scholarly journals Employment, Wages, and Voter Turnout

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 111-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerwin Kofi Charles ◽  
Melvin Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
County Level ◽  
Labor Market Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Media Usage ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Level Data

Using county-level data across several decades, and various OLS and TSLS models, we find that higher local wages and employment lower turnout in elections for governor, senator, US Congress and state House of Representatives, but have no effect on presidential turnout. We also find that the share of people voting in one election but not in another on the same ballot increases as local labor market conditions improve. We argue that these results are most consistent with information-based models of voting, and use individual level panel data to show that increased employment lowers media usage and political knowledge. (JEL D72, D83, J22, J31, R23)

scholarly journals Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 160-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Fujiwara ◽  
Kyle Meng ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Habit Formation ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Social Spillovers ◽  
Consumption Value

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. (JEL D72, D83, N42)

Self-employment and Civic Inclination

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 719-737
Author(s):  
F. Carson Mencken ◽  
Bethany Smith ◽  
Charles M. Tolbert
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Political Activism ◽  
The Self ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
County Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Building Community

We test whether the self-employed have higher levels of civic inclination (trust, political activism, community closeness, community participation) compared to workers from the private sector. We examine the civic inclinations of the self-employed with two national cross-sectional data sets. We use a variety of discrete and continuous regression models. We find that the self-employed have higher levels of political activism, feel closer to neighbors and family, and have greater odds of engaging to solve community problems. We fail to detect differences in donating money, attending community events, and closeness to friends. Previous research has concluded with county-level data that the self-employed are important actors in building community and creating social capital. Our results add to this literature by showing that the self-employed have higher levels of civic inclination with individual-level data. Implications for theory and research are discussed.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

scholarly journals Health and Voting in Rural America

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie A. Cahill ◽  
Christopher Ojeda
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Important Variation ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Rural Places ◽  
The Impact

This research explores the impact of health on voter turnout, with the goal of uncovering important variation in dynamics across rural communities. Drawing on the results of county and individual-level analyses, including novel survey data from an Appalachian community, this study finds that health matters less for rural voters. Models using county-level data indicate that poor health is significantly and negatively related to voter turnout across counties, even when controlling for educational attainment, poverty, diversity, and political competition. However, health loses its explanatory power in rural counties once a control for religiosity is introduced. Health is also a less important predictor in rural places where there is a high cost of voting, a finding counter to the notion that high costs would uniformly amplify the negative effects of health disparities. Models using individual-level data provide support for many of these findings, while also generating new insights into the complexity of rural political behavior. Overall, this study suggests that place has an important role in understanding the engagement of American voters.

scholarly journals County-level recruitment in online samples: Applications to COVID-19 and beyond

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leib Litman ◽  
Robert Hartman ◽  
Shalom Noach Jaffe ◽  
Jonathan Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The Self ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
County Level ◽  
Sampling Methodology ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Present Effort

Thousands of readily downloadable county-level data sets offer untapped potential for linking geo-social influences to individual-level human behavior. In this study we describe a methodology for county-level sampling of online participants, allowing us to link the self-reported behavior of N = 1084 online respondents to contemporaneous county-level data on COVID-19 infection rate density. Using this approach, we show that infection rate density predicts person-level self-reported face mask wearing beyond multiple other demographic and attitudinal covariates. Using the present effort as a demonstration project, we describe the underlying sampling methodology and discuss the wider range of potential applications.

Smartphones and Their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2019 ◽  
pp. 1203-1223
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

Smartphones and their Increased Importance in U.S. Presidential Elections

2017 ◽  
pp. 283-303
Author(s):  
Ramona Sue McNeal ◽  
Mary Schmeida ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Political Discussion ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Early researchers had predicted that the Internet might help to encourage political participation through its ability to make political information more accessible. Unfortunately, disparities in Internet access made it unlikely that the Internet would have much of an impact on voter turnout. Telecommunication technology has evolved and among these new advances is smartphones, which help to increase Internet access. The purpose of this chapter is to examine this argument by exploring the relationship between smartphone ownership and voting. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data from the 2012 American National Election Studies. Findings suggest that smartphones are helping to increase voter turnout through their ability to facilitate other online activities such as visiting candidate websites and taking part in political discussion through social networking sites.

scholarly journals Comparisons of individual- and area-level socioeconomic status as proxies for individual-level measures: evidence from the Mortality Disparities in American Communities study

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Moss ◽  
Norman J. Johnson ◽  
Mandi Yu ◽  
Sean F. Altekruse ◽  
Kathleen A. Cronin
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Census Tract ◽  
Household Income ◽  
County Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Census Tract Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mortality Disparities ◽  
Household Incomes

Abstract Background Area-level measures are often used to approximate socioeconomic status (SES) when individual-level data are not available. However, no national studies have examined the validity of these measures in approximating individual-level SES. Methods Data came from ~ 3,471,000 participants in the Mortality Disparities in American Communities study, which links data from 2008 American Community Survey to National Death Index (through 2015). We calculated correlations, specificity, sensitivity, and odds ratios to summarize the concordance between individual-, census tract-, and county-level SES indicators (e.g., household income, college degree, unemployment). We estimated the association between each SES measure and mortality to illustrate the implications of misclassification for estimates of the SES-mortality association. Results Participants with high individual-level SES were more likely than other participants to live in high-SES areas. For example, individuals with high household incomes were more likely to live in census tracts (r = 0.232; odds ratio [OR] = 2.284) or counties (r = 0.157; OR = 1.325) whose median household income was above the US median. Across indicators, mortality was higher among low-SES groups (all p < .0001). Compared to county-level, census tract-level measures more closely approximated individual-level associations with mortality. Conclusions Moderate agreement emerged among binary indicators of SES across individual, census tract, and county levels, with increased precision for census tract compared to county measures when approximating individual-level values. When area level measures were used as proxies for individual SES, the SES-mortality associations were systematically underestimated. Studies using area-level SES proxies should use caution when selecting, analyzing, and interpreting associations with health outcomes.

Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER R. MEBANE ◽  
JASJEET S. SEKHON
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
Election Studies

Eligible voters have been coordinating their turnout and vote decisions for the House of Representatives in midterm elections. Coordination is a noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium. Stochastic choice models estimated using individual-level data from U.S. National Election Studies surveys of the years 1978–1998 support the coordinating model and reject a nonstrategic model. The coordinating model shows that many voters have incentives to change their votes between the presidential year and midterm after learning the outcome of the presidential election. But this mechanism alone does not explain the size of midterm cycles. The largest source of loss of support for the president's party at midterm is a regular pattern in which the median differences between the voters' ideal points and the parties' policy positions have become less favorable for the president's party than they were at the time of the presidential election (nonvoters show the same pattern). The interelection changes are not consistent with the theory of surge and decline.

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