scholarly journals Designing Zonal-Based Flexible Bus Services Under Stochastic Demand

Author(s):  
Enoch Lee ◽  
Xuekai Cen ◽  
Hong K. Lo ◽  
Ka Fai Ng

In this paper, we develop a zonal-based flexible bus services (ZBFBS) by considering both passenger demands’ spatial (origin-destination or OD) and volume stochastic variations. Service requests are grouped by zonal OD pairs and number of passengers per request, and aggregated into demand categories which follow certain probability distributions. A two-stage stochastic program is formulated to minimize the expected operating cost of ZBFBS, in which the zonal visit sequences of vehicles are determined in stage 1, whereas in stage 2, service requests are assigned to either regular routes determined in stage 1 or ad hoc services that incur additional costs. Demand volume reliability and detour time reliability are introduced to ensure quality of the services and separate the problem into two phases for efficient solutions. In phase 1, given the reliability requirements, we minimize the cost of operating the regular services. In phase 2, we optimize the passenger assignment to vehicles to minimize the expected ad hoc service cost. The reliabilities are then optimized by a gradient-based approach to minimize the sum of the regular service operating cost and expected ad hoc service cost. We conduct numerical studies on vehicle capacity, detour time limit and demand volume to demonstrate the potential of ZBFBS, and apply the model to Chengdu, China, based on real data to illustrate its applicability.

2006 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 115-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
MENG-CHENG CHEN ◽  
JIAN-JUN ZHU ◽  
K. Y. SZE

An ad hoc one-dimensional finite element formulation is developed for the eigenanalysis of inplane singular electroelastic fields at material and geometric discontinuities in piezoelectric elastic materials by using the eigenfunction expansion procedure and the weak form of the governing equations for prismatic sectorial domains composed of piezoelectrics, composites or air. The order of the electroelastic singularities and the angular variation of the stress and electric displacement fields are obtained with the formulation. The influence of wedge angle, polarization orientation, material types, and boundary and interface conditions on the singular electroelastic fields and the order of their singularity are also examined. The simplicity and accuracy of the formulation are demonstrated by comparison to several analytical solutions for piezoelectric and composite multi-material wedges. The nature and speed of convergence suggests that the present eigensolution could be used in developing hybrid elements for use along with standard elements to yield accurate and computationally efficient solutions to problems having complex global geometries leading to singular electroelastic states.


2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Amini Farsani ◽  
Volker J. Schmid

AbstractCo-localization analysis is a popular method for quantitative analysis in fluorescence microscopy imaging. The localization of marked proteins in the cell nucleus allows a deep insight into biological processes in the nucleus. Several metrics have been developed for measuring the co-localization of two markers, however, they depend on subjective thresholding of background and the assumption of linearity. We propose a robust method to estimate the bivariate distribution function of two color channels. From this, we can quantify their co- or anti-colocalization. The proposed method is a combination of the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and a Gaussian Copula, which we call the Maximum Entropy Copula (MEC). This new method can measure the spatial and nonlinear correlation of signals to determine the marker colocalization in fluorescence microscopy images. The proposed method is compared with MEM for bivariate probability distributions. The new colocalization metric is validated on simulated and real data. The results show that MEC can determine co- and anti-colocalization even in high background settings. MEC can, therefore, be used as a robust tool for colocalization analysis.


Author(s):  
Valerio De Martinis ◽  
Ambra Toletti ◽  
Francesco Corman ◽  
Ulrich A. Weidmann ◽  
Andrew Nash

The optimization of rail operation for improving energy efficiency plays an important role for the current and future market of rail freight services and helps rail compete with other transport modes. This paper presents a feedforward simulation-based model that performs speed profile optimization together with minor rescheduling actions. The model’s purpose is to provide railway operators and infrastructure managers with energy-efficient solutions that are tailored especially for freight trains. This work starts from the assumption that freight train characteristics are completely defined only a few hours before actual departure; therefore, small specific feedforward adjustments that do not affect the surrounding operation can still be considered. The model was tested in a numerical example. The example clearly shows how the optimized solutions can be evaluated with reference to energy saved and robustness within the rail traffic. The evaluation is based on real data from the North–South corridor crossing Switzerland from Germany to Italy.


Author(s):  
Chi-Hua Chen ◽  
Fangying Song ◽  
Feng-Jang Hwang ◽  
Ling Wu

To generate a probability density function (PDF) for fitting probability distributions of real data, this study proposes a deep learning method which consists of two stages: (1) a training stage for estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and (2) a performing stage for predicting the corresponding PDF. The CDFs of common probability distributions can be adopted as activation functions in the hidden layers of the proposed deep learning model for learning actual cumulative probabilities, and the differential equation of trained deep learning model can be used to estimate the PDF. To evaluate the proposed method, numerical experiments with single and mixed distributions are performed. The experimental results show that the values of both CDF and PDF can be precisely estimated by the proposed method.


Bauingenieur ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 94 (07-08) ◽  
pp. 255-265
Author(s):  
Thomas Herfs

Zusammenfassung Das britische Verkehrsministerium plant den Bau einer weiteren Hochgeschwindigkeitsstrecke mit einer Gesamtlänge von 230 km und einer möglichen Höchstgeschwindigkeit von 360 km/h. Die Phase 1 des High Speed Two (HS2) Projekts verbindet die Städte London und Birmingham und soll im Jahr 2026 betriebsbereit sein. Für die Vertragsvergabe der Hauptbauwerke ‚Main Works Civils‘ wurde die Trasse in sieben Lose eingeteilt und nach einem mehrjährigen Planfeststellungsverfahren im Jahr 2017 öffentlich ausgeschrieben. Das Design-Build-Vorhaben sieht für die Planungsphase (Stage 1) ein sogenanntes Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) vor, in dessen Rahmen Bauherr, bauausführende Firmen und Planer gemeinschaftlich einen Bauentwurf (Scheme Design) entwickeln und die Ausführung planen. HS2 beauftragte für die zwei südlichen Lose S1 und S2 mit einer Gesamtlänge von 25,8 km die Arbeitsgemeinschaft Skanska, Costain und Strabag (SCS JV). Beide Lose befinden sich im Ballungsraum von London und umfassen unter anderem den Bau von Tunneln mittels Schildvortrieb, in Spritzbeton- und Deckelbauweise sowie den Bau von Ventilationsschächten, Brücken und Kavernen. Am südlichen Ende der Eisenbahntrasse befindet sich das Vorfeld ‚Euston Approaches‘ des Londoner Bahnhofs Euston Station. Innerhalb dieses ersten Kilometers der Strecke plant HS2, eine Reihe von Ingenieurbauwerken direkt neben und unterhalb der historischen Eisenbahninfrastruktur bei laufendem Bahnbetrieb zu errichten. Dieser Artikel beschreibt die örtlichen Randbedingungen des komplexen Bauvorhabens und die daraus entstehenden Herausforderungen an den Entwurf und die Planung der oberflächennahen Kaverne, welche im Vorfeld als außergewöhnlich hohes Projektrisiko identifiziert wurde. Die Entwicklung des Scheme Designs wurde daher begleitet von Design Reviews, Design Checks und einer Technical Assurance. Das Projekt befindet sich zurzeit am Ende der Planungsphase.


2020 ◽  
pp. 112067212093059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Parolini ◽  
Michele Palmieri ◽  
Alessandro Finzi ◽  
Gianluca Besozzi ◽  
Angela Lucente ◽  
...  

Purpose: To describe a comprehensive OCT-based classification of myopic traction maculopathy (MTM). Methods: Two hundred eighty-one eyes with MTM (visited from 2006 to 2018), were retrospectively reviewed for age, best-corrected-visual-acuity (BCVA), axial length (AL), optical coherence tomography (OCT), and wide-field color fundus-photographs. The study was divided in two Phases. Phase 1: MTM types were categorized with OCT and correlated with age and BCVA. The type of staphyloma was described. Phase 2: the evolution of MTM was studied evaluating at least three OCT exams of each eye taken at different timings (interval between each exam: 1–10 years). Results: Phase 1: We identified, four MTM retinal stages (1. Inner/Outer Maculoschisis; 2. Predominantly outer Maculoschisis; 3. Maculoschisis-Macular Detachment; 4. Macular Detachment) and three foveal stages (a. Normal fovea; b. Inner Lamellar-Macular-Hole; c. Full-Thickness-Macular-Hole). Outer-Lamellar-Macular-Holes and epiretinal abnormalities were associated findings. Stages 1 to 2 were younger than stages 3 to 4 ( p < 0.05). BCVA in stages 1, 2 was similar, and higher than stages 3, 4 ( p < 0.02). About 14% of eyes had no staphyloma, 73% of eyes had staphyloma type 1 or 2. MTM stages were not correlated with AL. Phase 2: The retina could change in time from stage 1 to 4, or the fovea could change from stage a to c. Mean evolution time from stage 1 to 2, stage 2 to 3, and 3 to 4 were 20, 12, 3 months, respectively. BCVA decreased over time as stages increased ( p = 0.47). Conclusion: The MSS Table displays a new classification, the natural evolution, and practical insights for the management of MTM.


FLORESTA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 403
Author(s):  
Danilo Simões ◽  
Ricardo Hideaki Miyajima ◽  
Rodrigo Petrongari Tonin ◽  
Paulo Torres Fenner ◽  
Gislaine Cristina Batistela

The constant technical and economic analysis of timber harvesting operations is essential and determining, due to the monetary magnitude. Traditionally, these analyses are conducted deterministically, which does not allow obtaining values with probabilities of occurrence. Considering this issue, stochastic models were built in order to analyze the behavior of probabilistic production cost in felling operations with feller-buncher, through the Monte Carlo method. The study was conducted in the Central-West region of the state of São Paulo in a forest of Eucalyptus sp., with six years of age, planted in 3 x 2 m spacing. Technical analysis was based on the study of time and movements, which determined the effective productivity and economy in the hourly operating cost of the feller-buncher and in the production costs of the operation. Due to uncertainties, probability distributions were assigned to these results, which identified the most relevant variables and quantified the probabilities of the production cost. The results demonstrated that the fuel cost had a statistically significant strong positive correlation coefficient ( = 0.91) (p-value < 0.01). The hourly cost, consequently, was directly proportional to the production cost of the operation. The production cost of the operation in flat relief was 18% lower than the production cost of the operation in undulating relief.


2017 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benmei Liu ◽  
Partha Lahiri

Unit-level logistic regression models with mixed effects have been used for estimating small area proportions in the literature. Normality is commonly assumed for the random effects. Nonetheless, real data often show significant departures from normality assumptions of the random effects. To reduce the risk of model misspecification, we propose an adaptive hierarchical Bayes estimation approach in which the distribution of the random effect is chosen adaptively from the exponential power class of probability distributions. The richness of the exponential power class ensures the robustness of our hierarchical Bayes approach against departure from normality. We demonstrate the robustness of our proposed model using both simulated and real data. The results suggest that the proposed model works reasonably well to incorporate potential kurtosis of the random effects distribution.


Geophysics ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 550-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chong‐Yung Chi ◽  
Jerry M. Mendel ◽  
Dan Hampson

In this paper we derive and implement a maximum‐likelihood deconvolution (MLD) algorithm, based on the same channel and statistical models used by Kormylo and Mendel (1983a), that leads to many fewer computations than their MLD algorithm. Both algorithms can simultaneously estimate a nonminimum phase wavelet and statistical parameters, detect locations of significant reflectors, and deconvolve the data. Our MLD algorithm is implemented by a two‐phase block component method (BCM). The phase‐1 block functions like a coarse adjustment of unknown quantities and provides a set of good initial conditions for the phase‐2 block, which functions like a fine adjustment of unknown quantities. We demonstrate good performance of our algorithm for both synthetic and real data.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 814-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul G. Richardson ◽  
Melissa Alsina ◽  
Donna M. Weber ◽  
Steven E. Coutre ◽  
Sagar Lonial ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 814FN2 Background: Patients with refractory multiple myeloma (MM) have limited treatment options and an extremely poor prognosis. A recent study of patients who were refractory to bortezomib and were relapsed following, refractory to or ineligible to receive an immunomodulatory drug (IMiD, thalidomide or lenalidomide) demonstrated a median event-free survival of only 5 months (Kumar S et al, Leukemia, 2011). Panobinostat is an oral pan-deacetylase inhibitor (pan-DACi) that increases acetylation of proteins involved in multiple oncogenic pathways. Preclinical studies have demonstrated synergistic anti-myeloma activity of the combination of panobinostat and bortezomib through dual inhibition of the aggresome and proteasome pathways. In a phase I study (B2207) of patients with relapsed or relapsed/refractory MM treated with panobinostat + bortezomib, clinical responses (≥ minimal response [MR]) were observed in 65% of patients, including in patients with bortezomib-refractory disease. PANORAMA 2 seeks to expand upon these preliminary results and seeks to determine whether panobinostat can sensitize resistant patients to a bortezomib-containing therapeutic regimen. Methods: PANORAMA 2 is a single arm, phase II study of panobinostat + bortezomib + dexamethasone in patients with bortezomib-refractory MM. Patients with relapsed and bortezomib-refractory MM (≥ 2 prior lines of therapy including an IMiD and who had progressed on or within 60 days of the last bortezomib-based therapy) are treated in 2 phases. Treatment phase 1 consists of 8 three-week cycles of oral panobinostat (20 mg days 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12) + intravenous bortezomib (1.3 mg/m2 days 1, 4, 8, 11) + oral dexamethasone (20 mg on day of and after bortezomib). Patients demonstrating clinical benefit (≥ stable disease) can proceed to treatment phase 2, consisting of 4 six-week cycles of panobinostat (20 mg TIW 2 weeks on 1 week off, and repeat) + bortezomib (1.3 mg/m2 days 1, 8, 22, 29) + dexamethasone (20 mg on day of and after bortezomib). The primary endpoint is overall response (≥ partial response [PR]), as defined by the European Group of Blood and Marrow Transplantation 1998 criteria, in the first 8 cycles of treatment phase 1. A Simon 2-stage design is used to test the primary endpoint where ≥ 4 responses (≥ PR) in 24 patients are needed in stage 1 in order to proceed to stage 2, where ≥ 9 responses in all patients (N = 47) are required to reject the null hypothesis (overall response rate ≤ 10%). Results: A sufficient number of responses ≥ PR were observed in stage 1 to allow for enrollment to continue to stage 2. As of 15 July 2011, 53 patients with bortezomib-refractory MM were enrolled. Safety and demographic data were available for 48 patients. The median age was 61 (41–88) years. Patients were heavily pretreated, with a median of 4 (2–14) prior regimens, and most patients (69%) received prior autologous stem cell transplant. Efficacy data were available for 44 patients. At the time of this analysis, 9 patients achieved ≥ PR (2 near CR [nCR] and 7 PR) as best overall response, and an additional 7 patients achieved an MR. Responders exhibited a long duration on therapy, and, to date, 8 patients have proceeded to treatment phase 2. The 2 patients with nCR have received ≥ 10 cycles of treatment (duration of therapy 190 and 253 days). Four patients who achieved PR have received ≥ 9 cycles (duration of therapy 155–225 days). Updated response data will be presented. Common adverse events (AEs) of any grade included, fatigue (52%), diarrhea (41%), thrombocytopenia (38%), nausea (38%), and anemia (21%). Gastrointestinal AEs were generally mild, with a relatively low incidence of grade 3/4 events. Grade 3/4 AEs were generally hematologic in nature, with grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia, anemia, and neutropenia reported in 38%, 12%, and 10% of patients, respectively. Other common nonhematologic grade 3/4 AEs included fatigue (10%) and pneumonia (10%). Of note, to date, a relatively low rate of peripheral neuropathy (17%) has been observed. No grade 3/4 peripheral neuropathy has been observed. Conclusions: The combination of panobinostat and bortezomib is a promising treatment for patients with bortezomib-refractory MM. These data, along with forthcoming data from the phase III study of panobinostat/placebo + bortezomib + dexamethasone in patients with relapsed MM (PANORAMA 1), will further define the potential role of panobinostat in the treatment of patients with MM. Disclosures: Richardson: Johnson & Johnson: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Millennium: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Alsina:Novartis: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Ortho Biotech: Research Funding; Onyx: Research Funding; Millennium: Consultancy, Research Funding. Weber:Millennium: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding. Lonial:Millennium: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; Onyx: Consultancy; BMS: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy. Gasparetto:Millennium: Speakers Bureau. Warsi:Novartis: Employment, Equity Ownership. Ondovik:Novartis: Employment, Equity Ownership. Mukhopadhyay:Novartis: Employment, Equity Ownership. Snodgrass:Novartis: Employment, Equity Ownership.


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