scholarly journals Fat Tail Analysis on S&P 100 Stocks-before and after US President Election

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Sandeep Thakur
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Economic Condition ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Fat Tail ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Climate And Health ◽  
Tail Analysis

The main aim of this paper is to determine whether the volatility in the stocks can be created by events like the US Election and whether it leads to Fat Tail in the stocks. Fat Tail analysis is a key factor in determining volatility and has been used in the economy as well as in many other fields like climate and health. Log return has been used to determine the Fat Tail. To make the work more reliable, two Presidential election periods, that of Barack Obama and Donald Trump is selected and is compared for volatility and Fat Tail. For this study, stocks from the S&P 100 are selected and observed. The results show that the US economy is not at all driven by who comes in power and when but rather by the present economic condition. Stocks showing heavy tails during the Obama presidency are primarily because the economy was under Sub Prime Crisis too.

Japanese leadership will revive TPP

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Global Standards ◽  
The Us ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject The revival of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance US President Donald Trump in January announced Washington's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP), bringing its implementation to a standstill. Without US participation, the TPP looked dead, since the US economy is larger than the other eleven economies combined. Nevertheless, after months of uncertainty, the project was revived by the eleven members under the leadership of Japan. Impacts Failure or watering down of a TPP-11 would leave China a greater role in setting global standards and norms. Progress towards the TPP-11 could speed up the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and EU-Japan economic partnership agreement. Other states will seek TPP membership in the future, with Taipei and Seoul likely candidates.

scholarly journals Climate Politics and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-282
Author(s):  
Felipe Leal Albuquerque
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Order ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Climate Politics ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump’s coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25.

Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China?

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Li ◽  
Shuixing Luo
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Investment Capital ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper studies the impact of risk shock on the Chinese economy using a New-Keynesian model with financial frictions. The study shows that risk shock is an important driving force for the fluctuations of GDP, investment, capital, credit, and credit spread in China. However, the role of risk shock in driving China’s business cycles is not as crucial as in the US economy (see Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno 2014). There are three main reasons that explain the different performance of risk shocks in China and the US: the volatility of risk shock, the effect of equity shock, and the influence of macroeconomic policies are all different in China and in the US. Our paper contributes to an understanding of the business cycles in China during the period from 1999 to 2015, particularly in comparison with business cycles in the US.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 341-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Interpretation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
New Keynesian Models ◽  
Policy Trend ◽  
Theoretical Results

With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve's reaction function before and after the Volcker disinflation to find that, (i) while the Fed likely satisfied the Taylor principle before Volcker, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, (ii) the US economy switched to determinacy during the Volcker disinflation, and (iii) the switch reflected changes in the Fed's response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E32, E52)

“We were cocked & loaded to retaliate”

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Makki ◽  
Andrew S. Ross
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Functional Linguistics ◽  
Linguistic Analysis ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Iranian Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Diplomatic Relationship

Abstract The diplomatic relationship between the USA and Iran has long been fraught and is characterised by various conflicts and the implementation of economic sanctions. It can be argued that the relationship became even more hostile after Donald Trump was elected president of the US. Trump’s sentiments towards Iran were made public through his behavior on Twitter, both before and after he took over the Presidency. These sentiments have been a mix of negative and sometimes positive views and opinions. This study uses a corpus of Trump’s tweets that explicitly mention ‘Iran’ as the basis of a linguistic analysis and applies to it the analytical framework of appraisal from Systemic Functional Linguistics. More specifically, this study focuses on how he established an Us vs. Them dichotomy. While the analysis shows that Iran has been generally portrayed negatively by Trump, there were several tweets where the Iranian government was appraised positively, too. More interestingly, in those tweets, he seemed to target Obama and democrats and represent them negatively while Iran was assessed in positive terms.

Palestine Unbound

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-134
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Task Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Tel Aviv ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intention To Move ◽  
Arab Israeli Conflict ◽  
The U.S

This section, updated regularly on the blog Palestine Square, covers popular conversations related to the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict during the quarter 16 November 2017 to 15 February 2018: #JerusalemIstheCapitalofPalestine went viral after U.S. president Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and announced his intention to move the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv. The arrest of Palestinian teenager Ahed Tamimi for slapping an Israeli soldier also prompted a viral campaign under the hashtag #FreeAhed. A smaller campaign protested the exclusion of Palestinian human rights from the agenda of the annual Creating Change conference organized by the US-based National LGBTQ Task Force in Washington. And, UNRWA publicized its emergency funding appeal, following the decision of the United States to slash funding to the organization, with the hashtag #DignityIsPriceless.

KETIDAKEFEKTIFAN KEBIJAKAN ANTI-DUMPING PRODUK IMPOR BAJA INDONESIA: SEBUAH ANALISIS AWAL

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-168
Author(s):  
Aditya Paramita Alhayat
Keyword(s):  
Government Regulation ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Information Services ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Safeguard Measures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government

Meskipun Indonesia telah mengenakan tindakan anti-dumping terhadap beberapa jenis produk baja, namun impor produk tersebut masih meningkat. Salah satu kemungkinan penyebabnya adalah importasi melalui produk yang dimodifikasi secara tidak substansial atau melalui negara ketiga yang tidak dikenakan tindakan anti-dumping, yang dalam perdagangan internasional umum disebut sebagai praktik circumvention. Studi ini ditujukan untuk membuktikan bahwa circumvention mengakibatkan tindakan anti-dumping atas impor produk baja Indonesia tidak efektif dan untuk memberikan masukan berdasarkan praktik di negara lain supaya kebijakan anti-dumping Indonesia lebih efektif. Circumvention dianalisis dengan membandingkan pola perdagangan antara sebelum dan setelah pengenaan bea masuk anti-dumping (BMAD) menggunakan data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) maupun Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya indikasi kuat bahwa circumvention mengkibatkan pengenaan tindakan anti-dumping impor produk baja di Indonesia menjadi tidak efektif. Oleh karena itu, sangat penting bagi Pemerintah Indonesia untuk segera melakukan penyempurnaan terhadap Peraturan Pemerintah No. 34/2011 tentang Tindakan Antidumping, Tindakan Imbalan, dan Tindakan Pengamanan Perdagangan dengan memasukkan klausul tindakan anti-circumvention yang setidaknya mencakup bentuk-bentuk dan prosedur tindakan, sebagaimana yang telah dilakukan beberapa negara seperti: AS, EU, Australia, dan India. Although Indonesia has imposed anti-dumping measures on several types of steel products, the import of steel products is still increasing. One possible cause is that imports are made by non-substantial modification of product or through a third country which is not subject to anti-dumping measures, which is generally referred as circumvention practice. This study is aimed to prove that circumvention made Indonesian anti-dumping actions on the steel products ineffective. This also study provides recommendation for a best practice for other countries so that Indonesia's anti-dumping policy can be more effective. Circumvention was analyzed by comparing trade patterns between before and after the imposition of anti-dumping duty using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). The results of the analysis indicate that circumvention became the reason why Indonesian anti-dumping measures on imported steel products are ineffective. Therefore, it is very important for the Government of Indonesia to immediately make amendments to the Government Regulation No. 34/2011 on Antidumping, Countervailing, and Safeguard Measures by adopting clauses of anti-circumvention. This can be done bycovering the forms/types and procedures of action, as has been implemented by several countries such as the US, EU, Australia, and India.

Changes in Perceptions of Filipino Immigrants about Themselves and of Americans Before and After Coming to the United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gremil Alessandro Naz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Symbolic Interaction ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Appraisal Theory ◽  
American Values ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Symbolic Interaction Theory ◽  
Filipino Immigrants

<p>This paper examines the changes in Filipino immigrants’ perceptions about themselves and of Americans before and after coming to the United States. Filipinos have a general perception of themselves as an ethnic group. They also have perceptions about Americans whose media products regularly reach the Philippines. Eleven Filipinos who have permanently migrated to the US were interviewed about their perceptions of Filipinos and Americans. Before coming to the US, they saw themselves as hardworking, family-oriented, poor, shy, corrupt, proud, adaptable, fatalistic, humble, adventurous, persevering, gossipmonger, and happy. They described Americans as rich, arrogant, educated, workaholic, proud, powerful, spoiled, helpful, boastful, materialistic, individualistic, talented, domineering, friendly, accommodating, helpful, clean, and kind. Most of the respondents changed their perceptions of Filipinos and of Americans after coming to the US. They now view Filipinos as having acquired American values or “Americanized.” On the other hand, they stopped perceiving Americans as a homogenous group possessing the same values after they got into direct contact with them. The findings validate social perception and appraisal theory, and symbolic interaction theory.</p>

Making Americans Feel Great Again? Personal Significance Predicts Political Intentions of Losers and Winners of the 2016 US Election

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Jasko ◽  
Joanna Grzymala-Moszczynska ◽  
Marta Maj ◽  
Marta Szastok ◽  
Arie W. Kruglanski
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Personal Significance ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Times

Reactions of losers and winners of political elections have important consequences for the political system during the times of power transition. In four studies conducted immediately before and after the 2016 US presidential elections we investigated how personal significance induced by success or failure of one’s candidate is related to hostile vs. benevolent intentions toward political adversaries. We found that the less significant supporters of Hillary Clinton and supporters of Donald Trump felt after an imagined (Study 1A) or actual (Study 2) electoral failure the more they were willing to engage in peaceful actions against the elected president and the less they were willing to accept the results of the elections. However, while significance gain due to an imagined or actual electoral success was related to more benevolent intentions among Clinton supporters (Study 1B), it was related to more hostile intentions among Trump supporters (Studies 1B, 2, and 3).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document