Natural “Natural Experiments” in Economics

2000 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 827-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R Rosenzweig ◽  
Kenneth I Wolpin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Empirical Knowledge ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Simple Economic

The recent literature exploiting natural events as “natural experiment” instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge. A weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral, market, and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent. The methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions.

Corruption

2019 ◽  
pp. 603-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toke Aidt
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Preferential Treatment ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Special Means ◽  
Cross Country

Corruption, understood as a special means by which private agents may seek to pursue their interest in competition for preferential treatment by government officials or politicians and where the “means” are valued by the recipient, is viewed by most social scientists as a major obstacle to economic, political, and social development and a source of inefficiency. This chapter presents a framework and taxonomy for the study of corruption. Within this framework, corruption is conceptualized as a particular instance of the more general social phenomena we call influence-seeking activities. The chapter provides an overview of theoretical models of corruption, summarizes cross-country evidence on the causes and consequences of corruption, and evaluates the recent literature on laboratory, field, and quasi-natural experiments.

scholarly journals Built environment changes and active transport to school among adolescents: BEATS Natural Experiment Study protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. e034899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Mandic ◽  
Debbie Hopkins ◽  
Enrique García Bengoechea ◽  
Antoni Moore ◽  
Susan Sandretto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Active Transport ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
Social Environmental ◽  
Randomised Controlled

IntroductionNatural experiments are considered a priority for examining causal associations between the built environment (BE) and physical activity (PA) because the randomised controlled trial design is rarely feasible. Few natural experiments have examined the effects of walking and cycling infrastructure on PA and active transport in adults, and none have examined the effects of such changes on PA and active transport to school among adolescents. We conducted the Built Environment and Active Transport to School (BEATS) Study in Dunedin city, New Zealand, in 2014–2017. Since 2014, on-road and off-road cycling infrastructure construction has occurred in some Dunedin neighbourhoods, including the neighbourhoods of 6 out of 12 secondary schools. Pedestrian-related infrastructure changes began in 2018. As an extension of the BEATS Study, the BEATS Natural Experiment (BEATS-NE) (2019–2022) will examine the effects of BE changes on adolescents’ active transport to school in Dunedin, New Zealand.Methods and analysisThe BEATS-NE Study will employ contemporary ecological models for active transport that account for individual, social, environmental and policy factors. The published BEATS Study methodology (surveys, accelerometers, mapping, Geographic Information Science analysis and focus groups) and novel methods (environmental scan of school neighbourhoods and participatory mapping) will be used. A core component continues to be the community-based participatory approach with the sustained involvement of key stakeholders to generate locally relevant data, and facilitate knowledge translation into evidence-based policy and planning.Ethics and disseminationThe BEATS-NE Study has been approved by the University of Otago Ethics Committee (reference: 17/188). The results will be disseminated through scientific publications and symposia, and reports and presentations to stakeholders.Trial registration numberACTRN12619001335189.

Observing the Counterfactual? The Search for Political Experiments in Nature

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 341-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Robinson ◽  
John E. McNulty ◽  
Jonathan S. Krasno
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Introductory Essay ◽  
Conference Presentations

A search of recent political science literature and conference presentations shows substantial fascination with the concept of the natural experiment. However, there seems to be a wide array of definitions and applications employed in research that purports to analyze natural experiments. In this introductory essay to the special issue, we attempt to define natural experiments and discuss related issues of research design. In addition, we briefly explore the basic methodological issues around the appropriate analysis of natural experiments and give an overview of different techniques. The overarching theme of this essay and of this issue is to encourage applied researchers to look for natural experiments in their own work and to think more systematically about research design.

Natural Experiments Based on Geography

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Keele ◽  
Rocío Titiunik
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Original Study ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
And Control ◽  
Administrative Boundary

Political scientists often attempt to exploit natural experiments to estimate causal effects. We explore how variation in geography can be exploited as a natural experiment and review several assumptions under which geographic natural experiments yield valid causal estimates. In particular, we focus on cases where a geographic or administrative boundary splits units into treated and control areas. The different identification assumptions we consider suggest testable implications, which we use to establish their plausibility. Our methods are illustrated with an original study of whether ballot initiatives increase turnout in Wisconsin and Ohio, which illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of causal inferences based on geographic natural experiments.

Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Tropical Deforestation on Climatic Change

1992 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Clark
Keyword(s):  
Rain Forest ◽  
Tropical Rain Forest ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Deforestation ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Air Temperatures

If large areas of tropical rain-forest are replaced by grassland, there is likely to be about 300 mm less evapo-transpiration and 650–800 mm less rainfall during each year in these areas than is currently experienced. Lower rates of evapotranspiration will allow more energy to be used for sensible heat, and this will lead to surface air temperatures that are higher than currently by about 3°C. Reduced cloud-cover will also lead to even higher temperatures, because clouds have a net cooling effect. When this additional heat is combined with the extrasensible heating, the overall effect is expected to be a rise in temperature of about 4–5°C.These contentions are based upon data obtained from ‘natural experiments’. They have given results which suggest that tropical deforestation will have a larger effect on temperature than was hitherto expected, and that the effect on both temperature and rainfall will be more widespread than has been expected hitherto. The effects on global climate cannot as yet be determined by a ‘natural experiment’.The removal of so much of the tropical rain-forest as is now projected will have such a dramatic effect on local and even wider climate that no further replacement of the rain-forest ecocomplex by others or other land-uses should be allowed to take place.

scholarly journals Convergent evolution as natural experiment: the tape of life reconsidered

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 20150040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Powell ◽  
Carlos Mariscal
Keyword(s):  
Convergent Evolution ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Stephen Jay Gould ◽  
The Right ◽  
Theoretical Import ◽  
As If

Stephen Jay Gould argued that replaying the ‘tape of life’ would result in radically different evolutionary outcomes. Recently, biologists and philosophers of science have paid increasing attention to the theoretical importance of convergent evolution—the independent origination of similar biological forms and functions—which many interpret as evidence against Gould's thesis. In this paper, we examine the evidentiary relevance of convergent evolution for the radical contingency debate. We show that under the right conditions, episodes of convergent evolution can constitute valid natural experiments that support inferences regarding the deep counterfactual stability of macroevolutionary outcomes. However, we argue that proponents of convergence have problematically lumped causally heterogeneous phenomena into a single evidentiary basket, in effect treating all convergent events as if they are of equivalent theoretical import. As a result, the ‘critique from convergent evolution’ fails to engage with key claims of the radical contingency thesis. To remedy this, we develop ways to break down the heterogeneous set of convergent events based on the nature of the generalizations they support. Adopting this more nuanced approach to convergent evolution allows us to differentiate iterated evolutionary outcomes that are probably common among alternative evolutionary histories and subject to law-like generalizations, from those that do little to undermine and may even support, the Gouldian view of life.

scholarly journals Too LATE for Natural Experiments: A Critique of Local Average Treatment Effects Using the Example of Angrist and Evans (1998)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Öberg
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Average Treatment ◽  
Local Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Average Treatment Effects ◽  
Local Average Treatment Effects ◽  
Local Average

There has been a fundamental flaw in the conceptual design of many natural experiments used in the economics literature, particularly among studies aiming to estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE). When we use an instrumental variable (IV) to estimate a LATE, the IV only has an indirect effect on the treatment of interest. Such IVs do not work as intended and will produce severely biased and/or uninterpretable results. This comment demonstrates that the LATE does not work as previously thought and explains why using the natural experiment proposed by Angrist and Evans (1998) as the example.

Simple Economic Models

2013 ◽  
pp. 37-67
Author(s):  
Michael R. Hammock ◽  
J. Wilson Mixon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Models ◽  
Simple Economic

scholarly journals Experiments in Economics: A Survey

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-109
Author(s):  
Gautam Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiments ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Experimental Methods ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Interested Reader ◽  
Recent Advances

Application of experimental methods in Economics, over the last few decades, has given researchers in the field access to hitherto unobtainable data that can be used to validate or refute theoretical propositions. This field has grown exponentially during this time but is still rather new to the average academic. This article is in the nature of a survey of more recent literature. It begins with the early beginnings in the area and goes on to discuss recent advances, thematically, with special emphasis on artefactual and framed field experiments as well as natural experiments. The discussion is by no means exhaustive and is intended to bring to the interested reader a flavor of experimental methods.

scholarly journals A Case Study of a Natural Experiment Bridging the ‘Research into Policy’ and ‘Evidence-Based Policy’ Gap for Active-Living Science

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 2448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Hooper ◽  
Sarah Foster ◽  
Billie Giles-Corti
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Research Translation ◽  
Active Living ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Planning Policy ◽  
Western Australian

The translation of research into tangible health benefits via changes to urban planning policy and practice is a key intended outcome of academic active-living research endeavours. Conversely, policy-makers and planners identify the need for policy-specific evidence to ensure policy decisions and practices are informed and validated by rigorously established evidence. In practice, however, these two aspirations rarely meet and a research-translation gap remains. The RESIDE project is a unique longitudinal natural experiment designed to evaluate the health impacts of the ‘Liveable Neighbourhoods’ planning policy, which was introduced by the Western Australian Government to create more walkable suburbs. This commentary provides an overview and discussion of the policy-specific study methodologies undertaken to quantitatively assess the implementation of the policy and assess its active living and health impacts. It outlines the key research-translation successes and impact of the findings on the Liveable Neighbourhoods policy and discusses lessons learnt from the RESIDE project to inform future natural experiments of policy evaluation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document