factors, or irrelevant, leading to inconsistent results. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of female reproductive factors on the incidence of seropositive RA. A large population-based retrospective cohort of the National Health Insurance Service data in South Korea was used. Postmenopausal women who participated in both cardiovascular and breast cancer screening in 2009 were included and followed until date of seropositive RA diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2018. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between reproductive factors and incident seropositive RA. Of 1,357,736 postmenopausal women, 6056 women were diagnosed with seropositive RA, and the incidence rate was 54.16 cases/100,000 person-years. Reproductive factors other than hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were not significantly associated with seropositive RA incidence. Postmenopausal women who used HRT ≥ 5 years were associated with a higher aHR of incident seropositive RA than never-users (aHR 1.25; 95% CI 1.09–1.44). Alcohol consumption less than 30 g per day (aHR 0.80; 95% CI 0.74–0.87), regular physical activity (aHR 0.90; 95% CI 0.84–0.97), diabetes mellitus (aHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78–0.93), and cancer (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.64–0.92) were associated with lower risk of seropositive RA. Most female reproductive factors did not significantly affect the development of seropositive RA in postmenopausal women. Only HRT is associated with a small but significant increase in risk of seropositive RA.

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828Dietary Variety and Incident Disabling Dementia in Elderly Japanese Adults

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyab168.735 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Yuri Yokoyama ◽

Akihiko Kitamura ◽

Yu Nofuji ◽

Satoshi Seino ◽

Hidenori Amano ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Community Dwelling ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Term Care ◽

Dietary Variety ◽

Japanese Adults ◽

Elderly Japanese ◽

A Prospective Study

Abstract Background Although consuming a variety of foods is an internationally accepted recommendation for a healthy diet, little is known about the association between dietary variety and incident dementia. This study aimed to examine the association between dietary variety and incident disabling dementia in community-dwelling elderly Japanese adults. Methods We conducted a prospective study of 721 participants (age range: 65–97 years) of the 2012–2013 Kusatsu Longitudinal Study. Dietary variety was assessed based on a food frequency questionnaire that encompassed the 10 main food components of Japanese meals: meat, fish/shellfish, eggs, milk, soybean products, green/yellow vegetables, potatoes, fruit, seaweed, and fats/oils). Participants were then categorized into low (0–2 points), middle (3–5 points), and high (6–10 points) groups based on the scores. Data regarding incident disabling dementia were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance database. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results During the median follow-up of 6.5 years, the incidence of disabling dementia was 9.3%. After adjusting for confounders, the multivariate HR for incident disabling dementia was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.27–1.00) for participants in the highest category of the dietary variety score compared to that for those in the lowest category. Conclusions Greater dietary variety is associated with a reduced risk of incident disabling dementia in elderly Japanese adults. Key messages Consuming a variety of foods may be necessary for dementia prevention.

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The effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on cognitive decline among long-term care insurance users in Japan: a retrospective cohort study

Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12199-021-01038-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Shuhei Yoshida ◽

Saori Kashima ◽

Masatoshi Matsumoto

Keyword(s):

Cognitive Decline ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

The Elderly ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Residential Environment ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Term Care ◽

Hazards Model

Abstract Background The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly. Methods Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis. Results The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05–1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00–1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06–1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67–1.17). Conclusions This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support.

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Use of psychoactive drugs predicts functional disability among older adults

Revista de Saúde Pública ◽

10.11606/s1518-8787.2019053000675 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 53 ◽

pp. 21 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Denise Mourão Falci ◽

Juliana Vaz de Melo Mambrini ◽

Érico Castro-Costa ◽

Josélia Oliveira Araújo Firmo ◽

Maria Fernanda Lima-Costa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Functional Disability ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Psychoactive Drugs ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Prospective Association

OBJECTIVE: Investigate whether the use of psychoactive drugs would be a predictor of incidence of functional disability among seniors living in community. METHODS: It is a population-based longitudinal study, developed between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2011, with older adults living in community. The association between the use of psychoactive drugs and the development of functional disability for instrumental (IADLs) and basic (BADLs) activities of daily living was tested using the extended Cox proportional hazards model, which considers the measure of exposure of interest throughout the follow-up period. The analyses were stratified by sex and adjusted by sociodemographic characteristics, health behavior and health conditions. RESULTS: After multivariate adjustment, the use of two or more psychoactive drugs in the female stratum was associated with disability for both IADLs (HR = 1.58; 95%CI 1.17–2.13) and BADLs (HR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.05–1.94), the use of benzodiazepines was associated with disability for IADLs (HR = 1.32; 95%CI 1.07–1.62), and the use of antidepressants was associated with disability for both IADLs (HR = 1.51; 95%CI 1.16–1.98) and BADLs (HR = 1.44; 95%CI 1.10–1.90). In the male stratum, the use of antipsychotics was associated with disability for IADLs (HR = 3.14; 95%CI 1.49–6.59). CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a prospective association between the use of psychoactive drugs and functional disability. These results indicate the need to carefully assess the prescription of psychoactive drugs for older adults and monitor their usage in order to detect damages to the health of users.

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Smoking cessation and incident dementia in elderly Japanese: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study

European Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1007/s10654-020-00612-9 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (9) ◽

pp. 851-860

Author(s):

Yukai Lu ◽

Yumi Sugawara ◽

Shu Zhang ◽

Yasutake Tomata ◽

Ichiro Tsuji

Keyword(s):

Smoking Cessation ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Smoking Status ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Term Care ◽

Incident Dementia ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Elderly Japanese

Abstract To investigate the association of smoking status and years since smoking cessation with the risk of incident dementia among elderly Japanese. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of smoking status and smoking cessation with dementia in prospective cohort study of 12,489 Japanese individuals aged ≥ 65 years who were followed up for 5.7 years. Information on smoking status and other lifestyle factors was collected via a questionnaire in 2006. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance Database. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for incident dementia. During 61,613 person-years of follow-up, 1110 cases (8.9%) of incident dementia were documented. Compared with individuals who had never smoked, current smokers showed a higher risk of dementia (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.17, 1.80). Among ex-smokers, the risk for those who had stopped smoking for ≤ 2 years was still high (HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.96, 2.01), however, quitting smoking for 3 years or longer mitigated the increased risk incurred by smokers; the multivariable HRs (95% CIs) were 1.03 (0.70, 1.53) for those who had stopped smoking for 3–5 years, 1.04 (0.74, 1.45) for 6–10 years, 1.19 (0.84, 1.69) for 11–15 years, and 0.92 (0.73, 1.15) for > 15 years. Our study suggests that the risk of incident dementia among ex-smokers becomes the same level as that of never smokers if they maintain abstinence from smoking for at least 3 years.

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Association between coordination of long-term care insurance service and adverse outcome after discharge in older patients with heart failure

European Journal of Cardiovascular Nursing ◽

10.1093/eurjcn/zvab060.131 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Y Tsunekawa ◽

T Adachi ◽

T Kameyama ◽

K Kobayashi ◽

A Matsuoka ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Patients ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Adverse Outcome ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Rank Test ◽

Term Care ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Group I

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Long-term care insurance (LTCI) has a key role in the disease management of older patients in Japan. However, clinical benefit of coordinating LTCI service during hospitalization has not been examined in patients with heart failure (HF). Purpose We aimed to examine the association between the coordination of LTCI service and adverse outcome after discharge in Japanese older patients with HF. Methods The inclusion criteria of this retrospective cohort study were patients aged ≥ 65 years hospitalised for HF who used any LTCI services after discharge. In Japan, people aged ≥ 65 who satisfy the eligibility criteria are eligible to receive LTCI services. Questionnaires regarding daily life and activities are used to assess eligibility and create the 7 certification levels: support required 1 or 2, and care levels 1 (least disabled) to 5 (most disabled). In this study, patients were divided into 1) patients without any change in LTCI service during hospitalisation (Group N), 2) patients with coordination of LTCI services during hospitalization (Group C), 3) patients who newly initiated LTCI service after discharge (Group I). The primary outcome was a composite of HF rehospitalisation and all-cause mortality. Survival rate was compared using Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using Cox proportional-hazards model adjusted for propensity score calculated based on age, gender, brain natriuretic peptide, β-blocker, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor /angiotensin II receptor blocker, need of any walking device or assistance at discharge, living alone, LTCI level. Results A total of 135 older patients were included (mean age 84 years, men 46%). During the median follow-up of 580 days, 43 events occurred. The number of patients for each group was as following: Group N, n = 91; Group C, n = 20; Group I, n = 24. The survival rates were significantly different among the three groups (log-rank test p = 0.039 , Figure 1). In Cox proportional-hazards model with Group N as a reference, Group C was associated with reduced risk of the study outcome (hazard ratio 0.22, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.91, p = 0.036). Group I also showed lower event rate but not statistically significant (hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.30, p = 0.756). All the patients in Group C used visiting nurse service, whereas the implementation rates were 12.1% and 37.5% in Group N and Group I, respectively. Implementation rate of visiting rehabilitation was higher in Group C (20.0%) compared to Group N (1.1%) and Group I (4.2). Conclusions Patients with coordination of LTCI service during HF hospitalization showed reduced risk of adverse outcome after discharge, implying the clinical benefits of utilization of LTCI service. Further large-scale studies are needed to examine the optimal utilization of tailor-made LTCI service according to the patient’s condition.

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Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000468 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 27-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kuan-Ying Lee ◽

Chung-Yi Li ◽

Kun-Chia Chang ◽

Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽

Ying-Yeh Chen

Keyword(s):

Young People ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Birth Registry ◽

Data Set ◽

Parental Suicide ◽

The Impact ◽

Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

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Proliferation-dominant high-grade astrocytoma: survival benefit associated with extensive resection of FLAIR abnormality region

Journal of Neurosurgery ◽

10.3171/2018.12.jns182775 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 132 (4) ◽

pp. 998-1005 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Haihui Jiang ◽

Yong Cui ◽

Xiang Liu ◽

Xiaohui Ren ◽

Mingxiao Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Survival Benefit ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Extent Of Resection ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

High Grade ◽

Extensive Resection ◽

High Grade Astrocytoma

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.

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Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9060103 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 103

Author(s):

Morne Joubert ◽

Tanja Verster ◽

Helgard Raubenheimer ◽

Willem D. Schutte

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Financial Reporting ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Survival Curve ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Reporting Standard ◽

International Financial Reporting Standard ◽

Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

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