scholarly journals Estimating human leishmaniasis burden in Spain using the capture-recapture method, 2016–2017

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0259225
Author(s):  
Ana María Humanes-Navarro ◽  
Zaida Herrador ◽  
Lidia Redondo ◽  
Israel Cruz ◽  
Beatriz Fernández-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Surveillance Network ◽  
Mucocutaneous Leishmaniasis ◽  
Human Leishmaniasis ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Hospital Discharge Records

Leishmaniasis is endemic and a mandatory reporting disease in Spain since 1982. However, between 1996 and 2014, surveillance on public health was decentralized and only some autonomous regions monitored the disease. The aim of this study is to estimate the incidence of leishmaniasis and to evaluate the extent of underreporting in Spain. A capture-recapture (CRC) study was conducted to calculate the incidence of human leishmaniasis using reports from the National Surveillance Network (RENAVE) and the Hospital Discharge Records of the National Health System (CMBD) for 2016 and 2017. During the study period, 802 cases were reported to RENAVE and there were 1,149 incident hospitalizations related to leishmaniasis. The estimated incidence rates through the CRC study were 0.79 per 100,000 inhabitants for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), 0.88 (cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL)) and 0.12 (mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL)) in 2016 and 0.86 (VL), 1.04 (CL) and 0.12 (MCL) in 2017. An underreporting of 14.7–20.2% for VL and 50.4–55.1% for CL was found. The CRC method has helped us to assess the sensitivity and representativeness of leishmaniasis surveillance in Spain, being a useful tool to assess whether the generalization of leishmaniasis surveillance throughout the Spanish territory achieves a reduction in underreporting.

scholarly journals Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. e0009014
Author(s):  
Mabel Carabali ◽  
Gloria I. Jaramillo-Ramirez ◽  
Vivian A. Rivera ◽  
Neila-Julieth Mina Possu ◽  
Berta N. Restrepo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Diagnosis ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Healthcare Facility ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
National Surveillance System

Background Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities. Methodology/Principal findings To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014–2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses’ reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21–70%) followed by Zika (6–45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias. Conclusions These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses’ reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

scholarly journals A Strong Seasonality Pattern for Covid-19 Incidence Rates Modulated by UV Radiation Levels

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 574
Author(s):  
Christos Karapiperis ◽  
Panos Kouklis ◽  
Stelios Papastratos ◽  
Anastasia Chasapi ◽  
Antoine Danchin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Uv Radiation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Strong Seasonality

The Covid-19 pandemic has required nonpharmaceutical interventions, primarily physical distancing, personal hygiene and face mask use, to limit community transmission, irrespective of seasons. In fact, the seasonality attributes of this pandemic remain one of its biggest unknowns. Early studies based on past experience from respiratory diseases focused on temperature or humidity, with disappointing results. Our hypothesis that ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels might be a factor and a more appropriate parameter has emerged as an alternative to assess seasonality and exploit it for public health policies. Using geographical, socioeconomic and epidemiological criteria, we selected twelve North-equatorial-South countries with similar characteristics. We then obtained UV levels, mobility and Covid-19 daily incidence rates for nearly the entire 2020. Using machine learning, we demonstrated that UV radiation strongly associated with incidence rates, more so than mobility did, indicating that UV is a key seasonality indicator for Covid-19, irrespective of the initial conditions of the epidemic. Our findings can inform the implementation of public health emergency measures, partly based on seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as the pandemic unfolds into 2021.

scholarly journals Fueling the Covid-19 pandemic: summer school holidays and incidence rates in German districts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Plümper ◽  
Eric Neumayer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Summer School ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Holiday Period ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities

AbstractBackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.

scholarly journals Surgical Site Infection Trend Analysis Following Abdominal Hysterectomy, National Healthcare Safety Network, 2009–2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s396-s397
Author(s):  
Qunna Li ◽  
Minn Soe ◽  
Allan Nkwata ◽  
Victoria Russo ◽  
Margaret Dudeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Primary Closure ◽  
Abdominal Hysterectomy ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
Hospital Inpatient ◽  
Quality Reporting ◽  
Reporting Requirement

Background: Surveillance data for surgical site infections (SSIs) following abdominal hysterectomy (HYST) have been reported to the CDC NHSN since 2005. Beginning in 2012, HYST SSI surveillance coverage expanded substantially as a result of a CMS mandatory reporting requirement as part of the Hospital Inpatient Quality Reporting Program. A trend analysis of HYST SSI using data submitted to the NHSN has not been previously reported. To estimate the overall trend of HYST SSI incidence rates, we analyzed data reported from acute-care hospitals with surgery performed between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018. Methods: We analyzed inpatient adult HYST procedures with primary closure resulting deep incisional primary and organ-space SSIs detected during the same hospitalization or rehospitalization to the same hospital. SSIs reported as infection present at time of surgery (PATOS) were included in the analysis. Due to the surveillance definition changes for primary closure in 2013 and 2015, these were tested separately as interruptions to HYST SSI outcome using an interrupted time-series model with a mixed-effects logistic regression. Because the previously described changes were not significantly associated with changes in HYST SSI risk, mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate the annual change in the log odds of HYST SSI. The estimates were adjusted for the following covariates: hospital bed size, general anesthesia, scope, ASA score, wound classification, medical school affiliation type, procedure duration and age. Results: The number of hospitals and procedures reported to NHSN for HYST increased and then stabilized after 2012 (Table 1). The unadjusted annual SSI incidence rates ranged from 0.60% to 0.81%. Based on the model, we estimate a 2.58% decrease in the odds of having a HYST SSI annually after controlling for variables mentioned above (Table 2). Conclusions: The volume of hospitals and procedures for HYST reported to NHSN increased substantially because of the CMS reporting requirement implemented in 2012. The overall adjusted HYST SSI odds ratio decreased annually over 2009–2018, which indicates progress in preventing HYST SSIs.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

scholarly journals Evaluation of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Effectiveness in Ghana (TyVEGHA) Using a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Phase IV Trial: Trial Design and Population Baseline Characteristics

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Andrea Haekyung Haselbeck ◽  
Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse ◽  
Juyeon Park ◽  
Malick M. Gibani ◽  
Ligia María Cruz Espinoza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Blood Culture ◽  
Typhoid Fever ◽  
Conjugate Vaccine ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Health Programs ◽  
Public Health Programs ◽  
High Burden ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Cluster Randomized

Typhoid fever remains a significant health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, with incidence rates of >100 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation. Despite the prequalification of safe and effective typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV), some uncertainties remain around future demand. Real-life effectiveness data, which inform public health programs on the impact of TCVs in reducing typhoid-related mortality and morbidity, from an African setting may help encourage the introduction of TCVs in high-burden settings. Here, we describe a cluster-randomized trial to investigate population-level protection of TYPBAR-TCV®, a Vi-polysaccharide conjugated to a tetanus-toxoid protein carrier (Vi-TT) against blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever, and the synthesis of health economic evidence to inform policy decisions. A total of 80 geographically distinct clusters are delineated within the Agogo district of the Asante Akim region in Ghana. Clusters are randomized to the intervention arm receiving Vi-TT or a control arm receiving the meningococcal A conjugate vaccine. The primary study endpoint is the total protection of Vi-TT against blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Total, direct, and indirect protection are measured as secondary outcomes. Blood-culture-based enhanced surveillance enables the estimation of incidence rates in the intervention and control clusters. Evaluation of the real-world impact of TCVs and evidence synthesis improve the uptake of prequalified/licensed safe and effective typhoid vaccines in public health programs of high burden settings. This trial is registered at the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, accessible at Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (ID: PACTR202011804563392).

scholarly journals An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengxue Zhong ◽  
Li Xu ◽  
Ho-Lan Peng ◽  
Samantha Tam ◽  
Li Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Human Papillomavirus ◽  
Oropharyngeal Cancer ◽  
Hpv Vaccine ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life ◽  
The U.S

AbstractIn 2017, 46,157 and 3,127 new oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) cases were reported in the U.S. and Texas, respectively. About 70% of OPC were attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV). However, only 51% of U.S. and 43.5% of Texas adolescents have completed the HPV vaccine series. Therefore, modeling the demographic dynamics and transmission of HPV and OPC progression is needed for accurate estimation of the economic and epidemiological impacts of HPV vaccine in a geographic area. An age-structured population dynamic model was developed for the U.S. state of Texas. With Texas-specific model parameters calibrated, this model described the dynamics of HPV-associated OPC in Texas. Parameters for the Year 2010 were used as the initial values, and the prediction for Year 2012 was compared with the real age-specific incidence rates in 23 age groups for model validation. The validated model was applied to predict 100-year age-adjusted incidence rates. The public health benefits of HPV vaccine uptake were evaluated by computer simulation. Compared with current vaccination program, increasing vaccine uptake rates by 50% would decrease the cumulative cases by 4403, within 100 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this strategy was $94,518 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Increasing the vaccine uptake rate by 50% can: (i) reduce the incidence rates of OPC among both males and females; (ii) improve the quality-adjusted life years for both males and females; (iii) be cost-effective and has the potential to provide tremendous public health benefits in Texas.

scholarly journals Gastrointestinal infections caused by consumption of raw drinking milk in England & Wales, 1992–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Adams ◽  
L. Byrne ◽  
J. Edge ◽  
A. Hoban ◽  
C. Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Gastrointestinal Infections ◽  
Food Standards ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Drinking Milk ◽  
Intestinal Infectious Disease

Abstract Systematic, national surveillance of outbreaks of intestinal infectious disease has been undertaken by Public Health England (PHE) since 1992. Between 1992 and 2002, there were 19 outbreaks linked to raw drinking milk (RDM) or products made using raw milk, involving 229 people; 36 of these were hospitalised. There followed an eleven-year period (2003–2013) where no outbreaks linked to RDM were reported. However, since 2014 seven outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157:H7 (n = 3) or Campylobacter jejuni (n = 4) caused by contaminated RDM were investigated and reported. Between 2014 and 2017, there were 114 cases, five reported hospitalisations and one death. The data presented within this review indicated that the risk of RDM has increased since 2014. Despite the labelling requirements and recommendations that children should not consume RDM, almost a third of outbreak cases were children. In addition, there has been an increase in consumer popularity and in registered RDM producers in the UK. The Food Standards Agency (FSA) continue to provide advice on RDM to consumers and have recently made additional recommendations to enhance existing controls around registration and hygiene of RDM producers.

PP58 The Alliance Between Health Technology Assessment And Public Health In National Screening Policies

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (S1) ◽  
pp. 48-48
Author(s):  
Leonor Varela-Lema ◽  
Janet Puñal-Riobóo ◽  
Paula Cantero-Muñoz ◽  
Maria José Faraldo-Vallés
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Newborn Screening ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Screening Programs

IntroductionDecision making regarding national population-based prenatal and newborn screening policies is recognized to be highly challenging. This paper aims to describe the formalized collaboration that has been established between the Spanish National Public Health Screening Advisory Committee (PHSAC) and the Spanish Network of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies to support the development of evidence- and consensus-based recommendations to support this process.MethodsIn-depth description and analysis of the strategic and methodological processes that have been implemented within the Spanish National Health System prenatal and newborn screening frameworks, with special emphasis on the role, actions, and responsibilities of HTA agencies.ResultsThe role of HTA agencies is threefold: (i) support the PHSAC by providing evidence on safety, effectiveness and cost/effectiveness of the screening tests/strategies, as well as contextualized information regarding costs, organizational, social, legal and ethical issues; (ii) collaborate with the PHSAC in the development of formal evidence- and consensus-based recommendations for defining population screening programs, when required; (iii) analyze real-world data that is generated by piloted programs. This paper will provide real-life examples of how these processes were implemented in practice, with a special focus on the development of the non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) policy. Recommendations for NIPT were developed by a multidisciplinary group based on the European network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) rapid assessment report and the predictive models that were built using national statistics and other contextualized data.ConclusionsThe current work represents an innovative approach for prenatal and newborn screening policymaking, which are commonly difficult to evaluate due to the low quality of evidence and the confounding public health issues. The paper raises awareness regarding the importance of joint collaborations in areas where evidence is commonly insufficient for decision making.

Some Issues of Morbidity with Temporary Incapacity for Work in the Ural Federal District

2021 ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
AS Shastin ◽  
VG Gazimova ◽  
OL Malykh ◽  
TS Ustyugova ◽  
TM Tsepilova
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Common ◽  
Working Age Population

Introduction: In the context of a decreasing size of the working-age population, monitoring of the health status and disease incidence in this cohort shall be one of the most important tasks of public and occupational health professionals. Health risk management for the working population in the Russian Federation requires complete and reliable data on its morbidity, especially in view of the fact that its average age demonstrates a stable growth. It is, therefore, crucial to have precise and consistent information about the morbidity of the working-age population. Objective: The study aimed to assess incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: We reviewed data on disease incidence rates published by the Federal State Statistics Service in the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information, Section 15.12, Causes of Temporary Disability, and Section 2.9.I.4, Federal Project for Public Health Promotion. The constituent entities under study were ranked according to the number of cases and days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers and E.L. Notkin scale was used to determine grade the incidence. The statistical analysis was performed using STATISTICA 10 software. Long-term average values of certain indicators, median values, standard deviation (σ) and coefficients of variation were estimated. The difference in the indices was assessed using the Mann-Whitney test. Results: Compared to 2010, incidence rates of diseases with temporary incapacity for work in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District in 2019 demonstrated a significant decline. The sharp drop was observed in 2015. We also established that the Common Interdepartmental System of Statistical Information contains contradictory information on disease incidence. Conclusion: It is expedient to consider the issue of revising guidelines for organization of federal statistical monitoring of morbidity with temporary incapacity for work and to include this indicator in the system of public health monitoring.

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