scholarly journals Subjective Probabilities on a State Space

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 172-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edi Karni

This paper extends the analytical framework of Karni (2011) to include a state space and advances a choice-based definition of subjective probabilities on this space. These probabilities represent the beliefs of Bayesian decision makers regarding the likelihoods of events, thus resolving a long-standing, fundamental difficulty with the definition of subjective probabilities. (JEL D81, D83)

Author(s):  
Johannes Lindvall

This chapter introduces the problem of “reform capacity” (the ability of political decision-makers to adopt and implement policy changes that benefit society as a whole, by adjusting public policies to changing economic, social, and political circumstances). The chapter also reviews the long-standing discussion in political science about the relationship between political institutions and effective government. Furthermore, the chapter explains why the possibility of compensation matters greatly for the politics of reform; provides a precise definition of the concept of reform capacity; describes the book's general approach to this problem; and discusses the ethics of compensating losers from reform; and presents the book's methodological approach.


Author(s):  
Paul Chaisty ◽  
Nic Cheeseman ◽  
Timothy J. Power

This chapter summarizes the main parameters of coalitional presidentialism and the key concepts, definitions, explanatory frameworks, indicators, and propositions. It summarizes our understanding of coalitional presidentialism; the distinction between coalition formation and maintenance; the definition of coalitions; the multidimensional understanding of coalition management (the ‘presidential toolbox’); and an analytical framework that emphasizes the motivation of presidents to achieve cost minimization under constraints determined by system-level, coalition-level, and conjunctural factors. It also summarizes our main empirical findings: (1) the characteristics of presidential tools, (2) the substantive patterns of their deployment, (3) the factors that shape the costs of using these tools, (4) the actual (observed) costs of using them, and (5) the potential for imperfect substitutability of these tools. Finally, it concludes with some reflections on the current state of the research on comparative presidentialism.


2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 626-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyan Shi ◽  
Pingping Zhong ◽  
Yan Fan

In this paper, we give the definition of tree-indexed Markov chains in random environment with countable state space, and then study the realization of Markov chain indexed by a tree in random environment. Finally, we prove the strong law of large numbers and Shannon–McMillan theorem for Markov chains indexed by a Cayley tree in a Markovian environment with countable state space.


2018 ◽  
pp. 933
Author(s):  
Lucinda Vandervort

This article examines the operation of “reasonable steps” as a statutory standard for analysis of the availability of the defence of belief in consent in sexual assault cases and concludes that application of section 273.2(b) of the Criminal Code, as presently worded, often undermines the legal validity and correctness of decisions about whether the accused acted with mens rea, a guilty, blameworthy state of mind. When the conduct of an accused who is alleged to have made a mistake about whether a complainant communicated consent is assessed by the hybrid subjective-objective reasonableness standard prescribed by section 273.2, many decision-makers rely on extra-legal criteria and assumptions grounded in their personal experience and opinion about what is reasonable. In the midst of debate over what the accused knew and what steps were “reasonable,” given what the accused knew, the legal definition of consent in section 273.1 is easily overlooked and decision-makers focus on facts that are legally irrelevant and prejudice rational deliberation. The result is failure to enforce the law. The author proposes: (1) that section 273.2 be amended to reflect the significant developments achieved in sexual consent jurisprudence since enactment of the provision in 1992; and (2) that, in the interim, the judiciary act with resolve to make full and proper use of the statutory and common law tools that are presently available to determine whether the accused acted with mens rea in relation to the absence of sexual consent.


Sociologija ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166
Author(s):  
Sreten Vujovic

Based on the analyses of sociologists, historians, economists, demographers, anthropologists, and based on author?s own research, the aim of the paper is to point to the complex and dynamic sociospatial identity of contemporary Belgrade in the context of urban and regional development of post-socialist Serbia. The analytical framework includes, first of all, the definition of the city?s identity in terms of self-awareness of a city as sociospatial collectivity, which historically originates and develops in dependency which the city and the individuals in it establish in relationships with other cities. It then cites the various concepts by means of which identity of the modern city is constructed: the entrepreneurial city (Harvey), the creative city (Florida and Landry), the exciting city (Richards and Palmer), the city as a text (Radovic), a competitive identity of the city (Anholt) and so on. In particular, Belgradization as a process of concentration of money and power in the capital is analyzed and it is concluded that the network of Serbian cities is pyramidal, that the regionalization of Serbia is asymmetric, and that Belgrade is a primate city, too big and too powerful for Serbia i.e. that Belgradization increases regional imbalance in Serbia. The paper concludes with an optimistic assessment that Belgrade, despite numerous problems in its development, has the potential to become the ?European Capital of Culture? in 2020.


Author(s):  
Ahdiyat Agus Susila

Often risks arise because of more than one choice and the impact of each option is not yet known for certain, as uncertain future. There is always an opportunity cost that follows every option taken. Thus, risks may be defined as the consequences of uncertain options that have the potential to lead to unexpected outcomes or other adverse impacts to decision makers. This is the classic definition of risk. From this definition, risk contains several dimensions, namely opportunity costs, potential losses or other negative impacts, uncertainty, and obtaining results that do not match expectations. It is with these demands that risks are measured, mitigated and monitored during the business process.  


Author(s):  
Laura L. Liptai

The Scientific Method Is Utilized In Order To Understand The Relationship Among Observations Of Physical Phenomena, While Minimizing The Influence Of Human Bias And Maximizing Objectivity. Specific Procedures For The Application Of The Scientific Method Vary From One Field Of Science To Another, But The Investigative Technique Universally Provides For An Analytical Framework To Acquire, Collect And/Or Integrate Knowledge. Engineering Forensics Involves The Analysis Of The Parameters Or Cause(S) Of Incidents Or Failures And/Or Hypothetical Prevention Methods. Engineering Analysis Of Forensic Problems Is A Multifaceted, Multidisciplinary Pursuit That Is Often Wide In Scope. Forensic Engineering Generally Applies Existing Science In Conjunction With The Knowledge, Education, Experience, Training And Skill Of The Practitioner To Seek Solution(S). The Scientific Method, Including Definition Of A Null Hypothesis, Is Rarely Utilized In Forensics As New Science Is Rarely Required. A Forensic Engineering Investigation Typically Involves The Application Of Long Established Science (Newtons Laws, For Example). Forensic Engineering Encompasses The Systematic Search For Knowledge Necessitating The Observation And Definition Of A Problem; The Collection Of Data Through Observation, Research, Experimentation And/Or Calculation; The Analysis Of Data; And The Development And Evaluation Of Findings And Opinions. The Ultimate Objective Of A Forensic Engineering Investigation Is Uncompromised Data Collection And Systematically Considered, Iteratively Derived And Objectively Balanced Conclusions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Aldar ◽  
Zohar Kampf ◽  
Gadi Heimann

Abstract This paper suggests a framework for studying how remedial actions are deployed following diplomatic crisis. On the basis of thirty-four case studies and twenty-one interviews with senior statespersons, we offer a novel typology of remedial strategies employed for diffusing interstate tension and pinpoint the various calculations taken by decision-makers in performing them. The analysis reveals three primary strategies for restoring diplomatic relations, the last of which was neglected thus far in the literature: reframing, wherein state actors negotiate the definition of transgressions and their responsibility for its occurrence; remorse, wherein the accused actors acknowledge ranging degrees of responsibility for committing wrongdoing; and finally, reassurance, wherein actors channel the remedial focus to the future relationship between the involved parties. Moreover, statespersons articulated several considerations taken into account when selecting a specific remedial strategy: the perceived value of the offended party, domestic political criticism, levels of publicity, adjusting a specific remedy to the target audience, and self-image. We conclude by discussing the value of remedial work for the study of diplomatic crises. Cet article suggère un cadre pour l’étude de la manière dont des actions correctives sont déployées suite à une crise diplomatique. Nous nous sommes basés sur trente-quatre études de cas et vingt-et-un entretiens avec des hauts responsables d’État pour proposer une nouvelle typologie des stratégies correctives employées pour atténuer la tension entre États et identifier les divers calculs effectués par les décideurs pour les exécuter. Cette analyse révèle trois principales stratégies de restauration des relations diplomatiques, et la dernière d'entre elles a jusqu'ici été négligée par la littérature: celle du recadrage, dans laquelle les acteurs étatiques négocient la définition des transgressions et leur responsabilité dans leur manifestation; celle du remords, dans laquelle les acteurs accusés admettent leurs divers degrés de responsabilité dans l'engagement dans une mauvaise conduite; et enfin, celle de la réassurance, dans laquelle les acteurs canalisent leur attention corrective sur la future relation entre les parties impliquées. De plus, les responsables d’État ont articulé plusieurs considérations prises en compte lors de la sélection d'une stratégie corrective spécifique: la valeur perçue de la partie offensée, la critique politique intérieure, les niveaux de publicité, l'adaptation d'une action corrective spécifique au public cible et l'image de soi. Nous concluons par une discussion sur la valeur du travail correctif pour l’étude des crises diplomatiques. Este artículo sugiere un marco para estudiar cómo se implementan las acciones correctivas tras una crisis diplomática. Sobre la base de treinta y cuatro estudios de casos y veintiuna entrevistas con altos cargos del estado, ofrecemos una novedosa tipología de las estrategias correctivas empleadas para rebajar las tensiones interestatales y señalamos los distintos cálculos realizados por los responsables al llevarlas a cabo. El análisis revela tres estrategias principales para el restablecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas, esta última se no se había tenido en cuenta hasta ahora en la bibliografía: el replantamiento, en el que los actores estatales negocian la definición de las transgresiones y su responsabilidad; el remordimiento, en el que los actores acusados reconocen distintos grados de responsabilidad por cometer delitos; y, por último, la reafirmación, en la que los actores canalizan el enfoque correctivo hacia la futura relación entre las partes implicadas. Además, los cargos del estado expresaron varias consideraciones que se tienen en cuenta a la hora de seleccionar una estrategia correctiva específica: el valor percibido por la parte ofendida, la crítica política interna, los niveles de publicidad, el ajuste de las acciones correctivas específicas al público y la imagen propia. Concluimos con el análisis del valor del trabajo correctivo para el estudio de las crisis diplomáticas.


2022 ◽  
pp. 294-318
Author(s):  
Fatma Chiheb ◽  
Fatima Boumahdi ◽  
Hafida Bouarfa

Big Data is an important topic for discussion and research. It has gained this importance due to the meaningful value that could be extracted from these data. The application of Big Data in the modern business allows enterprises to take faster and smarter decisions, achieving a real competitive advantage. However, a lot of Big Data projects provide disappointing results that don't address the decision-makers' needs due to many reasons. The main reason for this failure can be summarized in neglecting the study of the decision-making aspect of these projects. In light of this challenge, this study proposes the integration of decision aspect into Big Data as a solution. Therefore, this article presents three main contributions: 1) Clarify the definition of Big Data; 2) Presents BD-Da model, a conceptual model describes the levels that should be considered to develop a Big Data project aiming to solve a problem that calls a decision; 3) Describes a particular, logical, requirements-like approach that explains how a company develops a Big Data analytics project to support decision-making.


<em>Abstract</em>.—Decisions about watershed restoration projects often are complicated by competing interests and goals, gaps in scientific knowledge, and constraints on time and resources. Under these circumstances, there is no best approach to decision making and problem solving. Appropriate decision processes need not always be analytically complex, but instead depend on the characteristics of the external social context, the decision makers, and the decision problem itself. Because social concerns so often prevail in restoration decisions, we begin with a discussion of issues characterizing the social context. Next, in three increasingly broad contexts for watershed restoration, we discuss the application of several methods for facilitating decisions and solving problems involving uncertainty: Bayesian decision analysis, active adaptive management, passive adaptive management, and evolutionary problem solving.


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