Changes in mortality rates and causes of death in a population-based cohort of persons living with and without HIV from 1996 to 2012

Abstract Background The Central African Republic (CAR) suffers a protracted conflict and has the second lowest human development index in the world. Available mortality estimates vary and differ in methodology. We undertook a retrospective mortality study in the Ouaka prefecture to obtain reliable mortality data. Methods We conducted a population-based two-stage cluster survey from 9 March to 9 April, 2020 in Ouaka prefecture. We aimed to include 64 clusters of 12 households for a required sample size of 3636 persons. We assigned clusters to communes proportional to population size and then used systematic random sampling to identify cluster starting points from a dataset of buildings in each commune. In addition to the mortality survey questions, we included an open question on challenges faced by the household. Results We completed 50 clusters with 591 participating households including 4000 household members on the interview day. The median household size was 7 (interquartile range (IQR): 4—9). The median age was 12 (IQR: 5—27). The birth rate was 59.0/1000 population (95% confidence interval (95%-CI): 51.7—67.4). The crude and under-five mortality rates (CMR & U5MR) were 1.33 (95%-CI: 1.09—1.61) and 1.87 (95%-CI: 1.37–2.54) deaths/10,000 persons/day, respectively. The most common specified causes of death were malaria/fever (16.0%; 95%-CI: 11.0–22.7), violence (13.2%; 95%-CI: 6.3–25.5), diarrhoea/vomiting (10.6%; 95%-CI: 6.2–17.5), and respiratory infections (8.4%; 95%-CI: 4.6–14.8). The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was 2525/100,000 live births (95%-CI: 825—5794). Challenges reported by households included health problems and access to healthcare, high number of deaths, lack of potable water, insufficient means of subsistence, food insecurity and violence. Conclusions The CMR, U5MR and MMR exceed previous estimates, and the CMR exceeds the humanitarian emergency threshold. Violence is a major threat to life, and to physical and mental wellbeing. Other causes of death speak to poor living conditions and poor access to healthcare and preventive measures, corroborated by the challenges reported by households. Many areas of CAR face similar challenges to Ouaka. If these results were generalisable across CAR, the country would suffer one of the highest mortality rates in the world, a reminder that the longstanding “silent crisis” continues.

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Stillbirth, newborn and infant mortality: trends and inequalities in four population-based birth cohorts in Pelotas, Brazil, 1982–2015

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyy129 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 48 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. i54-i62 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Ana M B Menezes ◽

Fernando C Barros ◽

Bernardo L Horta ◽

Alicia Matijasevich ◽

Andréa Dâmaso Bertoldi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Black Women ◽

Infant Mortality ◽

Low Income ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Death Rates ◽

Economic Inequalities

Abstract Background Infant-mortality rates have been declining in many low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil. Information on causes of death and on socio-economic inequalities is scarce. Methods Four birth cohorts were carried out in the city of Pelotas in 1982, 1993, 2004 and 2015, each including all hospital births in the calendar year. Surveillance in hospitals and vital registries, accompanied by interviews with doctors and families, detected fetal and infant deaths and ascertained their causes. Late-fetal (stillbirth)-, neonatal- and post-neonatal-death rates were calculated. Results All-cause and cause-specific death rates were reduced. During the study period, stillbirths fell by 47.8% (from 16.1 to 8.4 per 1000), neonatal mortality by 57.0% (from 20.1 to 8.7) and infant mortality by 62.0% (from 36.4 to 13.8). Perinatal causes were the leading causes of death in the four cohorts; deaths due to infectious diseases showed the largest reductions, with diarrhoea causing 25 deaths in 1982 and none in 2015. Late-fetal-, neonatal- and infant-mortality rates were higher for children born to Brown or Black women and to low-income women. Absolute socio-economic inequalities based on income—expressed in deaths per 1000 births—were reduced over time but relative inequalities—expressed as ratios of mortality rates—tended to remain stable. Conclusion The observed improvements are likely due to progress in social determinants of health and expansion of health care. In spite of progress, current levels remain substantially greater than those observed in high-income countries, and social and ethnic inequalities persist.

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Race disparities in mortality by breast cancer from 2000 to 2017 in São Paulo, Brazil: a population-based retrospective study

BMC Cancer ◽

10.1186/s12885-021-08735-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ana Cláudia Marcelino ◽

Bruno Gozzi ◽

Cássio Cardoso-Filho ◽

Helymar Machado ◽

Luiz Carlos Zeferino ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Retrospective Study ◽

Black Women ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

White Women ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

São Paulo ◽

Race Disparities

Abstract Background In Brazil, inequalities in access may interfere with cancer care. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of race on breast cancer mortality in the state of São Paulo, from 2000 to 2017, contextualizing with other causes of death. Methods A population-based retrospective study using mortality rates, age and race as variables. Information on deaths was collected from the Ministry of Health Information System. Only white and black categories were used. Mortality rates were age-adjusted by the standard method. For statistical analysis, linear regression was carried out. Results There were 60,940 deaths registered as breast cancer deaths, 46,365 in white and 10,588 in black women. The mortality rates for 100,000 women in 2017 were 16.46 in white and 9.57 in black women, a trend to reduction in white (p = 0.002), and to increase in black women (p = 0.010). This effect was more significant for white women (p < 0.001). The trend to reduction was consistent in all age groups in white women, and the trend to increase was observed only in the 40–49 years group in black women. For ‘all-cancer causes’, the trend was to a reduction in white (p = 0.031) and to increase in black women (p < 0.001). For ‘ill-defined causes’ and ‘external causes’, the trend was to reduce both races (p < 0.001). Conclusion The declared race influenced mortality rates due to breast cancer in São Paulo. The divergences observed between white and black women also were evident in all cancer causes of death, which may indicate inequities in access to highly complex health care in our setting.

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Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2017-015941 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. e015941 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Han Cao ◽

Jing Wang ◽

Yichen Li ◽

Dongyang Li ◽

Jin Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Congenital Heart Disease ◽

Heart Disease ◽

Birth Weight ◽

Congenital Heart ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Congenital Abnormalities ◽

Birth Asphyxia ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Beijing China

ObjectivesTo analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016–2020.MethodsAn entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software.ResultsMortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1–4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016–2020, based on the predictive model.ConclusionBeijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups.

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Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038135 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. e038135

Author(s):

David Walsh ◽

Gerry McCartney ◽

Jon Minton ◽

Jane Parkinson ◽

Deborah Shipton ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Trend Analysis ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Secondary Outcome ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Relative Index ◽

Index Of Inequality ◽

The Uk

ObjectivesPreviously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail.DesignPopulation-based trend analysis.Participants/settingWhole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK.Primary and secondary outcome measuresEuropean age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981–2017), age group, sex and—for all countries and Scottish cities—deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities.ResultsChanges in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%–6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%–9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%–7%, 8%–12% and 1%–3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow).ConclusionsThe study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government ‘austerity’ measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.

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Sickle Cell Disease Mortality in California and Georgia 2004-2008

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood.v124.21.439.439 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 124 (21) ◽

pp. 439-439

Author(s):

Susan Paulukonis ◽

Todd Griffin ◽

Mei Zhou ◽

James R. Eckman ◽

Robert Hagar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

African American ◽

Cause Of Death ◽

Sickle Cell ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Age Group ◽

Death Certificates ◽

Underlying Causes ◽

Underlying Cause Of Death

Abstract On-going public health surveillance efforts in sickle cell disease (SCD) are critical for understanding the course and outcomes of this disease over time. Once nearly universally fatal by adolescence, many patients are living well into adulthood and sometimes into retirement years. Previous SCD mortality estimates have relied on data from death certificates alone or from deaths of patients receiving care in high volume hematology clinics, resulting in gaps in reporting and potentially biased conclusions. The Registry and Surveillance System for Hemoglobinopathies (RuSH) project collected and linked population-based surveillance data on SCD in California and Georgia from a variety of sources for years 2004-2008. These data sources included administrative records, newborn screening reports and health insurance claims as well as case reports of adult and pediatric patients receiving care in the following large specialty treatment centers: Georgia Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center, Georgia Regents University, Georgia Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center at Grady Health Systems and Children's Healthcare of Atlanta in Georgia, and Children's Hospital Los Angeles and UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital Oakland in California. Cases identified from these combined data sources were linked to death certificates in CA and GA for the same years. Among 12,143 identified SCD cases, 640 were linked to death certificates. Combined SCD mortality rates by age group at time of death are compared to combined mortality rates for all African Americans living in CA and GA. (Figure 1). SCD death rates among children up to age 14 and among adults 65 and older were very similar to those of the overall African American population. In contrast, death rates from young adulthood to midlife were substantially higher in the SCD population. Overall, only 55% of death certificates linked to the SCD cases had SCD listed in any of the cause of death fields. Thirty-four percent (CA) and 37% (GA) had SCD as the underlying cause of death. An additional 22% and 20% (CA and GA, respectively) had underlying causes of death that were not unexpected for SCD patients, including related infections such as septicemia, pulmonary/cardiac causes of death, renal failure and stroke. The remaining 44% (CA) and 43% (GA) had underlying causes of death that were either not related to SCD (e.g., malignancies, trauma) or too vague to be associated with SCD (e.g., generalized pulmonary or cardiac causes of death. Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by state, age group at death and whether the underlying cause of death was SCD specific, potentially related to SCD or not clearly related to SCD. While the number of deaths was too small to use for life expectancy calculations, there were more deaths over age 40 than under age 40 during this five year period. This effort represents a novel, population-based approach to examine mortality in SCD patients. These data suggest that the use of death certificates alone to identify deceased cases may not capture all-cause mortality among all SCD patients. Additional years of surveillance are needed to provide better estimates of current life expectancy and the ability to track and monitor changes in mortality over time. On-going surveillance of the SCD population is required to monitor changes in mortality and other outcomes in response to changes in treatments, standards of care and healthcare policy and inform advocacy efforts. This work was supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, cooperative agreement numbers U50DD000568 and U50DD001008. Figure 1: SCD-Specific & Overall African American Mortality Rates in CA and GA, 2004 – 2008. Figure 1:. SCD-Specific & Overall African American Mortality Rates in CA and GA, 2004 – 2008. Figure 2: Deaths (Count) Among Individuals with SCD in CA and GA, by Age Group and Underlying Cause of Death, 2004-2008 (N=615) Figure 2:. Deaths (Count) Among Individuals with SCD in CA and GA, by Age Group and Underlying Cause of Death, 2004-2008 (N=615) Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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Why are epilepsy mortality rates rising in the United States? A population-based multiple cause-of-death study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-035767 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. e035767

Author(s):

Christopher M DeGiorgio ◽

Ashley Curtis ◽

Armen Carapetian ◽

Dominic Hovsepian ◽

Anusha Krishnadasan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Disease ◽

Vascular Dementia ◽

Ischaemic Heart Disease ◽

Cause Of Death ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

The Usa ◽

Underlying Causes

IntroductionEpilepsy mortality rates are rising. It is unknown whether rates are rising due to an increase in epilepsy prevalence, changes in epilepsy causes of death, increase in the lethality or epilepsy or failures of treatment. To address these questions, we compare epilepsy mortality rates in the USA with all-cause and all-neurological mortality for the years 1999 to 2017.ObjectivesTo determine changes in US epilepsy mortality rates versus all-cause mortality, and to evaluate changes in the leading causes of death in people with epilepsy.DesignRetrospective population-based multiple cause-of-death study.Primary outcomeChange in age-adjusted epilepsy mortality rates compared with mortality rates for all-cause and all-neurological mortality.Secondary outcomeChanges in the leading causes of death in epilepsy.ResultsFrom 1999 to 2017, epilepsy mortality rates in the USA increased 98.8%, from 5.83 per million in 1999 to 11.59 per million (95% CI 88.2%–110.0%), while all-cause mortality declined 16.4% from 8756.34 per million to 7319.17 per million (95% CI 16.3% to 16.6%). For the same period, all-neurological mortality increased 80.8% from 309.21 to 558.97 per million (95% CI 79.4%–82.1%). The proportion of people with epilepsy who died due to neoplasms, vascular dementia and Alzheimer’s increased by 52.3%, 210.1% and 216.8%, respectively. During the same period, the proportion who died due to epilepsy declined 27.1%, while ischaemic heart disease as a cause of death fell 42.6% (p<0.001).ConclusionsEpilepsy mortality rates in the USA increased significantly from 1999 to 2017. Likely causes include increases in all-neurological mortality, increased epilepsy prevalence and changes in the underlying causes of death in epilepsy, led by increases in vascular dementia and Alzheimer’s. An important finding is that ischaemic heart disease and epilepsy itself are declining as underlying causes of death in people with epilepsy.

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Characterising violent deaths of undetermined intent: a population-based study, 1999–2012

Injury Prevention ◽

10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042376 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 24 (6) ◽

pp. 424-430 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

James Lachaud ◽

Peter Donnelly ◽

David Henry ◽

Kathy Kornas ◽

Tiffany Fitzpatrick ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Causes Of Death ◽

Census Data ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Vital Statistics ◽

Population Based Study ◽

Four Dimensions ◽

Undetermined Intent ◽

Risk Ratios ◽

Age And Sex

ObjectivesViolent deaths classified as undetermined intent (UD) are sometimes included in suicide counts. This study investigated age and sex differences, along with socioeconomic gradients in UD and suicide deaths in the province of Ontario between 1999 and 2012.MethodsWe used data from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, which has linked vital statistics from the Office of the Registrar General Deaths register with Census data between 1999 and 2012. Socioeconomic status was operationalised through the four dimensions of the Ontario Marginalization Index. We computed age-specific and annual age-standardised mortality rates, and risk ratios to calculate risk gradients according to each of the four dimensions of marginalization.ResultsRates of UD-classified deaths were highest for men aged 45–64 years residing in the most materially deprived (7.9 per 100 000 population (95% CI 6.8 to 9.0)) and residentially unstable (8.1 (95% CI 7.1 to 9.1)) neighbourhoods. Similarly, suicide rates were highest among these same groups of men aged 45–64 living in the most materially deprived (28.2 (95% CI 26.1 to 30.3)) and residentially unstable (30.7 (95% CI 28.7 to 32.6)) neighbourhoods. Relative to methods of death, poisoning was the most frequently used method in UD cases (64%), while it represented the second most common method (27%) among suicides after hanging (40%).DiscussionThe similarities observed between both causes of death suggest that at least a proportion of UD deaths may be misclassified suicide cases. However, the discrepancies identified in this analysis seem to indicate that not all UD deaths are misclassified suicides.

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Trends in mortality from external causes in the Republic of Seychelles between 1989 and 2018

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-79228-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Anne Abio ◽

Pascal Bovet ◽

Joachim Didon ◽

Till Bärnighausen ◽

Masood Ali Shaikh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Causes Of Death ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Marked Change ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Vital Statistics ◽

African Region ◽

Road Traffic Injuries ◽

External Causes ◽

Over Time

AbstractData on injury-related mortality are scarce in the African region. Mortality from external causes in the Seychelles was assessed, where all deaths are medically certified and the population is regularly enumerated. The four fields for underlying causes of death recorded were reviewed in the national vital statistics register. The age-standardised mortality rates were estimated (per 100,000 person-years) from external causes in 1989–1998, 1999–2008, and 2009–2018. Mortality rates per 100,000 person-years from external causes were 4–5 times higher among males than females, and decreased among males over the three 10-year periods (127.5, 101.4, 97.1) but not among females (26.9, 23.1, 26.9). The contribution of external causes to total mortality did not change markedly over time (males 11.6%, females 4.3% in 1989–2018). Apart from external deaths from undetermined causes (males 14.6, females 2.4) and “other unintentional injuries” (males 14.1, females 8.0), the leading external causes of death in 2009–2018 were drowning (25.9), road traffic injuries (18.0) and suicide (10.4) among males; and road traffic injuries (4.6), drowning (3.4) and poisoning (2.6) among females. Mortality from broad categories of external causes did not change consistently over time but rates of road traffic injuries increased among males. External causes contributed approximately 1 in 10 deaths among males and 1 in 20 among females, with no marked change in cause-specific rates over time, except for road traffic injuries. These findings emphasise the need for programs and policies in various sectors to address this large, but mostly avoidable health burden.

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Association between socioeconomic position and diabetic foot ulcer outcomes: a population-based cohort study in South Korea

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11406-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Jeong Hyun Ha ◽

Heejin Jin ◽

Ji-Ung Park

Keyword(s):

Prognostic Factors ◽

South Korea ◽

Socioeconomic Position ◽

Diabetic Foot ◽

Foot Ulcer ◽

Diabetic Foot Ulcer ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Population Based ◽

Adverse Outcomes ◽

Secondary Outcome

Abstract Background Low socioeconomic position (SEP) is associated with a high incidence of diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). However, reports on the association between SEP and DFU outcomes are limited. Therefore, in this study, we investigated this association and determined the prognostic factors of DFU outcomes. Methods The total cohort comprised 976,252 individuals. Using probability sampling, we randomly selected a sample of patients by reviewing the data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database of South Korea during 2011–2015. Residence, household income, and insurance type represented SEP. The primary outcome was amputation, and the secondary outcome was mortality. A multivariate model was applied to identify the predictive factors. Amputation-free survival and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Among 976,252 individuals in the cohort, 1362 had DFUs (mean age 62.9 ± 12.2 years; 42.9% were women). Overall amputation and mortality rates were 4.7 and 12.3%, respectively. Male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.41; p < 0.01), low SEP (HR 5.13, 5.13; p = 0.018), ophthalmopathy (HR, 1.89; p = 0.028), circulatory complications (HR, 2.14; p = 0.020), and institutional type (HR, 1.78; p = 0.044) were prognostic factors for amputation. Old age (HR, 1.06; p < 0.01), low SEP (HR, 2.65; p < 0.01), ophthalmopathy (HR, 1.74; p < 0.01), circulatory complications (HR, 1.71; p < 0.01), and institution type (HR 1.84; p < 0.01) were predictors of mortality. Conclusions DFU patients with a low SEP are strongly associated with increased amputation and mortality rates. Along with age and comorbidities, SEP could provide the basis for risk assessment of adverse outcomes in DFU. Providing targeted care for this population considering SEP may improve the prognosis.

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