Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1047-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Botond Kőszegi ◽  
Matthew Rabin

We use Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006) model of reference-dependent utility, and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences, to study preferences over monetary risk. Because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes, it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest-scale risk. It replicates “classical” prospect theory—including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses—when exposure to risk is a surprise, but implies first-order risk aversion when a risk, and the possibility of insuring it, are anticipated. A prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk. For large-scale risk, the model allows for standard “consumption utility” to dominate reference-dependent “gain-loss utility,” generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations. (JEL D81)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Pfeifer

Abstract This research note uses two German datasets - the large-scale German Socioeconomic Panel and unique data from own student questionnaires - to analyse the relationship between risk aversion and the choice for public sector employment. Main results are (1) more risk-averse individuals sort into public sector employment, (2) the impact of career-specific and unemployment risk attitudes is larger than the impact of general risk attitudes and (3) risk taking is rewarded with higher wages in the private but not in the public sector.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rattaphon Wuthisatian ◽  
Federico Guerrero ◽  
James Sundali

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to suggest that a fundamental cause of market booms and busts is that investor risk attitudes change during market booms. Specifically, the authors propose that an investor’s risk aversion falls as (s)he attempts to “keep up with the Joneses.” This paper studies changing risk attitudes induced by social interactions, and shows that risk-seeking behavior that is initially successful may induce copycat behavior and lead individuals in the same peer group to reduce their degree of risk aversion to attempt to obtain similar rewards, a phenomenon we call “Gain attraction in the presence of social interactions.” Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a new theoretical model that incorporates the social interaction term into the value function of prospect theory. The modified value function empowers the standard prospect theory by introducing the idea that people often compare themselves to others and then compare their gains to the gains of others. The model predicts that, if people exhibit some degree of envy, they will treat the observed utility achieved by others as destination points and will reposition themselves to the new reference points, and at that point their willingness to accept risk dramatically increases. Findings The theoretical model is tested empirically against experimental data and survey data. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, the experimental results suggest that, after subjects observed the behavior of the leading investor in the controlled laboratory condition, there was a significant increase in risk-taking behavior. The survey results further confirm that envy is an emotional force behind the dissatisfaction and disappointment among investors when they miss available opportunities that others were able to take advantage of. Originality/value This study provides evidence that investment decisions are not made in a social vacuum by isolated individuals, but rather in social settings in which individuals are influenced by the actions and outcomes of their peers. The study also opens up a new research avenue that the reduction in risk aversion induced by peer effects may be an important element explaining how greed is transmitted across the economy during times of financial boom, thus helping to fuel the flames of financial crises.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


Author(s):  
Osama Abdelkarim ◽  
Julian Fritsch ◽  
Darko Jekauc ◽  
Klaus Bös

Physical fitness is an indicator for children’s public health status. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the construct validity and the criterion-related validity of the German motor test (GMT) in Egyptian schoolchildren. A cross-sectional study was conducted with a total of 931 children aged 6 to 11 years (age: 9.1 ± 1.7 years) with 484 (52%) males and 447 (48%) females in grades one to five in Assiut city. The children’s physical fitness data were collected using GMT. GMT is designed to measure five health-related physical fitness components including speed, strength, coordination, endurance, and flexibility of children aged 6 to 18 years. The anthropometric data were collected based on three indicators: body height, body weight, and BMI. A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted with IBM SPSS AMOS 26.0 using full-information maximum likelihood. The results indicated an adequate fit (χ2 = 112.3, df = 20; p < 0.01; CFI = 0.956; RMSEA = 0.07). The χ2-statistic showed significant results, and the values for CFI and RMSEA showed a good fit. All loadings of the manifest variables on the first-order latent factors as well as loadings of the first-order latent factors on the second-order superordinate factor were significant. The results also showed strong construct validity in the components of conditioning abilities and moderate construct validity in the components of coordinative abilities. GMT proved to be a valid method and could be widely used on large-scale studies for health-related fitness monitoring in the Egyptian population.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zong-Gang Mou ◽  
Paul M. Saffin ◽  
Anders Tranberg

Abstract We perform large-scale real-time simulations of a bubble wall sweeping through an out-of-equilibrium plasma. The scenario we have in mind is the electroweak phase transition, which may be first order in extensions of the Standard Model, and produce such bubbles. The process may be responsible for baryogenesis and can generate a background of primordial cosmological gravitational waves. We study thermodynamic features of the plasma near the advancing wall, the generation of Chern-Simons number/Higgs winding number and consider the potential for CP-violation at the wall generating a baryon asymmetry. A number of technical details necessary for a proper numerical implementation are developed.


Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Haixia Wu ◽  
Hantao Hao ◽  
Hongzhen Lei ◽  
Yan Ge ◽  
Hengtong Shi ◽  
...  

The excessive use of fertilizer has resulted in serious environmental degradation and a high health cost in China. Understanding the reasons for the overuse of fertilizer is critical to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture, and large-scale operation is considered as one of the measures to deal with the excessive fertilizer use. Under the premise of fully considering the resource endowment and heterogeneity of large-scale farmers and small-scale farmers in production and management, different production decision-making frameworks were constructed. Based on the 300 large-scale farmers and 480 small-scale farmers in eight provinces of northern China wheat region, we analyzed the optimal fertilizer use amount and its deviation as well as the influencing factors of small-scale and large-scale farmers, then further clarified whether the development of scale management could solve the problem of excessive fertilizer use. The empirical results show that: (1) both small-scale farmers and large-scale farmers deviated from the optimal fertilizer application amount, where the deviation degree of optimal fertilizer application of small-scale farmers is significantly higher than that of large-scale farmers, with a deviation degree of 35.43% and 23.69% for small and large scale farmers, respectively; (2) not all wheat growers in North China had the problem of excessive use of chemical fertilizer, as the optimal level of chemical fertilizer application in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are 346.5 kgha−1 and 335.25 kgha−1, while the actual fertilizer use amount was 337.2 kgha−1 and 324.6 kgha−1, respectively; and (3) the higher the risk aversion level, farmers tended to apply more fertilizer to ensure grain output. Therefore, increasing farm size should be integrated into actions such as improving technological innovation and providing better information transfer to achieve the goal of zero-increase in Chinese fertilizer use.


2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 208-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Schmidt ◽  
Horst Zank

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2357-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.


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