Nomogram to assess survival benefit of new over historical agents as salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) in non-randomized trials.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e16012-e16012
Author(s):  
Guru Sonpavde ◽  
Gregory Russell Pond ◽  
Jonathan E. Rosenberg ◽  
Toni K. Choueiri ◽  
Joaquim Bellmunt ◽  
...  

e16012 Background: Surrogate endpoints of benefit in mUC phase 2 salvage therapy trials are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly for checkpoint inhibitors where response and progression-free survival are inadequate. We developed a nomogram using prognostic variables from phase 2 trials of historical agents to estimate 12 month survival to which observed survival in phase 2 trials could be compared. Methods: Data were obtained from phase 2 trials of salvage therapy for mUC for survival and 5 prognostic factors: hemoglobin, performance status, liver metastasis, treatment-free interval and albumin. Patients (pts) were randomly allotted to discovery:validation (DIS:VAL) datasets in a 2:1 ratio. A nomogram was developed for estimating 12-month survival. Calibration plots were constructed in the VAL dataset by plotting estimated vs. observed 12-mo survival and data bootstrapped to assess performance. The nomogram was applied to external nonrandomized salvage therapy data: 1) retrospective pemetrexed data or 2) trials of atezolizumab: PCD4989g and IMvigor210. Results: Data were available from 340 pts receiving sunitinib (n = 77), everolimus (n = 45), docetaxel + vandetanib or placebo (n = 109), pazopanib (n = 42), paclitaxel (n = 36) and docetaxel (n = 31). Calibration and prognostic ability of the model was acceptable (c-index = 0.634, 95% CI = 0.596-0.652). Observed 12-month survival for pts on pemetrexed (n = 127, 23.5% [95% CI: 16.2%-31.7%]) were similar to nomogram-predicted survival (19% [95% CI: 16.5-21.5], P> 0.05), while observed result with atezolizumab (n = 403, 39.0% [95% CI: 34.1-43.9]) exceeded predicted result (24.6% [95% CI: 23.4-25.8], P< 0.001). Conclusions: Atezolizumab was associated with a significantly longer 12-mo survival compared to nomogram-predicted survival while pemetrexed was not. This nomogram incorporates baseline prognostic factors to provide expected 12-mo survival of phase 2 patient cohorts with which to compare observed survival, providing a useful tool to quantify benefit in phase II studies while controlling the impact of clinical variables.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 346-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Russell Pond ◽  
Guru Sonpavde ◽  
Jonathan E. Rosenberg ◽  
Toni K. Choueiri ◽  
Joaquim Bellmunt ◽  
...  

346 Background: Early surrogate endpoints of benefit in mUC phase 2 salvage therapy trials are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly for checkpoint inhibitors where response and progression-free survival are inadequate. We developed a nomogram using prognostic variables from phase 2 trials of historical agents to estimate 12 month survival to which observed survival in single arm trials could be compared. Methods: Data were obtained from phase II trials of salvage therapy for mUC for survival and 5 prognostic factors: hemoglobin, performance status, liver metastasis, treatment-free interval and albumin. Patients (pts) were randomly allotted to discovery:validation (DIS:VAL) datasets in a 2:1 ratio. A nomogram was developed for estimating 12-month survival. Calibration plots were constructed in the VAL dataset by plotting estimated vs. observed 12-mo survival and data bootstrapped to assess performance. The nomogram was applied to external nonrandomized salvage therapy data: 1) retrospective pemetrexed data or 2) trials of atezolizumab: PCD4989g and IMvigor210. Results: Data were available from 340 pts receiving sunitinib (n = 77), everolimus (n = 45), docetaxel + vandetanib or placebo (n = 109), pazopanib (n = 42), paclitaxel (n = 36) and docetaxel (n = 31). Calibration and prognostic ability of the model was acceptable (c-index = 0.634, 95% CI = 0.596-0.652). Observed 12-month survival for pts on pemetrexed (n = 127, 23.5% [95% CI: 16.2%-31.7%]) were similar to nomogram-predicted survival (19% [95% CI: 16.5-21.5], P> 0.05), while observed result with atezolizumab (n = 403, 39.0% [95% CI: 34.1-43.9]) exceeded predicted result (24.6% [95% CI: 23.4-25.8], P< 0.001). Conclusions: Atezolizumab was associated with a significantly longer 12-mo survival compared to nomogram-predicted survival while pemetrexed was not. This nomogram incorporates baseline prognostic factors to provide expected 12-mo survival of phase 2 patient cohorts with which to compare observed survival, thereby providing a useful tool to quantify benefit in phase II studies while controlling for the impact of clinical variables.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 451-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Russell Pond ◽  
Guru Sonpavde ◽  
Matt D. Galsky ◽  
Padmanee Sharma ◽  
Jonathan E. Rosenberg ◽  
...  

451 Background: Intermediate endpoints of benefit in metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) nonrandomized trials are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly for checkpoint inhibitors, where response and progression-free survival remain suboptimal. We previously reported a nomogram (Pond GR et al, 2017 GU Cancers Symposium) using 5 prognostic factors (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥1, presence of liver metastasis, time from last treatment ≤3 months, and albumin < lower limit of normal) from phase 2 trials of historical agents (eg, taxanes) to estimate 12-month overall survival (OS), against which observed survival could be compared. Nivolumab was granted approval as salvage therapy for patients with mUC, based on the CheckMate (CM) 275 trial; it is thus of interest to compare the nivolumab observed survival versus nomogram-predicted survival results. Methods: Data were obtained from CM 275, including survival and all 5 prognostic factors. Nomogram points were calculated and the expected 12-month OS was estimated. Bootstrap analyses based on 2000 replications were used to estimate 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the median expected, observed, and difference between the expected and observed 12-month OS values. All tests were 2-sided, with statistical significance defined as P≤0.05. Results: Data were available from 270 patients from CM 275. Fifteen patients did not have albumin recorded and were excluded. Among the 255 evaluable patients, 46 (18.0%) patients had 0 adverse prognostic factors, 85 (33.3%) had 1, and 124 (48.6%) had 2 or more. The observed nivolumab 12-month OS from CM 275 (43.3% [95% CI, 37.0%-50.5%]) was 19.8% higher (95% CI, 13.6%-26.4%) when compared with the nomogram-predicted 12-month OS (23.5%; [95% CI, 22.5%-25.5%]) if patients received historical chemotherapy. Across all 2000 bootstrap samples, the observed nivolumab 12-month OS exceeded the nomogram-predicted 12-month OS. Conclusions: Nivolumab was associated with a significantly improved 12-month OS compared with historical chemotherapy based on the value predicted by the validated nomogram incorporating baseline prognostic factors. Clinical trial information: NCT02387996.


Immunotherapy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 587-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuan-zhang Huang ◽  
Peng Gao ◽  
Yong-xi Song ◽  
Jing-xu Sun ◽  
Xiao-wan Chen ◽  
...  

Aim: To evaluate the impact of age on the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in cancer patients. Materials & methods: The primary outcomes included overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Subgroup, meta-regression analysis and within-trial interaction HR were conducted. Results: A total of 34 studies containing 20,511 cancer patients were included. ICI could improve the OS and PFS in patient aged <65 and ≥65 years. Patients aged <75 years treated with ICI also had favorable OS and PFS compared with the control groups. Conclusion: ICI has comparable efficacy in cancer patients aged <65 and ≥65 years. Cancer patients aged ≥75 years need more attention in the future clinical trials.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 492-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna C. Bendell ◽  
Benjamin R. Tan ◽  
James Andrew Reeves ◽  
Henry Xiong ◽  
Bradley G. Somer ◽  
...  

492 Background: 3-drug chemotherapy (CT) + BEV (cFOLFOXIRI-BEV) significantly improved efficacy vs FOLFIRI-BEV for 1L mCRC tx, but safety and the impact of subsequent fluoropyrimidine-BEV maintenance tx require further definition. The phase 2 STEAM (NCT01765582) trial assessed efficacy of 1L cFOLFOXIRI-BEV vs FOLFOX-BEV and safety of alternating 2-drug CT (FOLFOX and FOLFIRI) + BEV tx monthly in a sequential sFOLFOXIRI-BEV regimen. Methods: Pts with unresectable, previously untreated mCRC were randomized 1:1:1 to BEV-containing (5 mg/kg) arms (cFOLFOXIRI, sFOLFOXIRI [alternating FOLFOX and FOLFIRI every 4 weeks {q4w}], or FOLFOX q3w) in a 4–6 month induction phase, followed by BEV-containing maintenance tx. Stratification factors included extent of metastatic disease and tumor location. Primary objectives: 1L ORR, 1L progression-free survival (PFS), safety. Secondary objectives: resection and conversion to resectable disease rates, time to 2L PFS, overall survival. ORR was tested with a 1-sided alpha of 5%; tx arms were compared with a stratified 1-sided Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test. PFS was analyzed descriptively. Results:Among 280 enrolled pts (median age, 57.5 yrs), 186 remainined in the study on July 1, 2015. Efficacy and safety are shown (see Table). Conclusion: While not statistically significant, there was a trend of increased ORR with cFOLFOXIRI-BEV vs FOLFOX-BEV in 1L mCRC tx. Analysis of PFS is ongoing. All 3 regimens were well tolerated. Clinical trial information: NCT01765582. [Table: see text]


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 747-747
Author(s):  
Timothy Jay Price ◽  
Lin Shen ◽  
Brigette Ma ◽  
Regina Esser ◽  
Wen-Feng Chen ◽  
...  

747 Background: In the RAS wt population of APEC, q2w cetuximab combined with 1L FOLFOX or FOLFIRI achieved a best confirmed overall response rate (BORR), median progression-free survival (PFS), and median overall survival (OS) similar to those reported in prior 1L pivotal studies involving weekly (qw) cetuximab. In this hypothesis-generating subgroup analysis, we evaluated the impact of TS in APEC study patients with RAS wt mCRC. Methods: APEC was a nonrandomized phase 2 trial conducted in the Asia-Pacific region, with BORR as the primary endpoint. Patients with KRAS exon 2 wt tumors received q2w cetuximab + investigator’s choice of FOLFOX or FOLFIRI; subsequent analyses considered patients who were RAS wt ( KRAS/ NRAS, exons 2-4). TS was categorized in evaluable patients with RAS wt tumors (left [L]-sided = splenic flexure, descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum; right [R]-sided = appendix, cecum, ascending colon, hepatic flexure, and transverse colon). Results: Among 167 patients with RAS wt mCRC, 159 were evaluable for TS; 130 (81.8%) had L-sided and 29 (18.2%) had R-sided mCRC. Baseline characteristics in the TS subgroups reflected the known differences between L- and R-sided mCRC. Efficacy data for the TS subgroups are summarized in the table. Conclusions: Consistent with prior 1L pivotal studies involving qw cetuximab, a prognostic effect of TS in patients receiving 1L q2w cetuximab was confirmed in APEC. BORR remained ≥50% in patients with R-sided mCRC, in line with prior evidence that use of cetuximab may be appropriate when tumor shrinkage/cytoreduction is the goal. These hypothesis-generating data also raise the possibility of synergy between cetuximab and, in particular, irinotecan for PFS and OS in patients with R-sided tumors, although numbers are small. Clinical trial information: NCT00778830. [Table: see text]


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 531-531
Author(s):  
David James Pinato ◽  
Ahmed Omar Kaseb ◽  
Yinghong Wang ◽  
Anwaar Saeed ◽  
David Szafron ◽  
...  

531 Background: The impact of corticosteroid treatment (CT) on the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is undefined. We evaluated whether CT administered at baseline (bCT) or concurrently to ICI (cCT) influences clinical outcomes of HCC patients treated with ICI. Methods: This retrospective, multi-center observational study was conducted across 9 tertiary academic referral centers collected 341 HCC patients who received ICI across 3 continents between January 1, 2016 and April 1, 2019. Outcome measures included overall (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) calculated from time of ICI commencement and overall response rates (ORR) defined by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (v1.1) on 6-8 weekly periodic restaging. Results: Of 331 eligible patients, 254 (76%) had BCLC-C stage HCC and received mostly PD(L)-1 ICI monotherapy (n=250, 85%). Median OS was 12.1 months (95%CI 9.2-15.0 months) and median PFS was 8.1 months (95%CI 6.3-10 months). In total 81 patients (24%) received >10 mg prednisone equivalent daily either as bCT (n=15, 4%) or cCT (n=66, 20%). Indications for CT included procedure/prophylaxis (n=37, 45%), management of irAE (n=31, 37%), cancer-related symptoms (n=5, 2%) or comorbidities (n=8, 3%). Neither overall CT, bCT nor cCT predicted for worse OS, PFS nor ORR in uni- and multi-variable analyses (p>0.05). CT for cancer-related indications predicted for shorter PFS (2.4 vs. 11.3 months, p=0.01), OS (4.5 vs. 12.8 months, p=0.05) and reduced ORR (p=0.03) compared to cancer-unrelated indications. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that neither bCT nor cCT appear to influence response and OS following ICI in HCC. Worse survival and ORR in CT recipients for cancer-related indications appears driven by the poor prognosis associated with symptomatic HCC.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuki Mukai ◽  
Yuichiro Hayashi ◽  
Izumi Koike ◽  
Toshiyuki Koizumi ◽  
Madoka Sugiura ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: We compared outcomes and toxicity between radiation therapy (RT) with concurrent retrograde super-selective intra-arterial chemotherapy (IACRT) and RT with concurrent systemic chemoradiotherapy (SCRT), for gingival carcinoma (GC). Methods: We included 84 consecutive patients who were treated for GC ≥ stage III, from 2006 to 2018, in this retrospective analysis (IACRT group: n=66; SCRT group: n=18).Results: Median follow-up time was 24 (range: 1–124) months. The median prescribed dose was 60 (6–70.2) Gy (IACRT group: 60 Gy; SCRT group:69 Gy). At 3 years, the two groups significantly differed in overall survival (OS; IACRT: 78.75%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 66.00–87.62; SCRT: 50.37%, 95% CI: 27.58–73.0; P = 0.039), progression-free survival (PFS; IACRT: 75.64%, 95% CI: 62.69–85.17; SCRT: 41.96%, 95% CI: 17.65–70.90; P = 0.028) and local control (LC; IACRT: 77.17%, 95% CI: 64.23–86.41; SCRT: 41.96%, 95% CI: 17.65–70.90; P = 0.015). In univariate analysis, age ≥ 65, decreased performance status (PS) and SCRT were significantly associated with worse outcomes (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥ 65 years, clinical stage IV, and SCRT were significantly correlated with poor OS (P < 0.05). Patients with poorer PS had significantly worse PFS.Conclusions: This is the first report to compare outcomes from IACRT and SCRT among patients with GC. IACRT is an effective and organ-preserving treatment for GC.Trial registration: retrospectively registered


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 9121-9121
Author(s):  
Joao Victor Machado Alessi ◽  
Biagio Ricciuti ◽  
Mizuki Nishino ◽  
Jason L. Weirather ◽  
Ann-Elisabeth Le ◽  
...  

9121 Background: Tumor-infiltrating immune cells and PD-L1 expression are associated with improved clinical outcomes in patients (pts) with NSCLC treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, as tumor-infiltrating immune cells are not a well-established biomarker for NSCLC, further data are needed to integrate and identify clinicopathological and genomic factors that influence the tumor microenvironment. Methods: We collected clinicopathologic and genomic data from pts with NSCLC who underwent multiplexed immunofluorescence. Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) was used to identify distinct immunophenotypic clusters according to the number of intratumoral PD-1+ immune cells (ICs), CD8+, and Foxp3+ T cells, as well as PD-L1 on tumor and immune cells. An unbiased recursive partitioning (URP) algorithm was used to investigate an optimal cluster with respect to objective response rate (ORR) in the subset of pts treated with ICIs. Results: Among 304 pts, UMAP identified 5 clusters: PD-L1-high with high vs low CD8+ and PD-1+ ICs (clusters A & B, respectively); PD-L1-low with high vs low CD8+ and PD-1+ ICs (clusters C & D respectively); PD-L1-low and moderate levels of CD8+ and PD-1+ ICs (cluster E). Clinicopathological characteristics of the clusters shown in Table. URP analysis identified immune rich clusters A and C as optimal responders to ICIs. From the start of ICIs, we observed a significantly higher ORR (53.3% vs 4.3%; P<0.001), a significantly longer median progression-free survival (mPFS 25.6 vs 3.7 months; HR: 0.12 [95% CI: 0.05-0.32]; P<0.001), and longer median overall survival (mOS 45.1 vs 22.3 months; HR: 0.25 [95% CI: 0.1-0.68]; P=0.006) in clusters A + C (N=15) vs other clusters (N=23). After adjusting for other variables such as performance status, histology, presence of oncogenic driver mutation, and line of treatment, clusters A + C were significantly associated with improved mPFS (HR: 0.08 [95% CI: 0.03-0.24], P<0.001) and mOS (HR: 0.11 [95% CI: 0.03-0.40], P<0.001). Conclusions: Incorporation of multiplex immunofluorescence may improve prediction of response and resistance to immunotherapy in NSCLC.[Table: see text]


Liver Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Francesco Tovoli ◽  
Vincenzo Dadduzio ◽  
Stefania De Lorenzo ◽  
Lorenza Rimassa ◽  
Gianluca Masi ◽  
...  

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Cabozantinib has been approved by the European Medicine Agency (EMA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) previously treated with sorafenib. Cabozantinib is also being tested in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors in the frontline setting. Real-life clinical data of cabozantinib for HCC are still lacking. Moreover, the prognostic factors for HCC treated with cabozantinib have not been investigated. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We evaluated clinical data and outcome of HCC patients who received cabozantinib in the legal context of named patient use in Italy. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Ninety-six patients from 15 centres received cabozantinib. All patients had preserved liver function (Child-Pugh A), mostly with an advanced HCC (77.1%) in a third-line setting (75.0%). The prevalence of performance status (PS) &#x3e; 0, macrovascular invasion (MVI), extrahepatic spread, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) &#x3e;400 ng/mL was 50.0, 30.2, 67.7, and 44.8%, respectively. Median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were 12.1 (95% confidence interval 9.4–14.8) and 5.1 (3.3–6.9) months, respectively. Most common treatment-related adverse events (AEs) were fatigue (67.7%), diarrhoea (54.2%), anorexia (45.8%), HFSR (43.8%), weight loss (24.0%), and hypertension (24.0%). Most common treatment-related Grade 3–4 AEs were fatigue (6.3%), HFSR (6.3%), and increased aminotransferases (6.3%). MVI, ECOG-PS &#x3e; 0, and AFP &#x3e;400 ng/mL predicted a worse OS. Discontinuation for intolerance and no new extrahepatic lesions at the progression were associated with better outcomes. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> In a real-life Western scenario (mostly in a third-line setting), cabozantinib efficacy and safety data were comparable with those reported in its registration trial. Data regarding the prognostic factors might help in patient selection and design of clinical trials.


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