scholarly journals The effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on cognitive decline among long-term care insurance users in Japan: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhei Yoshida ◽  
Saori Kashima ◽  
Masatoshi Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Decline ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Residential Environment ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Background The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly. Methods Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis. Results The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05–1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00–1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06–1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67–1.17). Conclusions This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p <.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

scholarly journals Pre-Existing Disability and Its Risk of Fragility Hip Fracture in Older Adults

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1237
Author(s):  
Jayeun Kim ◽  
Soong-Nang Jang ◽  
Jae-Young Lim
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Mental Disabilities ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Fragility Hip Fracture

Background: Hip fracture is one of the significant public concerns in terms of long-term care in aging society. We aimed to investigate the risk for the incidence of hip fracture focusing on disability among older adults. Methods: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study, focusing on adults aged 65 years or over who were included in the Korean National Health Insurance Service–National Sample from 2004 to 2013 (N = 90,802). Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model according to disability adjusted for age, household income, underlying chronic diseases, and comorbidity index. Results: The incidence of hip fracture was higher among older adults with brain disability (6.3%) and mental disability (7.5%) than among those with other types of disability, as observed during the follow-up period. Risk of hip fracture was higher among those who were mildly to severely disabled (hazard ratio for severe disability = 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33–1.89; mild = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.49–1.88) compared to those who were not disabled. Older men with mental disabilities experienced an incidence of hip fracture that was almost five times higher (hazard ratio, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.86–13.31) versus those that were not disabled. Conclusions: Older adults with mental disabilities and brain disability should be closely monitored and assessed for risk of hip fracture.

Prognostic indicators of secondary progression in a paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis cohort in Kuwait

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1086-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Akhtar ◽  
Raed Alroughani ◽  
Samar F Ahmed ◽  
Jasem Y Al-Hashel
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Adjusted Hazard Ratio ◽  
Secondary Progressive ◽  
Hazards Model

Background: The frequency of paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) and the precise risk of secondary progression of disease are largely unknown in the Middle East. This cross-sectional cohort study assessed the risk and examined prognostic factors for time to onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) in a cohort of POMS patients. Methods: The Kuwait National MS Registry database was used to identify a cohort of POMS cases (diagnosed at age <18 years) from 1994 to 2013. Data were abstracted from patients’ records. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the prognostic significance of the variables considered. Results: Of 808 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, 127 (15.7%) were POMS cases. The median age (years) at disease onset was 16.0 (range 6.5–17.9). Of 127 POMS cases, 20 (15.8%) developed SPMS. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model showed that at MS onset, brainstem involvement (adjusted hazard ratio 5.71; 95% confidence interval 1.53–21.30; P=0.010), and POMS patient age at MS onset (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.88; P=0.042) were significantly associated with the increased risk of a secondary progressive disease course. Conclusions: This study showed that POMS patients with brainstem/cerebellar presentation and a relatively higher age at MS onset had disposition for SPMS and warrant an aggressive therapeutic approach.

Predictors of Survival After Surgical Treatment of Spinal Metastasis

Neurosurgery ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 674-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert T Arrigo ◽  
Paul Kalanithi ◽  
Ivan Cheng ◽  
Todd Alamin ◽  
Eugene J Carragee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Charlson Comorbidity Index ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Spinal Metastasis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Ambulatory Status ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Comorbidity Index

Abstract BACKGROUND: Surgery for spinal metastasis is a palliative treatment aimed at improving patient quality of life by alleviating pain and reversing or delaying neurologic dysfunction, but with a mean survival time of less than 1 year and significant complication rates, appropriate patient selection is crucial. OBJECTIVE: To identify the most significant prognostic variables of survival after surgery for spinal metastasis. METHODS: Chart review was performed on 200 surgically treated spinal metastasis patients at Stanford Hospital between 1999 and 2009. Survival analysis was performed and variables entered into a Cox proportional hazards model to determine their significance. RESULTS: Median overall survival was 8.0 months, with a 30-day mortality rate of 3.0% and a 30-day complication rate of 34.0%. A Cox proportional hazards model showed radiosensitivity of the tumor (hazard ratio: 2.557, P &lt; .001), preoperative ambulatory status (hazard ratio: 2.355, P = .0001), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (hazard ratio: 2.955, P &lt; .01) to be significant predictors of survival. Breast cancer had the best prognosis (median survival, 27.1 months), whereas gastrointestinal tumors had the worst (median survival, 2.66 months). CONCLUSION: We identified the Charlson Comorbidity Index score as one of the strongest predictors of survival after surgery for spinal metastasis. We confirmed previous findings that radiosensitivity of the tumor and ambulatory status are significant predictors of survival.

scholarly journals Prefrontal Aβ pathology influencing the pathway from apathy to cognitive decline in non-dementia elderly

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Sun ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Guanjun Li ◽  
Shifu Xiao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cognitive Decline ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Amyloid Β ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Mediation Effects ◽  
Hazards Model

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to investigate the complex connection between apathy and cognitive decline that remains unclear. A total of 1057 non-dementia elderly from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database received up to 13 years of follow-up and were divided into an apathy negative (−) group of 943 participants and an apathy positive (+) group of 114 participants through the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI)-apathy subitem. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers and amyloid β (Aβ) PET were measured, and their longitudinal changes were assessed using linear mixed-effects models. Risk factors for cognitive decline and apathy conversion were explored through the Cox proportional hazards model. Mediation effects of Aβ pathology on cognition were investigated using the causal mediation analysis. Apathy syndrome was associated with faster impairment of cognition and elevation of the Aβ burden. The effects of apathy on cognitive function and life quality were mediated by Aβ pathology, including CSF Aβ42/total tau ratio, and Aβ deposition in the prefrontal regions. Apathy syndrome was the risk factor for cognitive deterioration; meanwhile, frontal Aβ burden was the risk factor for apathy conversion. Apathy syndrome is an early manifestation of cognitive decline and there are bidirectional roles between apathy syndrome and Aβ pathology. Prefrontal Aβ pathology influenced the pathway from apathy to cognitive decline.

scholarly journals Chemotherapy and Survival in Patients with Primary High-Grade Extremity and Trunk Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Cancers ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2389
Author(s):  
Danielle S. Graham ◽  
Ritchell van Dams ◽  
Nicholas J. Jackson ◽  
Mykola Onyshchenko ◽  
Mark A. Eckardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soft Tissue ◽  
Soft Tissue Sarcoma ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
High Volume ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Multi Agent

The use of upfront chemotherapy for primary localized soft tissue sarcoma (STS) of the extremity and trunk is debated. It remains unclear if chemotherapy adds clinical benefit, which patients are likely to benefit, and whether the timing of therapy affects outcomes. We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to examine the association between overall survival (OS) and chemotherapy in 5436 patients with the five most common subtypes of STS with primary disease localized to the extremity or trunk, mirroring the patient population of a modern phase 3 clinical trial of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We then examined associations between timing of multi-agent chemotherapy (neoadjuvant or adjuvant) and OS. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching (PSM) to account for covariates including demographic, patient, clinical, treatment, and facility factors. In the overall cohort, we observed no association between multi-agent chemotherapy or its timing and improved OS. Multi-agent chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in several subgroups, including patients with larger tumors (>5 cm), those treated at high-volume centers, or those who received radiation. We also identified an OS benefit to multi-agent chemotherapy among the elderly (>70 years) and African American patients. Multi-agent chemotherapy was associated with improved survival for patients with tumors >5 cm, who receive radiation, or who receive care at high-volume centers. Neither younger age nor chemotherapy timing was associated with better outcomes. These ‘real-world’ findings align with recent randomized trial data supporting the use of multi-agent chemotherapy in high-risk patients with localized STS.

scholarly journals The Association Between Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Matter and Incidence of Hypertension Among Chinese Elderly: A Retrospective Cohort Study

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Wensu ◽  
Chen Wen ◽  
Zhou Fenfen ◽  
Wang Wenjuan ◽  
Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hypertension Risk ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Confounding Variables

Background and Objectives: Studies that investigate the links between particulate matter ≤2. 5 μm (PM2.5) and hypertension among the elderly population, especially those including aged over 80 years, are limited. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between PM2.5 exposure and the risk of hypertension incidence among Chinese elderly.Methods: This prospective cohort study used 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 wave data from a public database, the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, a national survey investigating the health of those aged over 65 years in China. We enrolled cohort participants who were free of hypertension at baseline (2008) from 706 counties (districts) and followed up in the 2011, 2014, and 2018 survey waves. The annual PM2.5 concentration of 706 counties (districts) units was derived from the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group database as the exposure variable, and exposure to PM2.5 was defined as 1-year average of PM2.5 concentration before hypertension event occurrence or last interview (only for censoring). A Cox proportional hazards model with penalized spline was used to examine the non-linear association between PM2.5 concentration and hypertension risk. A random-effects Cox proportional hazards model was built to explore the relationship between each 1 μg/m3, 10 μg/m3 and quartile increment in PM2.5 concentration and hypertension incidence after adjusting for confounding variables. The modification effects of the different characteristics of the respondents were also explored.Results: A total of 7,432 participants aged 65–116 years were enrolled at baseline. The median of PM2.5 exposure concentration of all the participants was 52.7 (inter-quartile range, IQR = 29.1) μg/m3. Overall, the non-linear association between PM2.5 and hypertension incidence risk indicated that there was no safe threshold for PM2.5 exposure. The higher PM2.5 exposure, the greater risk for hypertension incidence. Each 1 μg/m3 [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02] and 10 μg/m3 (AHR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.09–1.16) increments in PM2.5, were associated with the incidence of hypertension after adjusting for potential confounding variables. Compared to first quartile (Q1) exposure, the adjusted HRs of hypertension incidence for the Q2, Q3 and Q4 exposure of PM2.5 were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.13–1.51), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.15–1.60), and 1.83 (95% CI: 1.53–2.17), respectively. The effects appear to be stronger among those without a pension, living in a rural setting, and located in central/western regions.Conclusion: We found no safe threshold for PM2.5 exposure related to hypertension risk, and more rigorous approaches for PM2.5 control were needed. The elderly without a pension, living in rural and setting in the central/western regions may be more vulnerable to the effects of PM2.5 exposure.

scholarly journals Association between coordination of long-term care insurance service and adverse outcome after discharge in older patients with heart failure

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Tsunekawa ◽  
T Adachi ◽  
T Kameyama ◽  
K Kobayashi ◽  
A Matsuoka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Group I

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Long-term care insurance (LTCI) has a key role in the disease management of older patients in Japan. However, clinical benefit of coordinating LTCI service during hospitalization has not been examined in patients with heart failure (HF). Purpose We aimed to examine the association between the coordination of LTCI service and adverse outcome after discharge in Japanese older patients with HF. Methods The inclusion criteria of this retrospective cohort study were patients aged ≥ 65 years hospitalised for HF who used any LTCI services after discharge. In Japan, people aged ≥ 65 who satisfy the eligibility criteria are eligible to receive LTCI services. Questionnaires regarding daily life and activities are used to assess eligibility and create the 7 certification levels: support required 1 or 2, and care levels 1 (least disabled) to 5 (most disabled). In this study, patients were divided into 1) patients without any change in LTCI service during hospitalisation (Group N), 2) patients with coordination of LTCI services during hospitalization (Group C), 3) patients who newly initiated LTCI service after discharge (Group I). The primary outcome was a composite of HF rehospitalisation and all-cause mortality. Survival rate was compared using Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using Cox proportional-hazards model adjusted for propensity score calculated based on age, gender, brain natriuretic peptide, β-blocker, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor /angiotensin II receptor blocker, need of any walking device or assistance at discharge, living alone, LTCI level. Results A total of 135 older patients were included (mean age 84 years, men 46%). During the median follow-up of 580 days, 43 events occurred. The number of patients for each group was as following: Group N, n = 91; Group C, n = 20; Group I, n = 24. The survival rates were significantly different among the three groups (log-rank test p = 0.039 , Figure 1). In Cox proportional-hazards model with Group N as a reference, Group C was associated with reduced risk of the study outcome (hazard ratio 0.22, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.91, p = 0.036). Group I also showed lower event rate but not statistically significant (hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.30, p = 0.756). All the patients in Group C used visiting nurse service, whereas the implementation rates were 12.1% and 37.5% in Group N and Group I, respectively. Implementation rate of visiting rehabilitation was higher in Group C (20.0%) compared to Group N (1.1%) and Group I (4.2). Conclusions Patients with coordination of LTCI service during HF hospitalization showed reduced risk of adverse outcome after discharge, implying the clinical benefits of utilization of LTCI service. Further large-scale studies are needed to examine the optimal utilization of tailor-made LTCI service according to the patient’s condition.

scholarly journals Effect of multiple episodes of acute kidney injury on mortality: an observational study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Walker ◽  
Nicosha De Souza ◽  
Simona Hapca ◽  
Miles D Witham ◽  
Samira Bell
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Patients who survive an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) are more likely to have further episodes of AKI. AKI is associated with increased mortality, with a further increase with recurrent episodes. It is not clear whether this is due to AKI or as a result of other patient characteristics. The aim of this study was to establish whether recurrence of AKI is an independent risk factor for mortality or if excess mortality is explained by other factors. Methods This observational cohort study included adult people from the Tayside region of Scotland, with an episode of AKI between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009. AKI was defined using the creatinine-based Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes definition. Associations between recurrent AKI and mortality were examined using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results Survival was worse in the group identified to have recurrent AKI compared with those with a single episode of AKI [hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37–1.63; P &lt; 0.001]. After adjustment for comorbidities, stage of reference AKI, sex, age, medicines that predispose to renal impairment or, in the 3 months prior to the reference AKI, deprivation and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), recurrent AKI was independently associated with an increase in mortality (hazard ratio = 1.25, 95% CI 1.14–1.37; P &lt; 0.001). Increasing stage of reference AKI, age, deprivation, baseline eGFR, male sex, previous myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and diuretic use were all associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with recurrent AKI. Conclusions Recurrent AKI is associated with increased mortality. After adjusting for patient characteristics, the increase in mortality is independently associated with recurrent AKI and is not solely explained by other risk factors.

P4155Multiple modality biomarkers predict ischemic heart disease in middle-aged men from the general population during a 21-year follow-up

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Sakalaki ◽  
P.-O Hansson ◽  
A Rosengren ◽  
E Thunstrom ◽  
A Pivodic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) often develops after decades of preceding subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. An early prediction of risk for IHD in a general population would be helpful for preventive decision-making. It is well known that biomarkers including troponine, natriuretic peptides and inflammatory biomarkers are useful prognostic predictors for IHD, their long-term predictive values in a general population for incident IHD have not been studied. Purpose The aim of the study was to investigate the predictive value of multi-modality biomarkers on the incident IHD in a random male sample from the general population followed from the age of 50 to 71 years. Method “The study of Men Born in 1943” is a longitudinal cohort study of men living in the city of Gothenburg in Sweden. All patients underwent a baseline examination in 1993, which included physical examination, questionnaires and blood samples. Because of multifactorial nature of atherosclerosis, a panel of biomarkers representing multiple mechanisms such as high-sensitivity troponine (hs-TNT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), cystatin C, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), urat, ferritin, and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were analyzed from blood samples collected at 50 years of age. Incident IHD was defined as new-onset one of following (myocardial infarction, hospitalized unstable angina and intervention with either percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) during 1993–2014. The impact of biomarkers on incident IHD was studied using univariable, followed by stepwise and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results Among the, 753 patients in the study, 105 patients (13,9%) developed IHD during 21 years of follow up with an event rate per 1000 person years 7.49 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 6.19 - 9.07. In Cox proportional hazards model for time to first occurrence of IHD, univariable analyses showed that multi-modality biomarker (CRP >1 mg/ml, NT-proBNP >100 pg/mL, troponin >10 ng/L, IL-6 >8 ng/L) provide most powerful prediction, followed by total cholesterol and fasting plasma glucose. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for time to first of IHD, above four-biomarker combination modality remains a most powerful predictor with risk increased by one additional biomarker [Hazard Ratio (95% CI): 1.69 (1.26 - 2.26), p=0.0004], followed by total cholesterol (mmol/L) with risk increased by one [Hazard Ratio (95% CI: 1.31 (1.09 - 1.56), p=0.0031], and fasting plasma glucose (mmol/L) with risk increased by one unit [Hazard Ratio (95% CI): 1.11 (1.01 - 1.22), p=0.038]. Conclusion A multi-modality biomarker strategy can be used to predict increased risk of developing IHD during the following two decades after 50 years, enabling us to identify individuals who might benefit from early intensive risk modification to prevent the development of IHD.

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