Germline polymorphisms in genes maintaining replication fork to predict the efficacy of oxaliplatin and irinotecan in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients enrolled in MAVERICC trial.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 3139-3139
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Arai ◽  
Yi Xiao ◽  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Francesca Battaglin ◽  
Natsuko Kawanishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Value ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Dna Lesions ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Replication Forks ◽  
Univariable Analysis ◽  
Snp Interaction

3139 Background: Protection of replication forks is critical for the survival of cancer cells. Chemotherapeutic drugs such as oxaliplatin and irinotecan can impede the progression of replication forks by inducing DNA lesions, which cause fork collapse and generate double-strand breaks. We hypothesized that functional genetic variants in genes involved in the maintenance of replication forks may predict the efficacy of cytotoxic drugs in mCRC patients. Methods: We analyzed genomic and clinical data from MAVERICC, a phase II trial which compared mFOLFOX6 and FOLFIRI in combination with bevacizumab in untreated mCRC patients. Genomic DNA extracted from blood samples was genotyped using an OncoArray (Illumina, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA). Candidate six missense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) ( SLFN11 rs9898983, SLFN11 rs12453150, RPA1 rs5030749, MCM3 rs2230240, TIMELESS rs2291739, and TIMELESS rs774047) were tested for association with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), using Cox proportional hazards model. To confirm the predictive value, the treatment-by-SNP interaction was tested. Results: A total of 324 patients were available for the SNP analyses (mFOLFOX6 plus bevacizumab arm [OHP arm]: n = 161; FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab arm [IRI arm]: n = 163). In the OHP arm, univariable analysis showed a significantly better PFS in patients with G/G genotype of TIMELESS rs2291739 compared to those with any A allele, and in patients with T/T genotype of TIMELESS rs774047 compared to those with any C allele. However, neither of these SNP’s associations were confirmed by multivariable analysis: TIMELESS rs2291739 (any A allele vs G/G, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.31–1.17, p = 0.12) and TIMELESS rs774047 (any C allele vs T/T, HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.41–1.36, p = 0.33). In the IRI arm, univariable analysis showed a significantly worse OS in patients with G/G genotype of TIMELESS rs2291739 compared to those with any A allele, and in patients with T/T genotype of TIMELESS rs774047 compared to those with any C allele. Multivariable analysis confirmed the significant associations in these SNPs: TIMELESS rs2291739 (any A allele vs G/G, HR = 3.06, 95% CI = 1.49–6.25, p < 0.01) and TIMELESS rs774047 (any C allele vs T/T, HR = 2.95, 95% CI = 1.43–6.08, p < 0.01). Treatment-by-SNP interaction test confirmed the significant predictive value of both SNPs, both on PFS and OS. Conclusions: Germline polymorphisms in the TIMELESS gene involved in the protection of replication forks may predict efficacy of oxaliplatin and irinotecan in mCRC patients. Our novel findings warrant further validation studies.

scholarly journals Is there a measurable association of epidural use at cystectomy and postoperative outcomes? A population-based study

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 321 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Christopher Doiron ◽  
Melanie Jaeger ◽  
Christopher M. Booth ◽  
Xuejiao Wei ◽  
D. Robert Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Provider Volume

Introduction: Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) is commonly used to manage postoperative pain and facilitate early mobilization after major intra-abdominal surgery. Evidence also suggests that regional anesthesia/analgesia may be associated with improved survival after cancer surgery. Here, we describe factors associated with TEA at the time of radical cystectomy (RC) for bladder cancer and its association with both short- and long-term outcomes in routine clinical practice.Methods: All patients undergoing RC in the province of Ontario between 2004 and 2008 were identified using the Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR). Modified Poisson regression was used to describe factors associated with epidural use, while a Cox proportional hazards model describes associations between survival and TEA use.Results: Over the five-year study period, 1628 patients were identified as receiving RC, 54% (n=887) of whom received TEA. Greater anesthesiologist volume (lowest volume providers relative risk [RR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75‒0.96) and male sex (female sex RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.79‒0.99) were independently associated with greater use of TEA. TEA use was not associated with improved short-term outcomes. In multivariable analysis, TEA was not associated with cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02, 95% CI 0.87‒1.19; p=0.804) or overall survival (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.80‒1.03; p=0.136).Conclusions: In routine clinical practice, 54% of RC patients received TEA and its use was associated with anesthesiologist provider volume. After controlling for patient, disease and provider variables, we were unable to demonstrate any effect on either short- or long-term outcomes at the time of RC.

Clinical features and outcomes of secondary somatic malignancy (SSM) arising from teratoma in late relapse germ cell tumor (GCT).

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 518-518
Author(s):  
Nathan Colin Wong ◽  
Shawn Dason ◽  
Lucas W. Dean ◽  
Sumit Isharwal ◽  
Mark Donoghue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Median Time ◽  
Surgical Resection ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Late Relapse ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

518 Background: Late relapse (>2 years) GCT is associated with an increased rate of SSM. We report our experience with SSM in the setting of late relapse and determine predictors of overall survival (OS). Methods: From 1985 to 2018, 46 patients with GCT and SSM at late relapse were identified. Clinical and pathologic parameters were reviewed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS from time of relapse and a Cox proportional hazards model to assess predictors of OS. Results: Of 46 men (44 testicular primary, 2 mediastinal primary), median time to late relapse with SSM was 10.4 years (range, 2.3 - 38.1). Most (n=27, 59%) were symptomatic at presentation but 11 were detected by elevated tumor markers (AFP 8, HCG 2, both 1) and 8 by surveillance imaging. SSMs were adenocarcinoma (25), sarcoma (14), poorly differentiated neoplasm (3), Wilms (2), PNET (1) and glioma (1). Median time to relapse was longer for adenocarcinoma vs other histotypes of SSM (14.6 vs 4.1 years, p < 0.001). The initial site of relapse was the retroperitoneum (RP, 26), pelvis (7), lung (6), retrocrural space (3), mediastinum (2), neck (1) and duodenum (1). Only 10 of 26 men with late relapse in the RP had undergone prior RPLND (all at outside institutions; variable templates) with histology in 7/10 showing teratoma. The other 16 men had received chemotherapy only (8), orchiectomy only for stage I (3), RPLND aborted due to cardiac arrest (1), and unknown (4). All 46 late relapses were managed with surgical resection; 26 also received chemotherapy (16 SSM-directed, 10 GCT-directed). Overall, 12 patients died and the median OS was 14.2 years. On univariable analysis, symptomatic presentation (HR = 3.1), SSM at multiple sites (HR = 3.9), extra-RP disease (HR: 3.9), and incomplete/no resection of SSM (HR = 3.6) predicted mortality. On multivariable analysis, only extra-RP disease was independently associated with inferior OS (5-year OS, 82 vs 52%, p = 0.017). Conclusions: SSM is an important potential complication of late relapse GCT and seems to be associated with the lack of resection of retroperitoneal metastases. Early identification and complete surgical resection prior to SSM arising in extra-RP sites is critical to optimizing outcomes.

scholarly journals External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4286
Author(s):  
Pui-Lam Yip ◽  
Shing-Fung Lee ◽  
Cheuk-Wai Horace Choi ◽  
Po-Chung Sunny Chan ◽  
Ka-Wai Alice Cheung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Concurrent Chemoradiation ◽  
Clinical Parameters ◽  
Concordance Index

A nomogram was recently published by Sun et al. to predict overall survival (OS) and the additional benefit of concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy (RT) alone, in stage II NPC treated with conventional RT. We aimed to assess the predictors of OS and to externally validate the nomogram in the IMRT era. We analyzed stage II NPC patients treated with definitive RT alone or CCRT between 2001 and 2011 under the territory-wide Hong Kong NPC Study Group 1301 study. Clinical parameters were studied using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate OS. The nomogram by Sun et al. was applied with 1000 times bootstrap resampling to calculate the concordance index, and we compared the nomogram predicted and observed 5-year OS. There were 482 patients included. The 5-year OS was 89.0%. In the multivariable analysis, an age > 45 years was the only significant predictor of OS (HR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.15–3.44). Other clinical parameters were insignificant, including the use of CCRT (HR, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.62–1.58). The nomogram yielded a concordance index of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49–0.62) which lacked clinically meaningful discriminative power. The nomogram proposed by Sun et al. should be interpreted with caution when applied to stage II NPC patients in the IMRT era. The benefit of CCRT remained controversial.

Association of radiation therapy with overall survival in patients undergoing surgery for T3N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the rectum.

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 528-528
Author(s):  
David Mitchell Marcus ◽  
Dana Nickleach ◽  
Bassel F. El-Rayes ◽  
Jerome Carl Landry
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Radiation Therapy ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Locally Advanced ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Entire Cohort ◽  
The Impact

528 Background: The standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer is neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery, but many physicians question the benefit of multimodality therapy in patients with stage T3N0M0 disease. We aimed to determine the impact of radiation therapy (RT) on overall survival (OS) in this group of patients. Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to identify patients undergoing surgery for T3N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the rectum from 2004 to 2010. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS for patients receiving RT vs. no RT, along with for pre-op vs. post-op RT among patients that received RT. Multivariable analysis (MVA) using a Cox proportional hazards model was performed to assess the association of RT with OS after adjusting for patient age, gender, race, tumor grade, carcinoembryonic antigen, type of surgery, and circumferential margin status. The analysis was repeated separately on patients that underwent total colectomy (TC) vs. sphincter-sparing surgery. Results: The cohort included 8,679 patients, including 4,705 who received RT and 3,974 who did not. Median age was 66 years. Five year OS was 76.5% in patients who received RT, compared to 60.0% in patients who did not receive RT (p <0.001). Five year OS was 76.9% for patients receiving pre-op RT vs. 75.7% in patients receiving post-op RT (p = 0.247). In patients undergoing TC, five year OS was 74.7% for patients receiving RT, compared to 47.5% in patients not receiving RT (p <0.001). In patients undergoing sphincter-sparing surgery, five year OS was 77.7% in patients receiving RT, compared to 62.9% in patients not receiving RT (p <0.001). Use of RT was significantly associated with OS on MVA, both in the entire cohort (HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.60-0.81]; p<0.001) and in subsets of patients undergoing TC (HR 0.55 [95% CI 0.38-0.79]; p=0.001) and sphincter-sparing surgery (HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.59-0.84]; p<0.001). Conclusions: The use of RT is associated with superior OS in patients undergoing surgery for T3N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the rectum. This benefit is demonstrated in both the pre-op and post-op settings and applies to patients undergoing both TC and sphincter-sparing surgery.

Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a prognostic factor in biliary tract cancer (BTC).

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4130-4130
Author(s):  
Mairead Geraldine McNamara ◽  
Arnoud J. Templeton ◽  
Manjula Maganti ◽  
Thomas Walter ◽  
Anne M Horgan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Inflammatory Marker ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Tract Cancer

4130 Background: BTCs include intrahepatic (IHC), hilar, distal bile duct (DBD), and gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). Risk factors include conditions associated with chronic inflammation. NLR, an inflammatory marker, is prognostic in several cancers but has not been reviewed in large BTC series, hilar or GBC. Methods: Baseline demographics and NLR at diagnosis were evaluated in 864 patients (pts) with BTC from 01/87 - 12/12 treated at Princess Margaret Cancer Center. Their prognostic significance for overall survival (OS) was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: High NLR ≥3.0 was associated with poor survival using univariable analysis as was stage/site of primary (P<0.05), age >65yrs, lymphocytes ≤1.6 (P<0.01), neutrophils ≥5.0, platelets ≥280, hemoglobin (Hb) < 110 g/L (P<0.001). Median OS in pts with NLR<3.0 was 21.6 mo, 12.0 mo with NLR ≥3.0 (P<0.001). NLR retained its significance as a prognostic marker on multivariable analysis (Table), along with GBC (P<0.05), age>65yrs, DBD primary (P<0.01), stage and Hb <110g/L (P<0.001). NLR was prognostic for OS on multivariable analysis for hilar: overall (Table) and advanced grp (n=102) (HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.07-2.64, P<0.05) and in advanced DBD (n=102) (HR 1.63, 95%CI 1.03-2.57,P<0.05). On subgrp analysis, NLR was prognostic for OS in advanced BTC (ABTC) (n=538) (P<0.01) but not in surgical grp. NLR did not predict RECIST response to first line palliative chemotherapy in ABTC. Conclusions: Baseline NLR is prognostic in BTC, specifically ABTC and hilar subgrp, suggesting the importance of systemic inflammation influencing outcome in pts with ABTC, thus providing a simple inexpensive prognostic biomarker while also possibly identifying pts that may benefit from antiinflammatory mediation. NLR was not predictive for response in BTC. [Table: see text]

The role of adjuvant therapy after R0 resection for patients with intrahepatic and perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 302-302
Author(s):  
Young Saing Kim ◽  
Inkeun Park ◽  
Sung Yong Oh ◽  
Se-Il Go ◽  
Jung Hun Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lymph Node ◽  
Adjuvant Therapy ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
R0 Resection ◽  
Node Positive

302 Background: There is still debated regarding the optimal treatment strategy in cholangiocarcinoma (CC) after curative resection. The aim of this study was to analyze the role of adjuvant therapy in R0-resected intrahepatic and perihilar CC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent R0 resection for intrahepatic and perihilar CC between January 2001 and December 2013 at six cancer centers. Adjuvant therapy consisted of chemotherapy (CT), chemoradiotherapy (CRT), or radiotherapy (RT). The outcomes of our study were recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify prognostic factors for survival. Results: A total of 137 patients were included in the analysis; 58.4% of patients had intrahepatic CC and 25.5% had lymph node involvement. Seventy-three patients (53.3%) received adjuvant therapy (CT/CRT/RT: 48/13/12, respectively). A greater percentage of patients receiving adjuvant therapy had stage III-IVA (P = 0.010), high histologic grade (P = 0.035), and positive lymph nodes (P = 0.088). Multivariable analysis identified positive nodes (hazard ratio (HR), 3.60; P < 0.001), poor tumor differentiation (HR, 2.35, P = 0.048), and high baseline CA 19-9 level (HR, 1.97; P = 0.013) as predictors of decreased OS. The effect of adjuvant therapy varied according to the treatment modality. Adjuvant CRT was significantly associated with longer RFS (HR, 0.44; P = 0.036) but OS benefit was non-significant HR, 0.56; P = 0.245). In node-positive patients, CRT had a trend for longer OS (HR, 0.24; P = 0.097). In contrast, CT did not improve RFS (HR, 1.13; P = 0.617) or OS (HR, 1.70; P = 0.114). RT alone was associated shorter RFS (HR 3.08; P = 0.009) and OS (HR, 6.86, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Adjuvant CT and RT were not associated with a survival advantage in R0-resected intrahepatic and perihilar CC. CRT appears to be appropriate treatment after complete resection especially in lymph node-positive patients.

Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuan-Ying Lee ◽  
Chung-Yi Li ◽  
Kun-Chia Chang ◽  
Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽  
Ying-Yeh Chen
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Birth Registry ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parental Suicide ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-­based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

Proliferation-dominant high-grade astrocytoma: survival benefit associated with extensive resection of FLAIR abnormality region

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 998-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haihui Jiang ◽  
Yong Cui ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Ren ◽  
Mingxiao Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Benefit ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Extent Of Resection ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Extensive Resection ◽  
High Grade Astrocytoma

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.

scholarly journals Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Morne Joubert ◽  
Tanja Verster ◽  
Helgard Raubenheimer ◽  
Willem D. Schutte
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Curve ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

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