scholarly journals Explaining the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 through mobility and enterprise statistics: Evidence from the first wave in Japan

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247186
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kajitani ◽  
Michinori Hatayama
Keyword(s):  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Data Source ◽  
General Business

This study uses mobility statistics combined with business census data for the eight Japanese prefectures with the highest coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection rates to study the effect of mobility reductions on the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases caused by one infected person). Mobility statistics are a relatively new data source created by compiling smartphone location data; they can be effectively used for understanding pandemics if integrated with epidemiological findings and other economic data sets. Based on data for the first wave of infections in Japan, we found that reductions targeting the hospitality industry were slightly more effective than restrictions on general business activities. Specifically, we found that to hold back the pandemic (that is, to reduce the effective reproduction number to one or less for all days), a 20%–35% reduction in weekly mobility is required, depending on the region. A lesser goal, 80% of days with one or less observed transmission, can be achieved with a 6%–30% reduction in weekly mobility. These are the results if other potential causes of spread are ignored; for a fuller picture, more careful observations, expanded data sets, and advanced statistical modeling are needed.

scholarly journals Explaining the Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 through Mobility and Enterprise Statistics: Evidence from the First Wave in Japan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kajitani ◽  
Michinori Hatayama
Keyword(s):  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Data Source ◽  
General Business

AbstractThis study uses mobility statistics combined with business census data for the eight Japanese prefectures with the highest COVID-19 infection rates to study the effect of mobility reductions on the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases caused by one infected person). Mobility statistics are a relatively new data source created by compiling smartphone location data. Based on data for the first wave of infections in Japan, we found that reductions targeting the hospitality industry were more effective than restrictions on general business activities. Specifically, we found that to hold back the pandemic (that is, to reduce the effective reproduction number to one or less for all days), a 20-35% reduction in weekly mobility is required, depending on the region. A lesser goal, 80% of days with one or less observed transmission, can be achieved with a 6-30% reduction in weekly mobility. These are the results if other potential causes of spread are ignored; more careful observations and expanded data sets are needed.

scholarly journals Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (50) ◽  
pp. e2105112118
Author(s):  
Luis Alvarez ◽  
Miguel Colom ◽  
Jean-David Morel ◽  
Jean-Michel Morel
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Renewal Equation ◽  
Temporal Delay ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Good Agreement

The COVID-19 pandemic has undergone frequent and rapid changes in its local and global infection rates, driven by governmental measures or the emergence of new viral variants. The reproduction number Rt indicates the average number of cases generated by an infected person at time t and is a key indicator of the spread of an epidemic. A timely estimation of Rt is a crucial tool to enable governmental organizations to adapt quickly to these changes and assess the consequences of their policies. The EpiEstim method is the most widely accepted method for estimating Rt. But it estimates Rt with a significant temporal delay. Here, we propose a method, EpiInvert, that shows good agreement with EpiEstim, but that provides estimates of Rt several days in advance. We show that Rt can be estimated by inverting the renewal equation linking Rt with the observed incidence curve of new cases, it. Our signal-processing approach to this problem yields both Rt and a restored it corrected for the “weekend effect” by applying a deconvolution and denoising procedure. The implementations of the EpiInvert and EpiEstim methods are fully open source and can be run in real time on every country in the world and every US state.

Comparison of Two Common Approaches to Public Transit Service Equity Evaluation

2015 ◽  
Vol 2531 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Karner ◽  
Aaron Golub
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Public Transit ◽  
Transit System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Transit Service ◽  
Transit Ridership ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Equity Evaluation ◽  
Equity Effects ◽  
Service Change

Understanding the equity effects of transit service changes requires good information about the demographics of transit ridership. Onboard survey data and census data can be used to estimate equity effects, although there is no clear reason to conclude that these two sources will lead to the same findings. Guidance from the FTA recommends the use of either of these data sources to estimate equity impacts. This study made a direct comparison of the two methods for the public transit system in the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area. The results indicated that although both sources were acceptable for FTA compliance, the use of one or the other could affect whether a proposed service change was deemed equitable. In other words, the outcome of a service change equity analysis could differ as a result of the data source used. To ensure the integrity and meaning of such analyses, FTA should recommend the collection and use of ridership data for conducting service change analyses to supplement approaches that are based on census data.

scholarly journals The insoluble problems of books: what does Altmetric.com have to offer?

2018 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 691-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Torres-Salinas ◽  
Juan Gorraiz ◽  
Nicolas Robinson-Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Special Focus ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Sciences And Humanities ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
The Social ◽  
Google Books ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
The One

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the capabilities, functionalities and appropriateness of Altmetric.com as a data source for the bibliometric analysis of books in comparison to PlumX. Design/methodology/approach The authors perform an exploratory analysis on the metrics the Altmetric Explorer for Institutions, platform offers for books. The authors use two distinct data sets of books. On the one hand, the authors analyze the Book Collection included in Altmetric.com. On the other hand, the authors use Clarivate’s Master Book List, to analyze Altmetric.com’s capabilities to download and merge data with external databases. Finally, the authors compare the findings with those obtained in a previous study performed in PlumX. Findings Altmetric.com combines and orderly tracks a set of data sources combined by DOI identifiers to retrieve metadata from books, being Google Books its main provider. It also retrieves information from commercial publishers and from some Open Access initiatives, including those led by university libraries, such as Harvard Library. We find issues with linkages between records and mentions or ISBN discrepancies. Furthermore, the authors find that automatic bots affect greatly Wikipedia mentions to books. The comparison with PlumX suggests that none of these tools provide a complete picture of the social attention generated by books and are rather complementary than comparable tools. Practical implications This study targets different audience which can benefit from the findings. First, bibliometricians and researchers who seek for alternative sources to develop bibliometric analyses of books, with a special focus on the Social Sciences and Humanities fields. Second, librarians and research managers who are the main clients to which these tools are directed. Third, Altmetric.com itself as well as other altmetric providers who might get a better understanding of the limitations users encounter and improve this promising tool. Originality/value This is the first study to analyze Altmetric.com’s functionalities and capabilities for providing metric data for books and to compare results from this platform, with those obtained via PlumX.

scholarly journals Aerial survey and telemetry data analysis of a peripheral caribou calving area in northwestern Alaska

Rangifer ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-58
Author(s):  
Alexander K. Prichard ◽  
Ryan L. Klimstra ◽  
Brian T. Person ◽  
Lincoln S. Parrett
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Development ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Telemetry Data ◽  
Western Arctic ◽  
Data Source

With industrial development expanding in the Arctic, there is increasing interest in quantifying the impacts of development projects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti). The primary data source to assess caribou distribution and predict impacts in remote areas of Alaska has shifted in recent decades from aerial survey data to telemetry data, but these techniques have different strengths and weaknesses. The ranges of two caribou herds, the Western Arctic Herd and the Teshekpuk Herd, overlap in northwest Alaska between Wainwright and Atqasuk, Alaska. Based on long-term telemetry data sets, this region was thought to be outside of the core calving ranges of both herds. Calving has long been reported to occur in this general area, but early reports assumed caribou were from the Western Arctic Herd and only one systematic aerial survey of caribou density and distribution during calving has been conducted in this area in recent decades. Following interest in industrial development in this area, we conducted aerial strip-transect surveys during early to mid-June 2013–2015 to directly assess the density and distribution of caribou in the area and we used existing telemetry data to compare our results to the seasonal distribution of both herds. Total caribou densities varied between 0.36 and 1.06 caribou/km² among years, and calf densities varied 0.04 and 0.25 calves/km² among years. Contrary to assumptions by early researchers in the area, telemetry data indicated that caribou in this area during early to mid-June were from the Teshekpuk Herd. The use of telemetry data alone underestimated the importance of this area for calving, but the combination of aerial surveys and telemetry data provided complementary information on caribou use of this area showing the importance of collecting the appropriate types of data for assessing potential impacts of development on caribou.

Comparing Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and Washington Post Fatal Police Shooting Data from 2015–2019: A Research Note

2022 ◽  
pp. 073401682110710
Author(s):  
Benjamin P. Comer ◽  
Jason R. Ingram
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Washington Post ◽  
Police Violence ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Police Shooting ◽  
Mean Differences ◽  
Over Time

This research note empirically assessed similarities and differences among three open-source data sets from 2015-2019. Fatal police shooting incidents were compared across Washington Post, Mapping Police Violence, and Fatal Encounters data over a five-year period. One-way ANOVAs, bivariate correlations, and proportional percentage differences were used to examine mean differences, correlational strength, and yearly percentage difference trends. No significant mean differences were observed between Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and Washington Post. With one exception, bivariate correlations between all three data source dyads were consistently strong. Percentage difference comparisons among data source dyads, however, revealed that the sources are becoming more dissimilar in their reporting of fatal shootings over time. Our results complement existing literature that has compared open-source police shooting data to government sources and suggest that the three data sources were strongly associated with one another from 2015-2019. Increasing differences between sources, however, necessitate continued inspection of the data across the various open-source platforms over time.

Modelling Migration with Poisson Regression

2010 ◽  
pp. 261-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Flowerdew
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Negative Integer ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Generalised Linear Modelling

Most statistical analysis is based on the assumption that error is normally distributed, but many data sets are based on discrete data (the number of migrants from one place to another must be a whole number). Recent developments in statistics have often involved generalising methods so that they can be properly applied to non-normal data. For example, Nelder and Wedderburn (1972) developed the theory of generalised linear modelling, where the dependent or response variable can take a variety of different probability distributions linked in one of several possible ways to a linear predictor, based on a combination of independent or explanatory variables. Several common statistical techniques are special cases of the generalised linear models, including the usual form of regression analysis, Ordinary Least Squares regression, and binomial logit modelling. Another important special case is Poisson regression, which has a Poisson-distributed dependent variable, linked logarithmically to a linear combination of independent variables. Poisson regression may be an appropriate method when the dependent variable is constrained to be a non-negative integer, usually a count of the number of events in certain categories. It assumes that each event is independent of the others, though the probability of an event may be linked to available explanatory variables. This chapter illustrates how Poisson regression can be carried out using the Stata package, proceeding to discuss various problems and issues which may arise in the use of the method. The number of migrants from area i to area j must be a non-negative integer and is likely to vary according to zone population, distance and economic variables. The availability of high-quality migration data through the WICID facility permits detailed analysis at levels from the region to the output areas. A vast range of possible explanatory variables can also be derived from the 2001 Census data. Model results are discussed in terms of the significant explanatory variables, the overall goodness of fit and the big residuals. Comparisons are drawn with other analytic techniques such as OLS regression. The relationship to Wilson’s entropy maximising methods is described, and variants on the method are explained. These include negative binomial regression and zero-censored and zero-truncated models.

TESTING TIME-SERIES STATIONARITY AGAINST AN ALTERNATIVE WHOSE MEAN IS PERIODIC

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melvin A. Hinich ◽  
Phillip Wild
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Transform ◽  
Real World ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Testing Time ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Important Form ◽  
Real World Problems

We develop a test of the null hypothesis that an observed time series is a realization of a strictly stationary random process. Our test is based on the result that the kth value of the discrete Fourier transform of a sample frame has a zero mean under the null hypothesis. The test that we develop will have considerable power against an important form of nonstationarity hitherto not considered in the mainstream econometric time-series literature, that is, where the mean of a time series is periodic with random variation in its periodic structure. The size and power properties of the test are investigated and its applicability to real-world problems is demonstrated by application to three economic data sets.

Automatically Building Linking Relations between Lane-Level Map and Commercial Navigation Map Using Topological Networks Matching

2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1159-1178
Author(s):  
Lu Tao ◽  
Pan Zhang ◽  
Lixin Yan ◽  
Dunyao Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Driving System ◽  
Forward Path ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Data Source ◽  
System Mapping ◽  
Autonomous Driving System ◽  
Mapping Information

The lane-level map, which contains the lane-level information severely lacking in widely used commercial navigation maps, has become an essential data source for autonomous driving systems. The linking relations between lane-level map and commercial navigation map can facilitate an autonomous driving system mapping information between different applications using different maps. In this paper, an approach is proposed to build the linking relations automatically. The different topology networks are first reconstructed into similar structures. Then, to build the linking relations automatically, the adaptive multi-filter algorithm and forward path exploring algorithm are proposed to detect corresponding junctions and paths, respectively. The approach is validated by two real data sets of more than 150 km of roads, mainly highway. The linking relations for nearly 94% of the total road length have been built successfully.

scholarly journals Secret Shopper Data on Private Prices in the Nursing Home Industry From 2008 to 2010

2019 ◽  
pp. 107755871987902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lacey Loomer ◽  
Ashvin Gandhi ◽  
Fangli Geng ◽  
David C. Grabowski
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Nursing Homes ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Health Care Market ◽  
Special Care Unit ◽  
Urban Hospital ◽  
Quality Ratings ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Facility Level

Nationwide nursing home private-pay prices at the facility-level have not been available for researchers interested in studying this unique health care market. This study presents a new data source, Caregiverlist, for private-pay prices for private and semiprivate rooms for 12,000 nursing homes nationwide collected between 2008 and 2010. We link these data to publicly available national nursing home-level data sets to examine the relationship between price and nursing home characteristics. We also compare private-pay prices with average private-pay revenues per day for California nursing homes obtained from facilities’ financial filings. On average, private-pay prices were $224 per day for private rooms compared with $197 per day for semiprivate rooms. We find that nursing homes that are nonprofit, urban, hospital-based, have a special care unit, chain-owned, and have higher quality ratings have higher prices. We find average revenues per day in California to be moderately correlated with prices reported by Caregiverlist.

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